Wednesday, December 30, 2009

Gold rush grips China as people on buying spree


2010: I Expect a Lot Of Volatility Up And Down


Treasuries Set for Worst Year Since 1978 as U.S. Steps Up Sales


GMAC to get $3.5 billion more in government aid


Gold and Silver to Explode with Treasury Issuance in 2010




Jim Sinclair’s Commentary
This is the basic premise of the school of economic thought called "Management of Perspective Economics," expounded in public testimony by former Chairman Greenspan. The premise is if you can manage markets in a manner of significant public improvement then you can influence the thinking of business decision makers resulting in an improvement of business conditions. This is the first time in 79 years that MOPE has been applied in a situation of severe balance sheet deterioration to destruction. What the speaker promised below is "QE to infinity." I am sure she was in total shock when she ran into rampant disbelievers among the real estate group that are mainly born bulls.
Extend and Pretend ( Pray?) "What do want we should do, bankrupt all the banks??"
CRAIG: In George Ure’s column today (see link) he discusses comments from a friend who attended a very senior level CRE conference. To protect the banks from massive write-downs and bankruptcy it appears the Treasury is working towards a policy of "extend and pretend" on the massive amount of CRE mortgages that are coming due.
"Here is the real stunner. A senior person at Treasury said to a small group of us that it is now official Treasury policy to extend and pretend on [commercial] real estate loans. In other words, the policy statement from last week says, if you can make an analysis that says even if the current value is less than the loan, if you can do a spreadsheet that shows if you extend for 3-5 years, and if the economy gets better, and if the loan can be amortized down to where the loan is no longer more than the value, then the lender does not have to take an impairment -write down. Loans are to be modified by rate reductions, deferral of reserves, deferral of amortization or what ever.
Just NOT principal reduction. This is just like they are doing in housing.
Giant make believe. The free market seeking an equilibrium price is no longer economic policy. In short, the working of the free market is suspended. She went on to say it was administration policy that they will create new employment and by doing so they will boost the economy, and so then real estate values will return to old levels. There were 50 of the most senior and smartest real estate people in the room. They ripped her to pieces. It looked like one of the town hall meetings of August, except everyone there was a very senior, polished professional. At one point everyone was calling out or moaning at her. It was clear to all she had been given a few talking points and she was told to stick to them no matter how foolish she looked. The group told her in no uncertain terms this is terrible public policy. They said for jobs to be created you need to lower rents so the cost of occupancy was at a level to encourage more hiring. If the loan is kept at old levels and building values not reduced, then landlords can’t reduce rents to where they need to be to make taking space by tenants economically viable. Retailers costs remain higher than they should be making it harder to lower prices to induce sales. So there is a massive make believe going on. When I pressed the issue of political interference she said -what do you want us to do, bankrupt all the banks.
http://urbansurvival.com/week.htm

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