Was Merkel's Surprising "Defeat" Merely A Gambit For A German Referendum?

As details from Thursday's European Memorandum of Understanding, which has all the binding power of a 'highly confident letter' issued by a third tier investment bank, continue to be non-existent, the questions, and conditions, are accumulating fast. While the ESM passed with a solid majority in both the lower and upper houses of German parliament yesterday, its fate is now in the hands of the German constitutional court which as reported previously has requested extra time to study the bailout plan, before it gives the all clear for a presidential signature. Sound familiar? And barely did the ESM pass the ratification vote, before lawsuits alleging its unconstitutionality start pouring in. But probably more importantly, Focus magazine reported overnight that the first clear condition from Germany will be the enactment of a Financial transaction tax for all countries where the ESM would be operational in order to minimize the burden on German taxpayers. In other words, banks would effectively pool their profits, in order to fund the bailout of other banks (or their own). In retrospect, it does not sound like a bad idea. It may even pass the recently conceived "fairness doctrine" of the Great June Socialist Revolution. Most importantly, however, it appears that events over the past week may have been merely a gambit for something that Schauble and Weidmann have already hinted at: a popular referendum that decides the fate of Europe once and for all, washing Merkel's hands and letting the people decide if they want the European experiment to continue or not.

Journey To The Economic Center Of The World

The most recent decade of 2000 to 2010 has seen the fastest rate of change in the global economic balance in history. During this period, a recent McKinsey research article notes, the world's economic center of gravity has shifted by about 140km per year - about 30% faster than in the period after World War II when global GDP shifted from Europe to North America. The world’s center of economic gravity has changed over past centuries. But since the mid-1980s, the pace of that shift—from the United States and Europe toward Asia— has been increasing dramatically as China is urbanizing on 100 times the scale of Britain in the 18th century and at more than 10 times the speed. One has to wonder what the difference would be were it not for the flawed economic model adopted since the 1980s that relied on debt and asset price inflation to drive demand (as opposed to wage growth linked to productivity growth).

Brian Sack's Window Dressing Farewell Gift To Wall Street

UPDATE: Added 'The Post-FOMC Window-Dressing Roadmap' - or high-beta-rescue...
Stocks opened around 2% gap higher this morning after the late-night headlines from Europe made many think that the tooth-fairy and Santa are real once again. S&P 500 e-mini futures saw some selling into the open but then stabilized amid a very narrow range for much of the rest of the day - leaking higher on low volume-driven short-covering. The news from Germany of ESM ratification was greeted with absolutely no price movement as an indication of just how insane things are but the need to drive stocks up in the last few minutes was crazy. Into the close, volume exploded as ES rose 10pts in minutes from absolutely nowhere. Average trade size was very heavy during this period and delta skewed notably to block selling into the ramp though it is never that obvious. ES closed above its 50DMA back to its highest since 5/8. Everyone enjoyed the day's window-dressing escapades aside from JPM which dropped 3% from its opening levels and closed in the red. The main takeaway is that most risk assets recovered to last week's highs but stocks turned the amplifier of insanity to 11 and pushed back to near two-month highs not to be outdone into quarter-end (wink wink).

The Supreme Court And Natural Law

I won a bet today.
A few weeks ago I wagered with a coworker that the United States Supreme Court would uphold the Affordable Care Act otherwise known as Obamacare.  He reasoned that the federal government has no authority under the Constitution to force an individual to purchase a product from a private company.  My reasoning was much simpler.  Because the Supreme Court is a functioning arm of the state, it will do nothing to stunt Leviathan’s growth.  The fact that the Court declared no federal law unconstitutional from 1937 to 1995—from the tail end of the New Deal through Lyndon Johnson’s Great Society—should have been proof enough.  He naively believed in the impartialness of politically-appointed judges.  For the first time he saw that those nine individuals are nothing more than politicians with an allegiance to state supremacy.
It was a tough but valuable lesson to learn.

Why The Rise Of SkyNet Leads To Automatic Unemployment For The People

With so much hollow and pointless discussion over the past week, month and year over such fundamentally trivial things as who will inject more money faster, who will be bailed out first, who will go back to their own currency before everyone else, it is easy to forget that reality actually matters. And the reality is not who has their CTRL-P macro stuck, but what does the future of the world truly hold when one sidesteps such idiotic flights of fancy that debt may be cured with more debt. In order to completely change the topic from what has become trivial and generic - i.e., the various encroaching forms of central planning: Fed, SCOTUS, G-8 through G-20; European Finance Ministers, and now, with the ESM passing German parliament, the German Constitutional Court, we focus on something few have discussed, yet all have a morbid fascination with: Robots... And China. And why the combination of the two just may be the most dangerous thing for China's several hundred million strong migrant labor force, which, on the margin may just be the deciding factor defining the engine of global growth for the next decade. Oh, and did we mention global structural unemployment which will only get worse as increasing automation leaves more and more millions collecting their 99 weeks of extended unemployment benefits.

The Face of “Don’t Ask Questions Of The Government”

Journalism is about asking questions that corporations, governments and establishments don’t want to answer. It’s about reporting the full-story, no matter how many toes you step on. It’s about opening up power to real scrutiny. And that is something that the propagandists in big media are often incapable of — which of course is why big media is slowly dying. We need to know the depth and width of Fast and Furious and the programs which preceded it: how was it authorised, how was it designed, how did it go wrong, who was to blame for it going wrong. We need to know whether or not the widely-spread allegation that the Obama administration has sold guns directly to Los Zetas is true. We need to know whether or not El Chapo and the Sinaloa Cartel are working with the DEA and the Mexican government. (Both of these allegations are widely accepted as fact in Mexico). We need to know why Obama has chosen to continue the failed drug war, even in spite of overwhelming evidence that the illegality of drugs is the very thing that empowers the criminal cartels, and in spite of the fact that Obama is a former drug user.

A Fool And His Money Are Easily Parted

Eric De Groot at Eric De Groot - 35 minutes ago

Jim is absolutely right. The public's sole expectation of "save me" over all other considerations makes infinite liquidity the only other guarantee other than death, taxes and maybe continued erosion of privacy by technology for millions of Americans, Europeans, Japanese, Asians, etc. Unfortunately, the constant ebb and flow of capital and headline misdirection means a substantial number of... [[ This is a content summary only. Visit my website for full links, other content, and more! ]] 

KWN Markets and Metals Wrap

Trader Dan at Trader Dan's Market Views - 52 minutes ago

Please click on the following link to listen in to my regular weekly radio interview with Eric King on the King World News Markets and Metals Wrap. *http://tinyurl.com/76as9hh* 

Many Markets In Europe That Are Lower Than They Were At The Low In March 2009

Admin at Marc Faber Blog - 53 minutes ago

I agree Europe is a complete disaster, dysfunctional and it is going to get worse, not better, but in the meantime you have many markets in Europe that are lower than they were at the low in March 2009. So all I am saying is yes I know that Europe is in a bad shape, but there are some good companies in Europe that have dividend yields of say 7% and so I am buying some of these companies. I am not enthusiastic about the economic outlook of Europe. - *in ET* *Marc Faber is an international investor known for his uncanny predictions of the stock market and futures markets around the wo... more » 

Hooray! Euro is saved ... for the 483rd time!

Eric De Groot at Eric De Groot - 4 hours ago

Kicking the can down the down with perpetual bailouts is the only easy solution. That is, until voters get pissed and change leadership. The Euro has been bailed out so many times that investors are being conditioned to expect them at regular intervals. What happens if they can't? That my friends is a dangerous setup. Headline: Hooray! Euro is saved ... for the 483rd time! Good news... [[ This is a content summary only. Visit my website for full links, other content, and more! ]] 

People Need To Stop Spending Money They Don’t Have

Admin at Jim Rogers Blog - 10 hours ago

Just because now you have a way to get them (the banks) to borrow even more money, this is not solving the problem, this is making the problem worse. People need to stop spending money they don’t have. The solution to too much debt is not more debt. All this little agreement does is give them (banks) a chance to have even more debt for a while longer. *Jim Rogers is an author, financial commentator and successful international investor. He has been frequently featured in Time, The New York Times, Barron’s, Forbes, Fortune, The Wall Street Journal, The Financial Times and is a regular... more » 

Hedge Funds Continue to Pummel Silver - Until Today

Trader Dan at Trader Dan's Market Views - 11 hours ago

If you want to talk about how utterly insane our markets have become and how schizophrenic the trading action has mutated into, look no further than the last two days of trading this very week. On Thursday, silver was mauled by hedge fund selling tied to both long liquidation and brand new fresh short selling. The result? Silver hit a 52 week low! One day later - it rockets to close 5% higher in a single day. This is the type of madness that has been unleashed by Central Bank interference into the market place which is the SOLE CAUSE of this volatility. I could give example after ... more »

Germany Blinks a bit/ESM to be modified/No real change in Italian or Spanish bond yields

Harvey Organ at Harvey Organ's - The Daily Gold and Silver Report - 13 hours ago

Good morning Ladies and Gentlemen: Gold closed up today by $41,00 to $1598.00.  Silver also joined the party up 1.17 to $27.49 Yesterday a lot happened with respect to Europe which will be hugely bullish for gold.  Basically Germany blinked a bit as they agreed to modify the ESM to directly loan to the troubled banks and to remove the seniority of the ESM.  These terms must be re ratified and I

Weekend Reading: You Are Called To a Great Undertaking

Coincidences Become More Obvious When Money Is Followed

Eric De Groot at Eric De Groot - 16 hours ago

The invisible hand has been leaning on the bond market since mid May 2012. This was suggested by a cluster of DI readings below -60% (chart 1). Perhaps the timing of this setup relative to the unexpected events of the EU summit is merely a coincidence. Granted, the natural ebb and flow within all markets allows for concentration of funds without subversive means. In an era... [[ This is a content summary only. Visit my website for full links, other content, and more! ]]

We The Sheeplez... is intended to reflect excellence in effort and content. Donations will help maintain this goal and defray the operational costs. Paypal, a leading provider of secure online money transfers, will handle the donations. Thank you for your contribution.

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Gold Daily and Silver Weekly Charts - End of Quarter Rally After Steady Price Capping

SP 500 and NDX Futures Daily Charts - End of Quarter And First Half 0f 2012

Consumer Expectations Trend Break Bullish For Gold

Eric De Groot at Eric De Groot - 21 hours ago

Did you miss it? Consumer expectations (CE) broke it power up trend of 2011. This break increases the probability of lower consumer expectation numbers in the future. Big deal, right? Not so fast. The correlation between CE and gold has a strong inverse relationship. During periods of economic strife, the inverse correlation approaches -0.70. In layman's terms, the higher consumer... [[ This is a content summary only. Visit my website for full links, other content, and more! ]]

In The News Today

June 29, 2012, at 1:33 pm
by Jim Sinclair

When you are not yourself, who are you? –Unknown






My Dear Friends,

The most important event of today in Europe was Mrs. Merkel’s transformation from "over my dead body" to "bowing to the pressure of markets," demonstrating what every politician will eventually do.
Please note Hollande’s recent role in EU finance. Expect the same thing at the Fed.
QE will go to infinity. The price of gold will meet Alf’s expectations.
Enjoy your weekend.
Respectfully,
Jim




Jim Sinclair’s Commentary
Please watch this video to the end and never give in to the manipulators. You and I must fight them to the end in order to win BIG. We will.




Jim Sinclair’s Commentary

Welcome to the new type of war.

Russia ‘retains right’ to pre-emptive strike on missile shield Published: 03 May, 2012, 13:49
Edited: 08 May, 2012, 03:48
Russia is ready for a pre-emptive strike on European missile defense systems if the US refuses dialogue, stated Russia’s senior military official. Washington has responded by saying it doesn’t rule out giving Russia legally binding guarantees on ABM.
“Russia is constantly speaking about guarantees of ABM systems not targeting it, but we think we need to come to cooperation. We provide guarantees after we start cooperating,” Ellen Tauscher, US Special Envoy for Strategic Stability and Missile Defense, told reporters at the end of the first day of the Moscow ABM conference.
Earlier on Thursday Russia’s Chief of General Staff Nikolay Makarov stated that Russia might consider a pre-emptive strike an option in certain circumstances.
“Considering the destabilizing nature of the [American] ABM system, namely the creation of an illusion of inflicting a disarming [nuclear] strike with impunity, a decision on pre-emptive deployment of assault weapons could be taken when the situation gets harder,” Makarov said.
Among other measures, Russia has already promised to deploy short-range Iskander missiles in the Kaliningrad Region if NATO fails to reach agreement with it on missile defense.
More…




Jim Sinclair’s Commentary

Your kids should learn Mandarin so they can speak to their future bosses.

The international settlement use of the dollar is waning constantly.

China to set up a trial zone for yuan convertibility 29 June 2012 Last updated at 10:09 ET
China is to set up a special business zone to experiment with the yuan’s convertibility, the latest step in its moves to open up its capital markets.
The Qianhai zone will be established in the southern city of Shenzhen, just across the border from Hong Kong.
Beijing has been seeking to open up its capital markets to try to trigger a fresh wave of economic growth.
It has also been pushing for a more global role for its currency.
Zhang Xiaoqiang, vice chairman of China’s National Development and Reform Commission, the state planning agency, said: "The country’s policy is to gradually open up its capital account and realise the full convertibility of the yuan.
"Qianhai, as the first experimental zone of the country’s modern service industry, should be a pioneer of that."
The zone will now be established over the next eight years, with construction set to start in 2013.
More…




Jim Sinclair’s Commentary

This is certainly good news for gold, but bad news for a naked short.

Gold bugs eye possible support from a US capital adequacy rule change; ‘May be biggest event in gold market since US dropped gold standard’ Posted in News June 28, 2012 – 10:50am, David Chaston
US authorities have recently called for comment on a rule change that may impact the gold market.
The US Treasury, Federal Reserve and the FDIC have jointly sought comment on changing some capital adequacy rules for when an institution holds gold in its own vaults or in another’s vaults.
According to the draft documents released, when gold is currently held as an asset, it is risk weighted at 15% – that is, a 15% haircut is taken on its current value for capital adequacy calculations. (See page 86 of the attached Federal Reserve document.)
However, in this same document, they are proposing that there be no (zero) discount.
That would then put gold on the same basis as cash.
217.131 Mechanics for Calculating Total Wholesale and Retail Risk-Weighted Assets.
(i) A bank holding company or savings and loan holding company may assign a riskweighted asset amount of zero to cash owned and held in all offices of subsidiary depository institutions or in transit; and for gold bullion held in a subsidiary depository institution’s own vaults, or held in another depository institution’s vaults on an allocated basis, to the extent the gold bullion assets are offset by gold bullion liabilities.
This seems an adventurous move. Over the past five years, the US$ value of gold has moved more than +/-50% from its average over that time, and is currently sitting -20% below its high in that same period. In cash terms, there certainly has been market price risk.
More…




Jim Sinclair’s Commentary

I believe that this dissertation sustains our June 28th date.

The CRB Just Formed a Final Three Year Cycle Low Friday June 29, 2012 12:32
I think it’s clear by the action in the dollar index this morning and the response by risk assets in general, that the bottom I have been looking for is here. 



Today will be the first day in a commodity rally that should last roughly 2 years topping in mid-to-late 2014 when the dollar puts in its next three year cycle low.
The next two or three weeks should produce an exceptionally violent rally from extreme oversold conditions followed by a consolidation period as the dollar bounces weakly out of its intermediate bottom and rolls over quickly signaling that its three year cycle has topped.


The last two three year cycle lows in 2006 and 2009 generated a 20% and 32% rally during the initial move out of their final low.
More…

 

Jim’s Mailbox

June 29, 2012, at 1:30 pm
by Jim Sinclair

Jim,
Remember you said the end of June 2012 was important?
Please take a look at this:
CIGA Sam

Gulf sources report US, Gulf armies on high alert pending Syria action  DEBKAfile June 28, 2012, 10:17 AM (GMT+02:00)
This military alert is reported Thursday by various Gulf sources, including the US military, pending a strike against Syria in two days. This report, according to which NATO forces are about to move to Turkey, is not  confirmed by any official source.  US forces in the Gulf are apparently on forward positions and high alert, as are Saudi Special Forces and National Guard. Israel too is reported in mobilization. Turkish Prime Minister Tayyip Erdogan is said to be preparing an extraordinary parliament session to authorize Syria intervention.
The same unconfirmed sources cite Saturday as the day of the NATO attack, when in Geneva, the UN Action Group hold its first meeting to approve a transitional unity government in Damascus. The five UN Security Council powers, the EU and Arab League are represented, but not Iran or Saudi Arabia.
More…



Coincidences Become More Obvious When Money Is Followed CIGA Eric
The invisible hand has been leaning on the bond market since mid May 2012.  This was suggested by a cluster of DI readings below -60% (chart 1).  Perhaps the timing of this setup relative to the unexpected events of the EU summit is merely a coincidence.  Granted, the natural ebb and flow within all markets allows for concentration of funds without subversive means.  In an era where everyone but the public has unrestricted access to the cookie jar of free money, such coincidences are hard to ignore.
Either way, the bond market’s concentration of funds has yet to panic bond traders.  That could soon change with Merkel’s apparent capitulation from Not as long as I live to How Italy and Spain Defeated Merkel at EU Summit this week.  Her unexpected, dare I say well-orchestrated change of stance could become the long awaited catalyst for the summer’s risk-off to risk-on transfer.  Besides, nothing says robust economy ahead of critical election better than surging stocks, commodities, precious metals, bond yields, etc.
The previous two bearish setups in bonds preceded moderate corrections of price and time.
Chart 1: US Treasury Bond 20YR+ (TLT) And US Treasury Bond Diffusion Index (DI)
Massive inflows into the gold, silver, copper, crude oil, etc. fits nicely with the above reasoning and coincidences (chart 2 and table 1).
Chart 2: Gold London P.M Fixed and Gold Diffusion Index (DI)
The +/- column shows the acceleration (+) or deceleration (-) of the money flows.  Notice a big surge into the swiss franc and euro ahead of the EU summit.
Table 1: COT Money Flow Table

Enjoy your weekend and remember things are rarely what they seem.

Headline: U.S. Treasury Bonds Sell Off, but Still Best Quarter Since 3Q 2011
The latest measures to combat the euro zone’s debt crisis brightened the mood in financial markets Friday, sparking a broad selloff in safe-haven Treasury bonds, German bunds and U.K. gilts. The flight out of bonds and into stocks and commodities provided some relief for European policy makers confronting mounting market pressure to act to contain the crisis. For now, investors welcomed the initiatives out of the two-day European Union summit as a signal that policy makers are making progress in tackling the problems which reduced the threat of a break-up of the monetary union. A highlight of the deal is that EU policy makers decided to use bailout funds to directly recapitalize Spanish banks, thus relieving the debt burden over the shoulder of Madrid. Another important development is a plan to make the European Central Bank as sole supervisor of the euro zone’s banking system, a key step toward a banking union. While some analysts caution that these steps are not the ultimate solution to the crisis, for now, signs of policy makers making progress to address the debt crisis are welcomed by investors. Some traders also noted that expectations on the EU outcome had been low, as partly reflected in the rally in Treasury bonds Thursday, so any positive steps would give risky assets a boost at least in the short term. "Incremental movements toward resolution of the European problems are being viewed very positively by all risk markets since everyone knows there is no magic bullet and cannot be solved all at once," said Alan De Rose, head Treasury trader at Oppenheimer and Co. Inc. New York. In late-afternoon trade, the benchmark 10-year Treasury note was 21/32 lower to yield 1.648%. The 30-year bond was the biggest loser, with its price falling by 1 29/32 to yield 2.755%. Bond prices move inversely to their yields.
Source: online.wsj.com
More…




Consumer Expectations Trend Break Bullish For Gold
CIGA Eric
Did you miss it? Consumer expectations (CE) broke it power up trend of 2011. This break increases the probability of lower consumer expectation numbers in the future. Big deal, right? Not so fast.
The correlation between CE and gold has a strong inverse relationship. During periods of economic strife, the inverse correlation approaches -0.70. In layman’s terms, the higher consumer confidence climbs, the greater the probability that gold will fall, vice versa.
Today’s final release of consumer expectations breaks the power up trend established in 2011. This break marked by the blue arrow increases the probability of falling consumer expectations and higher gold in the near future.

Chart: University of Michigan Consumer Expectations (CE) and Gold: A Correlation Study



Headline: June US consumer sentiment drops to six-month low
NEW YORK, June 29 (Reuters) – U.S. consumer sentiment dropped to a six-month low in June as Americans’ view of the economy soured, a survey released on Friday showed. The Thomson Reuters/University of Michigan’s final reading on the overall index on consumer sentiment fell to 73.2 in June from 79.3 in May. It was the lowest level since December and fell short of economists’ expectations for the index to hold at the same level as June’s preliminary reading of 74.1. The deterioration in consumers’ attitudes came mostly from households with incomes above $75,000; sentiment among lower-income households was little changed, according to the survey. "While the overall level of consumer sentiment is substantially above last summer’s low — which would normally indicate a growth slowdown, not a downturn — the buying plans of upper-income households have also sharply declined," survey director Richard Curtin said in a statement. "Since these households account for a large share of total spending, if the declines continue in the months ahead, it could have a substantial impact on total spending."
Source: reuters.com
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