- ECUADOR WANTS BANKS TO REPATRIATE ONE THIRD OF FOREIGN HOLDINGS
- ECUADOR TAX CHIEF CARRASCO SPEAKS TO CONGRESS IN QUITO
Frequent readers know that in addition of any "data" and "numbers" out of Larry Yun's National Association of Realtors, which we openly boycott as these are consistently manipulated (recall the massive historical December 2011 revision), slanted and conflicted, the second dataset which we have mocked with a passion is anything coming out of the ADP, which every month releases its "Private Jobs" number a day before the official BLS Non-farm Payroll data. Today, our mockeries have been proven 100% spot on. The reason? A week ago, ADP announced that going forward it would coordinate with Moody's (yes, that Moody's), and especially its chief economist, SecTres hopeful (InTrade odds of actually attain that post: 0.00) Mark Zandi, to fudge adjust its data going forward. The data revision was supposed to be publicly disclosed tomorrow when the official October ADP number was released. Well, just like today's Chicago PMI, and so many other data points recently, this too was released early. What the early release allowed us to promptly calculate is that using the historically revised numbers, and comparing those based on the original methodology, in 2012 alone, the US would have lost a whopping... 365,000 private jobs! Putting thus number in context, according to the revised methodology, the US has generated only 1.172MM jobs in 2012 through September, or in other words, a statistical "fix" magically eliminated over 30% of what the market had previously expected were job gains, a number which the incumbent president has certain taken advantage of on more than one occasions while campaigning.
Four years of glorious central-planning "extend and pretend" have enriched the political and financial Aristocracies, and imbued them with a bubble-era hubris that they have indeed gotten away with murder: the $6 trillion the Federal government borrowed over the past four years, the Fed's $2 trillion in fresh cash, the Fed's $16 trillion bailout of the banking sector and various perception management manipulations have righted the storm-tossed ship. All those with power in 2008 remain in power and all those with outsized wealth in 2008 still hold their outsized wealth. Except the financial tides and winds have shifted, and the linearity of central planning is about to be disrupted by nonlinear, positive-feedback storms.
While real consumer spending growth remains perilously close to recessionary levels for another year, one of our favorite indicators of real consumer sentiment (as opposed to the anchoring bias-driven surveys we are force-fed a few times per month) is the growth in spending on eating meals out. As Bloomberg Briefs notes, spending on dining out has fallen from 4.5% growth at the beginning of the year to under 1.8% growth currently (the lowest since May 2010). Add to this the slowdown in jewelry spending and the drag on discretionary spending likely from Sandy and we suspect the modicum of estimate revisions that have started to be published by sell-side analysts will need a little more adjustment.
This chart showing Sturm, Ruger's quarterly revenues needs no comment. There has evidently been no change in the trend of demand for weaponry
Every Halloween people are engaging in free-market anarchism whether they like it or not. To the economist, it’s clear that the child values receiving candy, even if it means dressing up in a funny or scary costume and going door-to-door, sometimes for hours, saying “trick or treat”. It’s clear that for the adults, joining in for the festive evening is valued more-so than the monetary value of the candy, or else they wouldn’t be giving it away. And some don’t. Some people, adults and children alike, shy away from Halloween night neither tricking nor treating nor allowing their homes to be used as candy repositories. To the free-market anarchist, Halloween is a perfect example of a non-coercive display of voluntary goodwill. Here is a spontaneous order of people partaking in a festive holiday without any expectation of monetary gain.
A headline in Tuesday’s OP-ED section of The New York Times summed up the mentality of too many Americans these days and all that is wrong with it: “A Big Storm Requires Big Government.”
If by that headline you deduced that the Times’ editors were stumping for a Big Brother (read federal government) response to Hurricane Sandy, you’d be right. But then, that’s a common reaction to any incident that you believe is too big for you and that scares you to death; when you’re conditioned to die, you look for someone else to come bail you out, to come save you, to rescue you from a situation for which you are wholly unprepared.
Read More @ NaturalNews.com
I'll bet these unemployed people wished they had a year supply of food...
European unemployment rises to 11.6%. Italian unemployment rises to 10.8%/Greek housing permits plummet 7.7%/Greece's new 2013 budgetary deficit : 5.2% and a Debt to GDP of only 189%/Japan's PMI implodes to 46.9/
Scanning the world, France ranks at or near the top in government transfers to households, vacation times and labor market rigidity, and at or near the bottom in hours worked per week, labor force participation rates and retirement age as a % of life expectancy. As JPMorgan's Michael Cembalest notes, France is a workers's utopia - which is expensive to maintain - and sure enough four out of four of its main economic indicators are accelerating lower since Hollande's 'Deluge' began.
As the one year anniversary of the MF Global Bankruptcy is upon us, the WSJ has now joined the NY Times in writing a ‘woe is me’ piece on behalf of Jon Corzine. The WSJ continues bemoaning the pitiable situation of “restlessness and frustration” of the former CEO of Goldman Sachs, former Governor of New Jersey, and former Senator from New Jersey who apparently isn’t content with being “confident about the likelihood that he will avoid any criminal charges related to MF Global.” Corzine is still estimated to be worth several hundred million dollars despite presiding over the failure of the largest non-bank commodity broker where $1.6 billion in customer money was stolen. I cry for him, I really do... Trying to portray Corzine as being focused on mundane things like finding a job rather than worried about doing jail time for his obvious crimes appears to be another prong of Corzine’s attorneys’ use of the Chewbacca Defense, along with saying that the fraud charges “Make No Sense,” because the money “Vaporized” and he had no motive since he had a de minimis portion of his net worth invested in MF Global stock. However, proving Corzine committed fraud and perjury would be relatively simple for any motivated prosecutor. Since the Department of Justice clearly is not motivated to prosecute Corzine after he bundled $500,000+ in campaign contributions to their boss, I provide this quick and easy guide for any ambitious state prosecutor to bring charges themselves:
While everyone is loudly patting themselves on the back for getting the electronic exchanges open and enabling a few proud men to wriggle out of positions (or into them) into month-end, we can't help but notice the overall weak tone of equities. The S&P 500 cash markets proclaim a very small green close but after-hours futures are getting hammered. The Dow is only -10pts (but with IBM and HD alone accounting for 25 points of gain!), The Nasdaq is leaking painfully as AAPL traded down exactly as we thought - inched back above VWAP and tumbled into the close -1.5%. Broad risk-assets, which had been indicating a lower move in US equities, kept on sliding and stocks stayed with them all day as correlations picked back up. Treasury yields are 4-6bps lower than Friday's close, the USD is down around -0.12%, but Gold and Silver are up 0.6% on the week now. Oil slipped (after a European close spike and dike) and Copper slid from the US open. The main story of today is the crash in S&P 500 futures after-hours to the lows of the day (down 8 points from its cash close).
From Reuters, which is also an involuntary accomplice in this latest HFT unmasking, courtesy of its institutional FX trading platform: "Thomson Reuters Corp is investigating whether one of its currency trading customers gained an unfair advantage when making high speed foreign exchange trades on its platform. Lucid Markets, a privately held electronic trading firm registered in Great Britain, may have benefited from trades using several connections on the Thomson Reuters Matching platform."
Thanks to Mr. 'Blockbuster' Icahn, who just announced a 10% stake in the company (for reasons that seem to a pure punt on it being bought out), NFLX is trading up 15% on the day and has filled its Q2 miss gap. He has been building a stake since early September (according to filings) and we suspect was pissed when Q3 earnings stumbled the stock back to below his average fill (allegedly). Of course hundreds of knife-catching hedge funds are thanking the great investor for giving them their exit from Q2 earnings' miss - it seems that you do indeed get a second chance to sell... cue CNBC M&A renaissance chatter...
Keynes' great fallacies: namely the idea that all economic activity – even unproductive activity – is somehow 'good'. Naturally, if it were really true that we could create economic progress by breaking windows or digging ditches (we will admit that pyramids at least render what one might term 'monument services', even if the expense seems hardly justified by this), then the government should pay half the population for digging ditches and hire the other half to wreak wanton destruction. The loss of wealth the hurricane has inflicted is very real; the wealth destroyed by it is most definitely gone.
as Forbes notes) were duped or not, one year on from MFGlobal, one thing is for sure - there is no more hated character in the pits of Chicago than Jon Corzine. CNBC's Rick Santelli says it all in this blockbuster rant against the incredible reality that this 'connected' individual has got away with monetary murder. Must watch - but beware your blood pressure... as he concludes "we haven't heard the end of this - Chicago will find the answers!"
Gold spot price moved toward our next resistance at 1,800 before taking an expected breather (see Figure 13), and has moved below 1,750 toward 1,700-1,680 where price may stabilize above the 200-day MA. The daily momentum (not shown) is negative reflecting the consolidation underway but does not preclude further risk. The weekly momentum (not shown) remains positive but is rolling over, suggestive of a consolidation in progress unless a renewed Sell signal comes into place.
Were price to slip below 1,680-1,660 there could be further risk toward 1,600 once again with the 1,563 low representing the former and still critical support. Were the equity market to embark on a serious decline over the coming weeks / months, Gold has had a tendency also to experience selling pressure, so this should be kept in mind.
Louise Yamada continues @ KingWorldNews.com
See what the mainstream media didn’t show you during the 2007 Security and Prosperity Partnership meeting in Canada. This Canadian documentary offers valuable lessons on the formation of the North American Union, something political leaders and mainstream media emphatically deny. (2009, 43min., DVD) This presentation, prepared by Press for Truth, has been edited by The John Birch Society.
Yet again, a federal judge undermined the Constitution in a wholly disturbing fashion, this time by allowing police to install hidden surveillance cameras on private property without obtaining a search warrant.
This is especially troubling since the federal government has conducted more warrantless surveillance over the past two years than the entire previous decade. This court decision can only be expected to increase that already troubling number.
Let us not forget that the Obama administration has fought vigorously to hold on to their ability to conduct warrantless wiretapping while also claiming that cell phone location data is not protected by the Constitution and the Supreme Court recently refused to review a lawsuit challenging the warrantless surveillance program of the National Security Agency (NSA).
Read More @ Activist Post
One in four people are now officially out of work in Spain as unemployment in the debt-ridden country reaches another record. The grim news comes as Madrid’s transport workers go on strike, adding to a sixth day of protests in the capital against austerity cuts.
The weakening Japanese economy and concerns that the country is heading towards deflation led the Bank of Japan to announce further monetary easing measures yesterday. This is the second month in a row that the BoJ has unveiled new money printing measures, an unusual step. Its asset purchases are increasing by Y11 trillion ($138bn) to a total of Y91tn.
Ironically, what ZeroHedge calls “QE9” from the BoJ actually led to a 50-pip drop in the USDJPY – not exactly the result that the Japanese were after. USDJPY is currently trading around where it was at the end of last week.
Read More @ GoldMoney.com
Four dollars for a can of coke. Five hundred dollars a night for a hotel in downtown Brooklyn. A pair of D-batteries for $6.99.
These are just a few of the examples of price hikes I or friends of mine have personally come across in the run-up and aftermath of hurricane Sandy. Price gouging, as this is often called, is a common occurrence during emergencies.
When everyone starts suddenly start buying batteries or bottles of water for fear of a blackout, shortages can arise. Sometimes there simply is not enough of a particular good to satisfy a sharp spike in demand. And so the question arises: how do we decide which customers get the batteries, the groceries, the gasoline?
Read More @ CNBC
Be sure and check out Bill Murphy’s comments (LeMetropole Café) today. He always has great things to say and his newsletter is one you should not miss. It is worth the price of admission many times over. Also, there is a wonderful essay by Sprott Global Resources that you should take the time to read here today. Both of these articles are outstanding.
Let’s see how gold is doing in four of the world’s major currencies. I have presented this chart before, but it’s time to review it again. Gold’s rise is a direct result of the central banks inflating (debasing) their currencies. Since gold is the only financial asset with no liabilities against it, gold has become very attractive to central banks and savvy investors, especially in India, China and Russia. The following chart prices gold in Dollars (Gold), euros (Blue), Japanese Yen (Red) and Swiss Francs (Purple):
Read More @ MilesFranklin.com
Money is a medium of exchange that functions in lieu of barter. As a medium of exchange, money comes into existence in two ways: either naturally, from people agreeing that some item or other has value for trade, or money exists as a form of state coercion, meaning that the state uses its power to demand that people accept something as payment. This basic tension informs much of monetary and economic history. Unfortunately, states presume that people will always want their money, or that the government has the power to control all economic transactions. But even in some of the most totalitarian regimes (think Maoist China or Stalinist Russia) exchange occurred naturally outside the state sanctioned system. In many cases, society just reverted back to barter due to lack of confidence in the state’s money or economic system.
To some of us, the above lesson seems particularly relevant for today. As an American, I know that most of my fellow countrymen and women have exactly zero wealth apart from government transfer payments, pensions, or the state-supported housing industry (most loans to homeowners today are backed by the government). Even when people have savings, too often it is in paper form—meaning some claim on real assets—and not a real asset itself, such as a farm, oil well, business, or other tangible item. Most people, it would seem, trust the state to take care of them.
Read More @ financialsense.com
One week before a close election, superstorm Sandy has confounded the presidential race, halted early voting in many areas and led some to ponder whether the election might even be postponed.
It could take days to restore electricity to more than 8 million homes and businesses that lost power when the storm pummeled the East Coast. That means it’s possible power could still be out in parts of some states on Election Day next Tuesday – a major problem for precincts that rely on electronic voting machines.
But as the storm breached the coast, even some of those intimately involved in the election seemed in the dark about what options are available to cope with the storm. Asked Monday whether President Barack Obama had the power to reschedule the election, White House press secretary Jay Carney said he wasn’t sure.
Read More @ MyWay.com
by Shivom Seth, MineWeb.com
Coming down heavily against gold once again, India’s apex bank the Reserve Bank of India (RBI) has asked banks not to finance the purchase of gold. Though the RBI has already halted banks’ ability to lend money for the purpose of purchasing gold bars, now the apex bank has slashed lending for gold in any form.
“No advances should be granted by banks against gold bullion to dealers/traders in gold if, in their assessment, such advances are likely to be utilised for purposes of financing gold purchase at auctions and/or speculative holding of stocks and bullion,” the bank says in its second quarter review of the monetary policy 2012-13 on October 30.
Read More @ MineWeb.com
JPMorgan Chase & Co. (JPM) sued the executive responsible for supervising Bruno Iksil, the trader nicknamed the London Whale for market-moving wagers at the division responsible for a $6.2 billion trading loss.
Javier Martin-Artajo, Iksil’s boss in the chief investment office, is a defendant in a London lawsuit filed Oct. 22 by the bank and made public today. The court filings didn’t reveal any details of the complaint. Both men have left the bank.
JPMorgan disclosed trading losses in May after what Chief Executive Officer Jamie Dimon said were “egregious” failures to manage flawed positions on synthetic credit securities. The bank is still recovering from those bets, the losses on which had risen to $6.2 billion through the first nine months of 2012 and may increase, the bank has said.
Read More @ Bloomberg.com
But some German politicians seem to be getting uncomfortable with trusting the US with this system. They want to actually see the gold, to make sure its still there. Some even want it back. A campaign called “Bring back our Gold” was launched in May, and seems to be making an impact on mainstream politics.
Der Spiegel’s Sven Böll and Anne Seith have published a good explainer about the situation. A large part of the movement seems to come from Peter Gauweiler, the head of the conservative Christian Social Union (CSU), who has for years demanded to know exactly where Germany’s gold is (He eventually was allowed to visit the Bundesbank’s domestic gold in storage in Frankfurt).
Read More @ BusinessInsider.com
Read More @ Silver Doctors