The Definitive Visual Greek Election Tracker

Ignore the media spin of sampling error as definitive confirmation of this or that (because a 1% difference in exit poll terms is well within a 3% error sampling distribution, where a plurality lead incidentally gives the winner an automatic 50 seats), and follow the results for yourself as they come streaming in. Full visual real-time update below.

2nd Greek Exit Poll Remains Balanced As Elderly Bias For New Democracy Pushes Them Into Slight Lead

While the burning of a ballot box in Exharia, Athens remains the most unrest among the civilians we have seen so far (in which 2 policemen were injured), the second exit poll results are in and New Domcracy has a modest lead:

•     *GREECE'S NEW DEMOCRACY GETS 28.6% - 30%   IN EXIT POLL: NET
•     *GREECE'S SYRIZA GETS 27.5% - 28.4% IN EXIT POLL, NET SAYS
•     *GREECE'S PASOK PARTY HAS 11% - 12.4% IN EXIT POLL, NET SAYS
•     *INDEPENDENT GREEKS GETS 6.8% TO 7.8% IN EXIT POLL, NET SAYS
•     *GREECE'S GOLDEN DAWN GETS 6.5% TO 7.1% IN EXIT POLL, NET SAYS
•     *GREEK COMMUNIST PARTY GETS 4.8% - 5.6% IN EXIT POLL, NET SAYS

As a reminder (here and here), "The outcome will be too close to call if the difference between the first two parties is less than 2%-3% with strong precedent of exit polls failing to predict the outcome when the race is tight."
In the meantime, a friendly reminder from the Germans:

•     *GERMANY'S WESTERWELLE SAYS GREEK PACKAGE CAN'T BE NEGOTIATED

French Socialists Win An Absolute Majority In Parliament

While everyone is focusing on Greece, we have news from France:

• FRENCH SOCIALISTS WIN ABSOLUTE MAJORITY IN PARLIAMENT, CSA SAYS
• FRENCH SOCIALISTS WON 320 SEATS, CSA SAYS; MAJORITY IS 289
• FRENCH SOCIALISTS WON'T NEED TO RELY ON LEFT FRONT, GREENS: CSA

So... does that mean that the recently reduced minimum retirement age wil be cut again, thank you Germany?

 

 

First Greek Exit Poll Shows Dead Heat Between Syriza And New Democracy

The long-anticipated first Greek exit poll is out. The results, per Greek Mega TV, are as follows:

• New Democracy 27.5-30.5,
• SYRIZA 27-30,
• PASOK 10-12,
• Ind Gr 6-7.5,
• Golden Dawn 6-7.5,
• Dem Left 5.5-6.5,
• KKE 5-6

In a word: very much indefinite, as the leader will get the bonus of 50 parliamentary seats, which makes any conclusive calculus impossible for now.

Reload Page Often for latest ...

 

 

How Shock Waves Will Hit US if Greece Drops the Euro – The Unthinkable Suddenly Looks Possible

from AP:
The unthinkable suddenly looks possible.
Bankers, governments and investors are preparing for Greece to stop using the euro as its currency, a move that could spread turmoil throughout the global financial system.
The worst case envisions governments defaulting on their debts, a run on European banks and a worldwide credit crunch reminiscent of the financial crisis in the fall of 2008.
A Greek election on Sunday will determine whether it happens. Syriza, a party opposed to the restrictions placed on Greece in exchange for a bailout from European neighbors, could do well.
If Syriza gains power and rejects the terms of the bailout, Greece could lose its lifeline, default on its debt and decide that it must print its own currency, the drachma, to stay afloat.
Read More @ AP.org

 

 

Will Tsipras Blow Up Europe?

For Greece, this is an important election. Inside the euro, their heavily state-dependent economy will continue to suffer scathing austerity. Outside the euro, they can freely debase, and — as Nigel Farage has noted — enjoy the benefits of a cheaper currency like renewed tourism and more competitive industry. If Greeks want growth sooner rather than much later, they should choose life outside the euro (and by voting for Tsipras and trying tough negotiating tactics, they will be asking to be thrown out). But for the rest of the world, and the rest of Europe, this is all meaningless. As Ron Paul has noted, when the banking institutions need the money, central banks — whether it’s the ECB, or the Fed, or the BoE, or a new global central superbank — will print and print and print. Whether Greece is in or out, when the time comes to save the financial system the central bankers will print. That is the nature of fiat money, as much as the chickenhawks at the ECB might pretend to have hard-money credentials. Tsipras, though — as a young hard-leftist — would be a good scapegoat for throwing Greece out of the Eurozone (something that — in truth — the core seems to want).

The Bang! Moment is Here

by John Mauldin, Gold Seek:
“Perhaps more than anything else, failure to recognize the precariousness and fickleness of confidence – especially in cases in which large short-term debts need to be rolled over continuously – is the key factor that gives rise to the this-time-is-different syndrome. Highly indebted governments, banks, or corporations can seem to be merrily rolling along for an extended period, when bang – confidence collapses, lenders disappear, and a crisis hits.
“Economic theory tells us that it is precisely the fickle nature of confidence, including its dependence on the public’s expectation of future events, which makes it so difficult to predict the timing of debt crises. High debt levels lead, in many mathematical economics models, to “multiple equilibria” in which the debt level might be sustained – or might not be. Economists do not have a terribly good idea of what kinds of events shift confidence and of how to concretely assess confidence vulnerability. What one does see, again and again, in the history of financial crises is that when an accident is waiting to happen, it eventually does. When countries become too deeply indebted, they are headed for trouble. When debt-fueled asset price explosions seem too good to be true, they probably are. But the exact timing can be very difficult to guess, and a crisis that seems imminent can sometimes take years to ignite.”
Read More Part 1 @ GoldSeek.com

A call to arms for central banks

by Alasdair Macleod, Gold Money:
The rate at which the majority of the eurozone is descending into insolvency is accelerating. The rescue package for Spanish banks, which appears to have been provisionally set at a figure designed to impress the markets, hardly even produced a dead-cat bounce. All it has achieved is to draw attention yet again to the helplessness of the authorities in dealing with multiple debt-traps. So what is the answer?
It depends on the purpose behind the question. If it is to seek a genuine solution, then the answer is to cut public spending rigorously in all countries that depend on markets to fund budget deficits or to roll over existing debts. Only a convincing budget surplus is going to lead to falling borrowing costs. The objection to this solution is partly political and partly on the grounds of neoclassical economic prejudice. The former persists in placing social objectives above economic objectives, while the latter has been convincingly proved to be wrong. Otherwise, please talk us through how a government actually knows best to kick-start an economy into recovery, without ignoring the accumulation of past evidence. Explain why it is that those countries, driven by the consumption so loved by Keynesians and monetarists alike, have turned into basket-cases, while economies driven by a savings culture persistently confound all neoclassical theory by making their citizens better off, in every case.
Read More @ GoldMoney.com

Fiat Currency in a Kondratieff Winter

by James Turk, FGMR:
Nikolai Kondratieff (1892-1938) was a Russian economist who theorized that capitalist economies are subject to a repeating 54-year cycle, though I have seen his work interpreted to fit economic periods lasting anywhere from 40 to 60 years. Each “Kondratieff wave” is divided into four periods that are given the name of the four seasons. A wave begins with an economic boom and ends in a financial bust lasting several years. This period of poor economic conditions is called the Kondratieff Winter.
A Kondratieff Winter is marked by depression and deflation, like occurred during the Great Depression of the 1930s. Followers of this theory generally contend that the world is presently in another Kondratieff Winter.
I am not a proponent of the Kondratieff theory because I do not believe that events are preordained, or that they fit precise cycles. Nevertheless, I am an adherent of Austrian Economics, and thus recognize that economic booms that are artificially induced by cheap credit do occur, and that these booms result in an inevitable bust. So in that sense, if one wishes to call the world’s present circumstances a Kondratieff Winter, I would agree.
Read More @ FGMR.com

Greek Election Cheat Sheet

All you need to know about today's prime time event.
 

What Is Going Through The Heads Of Greek Executives Right Now

With mere hours left until the first Greek exit polls are released, one group of the Greek population, perhaps the most important one if the country of 23% unemployment is to have any hope of not sinking into the Mediterranean, its business executives, has yet to express its opinion on the aftermath of today's election. And while we know that many local businesses have already transferred their money (whether or not taxed is a different question) abroad, it is after all they that will serve as the backbone of any possible future Greek renaissance, whether EUR or XGD denominated. So do they think? Recently Citigroup's European team met with executives from big Greek / Cyprus banks and several officials - independent parties. The key message is that the situation is critical but there is some optimism on the Day after the elections.

A Global Recession? The Warning Signs Are Everywhere

Eric De Groot at Eric De Groot - 3 hours ago

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Chinese Slowdown

Admin at Jim Rogers Blog - 4 hours ago

The slow down in china is still a boom everywhere else in the world. - in CNBC *Jim Rogers is an author, financial commentator and successful international investor. He has been frequently featured in Time, The New York Times, Barron’s, Forbes, Fortune, The Wall Street Journal, The Financial Times and is a regular guest on Bloomberg and CNBC.*

In The Case Of The World Vs Merkel, The Broke Prosecution Proposes Eurobonds Lite

The battle fronts have been drawn out: it is literally the world against Germany.

As Greek Banks Run Out Of Safe Deposit Boxes, An Eerie Calm Takes Over The Country 24 Hours Before D-Day

The most ironic moment in the Greek denouement will come when fractional reserve lending collapses onto itself:
"Stavropoulos and her friends have a new strategy to deal with their daily expenses. "We charge everything to our credit cards," she says. If the Greek banks fail, they won't be able to collect the outstanding debts, she argues. "If they want to mess me around, I will do the same to them."
In other words, Greece is now America, where the vast majority of people also live on credit alone, and have taken up the following motto when dealing with banks: "you pretend to be solvent, we pretend to have money." At the end of the day, it is all just one big global monetary circle jerk, only this time in reverse, as the snake of fractional reserve banking has finally started to eat its own tail. With people spending money they don't have, and in debt to their eyeballs to a banking system that itself is just as insolvent, is there any wonder that nobody really panics any more over daily threats the grand reset is finally coming?

The 20 Countries With The Highest Probability Of Default

by John Hempton, Business Insider:
As the economic crisis in Europe continues to flare up, investors holding sovereign debt have had to pay substantially higher rates to insure themselves from default via Credit Default Swaps.
Business Insider compiled data on some 59 countries where investors can buy protection.
The results: issuers of credit default swaps don’t see the U.S., Germany or Norway defaulting anytime soon.
What follows is a look at the cost to insure $10,000 of ten-year sovereign debt per year.
Read More @ Business Insider.com

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