Tuesday, June 12, 2012


The Most Serious Political And Economic Situation The West Has Ever Faced


Jim,

While there has been much discussion about China remaining on the Iran oil sanctions list while seven other countries have been taken off, I believe Japan and the PIIGS still remain on the list. I believe Iran is still providing very generous vendor financing on its oil, i.e. 45-60 days from the day of shipment.
The next round of the Greek elections is this Sunday and the oil sanctions go into effect on 07/01. The US and the EU are playing a very high-level game of poker with Iranian oil which some of their allies (Japan and the PIIGS) desperately need and which Saudi Arabia cannot produce. With China signaling that it will not blink, Iran will not blink. Have to believe the US and the EU will have to blink to keep the economies of the PIIGS and Japan from collapsing due to lack of oil. I think this is another nail in the end of the petro dollar coffin and very Au and Ag positive.
Any thoughts?
Craig

Craig,

This is the most serious political and economic situation the West has ever faced all at one time.
Don’t forget Syria pits us against Russia in arms. The West wants to bomb Syria so bad you can hear the explosions already.
My feeling is simply that the end is not near, but it is here. There is no going back to good old times. The music has stopped and the chairs are full. The West is standing politically and economically right here and right now.
Regards,
Jim


LISTEN NOW – Stock Market is a Farce, We’re at the End Game, Gold, Miners & More – Bill Fleckenstein

Bill Fleckenstein: President of Fleckenstein Capital – Bill also writes a popular column ‘Contrarian Chronicles’ for MSN Money as well as the daily Market Rap column for his Web site at Fleckenstein Capital. He is often quoted in both national and international media. Bill has appeared at one time or another in virtually all financial media including Bloomberg, CNBC, The New York Times, MSN, Marketwatch, Barron’s and more. Bill is a highly sought after speaker, successful author of “Greenspan’s Bubbles” and has been in the financial sector for over 25 years.
LISTEN NOW @ KingWorldNews.com



Report from Greece: Limited Capital Controls Implemented

from John Galt FLA:
The reports of capital controls being implemented should Greece leave the Eurozone have been flying throughout the internet over the last twenty-four hours, leaving many to wonder if the European Union is about to descend into the status of a large latte sipping banana republic. Switzerland’s central bank (SCB) is already rumored to have a plan in place to freeze all incoming funds at their borders and penalize anyone attempting to convert deteriorating Euros into Swiss Francs along with currency exchange controls (See ZeroHedge, Bruce Krasting’s May 28th article – Capital Controls Coming to Greece and Switzerland). The problem with this approach is the large underground economy which it creates and unfortunately for the nation of Greece, that has already begun.
The concerns of the ongoing bank run by depositors in Greek banks have created the basis for a second leg of the domestic financial crisis which will collapse the system if the elections result in a conflict with the Troika and ECB regarding aid to the Greek financial system and potential default.
Read More @ JohnGaltFLA.com



Did Fitch Just End Europe's Hope For LTRO3?

While it will come as no surprise to ZeroHedge readers (as we discussed why LTRO3 is not coming here and here), it would appear that the ability to turn worthless assets into useful liquidity via a raft of collateralized lending operations with the ECB is at an end. As Fitch's, MD of financial institutions Bridget Gandy just confirmed: "Some of the European banks are becoming short on collateral to pledge with the ECB, unless they can delever and sell some of their assets, which is difficult." Of course this means the banks that need the facilities the most are now in dire need to sell assets and delever further exaggerating the vicious circle in Europe's symbiotic banking-sovereign relationship. Without postable collateral, there can be no more help from the ECB to the banks and thus any further banking system help will further subordinate the sovereign (hence our call to swap into non-local law bonds) since it will necessarily need to be funneled through them (a la Spain). Once more the ball ends up in Bernanke's lap.


ALERT: EU Martial Law Coming? AP Reports “Movement of money, people can be limited”

from AP:
The European Commission has been providing legal advice to others who are considering possible scenarios should Greece leave the euro, a European Union spokesman said.
Olivier Bailly said Tuesday that, legally, limits could be imposed on movement of people and money across national borders within the EU if it’s necessary to protect public order or public security — but not on economic grounds.
Some people are working on scenarios,” he said, but refused to confirm or identify which organizations and people were working on them.
Source @ AP


On Debt Ceilings, Fiscal Cliffs, And Krugman's Deficit Debacle

With all the buzz about the 'Fiscal Cliff' – that toxic combination of tax increases and spending cuts due to take hold in a few months – the subject of ongoing Federal budget deficits has fallen by the wayside.  ConvergEx's Nic Colas believes that’s a temporary phenomenon, for Congress will have to hammer out agreements to raise the debt ceiling right alongside its negotiations over the 'Cliff' items.  His back-of-the-envelope attempt to quantify how much a multi-year debt limit increase would run to take this burdensome legislative issue off the Congressional docket for 5, 10 or even 20 years is worrisome at best with a $3.4 trillion for the 5-year runway, but this assumes a high level of incremental taxation. The number could be as high as $4.5 trillion.  As for the longer time horizon debt runways, think in terms of an incremental $6.5 -9.5 billion for a 10 and 20 year horizon. And without significant changes to taxes and/or spending, more.  Much more. We cannot help but think about Paul Krugman as we ponder these numbers.  His recent book, End this Depression Now, proposes that “A quick, strong recovery is just one step away, if our leaders can find the intellectual clarity and political will to end this depression now.”  This “One step” is deficit spending that is orders of magnitude greater than anything spent already.  We have no idea if he really believes any of this, since it is politically impossible, but he does have a Nobel (though so did the guys at LTCM).

 

Biderman On Central Banks: "In The End, They Will Get What They Deserve"

"We live in interesting times" is the understated introduction to one of Charles Biderman (of TrimTabs) more concerning and stunned rants. With the value of all stocks still around double the 2009 lows yet today's incomes are barely growing, and realistically - with all the headwinds we face - there is no hope for rapid growth in wages & salaries anytime soon, the avuncular analyst feels the need to warn all that "stock prices are due to plunge". Following a little stock market history, Charles notes that while wages and salaries in the US have quadrupled over the past 30 years, the value of all US stocks has risen 18 times. In 1982, stocks relative to wages & salaries were 0.6-to-1 and now the ratio is north of 2.6-to-1. This is explained by an interesting discussion of the excess wage growth over spending argument (once basic human needs are met - and a bigger house) which prompts a brief interlude on wages & salaries as 'the' trim-tab (marginal mover) for stocks. Implicitly then, "How can stock markets be this high if the real economy is barely growing?" - the obvious answer is Central banks are tying to solve all the world's problems via the printing press and as the Bay-Area bad-boy notes, the central banks may be the largest market participant but they are not the only one and in the end "they will get what they deserve" as stocks drop to 2009 lows.




Ahead Of Tomorrow's Dimon Hearing, Presenting JP Morgan's 93.5% Historical Winning Trade Perfection

We are just about 16 hours away from Jamie Dimon's sworn testimony before the Senate Banking Committee, which even has the theatrical name: "A Breakdown in Risk Management: What Went Wrong at JPMorgan Chase?" Will anyone learn anything? Of course not: Jamie Dimon has been well-schooled in not disclosing critical trading information, and will certainly use the "proprietary position" and "more shareholder losses" excuse for any directed question asking how big the JPM CIO loss has become. Because while the hearing could have been productive, if indeed its purpose was to seek to prevent future massive losses of scale such as the suffered by the JPM prop trading unit and its hundreds of billions in CDS notional position, the last thing anyone will care about tomorrow is market efficiency and actual regulation. First and foremost: grandstanding and posturing, in the case of the politicians, and not disclosing anything, without saying too many "I don't recall"s in the case of Dimon. Which is why we have little hope to get anything out of tomorrow's formulaic 2 hours of largely meaningless droning. That said, considering we have already covered the topic of the JPM loss from a mechanistic standpoint more than any other media outlet, there is one more chart we would like to share with readers.



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Jamie Dimon's Complete Senate Testimony

Presenting JPMorgan's CEO Jamie Dimon's prepared remarks for tomorrow's debacle: The truth, the whole truth, and nothing but the totally unvarnished version of the truth that will fulfill Jamie Dimon's obligations to sit through a few hours of snide remarks, condescension, and bating. It does seem however that our initial perspective on this being a systemic risk hedge (i.e. a 'delta-hedged' senior tranche position as opposed to some easily managed and understood pairs trade) that rapidly grew out of control due to risk control inadequacies, is absolutely correct - though we suspect that is as close to the real truth anyone will ever get.



From Capital To Salary Control: France To Cap State-Owned Company Executive Pay

At this point there is no longer a point in commenting the daily insanity coming out of Europe. Central planning everywhere, in everything and for everyone.
  • FRANCE TO LIMIT EXECUTIVE PAY TO 20 TIMES LOWEST SALARY: FIGARO
  • FRANCE TO CURB PAY OF HEADS OF STATE-OWNED COS., FIGARO REPORTS
  • ECONOMY MINISTRY TO ANNOUNCE DECISION TOMORROW, FIGARO SAYS
Who will be affected:
  • FRENCH PAY CURB AT COS. WITH GOVT MAJORITY STAKE, FIGARO SAYS
So... all French banks soon to quite soon?


Spanish 10 yr bond yield rises to 6.71%/Italian 10 yr bond crosses the 6% barrier and closes at 6.17%.

Good evening Ladies and Gentlemen: The price of gold advanced today as the USA decided that risks were on and thus commodity prices rose as did all bourses once Europe was finished.  The price of gold finished the comex session at $16 at $1612.70 for a gain of $17.20  Silver advanced up 34 cents to $28.94.  The only news of critical importance comes from Europe where today the Spanish bond 10



"Why Would Politicians Allow The Free Market To Work And Expect To Be Re-elected?"

Between discussions of gold-backed debt issuance in Europe (from Rick Santelli) and why Europe's problem is not merely a banking crisis but far worse (with the need for large-scale default and deleveraging as opposed to constant political intervention to makes things worse - quoting our earlier note on Italy's insanity), Michael Pento asks, rhetorically we pre-supposed: "What is wrong with letting the free markets work here? Let's let what is going to happen, happen!" But Bill Griffeth provides the truth-quote-of-the-day (in a stunning kimono-opening for the CNBC-watching public at large) when he opines on Pento's question that "There is not a single politician who hopes to let the free markets work and be reelected."
Indeed - as Santelli adds: "You Nailed It!"



Markets Dead Cat Bounce Back To Friday's Close

Reasonable volume but decidedly low average trade size suggests today creep higher (and late-day acceleration) to Friday's closing level for stocks and bonds was more dead-cat-bounce (DCB) than BTFD. Treasuries sold off notably but in context merely retraced 50% of the high yield to low yield range from yesterday. S&P 500 e-mini futures (ES) also retraced perfectly 50% of the high to low swing of yesterday and closed almost to the tick at Friday's closing price. The USD drifted very gently lower today (-0.08% from Friday) on Cable strength (GBP) and the ubiquitous post European-close rally in EURUSD. The late-day AUD strength was probably the most notable (just what ES needed to get the correlation-driven asset up to unch for the week). Oil bounced ebulliently off its disaster lows of yesterday with WTI now only -0.8% from Friday as Gold, Silver, and Copper are up around 1.5% on the week (though gold lagged a little today). High beta equity outperformed - Materials, Industrials, and Financials up 1.5-1.8% as the major financials managed decent bounces - though all remain weaker than yesterday's open. Notably JPM's stock popped 3% while its CDS drifted wider still ahead of Dimon's denouement tomorrow. Equities outperformed credit today once again but IG and HY did rally/squeeze into the close - though remain cheap/wide to stock's exuberance. VIX stumbled about 1.5 vols but remains above 22% as cross-asset-class correlations fell notably into the European close but picked up in the afternoon as risk-assets in general led stocks higher - rather surprisingly syncing to fair-value at the close.



Bill Ackman Says Was Approached By PE Firm To LBO J.C. Penney Two Years Ago

An interesting tidbit from Pershing Square's just released quarterly letter: "When we first announced our stake in JCP, the stock price increased to the low $30s per share. Shortly after announcing our stake, we were approached by one of the most well-respected private equity funds in the world who expressed an interest in acquiring the company at a substantial premium. While we welcomed this fund as an owner of the stock, we had no interest in selling the company for a quick premium because we believe in the long-term value creation opportunity."


By Incentivizing Debt, We’ve Guaranteed Debt-Serfdom and Stagnation

by Charles Hugh Smith, Of Two Minds:
Incentivize debt and you create multiple overlapping death spirals.
Incentivize debt and you create multiple overlapping death spirals.
The incentives to take on debt are so ubiquitous that we underestimate their pernicious power to trigger self-destructive behavior. Want to go to college? Just borrow the money now, with no payments until you graduate. Need some consumerist-retail therapy to lift your sagging spirits? Just use plastic, and pay for the splurge later. Want to buy a house? Hey, the interest on that 30-year mortgage is all tax deductible. It’s crazy to pay taxes when there’s a big fat deduction for mortgage interest.
This same set of incentives works on a national and global scale, too. Put yourself in the shoes of the typical spineless, campaign-donation-dependent politico whose primary obsession in life is clinging to power via winning the next election. Every heavy-weight constituency is protesting any tiny reduction in their share of the Federal swag, so drastic cuts are out of the question. What’s the only painless option? Borrow $1.5 trillion every year to make sure the swag is fully funded and the restive constituencies are quieted for another election cycle.
Read More @ OfTwoMinds.com





DHS agencies to buy up to 7,000 new 5.56x45mm NATO ‘personal defense weapons’

by Madison Ruppert, Activist Post
The behemoth Department of Homeland Security (DHS) is seeking up to 7,000 select fire (meaning that they are capable of both semi-automatic and automatic fire) 5.56x45mm North Atlantic Treaty Organization (NATO) personal defense weapons (PDWs) on top of the hundreds of millions of hollow point rounds they recently acquired.
Unfortunately, the reason for both of these major purchases and the continuing heavy armament of DHS agencies like Immigration and Customs Enforcement (ICE) continues to go unexplained.
The newest weapons order – which was originally posted on June 7, 2012 and has a response date of July 9, 2012 – is for so-called personal defense weapons which would be used in close quarters combat situations when maximum concealment is required.
I find that last part quite interesting, as requiring maximum concealment for a 5.56x45mm NATO weapon is not really a run-of-the-mill request.
Each prospective vendor has been asked to provide to the DHS their weapons, which will be tested at the National Firearms and Tactical Training Unit (NFTTU) in Altoona, Pennsylvania, which is run by ICE.
Read More @ Activist Post


Globalist Plan: European Union Police State Lockdown

by Paul Joseph Watson, Prison Planet:
European Union apparatchiks are preparing to lockdown Europe following Greece’s exit. From the Associated Press today:
Olivier Bailly said Tuesday that, legally, limits could be imposed on movement of people and money across national borders within the EU if it’s necessary to protect public order or public security — but not on economic grounds.
“Some people are working on scenarios,” he said, but refused to identify individuals or organizations.
EU finance bosses have discussed controlling ATM withdrawals, subjecting the citizens of member states to rigorous border checks, and imposing capital controls “as a worst-case scenario should Athens decide to leave the euro,” Reuters reports.
The banksters are seriously worried about the a second Greek election on June 17 and are working on “contingencies” should a leftist coalition, SYRIZA, win the second election and increase the probability that Greece will ultimately renege on its EU/IMF bailout and dump the euro currency.
SYRIZA is a Greek abbreviation for Coalition of the Radical Left. It is comprised primarily of democratic socialists, green left groups and Maoist, Trotskyist and eurocommunist organizations.
Read More @ PrisonPlanet.com



This Is Exactly What Will Move Key Markets Going Forward

from KingWorldNews:

On the heels of a significant rally in stocks, along with gains in gold, silver and oil, today King World News interviewed acclaimed money manager Stephen Leeb, Chairman & Chief Investment Officer of Leeb Capital Management. Leeb told KWN what factor will be moving key markets going forward. But first, here is what Leeb had to say about the situation in Europe: “Spanish bond yields hit record highs, at least since the euro was formed. Investors gave a big thumbs down to this way of bailing out banks or even individual countries. The market still wants a broad based bailout, and the major roadblock there remains Germany.
Stephen Leeb continues @ KingWorldNews.com


Vaporized: Americans’ Wealth Collapses 40% Over Last Three Years

by Mac Slavo, SHTFPlan:
It might be well if you would ask yourself, are you better off than you were four years ago? Is it easier for you to go and buy things in the stores than it was four years ago? Is there more or less unemployment in the country than there was four years ago? Is America as respected throughout the world as it was? Do you feel that our security is as safe, that we’re as strong as we were four years ago?

President Reagan may just as well be speaking to us today.
The answer, as it was in November of 1980, is a resounding NO.
Read More @ SHTFPlan.com


The Bankrupt Financial Empire Seeks to Drive us into Hyperinflationary Suicide

from laroucheyouth:

Neither a bailout from Angela Merkel nor a fiscal union will save Europe.
 

Banking and Freedom

by Greg Hunter, USAWatchdog:
I just have a couple of videos to share with you today.  One is about banking and monetary policy from 12 year-old girl named Victoria Grant.  She is a Canadian that has a firm grasp about what’s really wrong with the global economy.  This video has gotten more than 600,000 views and when you watch it you will know why.  The second video is an oldie but a goodie from silent film star Charlie Chaplin.  It is just three minutes long, and it’s called “One of the most inspirational speeches in recorded history.”  I cannot disagree.  I think these two speeches fit nicely together even though they were given decades apart.  I hope you take the time to watch.
Read More @ USAWatchdog.com



SWIFT Collateral Damage: U.S. Exempts Seven Countries From Iran Oil Sanctions

By Silver Doctors:
It appears the administration is desperately attempting to undo the self-inflicted damage caused by its attempt to use the SWIFT system as an economic weapon…which backfired horribly as Iran began selling its oil for gold to nations such as India.
The US Monday exempted 7 nations from Iran oil sanctions (translation: please go back to using dollars for Iranian oil rather than gold!!)
Notice that while India, South Korea, South Africa, Turkey, and Taiwan (US allies) are now exempt from the sanctions, China noticeably is not.
This will be as successful as attempting to un-shoot yourself in the foot.
U.S. Exempts Seven Countries From Iran Oil Sanctions
DEBKAfile June 12, 2012, 12:42 AM (GMT+02:00)
The U.S. added Monday seven nations to the list of countries exempted from Iran oil sanctions, Secretary of State Hillary Clinton said.
The countries are India, Malaysia, South Korea, South Africa, Sri Lanka, Turkey and Taiwan. They “have all significantly reduced their volume of crude oil purchases from Iran,” Clinton announced.
China, the leading importer of Iranian crude as of the first half of last year, and Singapore weren’t granted exemptions.
Read More @ SilverDoctors.com



Economic Wizards and “Dark Arts”

by Michael Shedlock, Financial Sense:

Once upon a time (today), in a land not so far away (USA), there lived a trio of economic wizards (economists), whose names shall remain anonymous (Paul Krugman, Greg Mankiw, Ben Bernanke).
A fourth wizard, Murry Rothbard, is no longer among the living but resides in the netherworld.
The above wizards seldom agree with each other because they come from competing schools of wizardry.

Three Schools of Economic Wizardry

  1. Keynesian School of Fiscal Voodoo and Witchcraft
  2. Monetarist School of Monetary Voodoo and Witchcraft
  3. Austrian School of Sound Money, Sound Economic Principles and Common Sense.
  4. Read More @ Financial Sense.com


Gold: The Win-Win Asset

Stewart Thomson, Gold Seek:
1. “Investors are getting tired,” he said. “There’s only so much plaster you can put on a crumbling wall.” – Jack Ablin, chief investment officer at Harris Private Bank in Chicago on CNBC news, June 11, 2012
2. Italy is the 3rd largest economy in Europe, and it seems to be next in line to ask for bailout money. Italy is also the largest issuer of government debt in Europe.
3. Institutional analysts feel the European Central Bank needs to come up with a much bigger solution, but it seems unlikely to happen before the Greek election takes place on June 17. A municipal workers’ strike is planned for June 16, and that could delay the entire election. Europe seems to be almost out of control. Gold is always the preferred asset to own when uncertainty becomes the dominant theme.
Read More @ GoldSeek.com


Ranting’ Andy Hoffman – When Is A Bailout Not A Bailout? When You’re A Spanish Bank

from FinancialSurvivalNetwork.com:
Another Monday, another session with “Ranting” Andy Hoffman. The so-called Spanish Bank Bailout is purely illusionary and isn’t really happening. Rather, it is an effort to convince the people of the world that something is being done and that the situation is under control. In reality, the world economy is being ravaged like a California forest by a wild fire. They’re pouring all the water they can to put the fire out, but there’s not enough water in the world to bring it under control. The fire must run its course, and the best we can hope for is that once the forest has been burned to the ground, we can try to stop it from reigniting.
On the subject of ETF’s and whether they’re really holding all the gold they claim to, the Funds have been caught flat-footed with the disclosure that the gold bar held up by CNBC reporter Bob Pisani, during his visit to the GLD vault at an undisclosed location, was actually owned by another ETF, unrelated to GLD. That’s why there’s no substitute for physical gold and silver. Watch the weight, not the price.
CLICK HERE TO LISTEN TO AUDIO



Thanks, Mavrodi … Monetary Psyop Now in Full Bloom?

from The Daily Bell:
Is Global Finance a Ponzi Scheme? Ask a Russian Expert … What’s the difference between today’s global finance system and a Ponzi scheme? This is the question that a 56-year-old veteran Russian financial scammer has been asking his victims. Chillingly, he almost has a point … Sergei Mavrodi is one of the most infamous names in Russia’s recent history. Back in February 1994, amid the turmoil of the country’s transition to a market economy, the mathematician organized a Ponzi scheme called MMM … Now he’s back with an even more audacious endeavor: the honest scam. Last year, he announced the new project, MMM-2011, by stating boldly that it would be another Ponzi scheme. “Even if you strictly follow all instructions, you can still lose,” he wrote on a website describing the project. “Your ‘winnings’ may be withheld without any explanation or reason whatsoever.” – Bloomberg
Dominant Social Theme: This Mavrodi is an interesting fellow. He wrote, “What is money? … Nothing! Nihil. A phantom. … It is backed by nothing at all and printed by the masters in any quantity, at will.”
Free-Market Analysis: Mavrodi ended up in prison, but when he came out, he started a series of “legal” Ponzi Schemes. They were legal because he admitted to them up front. People invested in them at their own risk. And when they collapsed, people couldn’t claim they’d been tricked. His schemes did collapse but presumably they left him a wealthy man – legally.
Read More @ TheDailyBell.com


From Crowd Funding Europe’s Future to the Future of Gold and the US Dollar!

from CapitalAccount:


Welcome to Capital Account. The Eurozone debt crisis plot thickens today as Spanish government borrowing costs soared to their highest level since the launch of the Euro. Maybe the bond market agrees with our guest from yesterday that Madrid’s bank bailout ensures Spain is insolvent? Italy is swept up in the mess too, with Italian bond yields leaping up. So with the low-hanging-sentiment fruit seemingly picked, what does this mean for the Euro, the Dollar, and gold?



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