Monday, June 4, 2012


Faber On Europe's Dilemma And China's Hard Landing

Marc Faber brought his typical sense of reality and truthfulness to CNBC's Squawk Box this morning and in doing so managed to stop Jeremy Siegel saying long-term-buy-and-hold for more than 7 minutes. Siegel represented the 'new-hopers' with his insight that if the ECB would just guarantee all euro-wide deposits then all would be well in the world. Faber comes over-the-top in his gentle European accent reminding the academic that "it is hard to guarantee something you have no control over". Faber then proceeds to state his view that Europe is in a deepening recession and more importantly that China is growing at a far lower pace than official statistics would infer. Reminding viewers that about 40% of US corporate profits are from outside the US and the 'vicious spiral chain reaction' from slowing demand in China for industrial commodities has lagged effects on producing countries and then aggregate demand globally, Faber fears broad-based risk sell-offs but remains notably less sanguine on US Treasuries.




Brussels... We Have A Problem

The following chart from Ray Dalio's Bridgewater probably explains why the words "funding gap" (or "math") will never be uttered by any Eurocrat as that would mean the jig is up. It is also quite self-explanatory.





Sprott: ‘Perfect environment for gold’

by Jonathan Ratner, Financial Post:
Gold’s counter-intuitive capping in the face of an escalating world-wide debt and derivatives crisis can only persist so long before free market forces overtake central bank/ cartel suppression efforts.
Eric Sprott, CEO of Sprott Asset Management, said the recent surge in gold is overdue given the unsustainable leverage among financial institutions and the severe bank run Spain is facing.
 “It’s the perfect environment for gold,” he said in an interview. “It’s is the ultimate place to be if you don’t want to worry that your currency may be devalued or somebody pulls out of the EU.
Read More @ financialpost.com




Gold and Dow Flash the Same Warning Signal


By Greg hunter’s USAWatchdog.com

Dear CIGAs,
clip_image001On Friday, both gold and the Dow flashed the same warning signal—the economy is in deep trouble.  The Dow plunged nearly 275 points on the news of a weak jobs report, and gold rocketed higher by $66 on speculation global bankers are going to print money to resuscitate a dying financial system.  You do not get this kind of tandem move in opposite directions by coincident.  Last week, both the stock and gold markets appeared to stop pretending and acknowledged the vortex of debt and insolvency that could suck us all into a black hole.
Renowned gold expert Jim Sinclair of JSMineset.com said Friday, “Those popular gold writers calling for much lower gold prices are simply out of their mind and disconnected from reality.”  Sinclair has been calling for “QE to infinity” (money printing) for years now, and he’s been right.  Of course, money printing masked the recession/depression since 2008; and now, it looks like more of the same bad medicine is on the way—only a much higher dose.  My only question is when does the money printing stop working and turn the currency into confetti?  It appears we will find out sooner than later.
I heard one analyst on financial TV say the Dow death dive was overdone and it was “. . . just one bad unemployment report.”  I heard another say we’re just going to have to “live with some inflation.”   The rich can live just fine “with some inflation.”  It’s the folks on the other end of the spectrum I worry about, which is 98% of the rest of us.  As far as the unemployment report, there have been so many lousy jobs reports John Williams at Shadowstats.com has been calling what has been going on since the 2008 meltdown “bottom bouncing.”  Looks to me we are hitting bottom, once again.  Forget the rise in “official” unemployment to 8.2% from 8.1%.  It’s been consistently much worse if you measured unemployment the way the Bureau of Labor Statistics (BLS) did in 1994 or earlier.  In his latest report, Williams said, “. . . during the Clinton Administration, “discouraged workers”—those who had given up looking for a job because there were no jobs to be had—were redefined so as to be counted only if they had been “discouraged” for less than a year.  This time qualification defined away the long-term discouraged workers.  The remaining short-term discouraged workers (less than one year) are included in U.6.”  If you add those “long-term discouraged workers” back in to the BLS calculation, Williams says unemployment “rose to 22.7%, from 22.3% in April.”
Take a look at this chart of unemployment from Shadowstats.com.  The blue line on top is drawn by using data that includes “long term discouraged workers.”  Does it look like unemployment is improving like the government says it’s been doing?
More…





A Central Bank Running Suicide? SNB Prints At Pace Not Seen Since EUR/CHF Parity In August 2011

The most recent money supply data from the Swiss National Bank (SNB) has shown increases of huge amounts. As compared with its loss of 19 bln. francs in 2010 (3% percent of the Swiss GDP), the central bank printed tremendous 17.3 bln. in the week ending in June 1st and 13 bln. in the one ending in May 25th. These numbers were not seen since August 2011 when the SNB increased money supply by 50 bln and 40 bln per week buying the EUR/CHF at rates between 1.00 and 1.13. Now, however they are buying at 1.20 and are risking extreme losses, especially because many other central banks are dumping euros.



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Thinga-ma-jigs That Leave Me Speechless

Dave in Denver at The Golden Truth - 12 minutes ago
QE is coming in one form or another, both in Europe and the U.S. It has to happen in both places because the European banks are blowing up and the U.S. banks, via massive derivatives exposure, are exposed to the European banks on a significantly leveraged basis. Not only is QE coming, but Obama is starting to hint at more fiscal stimulas (read: Government borrowing and spending money to employ more public union workers). What I found staggering is that Obama referenced giving Americans money to spend on "thinga-ma-jigs" recently in a campaign speech in Minnesota. (Sourced from ... more » 
 


We Have A Vicious Spiral Going Through The Global Economy

Admin at Marc Faber Blog - 2 hours ago
So you have essentially a chain, a vicious spiral going through the global economy, which means that corporate profits in the U.S. ... will disappoint. - *in CNBC * * * Related: SPDR SP 500 ETF (NYSE:SPY), iShares MSCI Emerging Markets Index (ETF) *Marc Faber is an international investor known for his uncanny predictions of the stock market and futures markets around the world.*





Progressive (aka Idiots) American Think Tank Begs Bernanke To Bail Out Spain

It's one thing for liberals to demand one group of Americans pay for another group of Americans, with a third group's money of course (until it runs out), but when a progressive think tank actually has the temerity to tell Bernanke that Europe is not socialist enough, and thus needs liberal US support, that's when things just get plain old silly. Which incidentally, is precisely what the progressive brains of Mark Weisbrot and Dean Baker, co-directors of the liberal Center for Economic and Policy Research, have done. Naturally, we are all for a humanistic effort; we also believe in leading by example. If Messrs. Weisbrot and Baker would first be kind enough to divest themselves of all their earthly possessions and bank account contents, which should be Fedexed and wired in the direction of Spain post haste, it would make their transparently theatrical pursuit of pseudo-noble causes just that more palatable to the masses who already are on the verge of poverty, and are now being asked to bail out other countries.





Banks And The "Whole Democracy Thing" In 90 Seconds Or Less


90 seconds that describes the sad reality of US banking and politics - in Dr.Seuss style prose. "Now cabbies and crop-pickers will pick up the slack; your taxes will bring the bankers right back; where we'll keep spreading our good news, of deregulation and free market views - 'We know what we're doing, just stop with the rules!'"
"Now we're buying both sides to do our good bidding; That whole Democracy thing? Surely You're Kidding"





When Macro Meets Micro

The battle between rising profits & low equity valuations and the major macro-economic issues facing the world just won't go away. Michael Cembalest, JPMorgan's CIO, has been underweight equities YTD and remains so as he sees the Squid (some of the worst macro-economic imbalances on record) will beat the Whale (rising corporate profits, the lowest equity valuation multiple in decades, and a 50-year high in corporate cash balances) as he sees again and again that as soon as periods of monetary stimulus fade, so have measures of global activity. With global PMIs rolling over once again, China's growth fading as its credit creation slows, Europe's distressful situation, and the US failing to achieve escape velocity, Cembalest believes government rescues of different kinds may be on the way at some point which will probably stabilize markets, but finds it hard to see the squid-whale (macro-micro) battle being decisively resolved in 2012.





Barkel Press Conference Begins... And Ends

The much anticipated press conference between Merkel and Barroso, hence Barkel, in which nothing of any substance will be announced, has begun. Rolling headlines as we get them:
  • MERKEL SAYS WE NEED MORE EUROPE, NOT LESS IN EURO-ZONE (sounds familiar)
  • MERKEL SAYS WILL DISCUSS EUROPEAN SUPERVISIONS OF BANKS AT EU SUMMIT, BANKING SUPERVISION IS A MID-TERM GOAL
  • BARROSO SAYS WILL PUSH FOR BANKING UNION AT THE COMING SUMMIT
  • MERKEL SAYS EU NEEDS ANSWERS SOON ON POLITICAL UNION
  • MERKEL SAYS DISCUSSING EU BANKING SUPERVISION WITH BARROSO
  • BARROSO SAYS EU SHOULD DISCUSS ELEMENTS OF 'BANKING UNION' -> we agree to hold another conference at a future time
And... that's it folks. Proceed to the egress.





Is The UK About To Engage In A Stealth Default?

If there was ever an article that should spark every British citizen to immediately shift their savings into physical gold this is it.  Basically, proposals are on the table to change the way inflation is calculated for bonds that payout based on the rate of change in prices.  Unsurprisingly, they are purposely attempting to use an alternative measure of inflation that allows substitution (so when people can no longer buy a steak and must spend the same amount of money on spam this shows up as no inflation)!  If this goes through, it is blatant theft.  This is why owning TIPS in the U.S. is a total fool’s game.  They will mark inflation to whatever level they want at the end of the day.  To whatever is most convenient at the moment.  You know, just like the banks mark their balance sheets.  But don’t take my word for it…





How Much Further Can Financial Stocks Fall?

It seems to us that the entire global financial system continues to walk the tight-rope of public-confidence in fictional reserve banking. Where it is European (or Chinese) bank runs or mega losses at US bank non-proprietary businesses, it appears the credit market has been becoming more and more fearsome of the endgame since last Summer's US downgrade when S&P made the impossible possible. While not all of the US financials have active CDS, the dependence between stocks and credit had remained high with current CDS levels inferring a drop of over 60% in XLF as the top 30 globally most systemically important financial entities reach their March 2009 peak in riskiness once again.





JPM's Tom Lee From May 2, 2011: "I Am Raising My 2011 S&P Target To 1475"

JP Morgan's Tom Lee has been getting a lot of airtime lately. We hope this ends soon, as anyone who has listened to this person in the past has consistently lost money. Here is Tom Lee from May 2, 2011 explaining the reasons for hiking his 2011 year-end S&P forecast to 1475. As a reminder, the year ended at 1250, or 16% away. In any other job, this would be ground for termination, and terminal discrediting within the industry. But apparently not on sell-side Wall Street, where being wrong constantly and consistently merely leads to ever bigger bonuses. It also allows comedy financial channels to plug empty airtime with idiotic soundbites.





MF Global Trustee May Pursue Claims Against Jon Corzine, Could Sue JP Morgan

In all the recent talk of economic gloom and doom, not to mention JP Morgan rehearsing for its role as Federal Reserve and failing miserably, some forgot that Jon Corzine still walks free. That may change soon if James Giddens, trustee for the liquidation of MF Global has his way. In a report filed today, Gidden says: "As attempts were made to transform MF Global into a full-service global investment bank, management failed to add to its Treasury Department and technology infrastructure, which was needed to meet the demands on global money management and liquidity." He continues: "My investigation has concluded that management’s actions, along with the lack of sufficient monitoring and systems, resulted in customer property being used during the liquidity crisis to fund the extraordinary liquidity drains elsewhere in the business, including margin calls on European sovereign debt positions." So someone was at fault: who? "I have determined there may be valid claims against individuals and entities. In my capacity as Trustee, I will make every effort to ensure that such claims result in the greatest possible returns to customers in an efficient and fair manner, whether those claims are pursued by my office or others." And specifically from his list of recommendations: "Provide for civil liability for officers and directors in the event of a commodities segregation shortfall." Well, we know there is a shortfall. So... why is Jon Corzine still walking free? Oh wait, Valukas said there were "colorable claims" against Lehman management too. Last we checked Dick Fuld is still out there... somewhere. But generally yes: it just has not been JPMorgan's year so far.





Goldman Cuts Q2 GDP Forecast To 2.0% Following Miserable Factory Orders

We suggested that Goldman would trim its Q2 forecast following the abysmal Factory orders number earlier. Sure enough, here it comes. To our surprise, however, the cut was on 0.1%. This can only mean that Hatzius has left more dry powder for further GDP cuts as more and more high frequency economic "misses" rise to the surface.



Peter Schiff: ‘Obama likes it when he thinks the free market is failing’

from RTAmerica:














The Three Trends Which Rule The Precious Metals Market, Part III


by Jeff Nielson, Bullion Bulls Canada:
At the beginning of this series I acknowledged that there was considerable analytical overlap among the three trends I would discuss and explain. In Part II, readers saw how the imminent Flight out of Paper will be a direct consequence of the excessive money-printing we are seeing today, along with maintaining artificial/fraudulent prices on the bankers’ paper currencies. Creating a massive imbalance today will lead to an exodus of capital tomorrow.
Similarly, in Part III we will see how the long-term destruction of the supply chain for the gold and silver markets is also a consequence of excessive money-printing. However, while the Flight out of Paper will be a direct consequence of excessive money-printing, the destruction of the precious metals supply-chain is an indirect consequence of excessive money-printing – along with price suppression.
The dynamic here is as simple as it is irrefutable: low prices cause high prices. What has caused the 10+ year bull-market for gold and silver, where prices have begun to move toward their fair market value? It was the 20-year bear market, where both the price of gold and the price of silver were driven well below the cost of production for approximately 90% of the world’s gold and silver mines.
Read More @ BullionBullsCanada.com




Major Cycle Bottom in Gold and Commodities

by Toby Connor, Gold Seek:
Stocks:
With Friday’s employment report a few things began to clear up. The first one is the correct cycle count on the stock market. With the break to new lows it’s now apparent that April 10th formed either a very stretched, or very short daily cycle. I tend to lean towards the very short cycle interpretation based on the trend line breaks I have illustrated in the chart below.
Gold:
I think it’s safe to say that Friday’s action took the short cycle scenario off the table (as well as the D-Wave continuation). Gold not only broke its intermediate trend line, but also formed a weekly swing. I think we have all the confirmation we need at this point to conclude that gold’s intermediate cycle bottomed two weeks ago.
Read More @ GoldSeek.com




Tucker: Bilderberg Wants Mitch Daniels As Romney’s VP

Former Prozac pusher becomes elite’s choice pick
by Paul Joseph Watson, Infowars:
According to veteran Bilderberg sleuth Jim Tucker’s source, Indiana Governor Mitch Daniels’ presence at the 2012 Bilderberg Group meeting indicates that he is the elite’s choice pick to become Mitt Romney’s running mate.
According to the source, Bilderberg members are eager to dissuade the Romney camp from choosing Kentucky Senator Rand Paul as VP, fearing that Paul’s constitutionalist stance will act to derail the agenda for increased centralization of power into a system of global governance.
Read More @ Infowars.com




Here Come the Car Robots Brought to You by Google and US Intel

The Daily Bell:
Robots will soon deliver pizza … Self-driving cars are about to be legalized in California. That same technology will enable the robot revolution … Futurists and science fiction writers have predicted for decades that one day smart robots would roll around town doing errands for us. Today, that future seems still far off. But it’s just around the corner. It’s all thanks to Google, as well as car companies and universities that are making incredible advances in the technology for self-driving cars. Google’s Prius is already a better driver than you are … – ComputerWorld
Dominant Social Theme: This is really great. Robots are the next big thing in car services.
Free-Market Analysis: So now one big reason for Google mapping becomes clear: to create an electronic grid that would allow for the use of robotic drivers. Why are we not surprised?
Read More @ TheDailyBell.com




Biowarfare alert: Is a mass bio-terror pandemic planned for 2012?

by J. D. Heyes, Natural News:
The Department of Homeland Security (DHS), despite America’s dubious history of using the population as a test tube for all sorts of crazy things, plans to release what it claims is a harmless bacteria in the Boston subway system this year as a way to test biological sensors, and at least some folks think it may be the start of a bio-terror pandemic with sinister implications.

In an early May report, CBS News/Boston said federal officials “test the subway sensors by releasing dead bacteria called B-subtilis. They say it is used in food supplements, has been rigorously tested and has no adverse health effects for low exposure in healthy people.”

The unknown variable here, then, is what sort of an effect will this bacteria have on unhealthy people – will they be able to handle it? Will it make them sicker?
Read More @ NaturalNews.com




Heres To You, Thomas Jefferson: Nickel-and-Dimed? Save the Nickels

from Silver Vigilante:
Good advice might be to save the nickels.
This might be a bitter pill to swallow indeed, when rappers like Jay-Z talk of how they spend what most make in a lifetime in a day, but the hoarding of nickels may turn out to be a proven method to preserve one’s buying ability, and here’s why:
As a result of copper prices nearing two year lows, the metal composition of the modern nickel, traded since 1946, is worth less than a nickel. The current price of copper is $3.26 per pound. However, as recently as the February 2011, when the price levitated around $4.5 per pound, the copper content in the U.S. nickel was as high as .0733 cents.

Read More @ SilverVigilante.com
 



Student Loans a Trillion-Dollar Boondoggle

by Rick Ackerman, Rick Ackerman.com:
Although we have come to expect every program created, touched or tweaked by the fine hand of government to eventually bog down in scandal, waste and bureaucratic inertia, the Obama administration has outdone itself with the student loan program. Recently it came to light that this trillion-dollar boondoggle is producing more and more borrowers who fail to graduate. Not only are they deeply in hock when they leave, they also lack the college degree that might enable them to land the jobs needed to pay off their loans. Fully 30% are dropping out these days, compared to less than 25% a decade ago, according to think tank Education Sector. Even worse news for taxpayers is that dropouts are far more likely to default on their loans, falling behind at four times the rate of graduates.
Read More @ RickAckerman.com





I think we have covered most of the topics...

21 Topics That Will Put You on the DHS Naughty List

from The Daily Sheeple:

If you’re trying to stay off the HOMELAND SECURITY watch list, there are a few topics that you should stay away from in your internet conversations with others.  Sure there’s a list of 377 words on the “naughty list” but who can remember 377 words?  For your personal safety, I’ve compiled a list of 21 topics to avoid.  Careful adherence to the following reminders should keep you safe, until such a time that the naughty list is expanded to contain the equally offensive words “a”, “and” and “the”.
1.)  Never talk about the weather.
EXTREME WEATHER is a subject to avoid.  If you are discussing HURRICANES, TORNADOES, TYPHOONS, TWISTERS, BLIZZARDS, SNOW, ICE, SLEET or other STORMS, even LIGHTNING, you may get tagged as an EXTREMIST.  If one of these DISASTERS should result in a FLOOD, MUDSLIDE or other EROSION, AVALANCHE, FOREST FIRE, BRUSH FIRE or WILDFIRE, be sure to also keep that information out of your correspondence. (You can still talk about rain, at this point.)
2.)  Federal AGENTS don’t like it when you talk about them.
Read More @ TheDailySheeple.com




Actually it's 1 Quadrillion 200 Trillion...

647,762,000,000,000 Reasons to Worry: The Derivatives Time Bomb

by John Galt:
The hits just keep coming and with $647 trillion reasons to worry, aka, the total notional derivatives now outstanding as of Q4 in 2011 per the Bank of International Settlements just released this afternoon and published officially on Monday (click here for the PDF of the full report). The really, really good news is that our Federal Reserve has this completely under control and the trillions of dollars in Credit Default Swaps (CDS) and European Interest Rate Swaps will as always settle without concern.
Right?
Of course the problem is that as one can see in the graph above, the amount of Gross Credit Exposure has returned to 2008 levels, something the world might want to pay attention to. Once the lessons of the mistakes of the past are ignored, the risk factor increases proportionally and with Europe teetering on the edge of a Lehman event, the increase in interest rate derivatives might well indicate a new risk that has not been accounted for:
A sudden collapse of the Euro currency below the 1.20 or even parity level.
Read More @ JohnGaltFLA.com




A New Cyclical Gold Stocks Bull Market Is Born

By Adam_Brochert, The Market Oracle:

And it is about time! After a 40% bear market (the second worst of the secular Gold stock bull so far), the large majority of investors and speculators have been worn out or scared out. The mid-May bottom was THE bottom in my opinion and we have a long way to go on the upside. The metals will rise as well, but Gold stocks will outperform this time.
Now, keep in mind that I favor physical Gold over Gold stocks over the long term and, in fact, own no Gold stocks for the long term. My long-term holdings are in physical Gold held outside the banking system. This is the safer place to be during this nasty secular common stock bear market, particularly when sovereign defaults are the theme of this next decade. We will not exit this secular common stock bear market until we have a new monetary system based on a modicum of common sense – in other words, one that involves Gold.
Read More @ TheMarketOracle.co.uk




Flu shots to be pushed onto all children in public schools

by D Holt, Natural News:
Experts have advised the government that all children should be given annual flu vaccine shots in schools. The advice, given as part of a consultation on preventable disease, said that is would raise immunity in the crowded environment of schools, and therefore in the wider community. It was claimed that the expense of undertaking such a massive vaccination program, would be balanced by the savings from not having to treat cases of flu. The treatment of seasonal flu is often rest, fluids and paracetamol or ibuprofen, a very cheap over the counter remedy. Anti-viral medicine is only considered for those with previous health problems such as a weakened immune system.
The vaccinations were recommended to be of the nasal spray type, as this is considered much safer and effective than injections, and that all children from the ages of five to seventeen should be included. The vaccinations would need to start in 2014 to allow for the acquisition of stocks for the first wave.
Read More @ NaturalNews.com


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