Tuesday, June 26, 2012


Merkel Says No European Shared Liability As Long As She Lives

For. The. Win.
GERMANY'S MERKEL SAYS EUROPE WILL NOT HAVE SHARED LIABILITY FOR DEBT AS LONG AS SHE LIVES
Socialism better have a Plan B.





Italy's Unelected PM Mario Monti: "Eurobonds, Or I Resign"

Update: According to subsequent press reports, Monty has denied he threatened to resign. i.e., Monti just blinked. So now it is up to Merkel who will either have a very short life, or Monti will have to come up with a different professional suicide gambit.
Just when we thought the European drama couldn't get any more poignant following Merkel's statement earlier which boils down to "No eurobonds or death", here comes Italy's unelected PM and former Goldmanite, Mario Monti, threatening that the beggar will pull the trigger on his own political career if he is not allowed to be a chooser. From Il Giornale: "If the Chancellor does not give up I will tell you that I resign because if things do not change are not able to bring Italy out of the abyss", he suggested relying on the bogeyman of the crisis that would bring Italy under attack of speculators. On the other hand, Merkel knows all too well that the fall of Rome would mean the collapse of the definitive ' euros by prospects that would put the shivers even in Berlin." So one hand for Merkel Eurobonds are a matter of life or death, while an elected technocrat with no leverage at all, threatens to quit. Our money is on the German.





Charting How Everything Changed In 2008

Between macro-economic 'religious' experiences, regulatory uncertainty, and legislative gyrations, the world appears to be a very different place now than before 2008. It seems that from the 'Lehman' moment (some might call it an 'epiphany' moment), and later the US downgrade, markets realized that the impossible was possible and while every long-only manager will try to convince you that nothing has changed, these four charts (via Barclays) will go a long way to proving that everything has changed. Whether it is policy uncertainty, the frequency of 'fat-tailed' events, market illiquidity, or the domination of correlated 'macro' risk over idiosyncratic diversification; trading (or investing) has profoundly changed since 2008.




Deutsche Bank Hides The Hopium: "The Next Recession Should Start By The End Of August"

If there is one bank report that Obama wishes is absolutely wrong it is the following note from Deutsche Bank's Jim Reid (definitely not part of the bank's laughable Trinity Of Perma Bull consisting of Bianco, Chadha and, of course, La Vorgna) who, looking at the timing of business cycles, makes the following ominous, for both the economy and Obama's reelection chances, prediction: "If this US cycle is of completely average length as seen using the last 158 years of history (33 cycles) then the next recession should start by the end of August." The only saving grace for the president: since the advent of centrally-planned markets, nothing is as it used to be, and the business cycle no longer exists ("JP Morgan Finds Obama, And US Central Planning, Has Broken The Economic "Virtuous Cycle""). Still, maybe, this is the one last trace of free capital markets that the Fed has (so far) been unable to totally destroy. We are confident it will get right on it.



Central Banks Will Continue To Print Paper Currency

Admin at Marc Faber Blog - 29 minutes ago
Central banks around the world will continue to print paper currency which will decrease the currency's purchasing power. - *in ET* *Marc Faber is an international investor known for his uncanny predictions of the stock market and futures markets around the world.* 


28% of Americans have no emergency savings

Eric De Groot at Eric De Groot - 30 minutes ago
If 99% of Americans have no idea that the probability of global crisis requiring emergency savings over the next few year is increasing with each passing day, does it matter that 28% of them have no emergency savings? Market conditions will force them to save whether they like it or not (chart 1). Chart: Savings (SAV) As A %GDP Average from 1947 Headline: 28% of Americans have no... [[ This is a content summary only. Visit my website for full links, other content, and more! ]] 


Public pension finances could soon look shakier

Eric De Groot at Eric De Groot - 1 hour ago
The proper verb selection is will. The size of the financial obligations for state and federal employees will "shock and awe" when the economy and tax revenues begin to slow in earnest towards the middle half of the decade. Headline: Public pension finances could soon look shakier NEW YORK (CNNMoney) -- States and cities will soon have to reveal just how big their pension holes are ...... [[ This is a content summary only. Visit my website for full links, other content, and more! ]]




Some Thoughts On Investing In The "Bottom" In Housing


There are roughly 19 million vacant dwellings in the U.S., of which around 4 million are second homes and a million or two are on the market. Let's stipulate that several million more are in areas with very low demand (i.e. few want to live there year-round). Let's also stipulate that several million more are in the "shadow inventory" of homes that are neither on the market nor even officially in the foreclosure pipeline, i.e. zombie homes. Even if you account for 9 million of these homes, that still leaves 10 million vacant dwellings in the U.S. which could be occupied. That means 1 in 12 of all dwellings are vacant. Even if you discount this by half, that still leaves 5 million vacant dwellings that could be occupied. Given that the total rental market is 40 million households, that constitutes a very large inventory of supply that remains untapped. Lastly, it is important to note that the ratio of residents to dwellings is rather low in the U.S., with millions of single-person households and large homes occupied by one or two people. The potential pool of existing homeowners who could enter the "informal" rental market by offering bedrooms, basements and even enclosed garages for rent is extremely large, and that is a difficult-to-count "shadow" inventory of potential rentals.




A Change To ESM Seniority Status Is Not Coming

In a world desperate for any news, today's borderline idiotic rumor du jour, of course after Monti's gambit blew up in his face literally in minutes, comes from Germany where interested parties leaked that Germany is considering changing the seniority status of the ESM, obviously to ameloirate subordination concerns of Spanish and soon, Italian, bonds. To wit, the headline machine has focused on this part of the recent Reuters report: "A leading ally of German Chancellor Merkel told a closed-door meeting of her conservatives on Tuesday that euro zone governments were discussing removing the preferred creditor status of the bloc's new permanent rescue fund, sources told Reuters." What is very conveniently missed out is what actually matters: "Neither Merkel nor Finance Minister Wolfgang Schaeuble spoke out in favour of such a move at the meeting, the sources said, leaving it unclear whether the idea had the firm backing of the German government." And whatever Merkel (and Schauble, of course), wants Merkel (and Schauble, of course) gets. Because both of them realize that investing €500 billion of what will in the end be purely German cash as more and more countries move from ESM guarantors to ESM recipients, in addition to the hundreds of billions in sunk TARGET2 costs, amount to a number increasingly roughly the same size as German GDP, as we explained last July. Also, as we explained last July, lots of angry Germans are getting angrier by the day.





Brace For Turmoil In Global Markets As Spanish Domino Falls

from KingWorldNews:
On the heels of Moody’s downgrading 28 Spanish banks, today 40 year veteran, Robert Fitzwilson, wrote the following piece exclusively for King World News. Fitzwilson is founder of The Portola Group, one of the premier boutique firms in the United States. Here are Fitzwilson’s observations of the current crisis we face: “The monetary system is trapped. Despite various forms of quantitative easing and the forcible reduction of interest rates, the level of economic activity has begun to reverse course. The recent releases of economic indicators, in most areas of the world, have been revealing a global economy that is beginning to tank. It is clear that the levers exercised by the central banks since late-2008 are not as effective as they once were.”
“The extended Zero Interest Rate Policy (ZIRP) is wreaking havoc with retirees, savers, retirement funds, and the net interest margin of the banking institutions. Large corporations have a tremendous amount of cash, but small businesses struggle to find working capital and bank loans. Small businesses and entrepreneurs are the job creators.
Robert Fitzwilson continues @ KingWorldNews.com





Yanis Varoufakis: Greece is Finished

by Yves Smith, Naked Capitalism:
Yves here. Yanis just posted an interview with ABC (Australia’s BBC) which describes how Greece cannot be salvaged. Its fate will be determined at the eurozone level, and its possible outcomes range from bad to awful. You can watch the conversation here. Transcript below:
Leigh Sales: Joining us now from Athens is the Greek economist Yanis Varoufakis. The obvious question is: what happens now?
Yanis Varoufakis, Athens University: Well, the derailment of the train that is the eurozone, which started with Greece and then other carriages started leaving the tracks sequentially – Ireland, Portugal, now Spain – is continuing. And yesterday’s vote is not going to change that at all. All exuberance and celebrations are completely and utterly misplaced. I’m afraid that the eurozone and Europe is continuing along the path of the last two years of a cascade of errors, a comedy of errors. Just look at Spain, what is happening there today. Look at what is happening in Italy. Unless the logic or what passes as logic in the European approach to this crisis alters and alters fast, very soon the eurozone will be history.
Read More @ NakedCapitalism.com



BTFD...Keep Stacking...

Silver buying support below $27

from, Gold Money:
We saw divergence yesterday between stocks and precious metals – with the former struggling as a result of more euro fears, while the latter rallied higher; the gold and silver selling at the end of last week once again tempting bargain hunters into precious metals. The US dollar also gained as a result of “safe haven” bids – with the EURUSD dropping to a low of $1.247 before recovering. The Dollar Index gained 0.29% to settle at 82.50. PIIGS debt again sold off following Spain’s formal request for a bank bailout, with strong bids for German Bunds, US Treasuries, and to a lesser extent UK gilts.
Today is expiration day for Comex silver options, which might have had something to do with the weakness seen in silver at the end of last week. However, there were strong bids for the “poor man’s gold” yesterday afternoon which took the price up by around 75 cents in a matter of minutes. This has lifted silver away from its dangerzone around $26, and confirms the decent buying support that exists for silver below $27.
Read More @ GoldMoney.com



The Day Of The Deflationists

by Jim Sinclair, JS Mineset:
My Dear Extended Family,
Never before in the entire period of 1968 to 1980, or 2001 to present, have I received so many copies of classical deflationist scenarios in one day. It would seem as if the God of Deflation overflew the gold guys and dropped their leaflets.
Classical deflation does not have a snowball’s chance in hell of occurring now for any length of time. To assume that you have to hold the belief that Bernanke is a mole in the present administration, placed their covertly to bury the present administration so deep that there will never be a democrat in office after 2013 anywhere.
If you believe there is a political appetite for the collapse of the Western financial system, they had a perfect chance in 2008 and did not accept that great opportunity to purge the system of Banksters for political reasons.
The problems of 2008 are here now and greater. Derivatives still challenge the entire system at a greater level. A major under the covers audit is being done right now of some major banks for serious OTC derivative problems. Market miscreant activity allowed the break to near nothing for many financial institutions. The activity specifically is the absence of the uptick rule, which is still missing. The regulators are controlled by Washington which in turn is owned by the hedge fund and bankster’s lobby.
Read More @ JSMineset.com

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Tokyo Residents: Don’t Touch the Black or Blue Dirt


Fukushima has been decimated by radiation.
But Fukushima City has less than 300,000 residents. And all of Fukushima prefecture has 2 million. On the other hand, greater Tokyo – the world’s largest megacity – has 35 million inhabitants.
Tokyo soil has been blanketed by Fukushima radiation, even though the Japanese capital is 170 miles from the Fukushima nuclear complex.
Now, substances with even higher levels of radiation are showing up around Tokyo.
Minamisoma city council member Koichi Oyama writes:
People in Tokyo, the black substance is here!
***
Please, people who live around, look at that!
***
It’s on the roof, on the asphalt, on concrete… Everywhere on all surfaces.
“Almost every part where is black”.
“Those black substances have fallen away and because of the rain water it accumulates underfoot”.
“I think 1 micro is almost 100000 becquerels?, 1 second ?,?,? Ray 100 needles?”.
“Never touch them with naked hands”.
So, what’s he talking about? City council member Koichi filmed black “dirt” on the ground in various areas of Tokyo, showing very high radiation levels.
Read More @ WashingtonsBlog.com



‘Obama Truth Team’ Orders GoDaddy To Shut Down Website

by Paul Joseph Watson, Info Wars:
A political website that contained stinging criticism of the Obama administration and its handling of the Fast and Furious scandal was ordered to be shut down by the Obama campaign’s ‘Truth Team’, according to private investigator Douglas Hagmann, who was told by ISP GoDaddy his site contained information that was “maliciously harmful to individuals in the government.”

Read More @ InfoWars.com




Drone Documents: Why The Government Won’t Release Them

by Cora Currier, Pro Publica:
The covert U.S. effort to strike terrorist leaders using drones has moved further out of the shadows this year — targeted killing has been mentioned [1] by President Obama and defended in speeches by Attorney General Eric Holder [2] and Obama counterterrorism adviser John Brennan [3]. The White House recently declassified [4] the fact that it is conducting military operations in Yemen and Somalia.
But for all the talk, the administration says it hasn’t officially confirmed particular strikes or the CIA’s involvement.
Over the past year, the American Civil Liberties Union and reporters at The New York Times have filed several requests under the Freedom of Information Act seeking information about the CIA’s drone program and the legal justification for attacks that killed terrorists and U.S. citizens [5]. The government answered with a Glomar response [6] — neither verifying nor denying that it has such documents.
Read More @ ProPublica.org



Ben Davies: Revolting PIIGS — a golden hope?

By Ben Davies, GATA:
Dear Friend of GATA and Gold:
Classifying gold held by smaller commercial banks as a zero-risk-weighted asset, an asset as good as cash and government bonds, might do as much for gold in coming years as the change of central banks from net sellers to net buyers, Hinde Capital CEO Ben Davies writes. (Davies notes that this must not be confused with the liability side of the equation that Tier 1 capital addresses. Gold on the liability side would be classified as a currency deposit in the same way as a cash deposit, which is stated on the liability side of a bank’s balance sheet — that is, a form of debt.)
Of course the impact well might depend on the form of gold claimed to be owned by banks. Real metal in their vaults, unencumbered, might be one thing. Shares of GLD, shorted and rehypothecated six ways to Sunday, might be another.
Read More @ GATA.org



SBSS 44. Future Silver Legal Tender

from TruthNeverTold :




Keiser Report: Gold vs Paper (E306)

from RussiaToday:

In this episode, Max Keiser and co-host, Stacy Herbert, discuss the world looking for people looking for economic salvation in gold, the Eurozone and emerging markets and ask “what kind of stupid people put precious money into messy banks?” In the second half of the show Max talks to former market maker and newsletter writer, Rick Ackerman, about inflation, deflation, the euro and the student loan market.



Credit Default Swaps Explained

from Wealth Cycles:

A credit default swap (CDS) is a derivative referencing the credit of the ‘reference entity.’ A derivative is simply a contract.
You can think of a credit default swap (CDS) as kind of like auto insurance. Let’s say you are buying car insurance for yourself:
  • You purchase car insurance from an insurance company
  • You will make periodic payments to the insurance company
  • If you do not get in an accident, the insurance company keeps the money
  • If you do get in an accident, the insurance covers the cost of the damages
A CDS is similar but not identical. One difference is, with a CDS you are buying insurance to protect against a credit event of the reference entity:
  • The buyer will purchase a CDS to insure against the reference entity
  • The CDS buyer will make periodic payments to the seller
  • If the reference entity does not suffer a credit event, as defined by the ISDA, the CDS seller keeps the payments
  • In the case of a credit event, the CDS buyer receives full value, and the CDS seller typically receives the defaulted security from the CDS buyer (as an auto insurer would receive a totaled vehicle)
  • Read More @ WealthCycles.com



Vampire Squid Downgrades Margin Stanley From Conviction Buy To Netural, Warns On Counterparty Risk, Lowers PT From $20 To $16

from Zero Hedge:
GS just did what it does best: pulled the rug from under its most troubled peer: “We are downgrading MS to Neutral and removing shares from the America’s Conviction List. Since being added to the Americas Conviction List on January 29, 2012, MS shares are down 27% vs. flat for the S&P 500. Over the past 12 months, MS shares are down 39% vs. the S&P 500 up 4%. When we added shares to the Conviction List, we noted that MS had addressed a number of legacy issues including (1) the conversion of the MUFG preferred stock to common to bolster common equity capital ratios, (2) elimination of the CIC preferred dividend, (3) removal of the MBIA relationship//hedge overhang, (4) write-down of legacy real estate assets, (5) elimination of non-core asset management businesses, and (6) near-completion of the integration of Smith Barney and Morgan Stanley Wealth Management. While that all still holds true today and should be beneficial towards long-term “normalized” returns, we believe several capital market overhangs will reduce out-year earnings visibility and cap near-term outperformance. While too soon to tell how counterparties will react to a new capital market ratings distribution post-Moody’s, this cycle has proven that banks with the largest increase in funding spreads have generally lost fixed income trading market share. In addition, with a number of global macro uncertainties likely to weigh on capital markets activity for the foreseeable future, MS has outsized exposure here as well….we are lowering our 12-month price target for MS to $16 (from $20) based on 0.6X TBV (from 0.7x) to reflect challenged near-term earnings power.”
Capitalism at its best: kick ‘em while they’re down.
Read More @ Zero Hedge.com



The Black Hole of Deflation – Part 1

by Julian Phillips, Gold Seek:
The Global Picture and Where We Are Now: For the last few years we’ve watched as the Credit Crunch morphed into the Sovereign Debt crisis in Europe, which may re-cross the Atlantic to hit the U.S. Treasury market. During that time, we have watched a series of patch-up jobs on the crisis that have only succeeded in prolonging the crisis without any real structural remedies. We’ve also watched how central bankers have seen the ‘buck’ passed to them, when their role is strictly in support of government action that should have led the way. Central bankers are running out of tools to tackle the task they should never have been asked to tackle alone.
Political leaders (who usually act only in concern of the consequences to their political careers) have only been willing to provide hormone-free measures that have yet to see any convincing success. Much as people look for someone to blame or an interest to protect, the fault lies with the underlying structure of national affairs. Not only do we find banks bound by the interests of their shareholders to achieve profits, but politicians working in a democratic set of national systems guarding their voting base with future elections in mind.
Read More @ GoldSeek.com



A Giant Game of Currency Chess

By Dan Denning, Daily Reckoning.com.au:
No matter how bad things get this week, just be thankful you’re not the Greek finance minister. Vassilios Rapanos resigned his post four days after being appointed. He’d been in the hospital after collapsing on June 22nd, probably after getting his first look at the real state of Greek finances.
Greece will be one of the items on the agenda at this week’s European Union summit. The coalition led by new Greek President Antonis Samaras pledged to renegotiate the terms of the previous bailout deal between Greece and the EU. That was the $163 billion deal.
As if that wasn’t enough uncertainty for the EU, Spain has formally requested a $125 billion bailout for its banks. Cyprus joined the bailout queue overnight, too. Bloomberg reports that the island nation needs around $5 billion to recapitalise its banks after losses taken on Greek government bonds. Fittingly, Cyprus will assume the rotating Presidency of the EU on July 1st.
Read More @ DailyReckoning.com.au



The Absurdity of NATO

from Azizonomics:
The whole world knows the name Gavrilo Princip, and that of he man he assassinated, Archduke Franz Ferdinand. Princip’s shot triggered the Austro-Hungarian invasion of Serbia that set in motion the chain of events leading to the Great War of 1914.
After Serbia appealed to Russia for help, Russia began moving towards mobilization of its army, believing that Germany was using the crisis as an excuse to launch war in the Balkans. Upon hearing news of Russia’s general mobilization, Germany declared war on Russia. The German army then launched its attack on Russia’s ally, France, through Belgium, violating Belgian neutrality and bringing Great Britain into the war as well.
Is it possible that a similar chain of events may have already begun unfurling with the Syrian downing of a Turkish F-4 fighter jet? Turkey have already invoked a full meeting of NATO, claimed that Syria have fired on a second Turkish plane, and vowed that Syria’s actions “won’t go unpunished”.
Read More @ Azizonomics.com



Turkey, Russia, Ukraine and Kazakhstan Further Diversify Into Gold

from GoldCore:
Turkey raised its reported gold holdings by another 2% in the month of May. Turkey’s gold holding rose by 5.7 tonnes in May to total 245 tonnes, International Monetary Fund data showed, making it the latest in a string of countries to increase gold bullion reserves this year.
Russia expanded its gold reserves by 15.5 metric tons in May as Ukraine and Kazakhstan increased their holdings of the metal, International Monetary Fund data shows according to Bloomberg.
Russia’s bullion reserves climbed to 911.3 tons last month when gold averaged $1,587.68 an ounce, data on the IMF’s website showed. Ukraine’s climbed 2.1 tons to 32.7 tons and Kazakhstan boosted reserves by 1.8 tons to 100 tons, the data show.
Central banks are expanding reserves due to the Eurozone debt crisis and concerns about fiat currency debasement.
Read More @ GoldCore.com




22 Statistics That Prove That The American Dream Is Being Systematically Destroyed

The American Dream is being systematically destroyed right in front of our eyes and most Americans don’t even realize what is happening. In the old days, if you were a hard worker and you played by the rules you could always find a good job. That good job would enable you to buy a house, buy at least one car and support a family. It would also enable you to take a couple of vacations each year and buy some nice things for your family. After working for 30 or 40 years you would look forward to a comfortable retirement. But these days fewer and fewer Americans are able to enjoy the American Dream. Once upon a time, the United States had the largest and most prosperous middle class in the history of the world, but now that is changing at a breathtaking pace. Our economy is not producing nearly enough jobs for all of us anymore, and an increasing percentage of the jobs that are being produced pay 10 dollars an hour or less. The cost of living continues to rise steadily every single year while wages do not. Close to half of all American workers are living month to month, and many American families have gone deep into debt as they struggle to pay the bills. Millions more Americans are falling into poverty each year and dependence on the government is at an all-time high. Something is fundamentally wrong with our economy. It is not working the way that it used to, and the middle class is being absolutely shredded. Most American families are finding it harder and harder to make it through each passing year, and unless a miracle happens things are going to continue to get even harder.
Read More @ EndOfTheAmericanDream.com




Too Much Debt: Our Biggest Economic Problem

from The Economic Collapse Blog:
What is the biggest economic problem that the United States is facing? Very simply, our biggest problem is that we have way too much debt. Over the past 30 years, household debt, corporate debt and government debt have all grown much faster than our GDP has. But no nation on earth has ever been able to expand debt much faster than national output indefinitely. All debt bubbles eventually burst. Right now, we are living in the greatest debt bubble in the history of the world. All of this debt has fueled a “false prosperity” which has enabled many Americans to live like kings and queens. But no nation (or household) can pile on more debt forever. At some point the weight of the debt becomes just too great. It is amazing that the United States has been able to pile up as much debt as it has. Over the years, many authors have predicted that U.S. government finances would collapse long before the U.S. national debt ever got to this level. So the mountain of debt that we have accumulated is quite an “achievement” if you want to look at it that way. But the clock is ticking on this debt bubble and when it collapses we will say “bye bye” to our vastly inflated standard of living and we will discover that we have destroyed the economy for all future generations of Americans.
Read More @ TheEconomicCollpaseBlog.com

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