Friday, November 16, 2012

Jim Sinclair: All hell is going to break loose...and its name is Currency Induced Cost Push Inflation...

Don’t Let Machines Control Your Emotions
by Jim Sinclair, JS Mineset:
Gold will trade at $3500 and beyond. The US dollar will test USDX .7200 before heading lower.
Whatever is required, be it time or money, the Euro nations will get. The Fed will, via swaps, backstop the euro. QE will go to infinity both here and there.
The Chinese have publicly said when the gold market takes a hit they will be buying.
Calm down. Emotions are being run by machines, HFT and nerds who hide behind their computer. They will not win.
All hell is going to break lose, and its name is Currency Induced Cost Push Inflation...
fiscal cliff, Bush tax cuts
Read More @ JS Mineset


150 Seconds Of "You Can't Handle The European Truth" From Kyle Bass


"A popular revolt will happen" is how Kyle Bass sums up the endgame from kicking the can in Europe. Dismissing the headline-making 'But, Blackrock is buying European bonds', Bass reminds Bloomberg's Stephanie Ruhle that very few ever get the crises correct and that the herd will keep buying things until it blows apart. With massively over-leveraged banks and a Greek dependency, Bass notes that investing in Europe now is like picking up a dime in front of a bulldozer and expects Germany will eventualy leave the Euro (within 3-4 years) as the 'joint-and-several' liabilities will never happen. 150 well-spent seconds to summarise just what is going in Europe, as he concludes with Milton Friedman's quote on Europe: "when they hit a bump in the road, it will tear them apart at the core."

2 Dead, 2 Missing As Another Oil Platform Burning In Gulf Of Mexico

Mere hours after BP settles, the US Coast Guard confirms there is an offshore (shallow water) platform burning in the Gulf of Mexico in the area of West Delta Block 32 (near West Cote Blanche Bay). Local TV says that two people are dead and two people are missing after an explosion at the platform. More to come...
  • UPDATE:Gulf rig fire was result of rig explosion at oil/gas platform "West Delta 32"owned by Black Elk Oil, ac. to Coast Guard

Your support is needed...
Thank You

I'm PayPal Verified 

Anonymous Hacks Greek Finance Ministry, Finds "123456" Is Password For 37% Of All User Accounts

While we have yet to go through the thousands of files that hacker collective Anonymous has just released as a result of its hack of the Greek Finance Ministry, an exploit it described as follows: "We gained full access to the Greek Ministry of Finance. Those funky IBM servers don't look so safe now, do they... We have new guns in our arsenal. A sweet 0day SAP exploit is in our hands and oh boy we're gonna sploit the hell out of it. Respectz to izl the dog for that perl candy," what we find even more amusing, if not surprising, is that of the 136 username accounts Anonymous hacked, the password of precisely 50 of them, or some 37% of all workers, is .... 123456 (full list here).



BTFD...(buy the F--king dips)...Keep Stacking...

Gold & Silver Plunge Deja Deja Deja Vu

Whether it is leveraged AAPL traders forced to sell winning collateral to meet margin calls, correlation-driven algos running stops down and up, or simply the whims of worried custodians managing risk for their clients' holdings; one thing is sure - someone (or more than one) has been a size seller of precious metals in the US-day-session-open to Europe-close period for four days in a row now...


Every Time You See This...BTFD...

And Again, Same Time as Thursday.

by SGT,
Let’s take moment to admire the free and fair trade of the precious metals, unencumbered by paper manipulation! This is what a free market is all about. I’m so glad we live in a country that respects the rule of law. America is home to the shining jewel of financial markets which are the envy of the world. Stand proud Americans! It’s an honor to know that we are home to Wall Street and some of the largest banking houses on planet earth. And we are so fortunate to have the SEC and the CFTC to help safeguard these wonderful markets, always standing vigilant and ensuring that if ever there is any malfeasance in the market, it will swiftly be sought out and corrected, and those responsible, brought to justice. May God continue to bless the greatest country in the world. These United States of America.


Meanwhile In Argentina...


Dear Buenos Aires: we have three words of advice - "hide yo' catamarans" (before Paul Singer comes and collects them all once you default again in what the market now deems is inevitable to occur in the next few weeks). 5Y CDS on Argentina just reverse-Baumgartnered to over 3000bps (49/53% upfront) and short-dated CDS imply a 60% probability of default (assuming a 25% recovery).

Here Is Why The ECB Should Be Freaking Out

Given the deterioration left, right, and center in Europe's core and peripheral economies, some question the sustained 'strength' of EURUSD. An under-the-table peg around 1.27 is the conspiracy chatter but we fall back to a tried-and-true recipe for comprehending what the market is thinking - the central banks are in charge and the EURUSD exchange rate merely reflects (as a main trend) the relationship between those two balance sheets (as monetary policy escalates downwards and they battle each other to 'defend' their own currencies' demise). To wit, given the current ratio of the Fed and ECB balance sheets, we would expect EURUSD to be trading around 1.21. The current EURUSD rate implies a balance-sheet ratio of 1.08x - which therefore means the market expects the ECB to expand its balance sheet by EUR740bn; this just happens to be the sum-total of Spanish sovereign debt (according to Bloomberg - while our estimate is considerably higher). So it seems, the market knows that once the ECB starts, it will not be able to stop and will end up taking the entire Spanish debt load onto its books. Spain can perhaps deal with its existing debt in this way - but this appears to us merely incremental sustainability - and like in the US where the Fed is monetizing all long-dated Gross issuance, so the ECB will have no choice but to do the same with Spain in 2013 and 2014 - Treaty or no Treaty!!.


Quote of the Day

Trader Dan at Trader Dan's Market Views - 10 minutes ago
 
"Society in every state is a blessing, but government, even in its best state, is but a necessary evil; in its worst state an intolerable one." --Thomas Paine 
 

Rancher/Farmers - Further Casualities in the War Being Waged by the Left

Trader Dan at Trader Dan's Market Views - 11 minutes ago
Take a good, hard look at the following article and note particularly way down in the 10th paragraph: Many Democrats argue the tax promotes equality among classes, Read more: http://www.foxnews.com/politics/2012/11/16/ranchers-farmers-brace-for-death-tax-impact/#ixzz2CP5PO11S If you will recall that article I wrote last week after the election, I mentioned that the left in this country takes as its motto the rallying cry of the French Revolution, "Liberty, EQUALITY, Fraternity". They will not rest until they have reduced every citizen in this nation to the same level of misery and ... more » 
 

Dealing With Complexity In A Non-linear World

Eric De Groot at Eric De Groot - 1 hour ago
I realize that understanding can by crushed by weight of complexity, but I know few processes adequately defined by linear reasoning (insert tab A into slot A). Investors and traders even those that follow Jim's approach as a creator of production and true wealth are challenged daily by the complexities of a non-linear world. Insights.com was created to show the door of possibilities in... [[ This is a content summary only. Visit my website for full links, other content, and more! ]] 
 

Don`t Fight Change

Admin at Jim Rogers Blog - 1 hour ago
"People who fight change are fighting inevitability itself." - *in The Ultimate Road Trip* *Jim Rogers is an author, financial commentator and successful international investor. He has been frequently featured in Time, The New York Times, Barron’s, Forbes, Fortune, The Wall Street Journal, The Financial Times and is a regular guest on Bloomberg and CNBC.* 
 

Bullish On Southeast Asia

Admin at Marc Faber Blog - 2 hours ago
In this "Squawk Box" excerpt, Marc Faber of the Gloom, Boom & Doom Report, says there is one area of the world that he is optimistic about. * **Marc Faber is an international investor known for his uncanny predictions of the stock market and futures markets around the world.* 
 

Retirement 'Perfect Storm' Coming in 2013

Eric De Groot at Eric De Groot - 3 hours ago
Anyone building a short list of the most over-hyped economic buzz words of 2012, might want to consider adding: Fiscal Cliff Balanced Approach Perfect Storm George Clooney's agent has to smelling a sequel with so many perfect storms on the horizon. Headline: Retirement 'Perfect Storm' Coming in 2013 An estimated 7 million Americans will reach the age of 65 by the start of... [[ This is a content summary only. Visit my website for full links, other content, and more! ]]


The Hostess Liquidation: A Curious Cast Of Characters As The Twinkie Tumbles

Perhaps one of the most interesting aspects of the just announced Hostess liquidation, one that will be largely debated and discussed in the media, or maybe not at all, is the curious cast of characters and the peculiar history of this particular bankruptcy. Some may not be aware that the company's Chapter 11 (or colloquially known as 22) bankruptcy filing this January, which today became a Chapter 7 liquidation, was the second one in the company's recent history, with Hostess, previously Interstate Bakeries, emerging from its previous protracted multi-year bankruptcy in 2009. What is curious is that its emergence had all the drama of a anti-Mitt Romney PAC funded thriller, with a PE firm, in this case Ripplewood holdings, injecting $130 million in order to obtain equity control of Hostess as it was emerging last time. There were also more hedge funds, investment banks, strategic buyers, politicians involved in this particular story than one can shake a deep fried numismatic value Twinkie at. More importantly, however, as America has been habituated following the last season of the reality TV show known as the presidential election, if Private Equity then "bad." Only this time there is a twist: because it wasn't really PE that was the pure evil in the Obama long-term campaign, it was associating PE with Republicans, and thus: with jobs outsourcing. And here comes the Hostess twist: because Tim Collins of Ripplewood, was a prominent Democrat, a position which allowed him to get involved in the first bankruptcy process in the first place, due to his proximity with the Teamsters' long-term heartthrob Dick Gephardt (whose consulting group just happens to also be an equity owner of Hostess). In other words, the traditional republican-cum-PE scapegoating strategy here will be a tough one to pull off since the narrative collapses when considering that it was a Democrat who rescued the firm, only to see it implode in a trainwreck that has resulted in the liquidation of a legendary brand, and 18,500 layoffs.


Hamas Escalates - Air Raid Sirens Over Jerusalem

Markets have come to their senses a little and are selling off as news breaks of a plethora of concerning headlines from Israel:
  • *AIR RAID SIRENS HEARD OVER JERUSALEM
  • *HAMAS CLAIMS FIRED ROCKET TOWARD JERUSALEM AREA, CHANNEL 2 SAYS
  • *HAMAS CLAIMS IT HIT ISRAELI JET OVER GAZA STRIP
  • *HAMAS SAYS FIRED AT ISRAELI PARLIAMENT IN JERUSALEM
  • *FLASH: EXPLOSION HEARD IN JERUSALEM AREA: LOCAL MEDIA
Not good at all...


There Is No Dollar Sign On Your Piece Of Mind

In a word, this weekend, next week, we are facing what the boys in the South call “chicken fried.” This is the moment when the ingredients lounging in your kitchen get tossed in the frying pan and are cooked up with grease (perhaps Greece) splattering everywhere and some concoction that is decidedly unhealthy for you is tossed upon your plate. A week ago the menu consisted of the Capitol Grill of America’s Fiscal Cliff, the red wine (perhaps whine) of Spain and the seemingly never ending fried in olive oil mess provided by both Athens and Brussels. That would have been enough “Opa” for anyone as plates get smashed and people whirl around on some table like dervishes but now we have a new option on the menu, a special provided by the Great Chef in the sky. We get to throw in the latkes of Israel and the hummus provided by Hamas. Any of these menu selections could provide severe heartburn all by themselves but eaten together; a hospital stay may be required or a plot at the cemetery.



Tumbling October Industrial Production And Capacity Utilization Blamed Solely On Hurricane Sandy

Because not one Wall Street analyst could have possibly factored in the impact of Sandy into their expectations of the month's Industrial Production, which in October declined by -0.4% to 96.6 from 97.0 in the Fed's index, well below consensus expectations of a 0.2% rise, and down from last month's 0.4% increase, it is only logical to blame it all on Sandy. Sure enough, this is what the Fed just did: "Hurricane Sandy, which held down production in the Northeast region at the end of October, is estimated to have reduced the rate of change in total output by nearly 1 percentage point." So let's get this straight: Sandy - which hit on October 29, or with about 94% of the month of October done and impacted New York and New Jersey, not the entire US, is responsible for 250% of the entire October 0.4% drop?  Can we please get back to the "It's all Bush's fault" excuses already. At least those were idiotic and funny. Blaming everything on Sandy is just the former. And yes, capacity utilization for the entire USA which came at 77.8%, the lowest since November 2011, and well below expectations of 78.3%, was obviously crushed by a tropical storm that impacted New York and New Jersey for 3 days in the month. Brilliant.



Pre-Open Equity Ramp As Algos Track War-Ridden Oil Higher

Each day we wake and look to the markets for guidance. Typically that guidance means - which easily-leveragable asset class can be pulled (or pushed) to move the US equity markets (in their algo-correlated manner) in which ever direction we need (up as much as possible obviously since the status quo requires it). Sometimes, it's EURUSD, other times it's PMs; today, it is oil's turn! There has been no real escalation in tensions in Israel in the last hour, no news of significance; and yet WTI has popped 1.5% and in an almost perfectly correlated manner, S&P futures have chugged along to the highs of the day to run those stops before the US day-session open. Efficient Markets... Pin Risk... OPEX...



Risk Ramp On Boehner Banality

Great timing. The ubiquitous post-European close trend-reversal was extended by some 'nothing' comments from Boehner that every media outlet is inferring means everything's fixed and compromise is close.  Boehner says talks with Obama were constructive. Outlined a framework with Obama; Will accept revenue if spending cuts.  It's not - what did we expect him to say?AAPL jumped up to VWAP and S&P 500 futures coincidentally reached overnight highs/stops. Now let's see if anyone really believes...

Your support is needed...
Thank You

I'm PayPal Verified 


Twinkies, Ding Dongs Maker Hostess Liquidates Following Failure To Resolve Labor Union Animosity


Hostess Brands, the company better known as the maker of Butternut, Ding Dongs, Dolly Madison, Drake's, Home Pride, Ho Hos, Hostess, Merita, Nature's Pride, and of course Wonder Bread and Twinkies, and which previously survived one multi-year Chapter 11 bankruptcy process, when it operated as Interstate Bakeries, has just made a splash at the NY Southern Bankruptcy court, for the last time, with a liquidation filing. The reason: insurmountable (and unfundable) difference in the firm's collective bargaining agreements and pension obligations, which resulted in a crippling strike that basically shut down the company. In other words, Twinkies may well survive the nuclear apocalypse, but there was one weakest link: the company making them, was unable to survive empowered labor unions who thought they had all the negotiating leverage...  until they led their bankrupt employer right off liquidation cliff. Will attention now turn to that another broke government entity, the Pension Benefit Guarantee Corp (PBGC), which will have to step in to resuscitate some 18,000 pension plans which suddenly vaporized after labor unions took their "negotiating" freedom a step too far. Finally, those 18,500 new initial jobless claims next week? Sandy's fault.

How Fiscally FUBAR Will Your State Be?

We all stand 'fingers-over-eyes and thumbs-in-ears' awestruck at the immense wreckage that the fiscal cliff titan will wreak upon the country. However, deep inside our socially responsible minds, all we can really think about is - what about my needs? The Pew Center On The States has just released a very broad and detailed look at just how the increased taxation and reduced spending will impact each and every state. Here, in two simple charts, is the answer.

The 'Broken' Fed Model In 3 Simple Charts


One of the most commonly cited 'bullish' memes for stocks is the so-called Fed Model (or Equity Risk Premium) or more simply - the fact that earnings yields are not catching up to Treasury yields (i.e. why put your money in government bonds at such low rates when there is a smorgasbord of yummy equities with 'attractive' dividend yields). There are three key problems with this perspective: 1) No concept of 'risk' is imbibed in this return-based differential (as we have discussed before here and here); 2) Longer-term historical context is critical (as we discussed here - must read); and most importantly 3) Financial Repression breaks the 'Fed Model'. As Barclays shows in the following three charts (and we pointed out recently) normalization of the equity risk premium will not occur until Financial Repression ends. Brings a whole new meaning to 'Don't Fight The Fed' eh

Tumbling October Industrial Production And Capacity Utilization Blamed Solely On Hurricane Sandy


Because not one Wall Street analyst could have possible factored in the impact of Sandy into their expectations of the month's Industrial Production, which in October declined by -0.4% to 96.6 from 97.0 in the Fed's index, well below consensus expectations of a 0.2% rise, and down from last month's 0.4% increase, it is only logical to blame it all on Sandy. Sure enough, this is what the Fed just did: "Hurricane Sandy, which held down production in the Northeast region at the end of October, is estimated to have reduced the rate of change in total output by nearly 1 percentage point." So let's get this straight: Sandy - which hit on October 29, or with about 94% of the month of October done and impacted New York and New Jersey, not the entire US, is responsible for 250% of the entire October 0.4% drop?  Can we please get back to the "It's all Bush's fault" excuses already. At least those were idiotic and funny. Blaming everything on Sandy is just the former. And yes, capacity utilization for the entire USA which came at 77.8%, the lowest since November 2011, and well below expectations of 78.3%, was obviously crushed by a tropical storm that impacted New York and New Jersey for 3 days in the month. Brilliant.

Pre-Open Equity Ramp As Algos Track War-Ridden Oil Higher

Each day we wake and look to the markets for guidance. Typically that guidance means - which easily-leveragable asset class can be pulled (or pushed) to move the US equity markets (in their algo-correlated manner) in which ever direction we need (up as much as possible obviously since the status quo requires it). Sometimes, it's EURUSD, other times it's PMs; today, it is oil's turn! There has been no real escalation in tensions in Israel in the last hour, no news of significance; and yet WTI has popped 1.5% and in an almost perfectly correlated manner, S&P futures have chugged along to the highs of the day to run those stops before the US day-session open. Efficient Markets... Pin Risk... OPEX...

Silver To Climb 38% In 2013 - "Possibly Over $50/oz" Say GFMS

Thomson Reuters GFMS has published research that says they project silver prices to rise 38% in 2013 from current levels, as a sluggish global economy increases safe haven demand. The bullish silver GFMS forecast was published on the Silver Institute website yesterday and is unusual as the GFMS have been quiet bearish on silver in recent years despite rising prices. Philip Klapwijk of GFMS said that “a rebound in investment demand stemming from continuing loose monetary policies is expected to drive silver prices towards and possibly over $50 during 2013.”  Spot silver has risen over 17% this year overtaking gold’s 10% gain, and paving the way for its third consecutive rise in four years. "Strong investment demand, higher gold prices on the back of monetary easing, rising inflation expectations and the persistence of ultra-low interest rates," are among the factors that will lure buyers to the safety of silver,” said Philip Klapwijk of GFMS. "We are thinking prices will trend higher next year. I'm not convinced that we are going to $50. I think we will definitely see $40 to $45 prices."

The Witching Hour


The October Double Witch lit the match that precipitated the bulk of the 8.6% slide in the S&P 500 from its September highs.  Massive and unexplainable changes in open interest for the futures most of that week as well as an unusually large Market On Open imbalance for index expiration that morning hinted that the final days of the rally were artificial and susceptible for a sharp reversal. We have arrived at the third Friday in November licking our wounds after a precipitous drop in equities since the Election. Reminded of last month’s inflection point, traders, however, who have far better memories than given credit for, may expect something out of the ordinary especially with the curious drop in the VIX over the past several days albeit I chalk up this suppression of implied volatility to the selling of $6B in notional SPY puts centered on the 140-41 strikes.  On the other hand, one could easily argue that the critical 1350 level for S&P 500 options held up the market yesterday such that the removal of such a protective barrier could reengage the aggressive selling from the past two weeks.

Your support is needed...
Thank You

I'm PayPal Verified     

Fiscal Cliff Can About To Be Kicked Into 2013?

With precisely 13 working sessions left for Congress in 2012, it is time to ratchet up the can kicking rhetoric a bit. Sure enough, here comes the White House, via the Wall Street Journal, doing just that.
  • WHITE HOUSE IN ADVANCED INTERNAL DISCUSSIONS ON PLAN TO REPLACE SEQUESTER - SOURCES - DJ
  • CONCEPT WOULD KICK MAJOR DEFICIT-REDUCTION TALKS INTO 2013 - DJ
  • CONCEPT WOULD BE PART OF BROADER NEGOTIATIONS ON TACKLING 'FISCAL CLIFF' - DJ
Because when unable to reach a compromise over anything, what is the best option? Just stick head in sand, and demand that the Mr. Chairman gets to work. As for the news above, this is largely irrelevant for the actual fiscal cliff negotiations and the futures buying algos are once again in for a rude awakening.

Name The Author: "How The Capitalists Are Trying To Scare The People"

Name the author: "No socialist has ever proposed that the “tens of millions”, i.e., the small and middle peasants, should be deprived of their property (“made to abdicate their property rights”). Nothing of the kind! Socialists everywhere have always denied such nonsense. Socialists are out to make only the landowners and capitalists “abdicate”. To deal a decisive blow at those who are defying the people the way the colliery owners are doing when they disrupt and ruin production, it is sufficient to make a few hundred, at the most one or two thousand, millionaires, bank and industrial and commercial bosses, “abdicate” their property rights. This would be quite enough to break the resistance of capital."

Bullish On Southeast Asia

Admin at Marc Faber Blog - 26 minutes ago
In this "Squawk Box" excerpt, Marc Faber of the Gloom, Boom & Doom Report, says there is one area of the world that he is optimistic about. * **Marc Faber is an international investor known for his uncanny predictions of the stock market and futures markets around the world.* 
 

Retirement 'Perfect Storm' Coming in 2013

Eric De Groot at Eric De Groot - 2 hours ago
Anyone building a short list of the most over-hyped economic buzz words of 2012, might want to consider adding: Fiscal Cliff Balanced Approach Perfect Storm George Clooney's agent has to smelling a sequel with so many perfect storms on the horizon. Headline: Retirement 'Perfect Storm' Coming in 2013 An estimated 7 million Americans will reach the age of 65 by the start of... [[ This is a content summary only. Visit my website for full links, other content, and more! ]]
 

Big Jump in Federal Reserve MBS Debt Purchases

Trader Dan at Trader Dan's Market Views - 11 hours ago
After questioning last week where the Fed's QE3 had gone, it seems as if we got an answer this week. This afternoon's report on the Fed Balance Sheet shows a sharp increase in Mortgage-Backed Securities holdings on their Balance Sheet, $37 Billion to be exact. Keep in mind that the Fed had announced monthly purchases of $40 billion in MBS debt each and every month so it looks like they just made a big chunk of that for November. Based on what I am seeing in the US equity markets, that $40 billion is not going to do much good as the stock market continues reeling from the election r... more » 

Directionless Drift Marks Eventless Session

There was precious little in terms of actionable news in the overnight session, which means that, like a broken record, Europe falls back to contemplating its two main question marks: Greece and Spain, with the former once again making noises about the "inevitability" of receiving the Troika's long delayed €31.5 billion rescue tranche. The chief noise emitter was Italian Finance Minister Vittorio Grilli who said he was "confident that euro-region finance chiefs will reach an agreement on aiding Greece when they meet next week." He was joined by Luxembourg Finance Minister Frieden who also "saw" a Greek solution on November 20. Naturally, what the two thing is irrelevant: when it comes to funding cash flows, only Germany matters, everything else is noise, and so far Schauble has made it clear Germany has to vote on the final Troika report so Europe continues to be in stasis when it comes to its main talking point. In fundamental European news, there was once again nothing positive to report as Euro-area exports fell in September as the region’s economy slipped into a recession for the second time in four years. Exports declined a 1.1% from August, when they gained 3.3%. Imports dropped 2.7%. The trade surplus widened to 11.3 billion euros from a revised 8.9 billion euros in the previous month. Global trade, at whose nexus Europe has always been at the apex, continues to shrink rapidly. Elsewhere, geopolitical developments between Israel and Gaza have been muted with little to report, although this will hardly remain as is. Providing some news amusement is Japan, where the LDP opposition leader Shinzo Abe continues to threaten that he will make the BOJ a formal branch of the government and will impose 2% inflation targeting, which in turn explain the ongoing move in the USDJPY higher. This too will fade when laughter takes the place of stunned silence.


Meet The New China - Same As The Old China?


Just before the US election, we laid out the details and implications of the 'other' major 'election' occurring in the world - that of China's Supreme Leader of Awesomeness. Last night the details were announced of the makeup of the new Politburo Standing Committee. As Bloomberg notes, the panel - the most powerful decision-making body in China - was reduced from nine to seven members and will be led (unsurprisingly) by Xi Jinping. Perhaps, in a lesson for our own politicians, the 'new' committee is 'bipartisan' with five members from Xi Jinping's own Jiang Zemin faction and two members from Hu Jintao's faction (more a balance of reformers and reactionaries). But, in a similar vein to the US, as The Diplomat's David Cohen notes,"If Xi is to achieve even the economic policy goals that already appear to enjoy consensus support in Beijing, he will need to find ways of overcoming some of the largest entrenched interest groups in contemporary China.  To do so, he may have to set about creating new entrenched interest groups."



Frontrunning: November 16

  • Israel Mobilizes Troops as Hostilities Escalate (WSJ)
  • FHA Sets Stage for Taxpayer Subsidy With 2012 Deficit (Bloomberg)
  • On eve of fiscal cliff talks, positions harden (Reuters)
  • Japan PM Noda contradicts challenger Abe on BOJ (Reuters)
  • Regulators cut JPMorgan's ability to trade power (Reuters)
  • EU Should Reach Agreement on Greek Aid Next Week, Grilli Says (BBG)
  • Moscovici rejects talk of French crisis (FT)
  • Egypt Urges Push for Gaza Peace as Rockets Hit Israel (BBG)
  • Leading Japan politicians draw election battle lines (Reuters)
  • Fed Push to Tie Zero-Rate to Economic Goals Faces Doubts (BBG)
  • China’s commerce minister voted out in rare congress snub (Reuters)
  • China’s new leaders could have reform thrust upon them (Reuters)
  • Both Sides of Gaza Border Brace for Further Conflict (WSJ)
  • Fed Sees Hurdles in Housing Rebound (Hilsenrath)
  • The Complete 2012 Business Schools Ranking (Bloomberg)
 
Today’s Items:

First…
Euro Zone Slips Into Second Recession Since 2009
http://www.cnbc.com
Mired in violent protests and massive strikes, the EU is now again in recession.    As if you could not tell by the austerity, protests and bank runs.    At any rate, the 17-country euro zone fell 0.1% in the third quarter.    Since this was the second quarter of declines, the 9.4 trillion euro economy is officially in recession.

Next…
Global Gold Production To Plummet
http://kingworldnews.com
Rick Rule states that while industry spends more money each year looking for gold deposits, they are coming up fewer, of lower grade, and quality.    Many of the today’s gold production is from mines discovered and put into production 20-to-25-years ago.    This translates to a diminished gold production over time.

Next…
Could You Live On Social Security?
http://www.zerohedge.com
Here are some facts about Social Security – While it lasts…
1. The average monthly social security benefit is about $1130.
2. Almost 1 in 5 recipients live on Social Security income alone.
3. For nearly one-third of elderly recipients, social security makes up 90% of their income.

Next…
GMO Labeling
http://www.activistpost.com
Proposition 37, which would have forced food manufacturers to identify if their foods were made with GMO’s, was defeated in California.    Now, 30 other states, like Arizona, Connecticut, Florida, and Vermont are pursuing GMO labeling.    If just one of these thirty states mandates labeling of GMO food, this will transfer across all 50 states.    An example of this policy is the fact that your bottled water has an expiration date because of a California law.

Next…
FEMA Camps
http://www.naturalnews.com
Weeks after Superstorm Sandy, tent cities, set up by FEMA that resemble prison camps, house thousands of New Yorkers and New Jersey residents still reeling from the loss of their homes and property.    These people are treated to Blackhawk helicopters flying over and movement of heavy equipment all day and night.   Yes, these people may be the first in America to see their future.    No doubt that more manufactured goods in the future will say “Made in USA” thanks to coming FEMA Prison System.

Next…
BP Expected to Admit to Criminal Misconduct in 2010 Spill
http://www.cnbc.com
BP is expected to plead guilty to criminal misconduct in the 2010 Deepwater Horizon disaster through a plea agreement with the U.S. Department of Injustice.   The Deepwater Horizon disaster killed 11 workers and fouled the shorelines of four Gulf Coast states in the worst offshore spill in U.S. history.    Expect the penalty to virtually be nothing more than a slap on the hand.

22 Signs of Voter Fraud
http://endoftheamericandream.com
Here are a few…
1. 10 counties in Colorado had greater than 100% vote.
2. Obama did not win a single state that required an ID to vote.
3. In Ohio, two election judges were caught allowing unregistered voters to cast ballots.
In short, the election was a sham.

Next…
Obama’s Fiscal Plan
http://www.wealthwire.com
Obama will begin budget negotiations by insisting on $1.6 trillion in new taxes.  Understand this, the GDP of the US is a little over $15 trillion.   Obama and Democratic leaders  have not clarified how they would potentially raise the $1.6 trillion in revenue.    Can you say Carbon Tax?

Finally, please prepare now for the escalating economic and social unrest.    Good Day!

Your support is needed...
Thank You

I'm PayPal Verified        

Thursday, November 15, 2012

2.4 Million Ounces of Silver Withdrawn From Brink’s & HSBC Vaults Wednesday!!

by SRSrocco, Silver Doctors:
The physical silver scramble continues, as a MASSIVE 2.4 million ounces of silver were withdrawn from Brink’s & HSBC vaults Wednesday!
Got PHYZZ??
Read More @ Silver Doctors

Massive raid on gold today/Silver holds up on this raid/Missile launched against TelAviv in Israel/Poor Philly manufacturing numbers + poor Empire manufacturing index/high jobless numbers

Good evening Ladies and Gentlemen:
Gold closed down $16.10 to finish the comex session at $1713.30. Silver which was certainly the object of interest to our bankers today, was whacked early but recovered to show a loss of only 20 cents finishing at $32.67 As I promised you yesterday a raid was imminent, and we certainly had a dandy attack today. The gold/silver mining equity shares had a terrible day yesterday and another one today. One of the big signs of an attack will happen is when the precious metal is up on the day coupled with a big drop in the mining shares. This is a signal to the bankers that a raid is forthcoming the next day. The bankers today threw a monstrous 19,182 gold contracts in a 5 minute span or 3800 contracts per minute. These were all non backed with any gold behind them. In raids such as this, in normal times, silver would have dropped by $1.50 or so on this collusive behaviour. Today however, silver held firm and refused to follow the wishes of JPMorgan and friends. A fall of only 20 cents is surely a victory for our side.
There is no question that the bankers are intent on getting gold below the $1700 mark and silver below the 32.50 level as many calls have been written on gold and silver. The bankers do not want many of these contracts to land in the money and thus the massive onslaught we witnessed today. As long as we have no referee, the bankers will be free to do anything they like. Their only problem is real physical which according to GATA has seen supplies drop dramatically in London.
Read More @ HarveyOrgan.Blogspot.ca

Guess What They Are Not Cutting In The Fiscal Cliff...

In his farewell address to Congress yesterday, Ron Paul blasted the dangers of what he called 'Economic Ignorance'. He's dead right. Around the world, economic ignorance abounds. And perhaps nowhere is this more obvious today than in the senseless prattling over the US 'Fiscal Cliff'. US government spending falls into three categories: Discretionary, Mandatory, and Interest on Debt. The only thing Congress has a say over is Discretionary Spending. But here's the problem - the US fiscal situation is so untenable that the government fails to collect enough tax revenue to cover mandatory spending and debt interest alone. This means that they could cut the ENTIRE discretionary budget and still be in the hole by $251 billion. This is why the Fiscal Cliff is irrelevant. Increasing taxes won't increase their total tax revenue. Politicians have tried this for decades. It doesn't work. Bottom line-- the Fiscal Cliff doesn't matter. The US passed the point of no return a long time ago.

Visualizing The World's Rich

  We hear a lot about billionaires, millionaires, and 250,000-aires but just where are all these tax-dodging blood-suckers skulking and just how many trips to Space on Virgin Galactic can the Top 25 Wealthiest people take per day?... Everything you wanted to know about the uber-wealthy is one simple mega-infographic.








DTCC Provides Update On Status Of Flooded Securities Vault

As has been widely reported previously, while the NY Fed's deep underground gold vault remained dry during the Sandy flooding in downtown NY, one institution which got badly hurt was the DTCC, aka Cede & Co (profiled here in July of 2009 in " The Biggest Financial Company You Have Never Heard Of"), which is the entity serving as custodian of virtually every electronically traded security in the modern marketplace (equity, debt, derivative, synthetic, in fact anything which is not a physical asset in itself and is not in the hands, or safe, of the rightful owner). We put the emphasis on electronically, because DTCC is also the actual custodian of all physical proof of stock ownership, such as certificates, bond deeds, and the like. It is the largely irrelevant latter (because it has been several decades since anyone actually demanded a physical copy of the stock certificates backing their shares of company XYZ) that the DTCC got in trouble for when its securities vault got flooded, and in the process destroyed countless physical stock certificates. Note we did not use the word electronic because those are there and accounted for in numerous back up data sites, with full designation and attribution. In other words anyone who made a mountain out of this particular mole hill sadly has no idea how modern markets operate, since all that the DTCC needs to do to remedy the flooding damage is to notify transfer agents of this natural disaster, and then have duplicate stock certificates printed at a cost of 1 cent for every thousands or so print outs. Which is more or less what the DTCC also just said in its press release.

Gold Lower but Holding Above Support

Trader Dan at Trader Dan's Market Views - 7 minutes ago
Considering what looks more like a non-stop avalanche of selling in the mining sector, the yellow metal is holding relatively well. It has bounced off the first level of support shown on the price chart that comes in very near to the $1700 level. Failure to remain above this level will allow the market to move lower towards the $1680 region where it can be expected to find some buying support. To get the least bit of excitement going, gold will have to clear $1740 and remain above that level before it rattles anyone other than the most short-term bears. Today, a story out of the ... more » 
 

Ron Paul Comments on the Secession Movement

Trader Dan at Trader Dan's Market Views - 18 minutes ago
God bless this man! Ron Paul: The Founders Believed in Secession “Secession is what we did when we left England, it was a wonderful thing” *Paul Joseph Watson* Infowars.com November 15, 2012 Congressman Ron Paul reacted to the secessionist movement sweeping America today by reminding people that the United States seceded from the British empire, while slamming those who suggested their fellow Americans should be deported merely for talking about the idea. http://www.infowars.com/ron-paul-the-founders-believed-in-secession/ 
 

Gold Follows The ABCD Cycle

Eric De Groot at Eric De Groot - 2 hours ago
Gold follows an A(minor up), B(minor down/consolidation), C(Major UP), and D(Major DOWN) cycle. The last major buy signal for gold came July 27th 2012 after the D-wave "hook". This buy signal is marked in the chart below. We're in the middle of an AB transition, but today's aggressive selling in the gold shares sector suggests that a large number of retail traders and community members... [[ This is a content summary only. Visit my website for full links, other content, and more! ]] 
 

Systemic Collapse: The Corzine Factor

Dave in Denver at The Golden Truth - 4 hours ago
*In the end, more than freedom, they wanted security. They wanted a comfortable life, and they lost it all – security, comfort, and freedom. When the Athenians finally wanted not to give to society but for society to give to them, when the freedom they wished for most was freedom from responsibility, then Athens ceased to be free and was never free again.* *- *Edward Gibbon, English historian and acclaimed author of "The Decline and Fall of the Roman Empire." I hope everyone has a chance to meditate on the quote above, as it applies to the state of our society here and now. Hist... more » 

Why Politicians Hate Austerity - In One Simple Chart

 
Just as our political class in the US is spending its time focused on the tax-'em-til-they-bleed side of the equation as opposed to the cut-em-to-the-bone austerity side of the income statement; so the evidence is clear (thanks to the following chart) - austerity doesn't get you re-elected. When all that matters is your next government paycheck for your 'elected' position, far from being for the people, austerity is avoided as vehemently as possible. Not only does social unrest increase (as the 'people' have become used to unsustainable standards of living) but incumbent popularty sinks - rapidly.


Low Range, Medium Volume, High Anxiety

Equity indices end the day marginally red as the machines tried every trick in the book to get markets up...(levering FX carry, spiking PMs, running HYG, spiking vol) to enable more selling - especially at the close when we saw notable size blocks being traded into that ramp to try and get green. VWAP was the anchor all day for S&P 500 futures (and since the synthetics are where the liquidity is - everything else followed) as stocks trend-reversed as normal on the EU close. In general volatility and high-yield credit had a significantly weak day but into the close managed to rise a little as risk-assets broadly recoupled with equity markets to close. Despite a lot of noise and chop stocks lost a little, Treasuries gained a little (-2bps on the week!), Silver scrambled back from its flash crash (but gold didn't do as well), and the USD ended today up a remarkably unchanged 0.04% (with EUR up 0.5% and JPY down 2.2% on the week). VIX ended back above 18% as AAPL just keeps falling with its 300DMA now in play.


Hamas Releases Video Of Downed Israeli Drone, IDF Denies


Someone is lying here: either Hamas did not down an IDF drone, dubbed "Sky Light", and the clip below is one big fraud (unclear why Hamas would go to such a length to fabricate a downed drone video), or the IDF is lying when it said it "confirmed" that one of its drones had been shot down. Either way, we have a feeling that the airborne campaign is coming to an end, and that Israel may and likely will escalate to a full blown land invasion very soon unless something dramatically changes. We fail to see what catalyzes this.


Goldman's Swirlogram Confirms Economic Slowdown


It would seem that the downswing into this economic slowdown has been considerably faster than many expected (as it always seems to be). Since we first introduced Goldman's Swirlogram indicator the business cycle (in May 2012), helped by the promise more and more liquidity, we have rotated remarkably from slowdown to contraction to recovery to expansion and now - in November - the leading indicators are pointing to a rapid shift into a slowdown phase. The Global Leading Indicator (GLI) is losing momentum fast and has made lower cycle highs each time since the 2009 'recovery' began. While Goldman caveats some of this with 'Sandy'-related impacts, the GLI seems to confirm what Global PMIs are hinting at - that global growth is slowing.


The Hypocrite Of The Day Award Goes To...

While we largely enjoy Dallas Fed's Dick Fisher hawkish, non-conformist thinking at the FOMC, and his willingness to come up with amusing cartoon names to explain the Fed's monetary policy (we are currently on Toy Story, and specifically Buzz "To Infinity and Beyond" Lighyear), we certainly do not miss when even said faux Fed bad cops telegraph hypocrisy so gruesome it shows demonstrates beyond a shadow of a doubt just how fake the facade of the Fed's "contrarians" truly is. To wit:
  • FISHER SAYS U.S. LAWMAKERS HAVE BECOME `PARASITIC WASTRELS'
Riddle us this, Dick: just who is it that enables the US Lawmakers to fund trillion dollar deficits year after year at less than prohibitive terms, and more importantly, who is it that since 2009 has monetized virtually all 10 Year and longer gross issuance, thereby allow Congress to be a parasitic wastrel. Would you call that someone a "Wastrel enabler"?

How America's Middle Class, And Future Pensioners, Bailed Out A Generation Of Overzealous Homebuyers

In the current Bernanke-Obama-Keynes toxic triangle (defined previously here) economy, blink too long and you will miss the latest bailout. While 4 years ago, it was America's M.A.D.-hostage taxpaying middle class that had no choice but to fund the trillions in direct Fed cash handouts and guarantees to bail out the banks, in the process saving and preserving the trillions in wealth for America's uber wealthy (the "1%") class, ever since then it has been the government's turn to rescue the country's lower and lower-middle classes (the "47%"), who, with no gun to their heads, decided to splurge during the height of the housing bubble (insurmountable mortgage payments and $0 down notwithstanding) and buy that aspirational McMansion that would make them so much more appealing in the eyes of the next door neighbor (who too could never afford their house in the first place). This has happened courtesy of a progressively more pervasive mortgage forgiveness plan, which has seen the total amount of debt funding a given home purchase shrink little by little each day. However, since there is no free lunch anywhere, certainly not when a bank's balance sheet is being impaired, like in 2008, someone is once again on the hook for this latest bailout. That someone, not surprisingly, is again America's middle class that lived within its means, that saved money while others splurged, and even put cash away for retirement, handing it over to various Pension investment vehicles.


Spain’s Unpleasant Choice: Accept Lower Wages and Still Higher Unemployment, Leave the Euro and Default

On the near 100% probability that Germany will not voluntarily give money to Spain, nor will Germany voluntarily modify its trade policies, the choices facing Spain are quite bleak.
Michael Pettis, writing for Carnegie Europe describes Spain’s unpleasant choices in Spain Will be Forced to Choose.
In the great debate over the economy we sometimes forget the simple arithmetic of economic rebalancing. This arithmetic, like it or not, severely limits the options open to Spain.
Read More @ GlobalEconomicAnalysis.blogspot.com

Is Anyone Surprised?

Israel attacked and killed the top Hamas leader yesterday. The attacks back and forth commenced AFTER our elections; are you surprised? The “leadership scandal” within our military has only gone public, again, AFTER the elections. If you were watching closely for the last several months you would know that there has been a handful of other Generals and Admirals that have been replaced. There are several theories on this. My theory is that these were longtime and “conservative” leaders that were swept out of power in a clean sweep. Is this a surprise? I could also ask the same question about the recent deluge of negative economic reports and the suddenly declining stock market but I’ll let you think this through.
In the past, were any of our ambassadors killed and dragged through the streets, you could bet your bottom Dollar that swift and very forceful retribution would have been our response. Not so today. In the past, were Egypt (another “sort of” ally) to publicly back Hamas and oppose Israel, there would have been an immediate retraction from them and or a statement from The White House. Again, not so this time to the point where the only thing being heard are crickets, lots and lots of crickets.
Read more @ MilesFranklin.com

Your support is needed...
Thank You

I'm PayPal Verified     

High Gold Prices Push Many Indians to Silver

The stable price of silver has Indians investing in the white metal, with investors looking for good returns.
by Shivom Seth, MineWeb.com
It is not just gold that caught the eye of Indian consumers celebrating Diwali. Brisk business in silver was also seen in select parts of the country.
Given the high price of gold and the Indian government’s new regulation on buying gold and tax deductions at source, the sale of silver items at jewellery shops soared to a new high.
“Silver has proved to be the preferred substitute with most retail buyers this Diwali,” said Manish Mehta of bullion retailer, D P Zaveri and Sons
Read More @ MineWeb.com

4 More Years? DOW DROPS 1,008.59 POINTS IN 30 DAYS!

from facebook:


Bilderberg Group Quietly Meets in Italy

by Brandon Turbeville, Activist Post:
While the attention of most Americans was focused on whatever trivia dished out from the mainstream media such as the current hot celebrity or the David Petraeus incident, it appears that the Bilderberg Group has arranged what some have described as an impromptu meeting in Rome, Italy.
Yet, although much of the European press is dark on the issue, which is unfortunately characteristic of the mainstream media in any nation, some Italian newspapers are reporting the information regarding the meeting.
According to 21stCenturyWire, the agenda apparently centered around the fate of EU countries such as Italy, Spain, and Greece, three nations that have been hit hard with the worldwide derivatives crisis and the subsequent imposition of austerity.
Read More @ Activist Post

Silver’s Smoking Guns, Part I: Mining Paradox

by Jeff Nielson, Bullion Bulls Canada:
When a reader (and fellow silver-mining investor) recently expressed his frustrations on our Forum regarding the absurd valuations which most of these miners currently exhibit, I decided it was once again time to try to shed some light (and sanity?) on this subject.
When I began investing in these silver miners many years ago; one of the first anomalies to which I was introduced was that the vast majority of silver produced in the world (more than 75% at that time) was produced as a “byproduct” of other mining. While I immediately recognized that this was an extremely important factoid, at that time I lacked the level of understanding necessary to glean its true significance.
Since that time, the ramifications of these incredible parameters in silver mining are now apparent to me. Sadly, however, this important analytical point does not seem to be as apparent to others. While I’ve covered this subject matter once already in a prior commentary, the lack of general awareness in this area clearly merits repetition of this analysis.
Read More @ BullionBullsCanada.com

A (Federal Reserve) bank run: German style

from Gold Money:
Call it wishful thinking, but a small part of me thinks that the real reason why German officials are starting to ask tough questions about their gold reserves is because it is losing confidence in our monetary system. (And could you blame them? The Europe Union has a majority of countries in deep economic and political decline, and the United States government only knows how to borrow and spend trillions of dollars a year. It’s only a matter of time before everything falls apart.)
Incidentally, “confidence” is a word central bankers love to use. They are always talking about “renewing,” “rebuilding” or even “restoring” confidence. If they could only “boost confidence,” the economy would be much, much better.
Read More @ GoldMoney.com

Gerald Celente: “Unravelling Of Civilization”

from trendsjournal:


Why Texas would flourish as an independent Republic based on liberty, not debt

by Mike Adams, Natural News:
Citizens from all 50 U.S. states have now filed petitions with the White House asking for “peaceful secession” from the union. According to Daily Caller, more than 675,000 petition signatures have now been collected.
The Texas petition now has over 100,000 signatures, and more signatures are appearing by the hour.
It raises the practical question: Could Texas survive as a nation state if it secedes from the union?
The short answer is YES.
No state is better positioned than Texas to fend for itself
As you’ll see here, Texas is unquestionably the state best positioned to function as its own nation. Here’s why:
Read More @ NaturalNews.com

The FHA is Blowing Up: Bad News for the Housing Market

by Michael Krieger, Liberty Blitzkreig
A very important article came out from the Wall Street Journal yesterday titled “FHA Nears Need for Taxpayer Funds,” and it outlines the serious financial problems facing the Federal Housing Administration. For those that are unaware or need a refresher, the FHA has been the key element to the phony “housing recovery” the government has been trying to create. In the wake of the collapse of 2008, Fannie Mae and Freddie Mac blew up and what was left to pick up the pieces was the FHA. No private player would issue loans with down payments of 3%, but this was no problem for the FHA!
Interestingly enough, a lot of the subprime borrowers that blew up the housing market the last time became the primary customers of the FHA. Let’s see, 3% down and subprime borrowers…what could possibly go wrong?! From the WSJ:
The Federal Housing Administration is expected to report this week it could exhaust its reserves because of rising mortgage delinquencies, according to people familiar with the agency’s finances, a development that could result in the agency needing to draw on taxpayer funding for the first time in its 78-year history.
Read More @ LibertyBlitzkreig.com

Lemmings in Wonderland

by Joel Bowman, SilverBearCafe.com:
“If I had a world of my own,” declared Alice, Lewis Carroll’s red pill-popping protagonist while wandering around her author’s Wonderland, “everything would be nonsense. Nothing would be what it is, because everything would be what it isn’t. And contrary wise, what is, it wouldn’t be. And what it wouldn’t be, it would. You see?”
What’s going on, Fellow Reckoner? What’s happening…now that we’re through the looking glass? Stocks dawdle. Gold drags its chain. And the whole economy — to the extent that such a thing even exists — marches headlong off a cliff. That’s what we’re told. Welcome to post-election 2012…where nothing is quite as it seems.
Read More @ SilverBearCafe.com

When Money Dies: Daniel Sanchez

from misesmedia:

Archived from the live Mises.tv broadcast, this lecture by Danny Sanchez was presented at “What Has Government Done to Our Money? A Seminar for High School Students,” hosted by the Ludwig von Mises Institute in Auburn, Alabama, on 9 November 2012. Includes an introduction by Mark Thornton. Music by Kevin MacLeod.

Your support is needed...
Thank You

I'm PayPal Verified