Tuesday, November 30, 2010

Currency Crisis! So What Happens if the Dollar and the Euro Both Collapse?


World at a Boil with War and Economic Crisis


Debt Bubble Chronicles: And Heeeeere’s the European “Lehman Event”


Following Wikileaks Revelations, The Tricky Dick Rushes To The Rescue, Sees Bank of America Worth $21 In Bankruptcy

 

Without Much Fanfare, The HSKAX Is Back To August 2007 "Quant Implosion" Levels



While everyone knows that it was two and a half decades of imbecilic monetary policy courtesy of the Monstro [sic] that caused the credit bubble, few things were as much of a direct proximal cause of the market crash as the August 2007 quant collapse. And few indices tracked the obliteration of the M/N quant landscape that followed as well as the HSKAX (below). Well, after two years of painful grinding (for the market neutrals), the HSKAX is back to the same level to which it plunged in that week in early August 2007. What does it mean? Who knows, suffice to say that the market not only stopped working when the quants were all briefly destroyed back in 2007, but it marked the all time high in the S&P. We are now back to those same levels.Only this time instead ot the Market Neutrals providing the traditional market liquidity it is the HFTs, the NYSE DMMs, and the New York Fed. What happens next is anyone's guess.




Posted: Nov 30 2010     By: Dan Norcini      Post Edited: November 30, 2010 at 9:32 pm
Filed under: Trader Dan Norcini
Dear CIGAs,
Click either chart to enlarge today’s Monthly Gold charts in PDF format with commentary from Trader Dan Norcini
gold monthly 11-2010_Page_1
gold monthly 11-2010_Page_2




Posted: Nov 30 2010     By: Dan Norcini      Post Edited: November 30, 2010 at 9:07 pm
Filed under: Trader Dan Norcini

Dear CIGAs,
Click chart to enlarge today’s Gold/Bond Ratio chart in PDF format with commentary from Trader Dan Norcini
Gold-Bonds 11-2010


The Great Copper Heist.


The Stench of Growing Economic Decay Grows Stronger   

 
Spain Could Be Forced to Seek a Bailout Within Months, Says Barclays   


EU Rescue Costs Start to Threaten Germany Itself   

 
Spain, Portugal and Belgium to Follow Ireland into the Abyss 

Interpol Issues International Arrest Warrant For Julian Assange For "Sex Crimes"



Per BreakingNews.com, Interpol has just issued an international arrest warrant for Julian Assange. The offense listed: SEX CRIMES. And somehow Interpol does not have access to the Internet and is unable to pull an image of the wanted criminal. Unclear if Ben Bernanke will follow suit in the same Sex Crime category for repeated involuntary fornication with the world's middle class. 
 
 

US Mint Sells Record 4.2 Million American Eagle Silver Coins In November

 

Portuguese PM Response To Downgrade: "We Dot Not Need Any Help"

Of course, he will need not only help, but a bailout, in one week when his bonds are trading a 10%+. In the meantime, let the comedy continue.



S&P Places Portugal On Watch Negative, May Cut A- Rating





China Approves Fund That Will Invest In Foreign Gold ETFs, Opening Avenue For Millions Of Mainland Investors

And here is the catalyst: China has approved a fund that will invest in gold exchange-traded funds outside the country, opening the door to mainland China investors who face negative real interest rates on their bank deposits and want to hedge against inflation. Beijing-based Lion Fund Management Co. said they received approval from the China Securities Regulatory Commission on Monday to proceed with the fund. Next stop: gold much higher as the bubble mania is really unleased in such ETFs as GLD, UGL and PHYS.

 



Posted: Nov 30 2010     By: Jim Sinclair      Post Edited: November 30, 2010 at 5:24 pm
Filed under: In The News

Jim Sinclair’s Commentary
Buy back mortgage contracts are getting pushed back from the banksters. You don’t think the banksters want to own that crap they sold to Fannie and Freddie do you?
The expected amount is to exceed $120 billion in buy back contract executions so far refused. This is just another small problem for the Western financial world.
Securitized debt was manufactured to be sold, not to be bought back.

Banks Resisting Fannie, Freddie Demands to Buy Back Mortgages 2010-11-30 05:00:01.2 GMT
By Lorraine Woellert and Clea Benson

Fannie Mae and Freddie Mac are facing growing resistance as they attempt to push failed home loans off their books and onto the balance sheets of banks including Bank of America Corp. and JPMorgan Chase & Co.
The two government-owned mortgage companies are enforcing contracts that require lenders to buy back loans that didn’t meet underwriting standards. At the end of September, the companies reported, banks hadn’t responded to $13 billion in buyback requests. A third of those were at least four months old and Freddie Mac has begun to assess penalties for the delays.
Lenders say they are resisting buybacks because McLean, Virginia-based Freddie Mac and Washington-based Fannie Mae are unfairly second-guessing old appraisals, accusing originators of failing to verify income, or pinning failed loans on minor technical errors. Larger banks say they can handle the potential losses. Some smaller lenders say the strain could sink them.
About 40 percent of repurchase requests are rescinded after lenders provide additional paperwork, said John A. Courson, chief executive officer of the Mortgage Bankers Association, a Washington trade group.
“We’re burning a lot of stockholder resources, and clearly a lot of Fannie and Freddie resources, to have 40 percent of these things rescinded,” Courson said in an interview. “It hurts the banks and frankly we’re wasting government resources, too.”
More…



Posted: Nov 30 2010     By: Daniel Duval      Post Edited: November 30, 2010 at 1:42 pm
Filed under: Trader Dan Norcini

Dear CIGAs,
Considering the fact that today is the end of the month and that during such times, many markets that have been in uptrends see some price weakness as traders book profits, gold, and silver for that matter, displayed impressive strength as buyers went to work. One can only suspect that December should start off very well for the fans of both metals based on what we saw today as overhead resistance levels were shattered and both markets appear to have broken out of recent consolidation patterns and look poised to move higher.
If that wasn’t enough, Gold priced in terms of the Japanese Yen made a 27 year high at today. When priced in terms of the British Pound and the Euro, it set new lifetime highs respectively. It also is within a few francs of setting a lifetime high in terms of the Swiss Franc.
Clearly unrest regarding the sovereign debt crises of some of the Euro nations is bringing strong demand from the continent into gold and silver for that matter as silver made a new record high when priced in terms of the Euro.
One can easily make the case that a crisis of confidence in the current monetary system is manifesting itself in no uncertain terms. Seeing that the fiat system relies on the confidence of the investing public to support it, where does this now leave the global investment community? Bonds may be moving higher as a safe haven but they are a fool’s charade, a mirage, that will leave those who chase them forlorn and broken. When all the glamour is swept aside, they are nothing more than mere IOU’s from nations who have spent themselves into a black hole.
Bonds look to me like they are at a crossroads here. The long bond has moved back up to retest the former broken support level near 129^15. That level is serving as resistance now. If they fall back away from this level it will bring in additional selling and push them back down towards 125. If they can muster a close back above this level, they will have once again managed to snatch victory from the jaws of defeat. That is the reason it is difficult to be too aggressive towards these things. There are so many undercurrents that are impacting their price movement at this time.
The Dollar continues trekking merrily higher and it is benefiting from continued woes regarding the various nations that are having problems in the EU. It looks like it has a shot at moving towards 83.50 where it should attract some rather strong selling even with the current sad state of the European monetary union. As stated in my recent radio interview, all of these fiat currencies have their own particular set of problems and that is why gold is divorcing itself from its former nearly tic by tic inverse movement with the Dollar. The yellow metal is trading as a currency in its own stead and has pretty much been ignoring the Dollar of late.
I do not see much in the way of overhead resistance to Silver until it nears 28.90. If it closes above that level, it will run to $30 in short order.
The HUI needs a closing print above 557 to encourage additional buying and to give it a decent shot at challenging the 580 level. Many individual companies within the mining sector are going to show some impressive profits come reporting time.
Crude oil looks like it has established a pretty solid floor near the $80 barrel level. It appears to be attempting to “grind higher” on the weekly price chart.
Click chart to enlarge today’s hourly action in Gold in PDF format with commentary from Trader Dan Norcini
clip_image001

Calling Dr. Copper CIGA Eric
The growing positive divergence of trend energy relative, REV(E), to the price of copper portends another up phase. The message from the copper market remains a sharp contrast to the experts calling for an end of the commodity bull due to a strengthening dollar. Building strength in the copper trend suggest that differential rates of depreciation in the paper world do not define strength.
iPath DJAIG Copper (JJC): clip_image001[1]
More…



Eric,
It looks like a Weimar experience to me.
Jim

"Set them Up Fellas" – COT Equity Money Flows CIGA Eric
Connected money is buying weakness.
S&P 500 and the Commercial Traders COT Futures and Options Equity Diffusion Index (DI): clip_image001
Meanwhile, retail money, often dependent on the work of ‘experts’, are selling weakness.
S&P 500 and the Nonreportable Traders COT Futures and Options Equity Diffusion Index (DI): clip_image002
Who do you think is right?
More…

As Euro Tumbles, Gold Squeeze Gets Vicious

 

Gold In Euros Breaks Out, As Inedible Metal Hits All Time Highs In Europe

 

US-Europe Decoupling At All Time Record As SovX - Implied Correlation Spread Indicates Historic Domestic Complacency


Case Shiller Confirms House Market Deterioration Accelerates

Contagion Continues With Belgian CDS Spreads Surging Following Weak 3/6 Month Bill Auction, EURUSD Drops Under 1.30

 

Presenting The Belgian Donut

 

Here’s Something That You Will Not Find Elsewhere – Proof That Ireland Will Have To Default…

Chinese Selloff Intensifies As Traders Expect Imminent Rate Hike Following China State Council Comments

 

Next Stop On Shanghai Composite: 2719; Subsequent Supports At 2574 And 2320




Guest Post: Some Observations on Austerity



The Footnote On The Irish Bailout Plan

 

EU Buys Ireland on Cyber Monday, Comes with Free Shipping, 6 Pack of Guinness, and Plenty of Broken Dreams


Posted: Nov 30 2010     By: David Duval      Post Edited: November 30, 2010 at 12:34 am
Filed under: David Duval
Dear CIGAs,
BHP Billiton’s attempted takeover of Potash Corporation of Saskatchewan presents an interesting dilemma for Canada’s free enterprise government and its provincial counterpart in Saskatchewan.
While politically supporting the concept of open markets, the Harper administration caved in to a backlash from the Premiers of the Western provinces – and from other Canadians for that matter – who felt the country’s natural resources are being plundered by large multi-nationals.
Any objective observer could probably find some justification for concluding that the takeover activity relating to several large Canadian corporations in recent years has also been happening on a not-so-level playing field – a sentiment that is hardly new in Canada or anywhere else for that matter.
Other countries with bountiful natural resources have found themselves in a similar ideological dilemma – most notably Australia which has vast quantities of strategic mineral resources. The United States has also been somewhat guarded with respect to foreign investment in its economy, especially from the Middle East.
Whatever ideological camp you find yourself in you have to admire BHP for its moxie. Offering a paltry 16% premium to the market price for a world class asset like PotashCorp takes a lot of it. No doubt BHP recognized it was the only company in the world with the capacity to fund a $40 billion acquisition in the minerals sector – a virtually unassailable position for any company. That realization alone probably figured in the premium it offered above market.
Criticism concerning the Canadian government’s rejection of the takeover bid has been relatively mute and understandably so. For one thing, the takeover attempt is hardly an anomaly in the North American market which is becoming increasingly sensitive to merger and acquisitions activity in critical market segments.
Several years ago, the American government prevented Dubai Ports from purchasing port management businesses in six major U.S. seaports under the premise that it represented a national security risk. The government’s reasoning seemed somewhat contradictory at the time given the fact port security would have remained a Federal government responsibility. In addition, Dubai is a key middle-east ally in the War on Terror and the U.S. has military access to its land, ports and airspace for operations in Iraq and Afghanistan.
An attempt the previous year by Chinese oil company, CNOOC to acquire Unocal Corp. was vetoed by the U.S. government for national security reasons. CNOOC subsequently withdrew its $18.4 billion bid for Unocal, ending a politically charged takeover battle that brought to the forefront U.S. concern over China’s growing economic clout. Chevron Corp., the second-largest U.S. oil company, subsequently completed the acquisition of Unocal even though its cash-and-stock offer was about $700 million less.
Canada’s Sudbury nickel camp and the rich Voisey’s Bay nickel deposit in Labrador fell under foreign control in 2005 and 2006 when Brazilian iron ore producer, Vale, acquired Inco Limited and Xstrata acquired Falconbridge, the number two nickel producer in the Sudbury camp. Critics of the Inco takeover noted, perhaps justifiably, that the Brazilian government would never allow the takeover of Vale by a foreign entity, meaning the international playing field for takeovers was hardly level.
In Africa, the situation is notably different in several respects, especially in emerging economies. Few of these countries have home grown corporations that are attractive takeover targets. However, many African countries are seeking a greater share of the wealth produced by foreign companies which is fair game as long as their fiscal regimes remain competitive with foreign jurisdictions. Nonetheless, some radical elements within African nations (most notably South Africa) want their governments to expropriate assets from companies and run them for the benefit of the state. Anyone who’s taken the time to read George Orwell’s “Animal Farm” knows what type of society (and economy) that would create.
It’s difficult to envision the government’s decision on PotashCorp having a major impact on foreign investment in the Canadian minerals industry. In fact, the government did not intervene when Sinopec – China’s largest refiner –offered $US4.65 billion to acquire the 9% stake owned by ConocoPhillips in the Syncrude oil sands.  Under the Syncrude partnership agreement, all the owners have the right to market their share of production for their own account.  However, the Globe & Mail reported recently that the Federal government will use its regulatory power to stop Sinopec from exporting raw oil sands bitumen and refining it abroad to take advantage of looser environmental rules.
Clearly, every county has a vested interest in protecting industries that are vital to its national economy- especially in the case where control passes to a foreign power. On the other hand, smaller bites might be more palatable to most governments.
PotashCorp was unique because it would have seen control of the world’s largest fertilizer enterprise fall into the hands of a huge multi-national conglomerate. This probably guarantees that you won’t see takeover interest in Canadian companies with dominant positions in critical metal markets anytime soon – world class uranium producer Cameco Corporation being one of the better examples.


Posted: Nov 30 2010     By: Jim Sinclair      Post Edited: November 30, 2010 at 12:30 am
Filed under: Martin Armstrong
Dear CIGAs,
Click the image below to open Martin Armstrong’s latest in PDF format.
clip_image002








Monday, November 29, 2010

France seizes €36 billion of pension assets. We're told that this was done to pay off some of their welfare debt. I thought that the French had done away with pissoirs, but apparently they still have a very large one. But of course the French are tres brillant, so I shouldn't doubt their judgment.



Hungary Follows Argentina in Pension-Fund Ultimatum, `Nightmare' for Some



It's Official: The Economy Is Set To Starve



Millions cashless in bank glitch. (A preview of coming attractions?)



Euro Debt Crisis Bankruptcy Bailout Queue, Protect Savings & Deposits From Banks Going Bankrupt!



The Fiscal Trap: Quantitative easing won’t solve our deeper problem



Why Ben Bernanke is Wrong



Is the Feds POMO really intended to help insiders sell shares before collapse?






 Quote of the Day...Think about it...


"I foresaw that, in time, it would please God to supply me with bread. And yet here I was perplexed again, for I neither knew how to grind or make meal of my corn, or indeed how to clean it and part it; nor, if made into meal, how to make bread of it; and if how to make it, yet I knew not how to bake it. These things being added to my desire of having a good quantity for store, and to secure a constant supply, I resolved not to taste any of this crop but to preserve it all for seed against the next season; and in the meantime to employ all my study and hours of working to accomplish this great work of providing myself with corn and bread. It might be truly said, that now I worked for my bread. I believe few people have thought much upon the strange multitude of little things necessary in the providing, producing, curing, dressing, making, and finishing this one article of bread." - Daniel Defoe (1661–1731), Robinson Crusoe

Wikileaks Next Target: "A Big US Bank"

Honest distributor of leaked data or a clever PsyOps front, one can not deny that whatever it is, Wikileaks does share some unique information with the world (as to how it is interpreted is a different story). Yet for the most part, the bulk of the organization's recent exposures have focused on the US military and away from the private sector, and thus away from that which is really important in today's world: money (of a paper representation thereof). Which is we read with interest in the latest Julian Assange interview with Forbes' Andy Greenberg that next on the docket of Wikileaks disclosure is not some facebooky look into the gossip world of international espionage or the foreign service, but something far more tangible and relevant: "A Big US Bank."

European bond trouble worsens despite bailout for Ireland

posted by Eric De Groot at Eric De Groot - 6 hours ago
Scott, The strength in the US Dollar, an illusion revealed by the global strength in gold, will disappear as fast as it materialized from media-driven hype. "Connected" players are repositioning... [[ Thi...



Operation Euro
posted by Eric De Groot at Eric De Groot - 1 hour ago

Goodbye Irish Sovereignty: EU Commissioner Olli Rehn Issues His First Directive As Overlord Of The Emerald Isle

 

Simon Black Advocates Leaving America As The "Most Effective" Way To Fight The Battle With "The Mob-Installed Government Beast"

 

Neil Reynolds: Could gold once again be our guide?

 

Jim Sinclair’s Commentary
Peter Schiff makes an interesting comparison.



Posted: Nov 29 2010     By: Jim Sinclair      Post Edited: November 29, 2010 at 12:51 pm
Filed under: In The News

Jim Sinclair’s Commentary
Please review this important video. Putin speaks on the Euro. Russia and China takes this opportunity the crisis gives to get closer to Euroland.
Historically when everyone runs from a situation Russia and China take the opportunity to benefit.
The banksters will move to Euroland to profit from a much closer economic relationship with Russia and China. The West has no concept of this.






Putin: Russia will join the euro one day
Vladimir Putin said it is "quite possible" that Russia will one day join the eurozone and create a currency that would eclipse the US dollar as the global reserve standard.
By Louise Armitstead 5:30PM GMT 26 Nov 2010
Speaking at a conference in Germany the Russian prime minister, who is in the country for talks with Chancellor Angela Merkel, said he was convinced the euro would stabilise and strengthen despite the current sovereign debt crisis.
He said: "Yes, there are problems. But the economic policy of the European Central Bank and of the governments of leading European economies … convinces me that the stability of the euro will be ensured."
He added: "We know there are problems in Portugal, Greece, Ireland and the euro is wobbling a bit. On the whole it is a solid, good currency and it should take its place, its role as a reserve currency."
More…




Jim Sinclair’s Commentary
Just in case you have forgotten, do not be lead down the primrose path by a temporary mirror image to the euro versus the US dollar.

Dollar to Become World’s ‘Weakest Currency,’ JPMorgan Predicts November 17, 2010, 10:41 PM EST
By Shigeki Nozawa

Nov. 18 (Bloomberg) — The dollar may fall below 75 yen next year as it becomes the world’s “weakest currency” due to the Federal Reserve’s monetary-easing program, according to JPMorgan & Chase Co.
The U.S. central bank, along with those in Japan and Europe, will keep interest rates at record lows in 2011 as they seek to boost economic growth, said Tohru Sasaki, head of Japanese rates and foreign-exchange research at the second-largest U.S. bank by assets. U.S. policy makers may take additional easing steps following the $600 billion bond-purchase program announced this month depending on inflation and the labor market, he said.
“The U.S. has the world’s largest current-account deficit but keeps interest rates at virtually zero,” Sasaki said at a forum in Tokyo yesterday. “The dollar can’t avoid the status as the weakest currency.”
The Fed said on Nov. 3 it will buy $75 billion of Treasuries a month through June to cap borrowing costs. The central bank has kept its benchmark rate in a range of zero to 0.25 percent since December 2008. The Bank of Japan on Oct. 5 cut its key rate to a range of zero to 0.1 percent and set up a 5 trillion yen ($59.9 billion) asset-purchase fund.
The dollar traded at 83.38 yen as of 12:04 p.m. in Tokyo after falling to a 15-year low of 80.22 on Nov. 1. The greenback declined to post-World War II low of 79.75 yen in April 1995. The U.S. currency has declined against 12 of its 16 most-traded counterparts this year, according to data compiled by Bloomberg.
More…




Jim Sinclair’s Commentary
Never take a government job.
The message here clearly leaves the entire burden on the Federal Reserve. That in turn means QE to infinity.

President Obama to Announce a Pay Freeze for Most Federal Workers By PETER BAKER
Published: November 29, 2010

WASHINGTON — President Obama plans to announce a two-year pay freeze for civilian federal workers on Monday in his latest move intended to demonstrate concern over sky-high deficit spending.
The president’s proposal will effectively wipe out plans for a 1.4 percent across-the-board raise in 2011 for 2.1 million civilian federal government employees, including those working at the Defense Department, but the freeze would not affect the nation’s uniformed military personnel. The president has frozen the salaries of his own top White House staff members since taking office 22 months ago.
“Clearly this is a difficult decision,” said Jeffrey Zients, deputy director of the Office of Management and Budget and the government’s chief performance officer. “Federal workers are hard-working and dedicated.” But given the deficit, Mr. Zients added, “we believe this is the first of many difficult steps ahead.”
The pay freeze will save $2 billion in the current fiscal year that ends in September 2011, $28 billion over five years and more than $60 billion over 10 years, officials said. That represents just a tiny dent in a $1.3 trillion annual deficit, but it offers a symbolic gesture toward public anger over unemployment, the anemic economic recovery and rising national debt.
Mr. Zients said the president planned to announce the plan on Monday because of an approaching legal deadline for submitting a pay plan to Congress. But by doing it now, the president also effectively gets ahead of Republicans who have been talking about making such a move once they take over the House, and assume more seats in the Senate, in January. Some Republicans have gone further, proposing to slash federal worker salaries.
More…



Posted: Nov 29 2010     By: Jim Sinclair      Post Edited: November 29, 2010 at 12:38 pm
Filed under: Jim's Mailbox

Pluses, Minuses for Muni Bonds
CIGA Eric
It has been shown time and time again that on Wall Street, people very often fail to see the thing that is right in front of them.
Jesse Livermore

This is the principle reason why investors must follow money rather then media-driven reality. The ability of money to expand and multiple depends on its ability to discern the truth despite the experts.
The municipal bond market continues to show signs of stress. Rising yields and increasing volatility depict a market once considered boring. This highly unusual action, nevertheless, has gone nearly unnoticed. The bailouts in the EU remain on the center stage for the media outlets. While out of sight and mind may shape perceptions about state of municipal finances, it has no bearing on capital flows. Similar to the weak nations within the EU, capital smells blood in the water. They will press a weak position until a bailout of the State, either direct or indirect, is required.
Investing in municipal bonds used to mean one thing: boring.
Stodgy governments, authorities and municipalities would issue bonds backed by tolls, taxes and other income. The yields weren’t always splendiferous, but they were usually tax-free, and the issuers almost never defaulted. The ability to raise taxes helped ensure that bondholders would almost always get repaid.
But a combination of factors has turned the muni-bond market into another white-knuckle investing zone. A number of states (hint: California) face brutal budget equations. Local governments have very challenging pension obligations that will require more muni-bond financing. And the federal government’s big spending ways are crowding the fixed-income market
Source: online.wsj.com
More…



Dear Eric,
Dr. Roubini just discovered this hidden truth?
Regards,
Jim

Targeting the Weak Hands Is Easy Money CIGA Eric
Let’s face it; this mess is not limited to Greece, Ireland, Portugal, Italy, France, and/or unique to the EU zone. The state of the US union is equally as fragile despite mono-focused analysis of a multidimensional problem. California, New York, Illinois, etc. have seen borrowing costs soar as they attempt to fix their budgetary holes with more debt. When capital finishes its “Euro play”, it will move against the weak hands to force another centralized bailout. Its easy money to press the weak hands, and the local governments will scream “save me” so loud that it will be impossible to ignore.
Headline: Roubini sees Portugal bailout, possibly Spain as well
Portugal will take an international bailout and Spain may be next as Madrid has underestimated the cost of cleaning up Spain’s financial system, economist Nouriel Roubini said on Monday.
Greece will eventually have to restructure its debt and a weak growth outlook will prompt central banks, including the European Central Bank, to ease policy further, said Roubini, who is known as Dr. Doom for predicting the credit crisis before 2007. He also warned on Monday that there was still the risk of a double-dip recession in the United States.
Source: finance.yahoo.com
More…

Obama To Freeze Government Salaries At All Time High

 

Bets Against Europe Are Unlikely to Lose
By: Rick Ackerman, Rick's Picks

 

More Chinese Fraud: Kerrisdale Claims China Education Alliance (NYSE:CEU) Is "Mostly A Hoax" - Stock Monkeyhammered

 

First $2.17 Billion POMO Closes: Fed Frontrunning Success Rate: 93%

 

Weak Italian, Belgian Bond Auctions Send EUR Lower, Sovereign Spreads Surging

 

European CDS Bloodbath Increasingly Threatens Core

 

Guest Post: Lies Across America

 

Don't Raise the Debt Ceiling!
By: Dr. Ron Paul, U.S. Congressman




The Art of Speculation
By: Howard S. Katz




Gold Rises vs. Falling Euro & Stock-Markets as €85bn Irish Bail-Out Branded "Vicious"
By: Adrian Ash, BullionVault

Sunday, November 28, 2010

Guest Post: Ireland, Please Do the World a Favor and Default

 

The Definitive Unwrapping Of The "Irish Package"

 

Following Hungary And Ireland, France Is Next To Seize Pension Funds

 

The Euro Has Become Schrodinger's Money: Goldman Sees European Currency As Both Alive And Dead

 

As Sliding EURUSD Takes Out Friday Lows, Market Response To Bailout Is "Concerning"

 

Weekly Recap, And Upcoming Calendar - $39 Billion In Monetizations In The Next Week


US Military War Gaming for Large Scale Economic Breakdown and Civil Unrest



Federal Unemployment Benefits Set To Expire 


The Unemployed Need Help!   


Save The Dollar, Not The Fed


Are Expert Networks About To Be Exposed As The Ringleader In The Biggest Insider Trading Bust In History?


Debt commission co-chairman predicts 'bloodbath'.

Europe Goes "Completely Mad" At Suggestion Of Irish Default Demanded By 57% Of Irish Population

 

Ex Domestically Sourced Pension Funds, Blended Irish Rescue Interest Rate Is 7.25%

 

Olli Rehn: No Haircuts For Senior Bondholders

 

Irish Government Statement On EU - IMF Programme for Ireland: Interest Rate To Be 5.8%

 

Is US Foreign Policy Crippled Following Latest Wikileaks Dump?



Of Fake "Bogeymen" And Artificial "Security"

 

It's Not Just the "Peripheral" European Countries ... Financial Contagion Could Spread to "Core" Eurozone Countries and the U.S.



Your Future...It's no longer a question of IF...Just a question of When...
One morning soon you will awake to find prices of almost everything you need to live (Food, clothing, fuel), have Doubled in Price...and this will happen many times...Read and study Currency Induced Cost Push Inflation and Weimar Hyperinflation...
In the early spring 2011 the current high prices of Commodities (Up 18-80%so far) will start to hit store shelves. As prices rise... many on fixed incomes will not be able to afford to buy food...


Weimar hyperinflation "When Money Dies" PDF file
Posted: Nov 28 2010     By: Jim Sinclair      Post Edited: November 28, 2010 at 3:15 pm
Filed under: In The News

Jim Sinclair’s Commentary
QE to infinity goes for the EU too.
Next will be Portugal, Spain and Italy getting bailed out. This will happen all at once or in series.
Currency wars will continue, resulting in currency induced cost push inflation.

EU backs Irish bailout By Jan Strupczewski and Julien Toyer
BRUSSELS — The European Union approved an 85 billion euro ($115 billion) rescue for Ireland Sunday and outlined a permanent system to resolve Europe’s debt crisis, in which investors could share the cost of any future default.
Finance ministers from the 16-nation euro zone, anxious to prevent market contagion engulfing Portugal and Spain, unanimously endorsed an emergency loan package to help Dublin cover bad bank debts and bridge a huge budget deficit.
"Ministers concur with the (European) Commission and the European Central Bank that providing a loan to Ireland is warranted to safeguard financial stability in the Euro area and in the European Union as a whole," Jean-Claude Juncker, chairman of the euro area ministers, announced at a news conference.
The Irish government said 35 billion euros was earmarked to help restructure its shattered banks, of which 10 billion would be an immediate capital injection and the rest a contingency fund. Ireland will contribute 17.5 billion euros of its own cash and pension reserves toward the bank rescue.
The rest of the emergency loans, which Dublin said were granted at an average interest rate of 5.8 percent, will help cover the giant hole the banks have blown in public finances. The IMF will contribute 22.5 billion euros.
More…



Jim Sinclair’s Commentary
Only 3 weeks ago these people were blasting Bernanke for his mad venture into QE. Now the trillion dollar Euroland bailout fund is too small.
That means one trillion in QE in Euroland is too small and must be expanded.
Spain and Portugal are next, either one after another or both together.
QE is going to infinity.

Ireland bailout: fears mount that eurozone fund is too small
European commission dismisses remarks by Axel Weber, head of German central bank, that €440bn Financial Stability Facility may need more money to secure euro against bond markets
Ian Traynor in Brussels
The European Union is expected to announce a bailout of about €85bn (£72bn) for Ireland on Sunday, senior EU officials disclosed tonight amid worries that Europe’s €750bn safety net for the single currency might not be enough to cope with the spreading emergency.
Brian Lenihan, the beleaguered Irish finance minister, is to travel to Brussels or Luxembourg, sources said, to make the bailout statement with Jean-Claude Juncker, Luxembourg’s prime minister and head of the Eurogroup of 16 single currency countries, and Olli Rehn, EU commissioner for economic and financial affairs. The announcement is to be preceded by a meeting of eurozone finance ministers to rubber-stamp the bailout, probably by video conference.
With Ireland the first EU country to tap into the emergency fund – Greece’s €110bn rescue in the spring was done separately – there was intense speculation today that the fund was not big enough to secure the euro against the bond markets after Axel Weber, head of Germany’s central bank, said it may need to be increased.
German media reports today claimed that the commission was lobbying for the largest part of the fund – the €440bn European Financial Stability Facility (EFSF) – to be doubled. Berlin promptly said there was no chance of increasing the fund, to which it is the biggest contributor, and Brussels dismissed the reports.
Speaking in Paris , Weber, a contentious figure who has been critical of the Greek bailout, said €750bn "should be more than enough to counter attacks on the eurozone. If it’s not enough, then one will have to increase this commitment."
More…




Jim Sinclair’s Commentary

This all started as country building but all it built was a new mafia.
When Afghanistan’s vice president visited the UAE last year, he was carrying $52 million in cash.

Cables Obtained by WikiLeaks Shine Light Into Secret Diplomatic Channels By SCOTT SHANE and ANDREW W. LEHREN
Published: November 28, 2010

WASHINGTON — A cache of a quarter-million confidential American diplomatic cables, most of them from the past three years, provides an unprecedented look at backroom bargaining by embassies around the world, brutally candid views of foreign leaders and frank assessments of nuclear and terrorist threats.
Some of the cables, made available to The New York Times and several other news organizations, were written as recently as late February, revealing the Obama administration’s exchanges over crises and conflicts. The material was originally obtained by WikiLeaks, an organization devoted to revealing secret documents. WikiLeaks intends to make the archive public on its Web site in batches, beginning Sunday.
The anticipated disclosure of the cables is already sending shudders through the diplomatic establishment, and could conceivably strain relations with some countries, influencing international affairs in ways that are impossible to predict.
Secretary of State Hillary Rodham Clinton and American ambassadors around the world have been contacting foreign officials in recent days to alert them to the expected disclosures. A statement from the White House on Sunday said: “We condemn in the strongest terms the unauthorized disclosure of classified documents and sensitive national security information.”
“President Obama supports responsible, accountable, and open government at home and around the world, but this reckless and dangerous action runs counter to that goal,” the statement said. “By releasing stolen and classified documents, WikiLeaks has put at risk not only the cause of human rights but also the lives and work of these individuals.”
More…

Smart Money Preparing For Sell Off Like Never Before

 

It Starts: Live Telecast Of Eurogroup/ECOFIN Meeting On Bailout

 

All The Latest On The Irish Bailout - Up To €17.5 Billion Of Rescue To Be Funded By Irish Pension Fund Contribution Redirection

 

Ireland Says Bailout Talks Complete, EU to OK Deal

Saturday, November 27, 2010

Most Overhyped Black Friday In History A Dud? ShopperTrak Reports Just 0.3% Increase In Black Friday Sales Over 2009, Drop In Real Terms

The shopping day that was supposed to signal the renaissance of the US consumer, and justify the massive overhiring by US retailers (not to mention the completely dislocated from reality surge in stock price for razor thin margin retailers like Amazon), is increasingly seeming to be a dud. WSJ reports, citing channel checker ShopperTrak, that "Black Friday sales rose only slightly from a year ago even though more shoppers visited stores, retail traffic monitor ShopperTrak said Saturday, setting the stage for another uncertain holiday season for retailers. Sales increased 0.3% to $10.7 billion, according to ShopperTrak, which installs monitoring devices in stores to gauge traffic. Traffic rose by 2.2%, ShopperTrak said." For the observant ones out there, this is in nominal terms: adjusted for inflation there was actually a drop in end sales. Even so, the primary reason for the disappointment is that Black Friday actually started early on in the month, with most retailers offering comparable loss-leading deals such as those seen on the Friday after the national holiday early in November, reducing the actual purchasing power for the all important day. "The smaller than expected increase is due in part to discounts offered earlier in November as well as online-only promotions, ShopperTrak founder Bill Martin said. Traffic to stores was up over 6% for the first two weeks of November, an early boost that could affect retailers' performance in the coming weeks, he said." Last but not least it should also be noted that with millions of Americans living mortgage payment free for over 18 months now, and using money that should be going to banks (and nationalized GSEs) to instead purchase shoe closet 32 inch TVs, that sooner or later the bulk of American taxpayers who funded yet another top line (but certainly not margin) bonanza for the nation's retailers may soon say enough, and vote against further subsidies of zombie companies whose existence allows for continued US consumer "strength."



European Debt Crisis Cheat Sheet






"desperation measures" news from Ireland: Pension reserve funds to be spent on banks



Another Random Act of Culture: Christmas Food Court Flash Mob, Hallelujah Chorus


The Guardian reports: Belgium joins financial markets' hit list.


Gold Is George Soros' Biggest Holding  

 
Silver Shortage, A Sign of Manipulation?  


Nutting Professor (The Mogambo Guru)


Posted: Nov 27 2010     By: Jim Sinclair      Post Edited: November 27, 2010 at 6:56 pm
Filed under: Jim's Mailbox
Gold Is the World’s Premier Currency, According To The Markets 

CIGA Eric
There is so much happening now that any thought other than self protections is madness. The dollar is no safe haven. Gold will trade at and above $1650.
Jim

Russia now suggests that they could one day join the Euro. This commentary came only days after they had announced that they have quit the dollar. "Yes, there are problems", as the headline below suggests that the size of the rescue package could be increased to restore confidence in the Euro. Apparently, the fact that nearly all western nations are defaulting on their debt through currency devaluation still makes fiat (Euro) an attractive alternative.

Headline: Putin: Russia will join the euro one day
Speaking at a conference in Germany the Russian prime minister, who is in the country for talks with Chancellor Angela Merkel, said he was convinced the euro would stabilise and strengthen despite the current sovereign debt crisis.
He said: "Yes, there are problems. But the economic policy of the European Central Bank and of the governments of leading European economies … convinces me that the stability of the euro will be ensured."

Headline: ECB’s Weber Says Europe’s Rescue Fund Could Be Increased If More Needed
European Central Bank council member Axel Weber said governments can increase the size of the European Union-led bailout fund if necessary to restore confidence in the euro.
“Seven hundred and fifty billion should be enough to assure the markets,” Weber said at the German embassy in Paris late yesterday. “If not, it will have to be increased.” In a worst-case scenario, the fund would need an additional 140 billion euros ($187 billion), an amount that would not jeopardize the survival of the euro, Weber said in Berlin today

Headline: European Banks ‘Nearly Bust’ If Euro Collapses, Evolution Says
The European banking system would be “nearly bust” if the euro were to be abandoned which means the 16-member currency “cannot and should not go,” Evolution Securities Ltd. said.
“If the euro is abandoned, and we go back to the peseta, lira, escudo, drachma etc., devaluations would follow immediately,” said Arturo de Frias, head of bank research at Evolution in a note to investors today, adding the industry is a “great buying opportunity.” Devaluations mean write-offs “of a size that would render the whole European banking system completely insolvent.”
The markets trends, rather than fancy rhetoric, clearly illustrate what Jim describes as a state of self preservation in the currency markets. Gold has once again stepped into the confidence vacuum as the world’s premier currency.
Key points of the following trends
(1) The fiat price of gold is rising in all global currencies
(2) The stronger fiat currencies are revealed by those yet to set new relative highs and lower angles of ascension.
(3) Gold has been the world’s premier currency since 2000-2001. This is a fact that won’t be universally recognized until nearly the end of gold’s price adjustment.

US Dollar Gold: clip_image001
Yen Gold: clip_image002
Mexican Peso Gold clip_image003
Euro Gold: clip_image004
Canadian Dollar Gold: clip_image005
British Pound: clip_image006
Australian Dollar Gold:
clip_image007
Swedish Krona Gold:
clip_image008
Swiss Franc Gold:
clip_image009
Rouble Gold:
clip_image010
Real Gold:
clip_image011
More…
Greece ? Ireland ? Portugal ? Spain ? Italy ? UK ? ?


A "Who Is Who" Of Countries About To Fund The IMF's Bail Out Of Europe

 

Unbelievable high open interest for December Silver/Massive problems for Europe/Spain/ More on Tropos and the Fed

 

Your One-Stop Guide To Frontrunning Monday's Double POMO

 

Instead of Actually Dealing With Rampant Mortgage Fraud, Fed Orders More Faux Stress Tests 



Risk sees a very black friday



International Forecaster November 2010 (#8) - Gold, Silver, Economy + More
By: Bob Chapman, The International Forecaster




Why the Government Hates Deflation
By: Richard Daughty, The Mogambo Guru




 The Not So Funny Funnies...




Quote of the day....

"You cannot find a bank safe deposit box in Germany because every single one has already been taken and stuffed with gold and silver. It is like an underground Switzerland within our borders. People have terrible memories of 1948 and 1923 when they lost their savings."- Professor Wilhelm Hankel, Frankfurt University, The Telegraph... November 25, 2010


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50,000 Turn Out To Protest Against Government Handling Of Irish Bailout

 

As South Korea Proceeds With Joint US Military Exercises, North Korea Vows Retaliation

 

Hugo Salinas Price: Silver money for Mexico

 

Weekly precious metals review at King World News

 

"Spain and Portugal under fire as bond spreads hit record". The link is here.



"Unions Shut Down Portugal Over Planned Cuts". The link is here.



"It's Official: There Is Not Enough Money To Bail Out Spain". It's a bit of read... but the graph at the end of the story is worth trip... and the link is here.



Solvency Crisis in the Banking System

Eric King over at King World News has a short blog posted that features John Williams of shadowstats.com fame. The headline is spot on... "Solvency Crisis in the Banking System". This is, as James Turk has pointed out many times in the past, is not a banking system liquidity problem... it's a banking system solvency problem. That's what John Williams talks about here. The blog is very much worth your time... and the link is here.

'Interview with Theodore Butler'." The link to this must read interview is here.
The Not So Funny Funnies...

 

Letter Re: Shelf Reliance Storage Foods at Costco

 

This recent news story sounds like something out of a survivalist novel: Residents not returning to town hit by Mexico drug war.



Ping Service

Friday, November 26, 2010

Silver Shortages Accelerate as Wholesale Supplies Plunge 
 

Precious Metals Are Going Nuts  

  
Jim Sinclair’s Commentary

There is so much happening now that any thought other than self protections is madness.
The dollar is no safe haven. Gold will trade at and above $1650.

Putin: Russia will join the euro one day
Vladimir Putin said it is "quite possible" that Russia will one day join the eurozone and create a currency that would eclipse the US dollar as the global reserve standard. 


By Louise Armitstead 5:30PM GMT 26 Nov 2010
Speaking at a conference in Germany the Russian prime minister, who is in the country for talks with Chancellor Angela Merkel, said he was convinced the euro would stabilise and strengthen despite the current sovereign debt crisis.
He said: "Yes, there are problems. But the economic policy of the European Central Bank and of the governments of leading European economies … convinces me that the stability of the euro will be ensured."
He added: "We know there are problems in Portugal, Greece, Ireland and the euro is wobbling a bit. On the whole it is a solid, good currency and it should take its place, its role as a reserve currency."
Asked about Russia’s role in the eurozone in the future, Mr Putin said: "Can it be supposed that one day Russia will be in some joint currency zone with Europe? Yes, quite possible."
Speaking at the same event, Josef Ackermann, chief executive of Deutsche Bank, echoed Mr Putin and said he could imagine Russia joining a common European currency.
More…


Surge Of Inexplicable After Hours Selling Takes Gold Volatility Index To All Time Low

 

Not All PIIGS Are Created Equal: Irish Bail Out Package To Come With 6.7% Interest Tag, 1.5% Higher Than Greece

 

What To Do When The FBI Raids Your Hedge Fund

 

Most Shorted NYSE Stocks Update

 

A Majority Of Americans Believe The US Government No Longer Operates Within The Constitution

 

Last Minute After Hours Dump Leaves Investors On Edge Ahead Of "Dual POMO Bail Out Monday"




October New Home Sales Drop 8.1%, Prices Fall  



Caterpillar Issues First Note in Chinese Currency  



List of Problem Banks Grows Despite Solid Net Income



China, Russia Quit Dollar



"Before anything else, preparation is the key to success." - Alexander Graham Bell
Posted: Nov 26 2010     By: Jim Sinclair      Post Edited: November 26, 2010 at 12:54 pm
Filed under: General Editorial

My Dear Friends,
What you are witnessing is adults acting like children.
A currency war solves absolutely nothing whatsoever.
A currency war puts extreme strains on exports.
A currency war never establishes a currency’s value versus its trading partners than can be maintained for any meaningful period of time.
A currency war creates currency levels that have nothing to do with reality economically and are unsustainable.
A currency war is endemic to QE in the entire Western world.
A currency war is destructive to all.
A currency war may cause gold to sell off like today in one currency, but it also causes gold to rise in others.
A currency war in time elects gold as the only viable currency.
A currency war is exactly what will give you levels of the gold price forecasted by Armstrong and Alf that are well above what we have looked at for over 8 years.
A currency war is what Merkel declared in her negative speech a few days ago concerning the euro.
A currency was is what the children running our monetary affairs have entered into.
A currency war is akin to children on the playground playing Keep Away.
A currency war’s game of Keep Away is to keep away prosperity.
1. Shut down your quote machine.
2. Take a brisk walk.
3. Drink some cold water or whatever.
4. Review my illustration below and Monty Guild’s recent comments.
Respectfully yours,
Jim
It is absurd to believe that the U.S. dollar will be a safe haven over the intermediate term
An even more absurd belief is the one that puts U.S. dollar and U.S. debt as a safe haven.  There is not any convincing economic evidence that the U.S. dollar is well managed, and there is no reason to believe that the dollar will rise in value.  In fact, it is the U.S. governments’ intention to devalue the dollar and to print money to avoid a deflation in the U.S.  Why do some global commentators see the dollar as a safe haven?  In our opinion, the only safe haven is precious metals, energy, food and other assets which will hedge against the inevitable inflation that the above policies create.
We wish everyone an enjoyable holiday.
Sincerely,
Guild Investment Management
www.GuildInvestment.com




Sean Corrigan Explains The Rules Of The "Multi-Trillion Shell Game" And What To Expect Next



Loss Given Default: From Madrid to Los Angeles Foreclosures Set to Crest in 2011-2012


  
Guest Post: With 'Synthetic Banking' Just Around the Corner Enjoy 'The Liechtensteiner' on 'Fed Monday'



Gloom, Anger Spread as European Economics Teeter 



Meredith Whitney sees 5,000 bank branches closing