Tuesday, September 29, 2015

Glencore CDS Rout Continues, Curve Remains Inverted Even As Stock Rebounds On Sellside "Defense"

convincing equity that company is viable is one thing (and the company and its sellside cheerleaders sure are trying).  Convincing the far more skeptical bond market, which is desperately trying to figure out the counterparty risk, will be far more difficult...

The Week Begins On A Scary Note

from Dollar Collapse:

The US markets awoke to news of several big, disturbing overseas events:
Glencore implodes. Think of Swiss commodities giant Glencore as a modern version of Enron, in the sense that it owns physical assets like mines and oil wells around the world and runs perhaps the biggest commodities derivatives trading desk. And — also like Enron — it’s apparently unprepared for extreme commodity price volatility. This morning its stock price plunged even further and its credit default swaps — the cost of insuring payment on its its bonds — blew out to record levels.
Read More

Is Glencore The Next Lehman? The World’s Largest Commodities Trading Company Is Toast

by Michael Snyder, The Economic Collapse Blog:
Are we about to witness the most important global financial event since the collapse of Lehman Brothers in 2008?  Glencore has been known as the largest commodities trading company on the entire planet, and at one time it was ranked as the 10th biggest company in the world.  It is linked to trillions of dollars of derivatives trades globally, and if the firm were to implode it would be a financial disaster unlike anything that we have seen in Europe since the end of World War II.  Unfortunately, all signs are pointing to an inescapable death spiral for Glencore at this point.  The stock price was down nearly 30 percent on Monday, and overall Glencore stock has plunged nearly 80 percent since May.  There are certainly other candidates for “the next Lehman” (Petrobras and Deutsche Bank being two perfect examples), but Glencore has definitely surged to the front of the pack.  Right now many analysts are openly wondering if the firm will even be able to survive to the end of next month.
Read More…

38 Dead After Saudi Arabia - Head Of UN Human Rights Panel - Bombs Wedding In Yemen

Nothing screams out human rights like bombing women and children at a wedding party.


by Harvey Organ, HarveyOrganblog:
Good evening Ladies and Gentlemen:
Here are the following closes for gold and silver today:
Gold:  $1132.00 down $14.00   (comex closing time)
Silver $14.54 down 57 cents.
In the access market 5:15 pm
Gold $1132.70
Silver:  $14.60
I wrote the following last Thursday:
“On the 24th of September, the comex options expired but we still have the LBMA options as well as the OTC options.  Expect gold and silver to be relatively subdued until Oct 1.2015.”
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Goldman Capitulates, Cuts S&P 500 Earnings Forecast And Price Target; Sees Market At 2,000 By Year End

With three months left in the year, we were wondering how long it would take before Goldman's equity strategist would throw in the towel on his increasingly improbable (unless of course the Fed launches QE4, NIRP and/or helicopter money in the coming months) year-end S&P500 price target of 2100. The answer: not very long, as this is precisely what Goldman did overnight, when it cut both its 2015 and 2016 EPS forecasts (to $109 and $120 from $114 and $126), with a corresponding cut in Goldman's 2015 year-end price target from 2100 to 2,000, rising to a nice round 2,100 the year following.

Carl Icahn Says Market "Way Overpriced", Warns "God Knows Where This Is Going"

"They don't understand the treacherous path they are going down. God knows where this is going. It's very dangerous and could be disastrous."

Consumer Confidence Spikes Near 8-Year High Amid Global Turmoil But "Hope" Fades

For the second month in a row, US Consumer Confidence (according to The Conference Board) soared in September. Printing 103.00 (smashing expectations of 96.8) in September, this is just shy of January's high going back to August 2007. The biggest driver of this seemingly odd exuberance (amid global escalation in financial and physical wars) is the Present Situation (up from 115.8 to 121.1) while "hope" dropped from 91.6 to 91.0. As The Conference Board concludes, "while consumers view current economic conditions more favorably, they do not foresee growth accelerating in the months ahead.”

Cacophony Of The Clueless - FedSpeak Reaches Peak Confusion

Superficially one gets the impression that they aren’t really trying to “explain” anything to the hoi-polloi, since it all sounds remarkably uncoordinated. To the extent that the messages are contradictory, they merely reveal the literal impossibility of central planning – neither Dudley nor Evans can possibly know at what level short term interest rates should be set.

Why The Market Is Poised For A Rebound: Gartman Says "Bear Market" Will Take S&P To 1420-1550

Forget China, Volkswagen, Glencore, Noble, and pretty much everything else. The only catalyst that matters for today's price action has just been revealed. Earlier today, Dennis Gartman, whose flop-flip-flop-flipping calls on stocks, commodities and everything else have become a blur, just went mega bearish, and is predicting that the S&P has some 400 points of imminent downside.

Case-Shiller Home Prices Disappoint (Again), Tumble Most In 13 Months

For the 5th month in a row, Case-Shiller home prices missed expectations and dropped 0.2% MoM in July (the biggest drop since July 2014). Year-over-year, home prices have been stable around a 5% increase for 6 months which seems oddly linear and seasonally-smoothed, but broad price gains YoY also disappointed again, rising 4.7% (against 5.2% expectations). San Francisco and Denver continue to see the highest YoY gains (10.4% and 10.3% respectively) and Phoenix posted its 8th consecutive annual gain - the longest streak among the 20 major cities Case-Shiller track.

Axel Merk Warns ZIRP Is Bad For Everyone, "May Lead To War"

We call on central banks to abolish their zero interest rate policy (ZIRP) framework before more harm is done. In our assessment, ZIRP is bad for all stakeholders and may even lead to war.

Axel Springer Buys Business Insider For $443 Million, Paying 9x Projected Revenues

In the latest sign easy-money market froth may be peaking, moments ago German media conglomerate Axel Springer announced it has agreed to buy 88% of web-only Business Insider, adding to the 9% it already owns, for $343 million, which according to the Springer press release values 100% of the content aggregator at $442 million "on the basis of a cash and debt free valuation of USD 390 million." The remaining 3% of the company will be retained by Bezos Expeditions, the personal investment company of Jeff Bezos, who purchased a $5 million stake in 2013.

India "Surprises" 51 Out Of 52 "Experts", Slashes Rates More Than Expected As Easing Bonanza Continues

"Rate cuts should not be seen as goodies that the RBI gives out stingily after much public pleading"...

Frontrunning: September 29

  • Commodities in crisis as Asian shares tumble and shipper files for bankruptcy (Reuters)
  • Global Rout Eases as S&P 500 Futures Advance With Oil, Glencore (BBG)
  • Chinese Stocks Decline Most in a Month in Hong Kong on Economy (BBG)
  • India cuts interest rates by more than expected (BBC)
  • Glencore Rebounds as $50 Billion Plunge Is Seen as Excessive (BBG)
  • How Congress May Have Saved Goldman Sachs From Itself (BBG)

Asian Equities Tumble On Commodity Fears; US Futures Rebound After India "Unexpectedly" Eases More Than Expected

It was a tale of two markets overnight: Asia first - where all commodity hell broke loose - and then Europe (and the US), where central banks did everything they could to stabilize the already terrible sentiment.

UBS Is About To Blow The Cover On A Massive Gold-Rigging Scandal

Unlike previous gold probe cases, this one will have major consequences. How do we know? Because just like in LIBOR-gate, just like in FX-gate, it is the biggest rat of all, Swiss megabank UBS, that is about to turn on its former criminal peers.  As Bloomberg reported earlier "UBS was granted conditional leniency in Swiss antitrust probe of possible manipulation of precious metal prices." Why would UBS do this? The same reason UBS did so on at least on two prior occasions: the regulators have definitive proof it is involved, and gave it the option to turn evidence and to rat out its cartel peers, or face even more massive financial penalties. UBS, as usual, choice the former.

This Chart PROVES Stock Market Hasn’t Risen Since QE3!

from The Money GPS:

Putin Tells The World The US Pushes Regime Change Around The Globe

from X22 Report:

The Western Media Is Dying and Here’s Why

by Tony Cartalucci, Activist Post:

Seymour Hersh has risked much over his decades of journalism. He is a true journalist who has been attacked, slandered, and shunned by all sides simply because he seems to resist taking any side.
When he reported on US atrocities in Vietnam, he was first attacked and denounced as a traitor or worse. In time, both the truth and Hersh were vindicated and the importance of what he did as a journalist to both inform the public and serve as a check and balance against the special interests of ruling power were recognized with a Pultizer Prize.
In 2007, when he exposed the then Bush-administration’s plans to use the Muslim Brotherhood and militant groups linked to Al Qaeda to overthrow the government of Syria – the result of which is unfolding today – the New Yorker gladly welcomed his work as a message they perceived would resonate well with liberal audiences.
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Gold Miners: The Ultimate Contrarian Investment

from Gold Silver Worlds:
Let’s discuss one of the most oversold and hated investments in today’s financial market conditions – Gold Mining equities (NYSE: GDX).
Performance over three and twelve month time frames, together with sentiment and breadth readings, all indicate that the mining shares are most likely ready for a relief rally. Furthermore, the price of the mining equities has recently tested a major support level dating all the way back to year 2000. There should be buying interest right here and that is clearly seen by sky high volume in various ETFs such as (NYSE:GDX).
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Thomas Jefferson’s Prescient Warning on the Debt Ceiling Crisis

from Sovereign Man:
On May 28, 1816, Thomas Jefferson penned a letter to his friend John Taylor deeply criticizing the use of debt to fund a government’s excessive operations:
“[T]he principle of spending money to be paid by posterity, under the name of funding, is but swindling futurity on a large scale,”
Public debt is a weapon of mass destruction that constitutes theft upon future generations.
And as Jefferson argued in the letter, every new generation has the right to be born onto this planet unencumbered by the debts racked up by their ancestors.
But that’s not the way it is anymore.
Governments, like many individuals, no longer follow the Universal Law of Prosperity: produce more than you consume.
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ALERT! Stock Market Dives, and a Warning from Carl Icahn

from GregoryMannarino:

These Are Perilous Times And A Great Shock Is Coming

from KingWorldNews:
It is business as usual in the precious metals market after a flurry last Thursday when gold rose 2 percent and was immediately met with a wall of selling. I laughed when I saw Kitco attributed to the rally to short covering, only to see that theory destroyed when open interest rose over 8,000 contracts that day. The U.S. authorities must be petrified behind the scene as they see their economy weakening noticeably — a fact that is at odds with their bogus economic releases. The U.S. stock market is also under pressure once again and more and more countries are talking about eliminating the dollar from international transactions.
A Shock Is Coming When The Great Charade Finally Ends
But this charade will continue until it ends, and when it does there will be a reset in gold and silver prices to the upside that will come as a shock to many observers. There is abundant evidence that physical supply is becoming tight in both gold and silver. There is considerable backwardation in the London market. This is something that should never happen under normal circumstances. It is just another indication of a very tight physical market.
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10 Largest Global Markets are all Crashing – Money & Metals with David Morgan

from silver investor.com:

Vegetable Extract may Treat Autism Better than Drugs

by Christina Sarich, Natural Society:
A recent clinical trial has shown that one vegetable extract may have astounding positive effects on those with autism – broccoli extract.
The US Centers for Disease Control tells the world that there is no treatment for autism spectrum disorder (ASD). But now that one in every 68 children is showing symptoms of the disorder (a huge spike since the year 2000), you would think that a clinical trial involving a simple, natural food-based supplement would be front page news. This, however, is not the world we live in, so you likely haven’t heard about a possible solution for autism that doesn’t rely on pharmaceutical medication – until now.
Read More


Monday, September 28, 2015

Markets Gone Mad...

by Mike Whitney, Counter Punch:
Imagine your doctor put you on a daily dose of oxycontin, phenobarbital and Quaaludes for six years straight. Then he suddenly cancelled your prescription. Do you think your behavior might become a bit erratic?
This is what’s going on with the stock market. It’s trying to shake off six years of overmedication brought on by the Fed’s zero rates and liquidity injections.
Let me explain: Until recently, stocks had been on a tear that pushed valuations into the stratosphere. Volatility stayed low because Bernanke’s easy money and QE made investors more placid, serene and mellow.
Read More

Glencore Could Trigger A Global Derivatives Nuclear MeltdownSeptember 28, 2015
The middle class in America is like the housewife who knows her husband is cheating on her but she chooses to ignore it and pretend it will stop.   – Anonymous FOD – Friend of Dave’s
The system has been totally hijacked.  Make NO mistake about it, gold was hit hard when the paper trading in London cranked up after the SGE had turned off its lights for the day. The reason:  Glencore.
Anyone remember Enron?  Probably not.  Most people have already forgotten, mostly, that their taxpayer dollars were used by ex-Goldman CEO Henry Paulson to bail out Goldman Sachs in 2008 when he was Treasury Secretary.  His primary motive was to preserve the value of the $250 million in warrants he still owned after he got to unload $500 million in stock – tax-free.  Recently Zerohedge found a snapshot of Paulson laughing about the entire matter.
Glencore is going to make Enron look like a polite tea and cake break.  Gold was smashed when paper London opened because the Fed, BoE and ECB can not under any circumstances let the price of gold spike up – like it should be doing – and thereby alert the world that there’s a big problem in the world of derivatives related to Glencore, among other “things” (Emerging Market FX contract, energy, Biotech ETFs, etc).
The issue with Glencore, since we all saw it coming which means the Central Banks saw it coming, is the degree to which the CB’s have been able to “brace” for its impact.  The problem, however, is that just like Enron and the big banks before it, there is  100% probability that Glencore upper management has:  a)  lied about the market value of its assets, both on and off balance sheet;  b)  has lied about the true amount and nature of its derivatives exposure;  c) has been lied to by rank and file who are in charge of accounting and reporting the data to upper management (trust, me I know this goes on because I saw it first-hand at Bankers Trust;  and foremost, e)  has NO idea the true nature of its total exposure to the full lunar eclipse world of OTC derivatives.

Radioactive cesium-137 from Fukushima now detected off coast of Canada

by David Gutierrez, Natural News:
The first radioactive material from the 2011 Fukushima nuclear disaster has now been detected in the coastal waters of North America, according to a study conducted by researchers from Woods Hole Oceanographic Institution.
“Radioactivity can be dangerous, and we should be carefully monitoring the oceans after what is certainly the largest accidental release of radioactive contaminants to the oceans in history,” researcher Ken Buesseler said.
In March 2011, a massive earthquake and tsunami caused three separate nuclear meltdowns at Japans’ Fukushima Daiichi nuclear power plant. The explosion ejected massive amounts of radioactive material into the air, much of which ended up in the Pacific Ocean.
Read More

Found On A Volkswagen In Portland

Dear VW TDI Owner...

UBS Is About To Blow The Cover On A Massive Gold-Rigging Scandal

Unlike previous gold probe cases, this one will have major consequences. How do we know? Because just like in LIBOR-gate, just like in FX-gate, it is the biggest rat of all, Swiss megabank UBS, that is about to turn on its former criminal peers.  As Bloomberg reported earlier "UBS was granted conditional leniency in Swiss antitrust probe of possible manipulation of precious metal prices." Why would UBS do this? The same reason UBS did so on at least on two prior occasions: the regulators have definitive proof it is involved, and gave it the option to turn evidence and to rat out its cartel peers, or face even more massive financial penalties. UBS, as usual, choice the former.

"Minority Report" Is 40 Years Ahead of Schedule: The Fictional World Has Become Reality

We are a scant 40 years away from the futuristic world that science fiction author Philip K. Dick envisioned for Minority Report in which the government is all-seeing, all-knowing and all-powerful, and if you dare to step out of line, dark-clad police SWAT teams will crack a few skulls to bring the populace under control. Increasingly, the world around us resembles Dick’s dystopian police state in which the police combine widespread surveillance, behavior prediction technologies, data mining and precognitive technology to capture would-be criminals before they can do any damage. In other words, the government’s goal is to prevent crimes before they happen: precrime.

"Turmoil" - Aussie Miners Mauled, Baht Battered, Japan Jolted, & Asia's "Glencore" Crashes

Following on from a weak Europe and US session (despite late-day heroics in China last night), Fed confusion and commodity-complex counterparty-risk-concerns have sparked further turmoil across AsiaPac in the early going. Noble Group (asia's Glencore) is crashing, down 6.7% at the open. FX markets are seeing outflows send CNH below CNY for the first time since July and crush Thai Baht to its weakest since Jan 2007. Equity markets are in trouble with Aussie stocks hammered (driven by a plunge in Miners) and Nikkei 225 down 1000 points from Friday's highs. Asia credit markets have spiked to 2-year wides. China injected another CNY40bn and strengthened the fix (by the most since 9/2) for 2nd day in a row.

Confusing Inevitable With Imminent

The U.S. dollar is looking good worldwide and, in fact, so is gold - it’s just that, at present, the dollar is in the number one spot. But, unlike gold, the dollar is at risk. U.S. debt has placed it in a precarious position from which it will most certainly fall. The dollar is not a truly strong currency; it is essentially, “the best looking horse in the glue factory.” It will be the last to go, but it will indeed go. We may have a bit of time before that happens. Whether it’s measured in months or years, we can’t be certain. A gold mania is not imminent, but we believe it is inevitable.

Polish Army Begins Digging For Nazi "Gold" Train

The story of the mysterious Nazi train was all but forgotten until earlier today, when AFP reported that while the Polish propaganda machine has been busy to neutralize any speculation that such a train may indeed exist (or have been discovered) even though it explicitly admitted as much just a month ago, Poland's army confirmed that it has begun inspecting the southwestern area where two men claim to have discovered an armoured Nazi gold train buried at the end of World War II.

Fourth Turning: Crisis Of Trust, Part 3

The solution is not to let politicians redistribute the wealth from the rich to the poor. Crony capitalism must be replaced by true free market capitalism, practiced with integrity, fairness, principled conduct, intelligence, and high moral standards. Profits generated by corporations are not evil, but seeking profits at any cost to society is reckless, shortsighted and immoral. Capitalism without capital is destined for failure. When corporate CEOs, Wall Street bankers, and shady billionaires exercise undue influence over the financial, political and judicial systems, their short-term quarterly profit mindset and voracious appetite for riches override the best interests of the people and create a sick, warped, repressive society. Today our system is in the grasp of psychopaths whose hubris and myopic focus on enriching themselves will ultimately be their downfall.

Fukushima Reactor No.2 May Have Suffered Total Meltdown

To the extent the memory of Fukushima had faded over the last several years, the "fallout" (no pun intended) from the nuclear-like blast that tore through an industrial complex at the Chinese port of Tianjin last month served to remind the world of how far-reaching and unpredictable the consequences can be when disaster strikes at a site that houses potentially toxic materials. Well, don’t look now but experts now say the No. 2 reactor at Fukushima may have suffered a complete meltdown.

Caption Contest: Hope & Nope - The Odd Couple

After a 90-minute meeting, Presidents Obama and Putin emerge from the mudslinging apparently agreeing to disagree on everything. Putin blames US - specifically Obama - for "relations being so bad," adding trhat sanctions are not an "efficient" policy tool, and hopes US can play an active role in fighting ISIS with cooperation. Given the image below, we can only imagine how tense the meeting was...

Guest Post: It’s Not If But When

Since the 2008 crash there has been much talk about how the fundamentals have not been dealt with and the fact that the can has only been kicked down the road. Political mavericks and commentators such as Ron Paul have frequently pointed out that nothing has really changed and that we are heading for even bigger disasters ahead if we continue to play ostrich... The truth is that we never left the economic downturn – we are currently in a period of manipulation that’s sole purpose is to mask the fact that there has not been a boom (or recovery if you like) to trigger the next bust.

Stocks Battered To Black Monday Lows Amid Credit Crash, Biotech Bloodbath, & Commodity Carnage

China Is Betting Its Energy Future On This Tiny, Foreign City

No, it's not New York, or London; Moscow, Geneva, Vancouver or even D.C. According to Clarmond House, the most important foreign city - the one which China is making the center of its largest offshore infrastructure project - is the tiny port of Gwadar (population 85,000) which Pakistan purchased from Oman in 1958 for $1 million, and which has become the critical hub of China's future energy policy.

Kunstler Rages "Perhaps America Has Gotten What It Deserves"

"Did Charlie Rose look like a f##king idiot last night on 60-Minutes, or what...?"

Bubble Burst? IPOs Are Having Their Worst Year Since Lehman

IPOs have underperformed the S&P 500 by a stunning 17% year-to-date, extending losses today to 26% year-to-date. With private valuations still sky high in the minds of their VC 'guru' investors, we suspect the fact that this year is now the worst year for IPOs since 2008 will begin to raise doubts about even the most unicorn-y opportunity.

The Market In Pictures - The Aging Bull

What has always separated successful professional gamblers from the "weekend sucker" is knowing when to step away from the table.


Putin: “US-Led Coalition Must Understand. Only the Syrian People Are Entitled to Decide Who Should Govern Their Country”

from SyrianFreePress, via Global Research:
Charlie Rose sat down with Putin to discuss, among other issues, how the world views the Russian leader. CBS has published a preview of the interview.
Rose pointed out that some people have been referring to Putin as a ‘tsar.’ Putin responded that people call him various names, but added he believes the description “does not fit me.” 
It’s not important how I’m called, whether these are well-wishers, friends or political opponents. It’s important what you think about you, what you must do for the interest of the country which has entrusted you with the position as the head of the Russian state.
When asked what he admires about America, Putin said that what he likes most is “the creativity.”
Read More…

Why It’s Such a Struggle to Make Ends Meet, Explained in 8 Minutes

from smartknowledgeu:

In SKU Vlog 009, we discuss, in 8 minutes, why so many of us are struggling so severely to make ends meet today.

Prospecting the Gold Colonies

by Rick Mills, Ahead of the Herd:
As a general rule, the most successful man in life is the man who has the best information
From its headquarters at York Factory on Hudson Bay, the Hudson’s Bay Company (HBC) controlled the fur trade throughout much of North America for several centuries.
Gold discoveries were not reported – it was good policy (as we shall see), on the part of Hudson’s Bay, and other fur companies, not to talk about gold because protection of the fur trade was their overriding corporate interest.
Read More…

Trump: NAFTA is a Disaster

from shakaama:

Confusing Inevitable with Imminent

from International Man:

In the early 2000s, I began to advise friends and associates that much of the world would likely be entering a depression before the decade was out. In my belief, it would happen in stages, first with an initial mini-crash and recovery, but that, at some point, several years later, the recovery would prove to be a false one. The economy would remain in the doldrums. Then, a far bigger crash would take place and the world would be in a full-blown depression. As a hedge, I recommended that they buy gold, as gold would survive and retain value, as stocks, bonds, and even currencies went south.
I turned out to be correct on the timing of the initial crashes, but entirely incorrecton the timing of the second, greater crash.
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911 WHAT REALLY HAPPENED ?? See with your own eyes

from yvonne bailey:


Get Ready for QE4

from Casey Research:
Emerging markets are in trouble…
The iShares MSCI Emerging Markets ETF (EEM), which holds roughly 800 emerging-market stocks, is down 23% since last September.
And things have gotten even worse recently. EEM has now fallen for the past seven days straight.
John Burbank thinks the strong U.S. dollar is a big reason why…
Burbank founded Passport Capital, a hedge fund that manages $4.1 billion. He made a fortune betting against the U.S. housing market in 2007. Passport Capital’s main fund returned 219% that year.
Read More

Monetary Policy "Psy-Ops" - Why Central Bankers Should Be Seen And Not Heard

The Fed’s policy of forward guidance and radical transparency is not working. It turns out that letting the market peer over its shoulder as it makes monetary policy sausage is, in some ways, worse than the opaque process that existed prior to the arrival of Bernanke and Yellen. It pulls back the curtain and shows the human, error prone side of the Fed. Every time the Fed’s dots move, it is an admission of failure and undermines the very confidence it was trying to inspire.

UBS Is About To Blow The Cover On A Massive Gold-Rigging Scandal

Unlike previous gold probe cases, this one will have major consequences. How do we know? Because just like in LIBOR-gate, just like in FX-gate, it is the biggest rat of all, Swiss megabank UBS, that is about to turn on its former criminal peers.  As Bloomberg reported earlier "UBS was granted conditional leniency in Swiss antitrust probe of possible manipulation of precious metal prices." Why would UBS do this? The same reason UBS did so on at least on two prior occasions: the regulators have definitive proof it is involved, and gave it the option to turn evidence and to rat out its cartel peers, or face even more massive financial penalties. UBS, as usual, choice the former.

FX Liquidity Is Tumbling To Dangerous Levels

And The Market Breaks...

Stocks are down hard, JPY momo is not working, nor is VIX... time to break something...

Confusion-nado - 2015 Rate-Hike Odds Plunge To Record Lows After Fed's Evans Dovish Comments

We have had "bad cop" Dudley and so now "good cop" Evans unleashes more uncertainty, confusion, and farce:
The reaction was very clear, Fed Funds Futures dipped to record lows for October (16%) and December (41%). And worse still, "dovishness" did nothing for stocks at all...

The Next Looming "Commodity" Failure: Social Media

The social media space is beginning to make one wonder if they’re looking at an iron ore chart, or bulk shipper, rather than “the hottest space it all tech.” i.e., everything social. And it’s just the beginning in my opinion. Sooner or later Wall Street is going to come knocking for either its promise of profits. Or, its money back. And when that starts (which I believe has already begun) the mad-rush to cash-in what ever value a share might have that day will be assailed with stunning speed... much like the commodity space where stalwarts of an entire sector can find themselves struggling for solvency in mere months.

Ackman Loses $700 Million Instantly After Valeant Gets Drug Pricing Subpoena

Yet another nail in the Biotech Bubble's coffin as Bloomberg reports Valeant receives a subpoena from House Democrats over "massive price increases." The stock is down 12 % on the news extending the collapse of the last few days and weighing very heavily on the broad Biotech index. Very bad news for Bill Ackman and his 20 million shares...

The Echo Bubble In Housing Is About To Pop

The Federal Reserve-induced Echo Housing Bubble is finally starting to roll over, and the bubble's pop won't be pretty. Why is the bubble finally popping now? All the factors that inflated the Echo Housing bubble are running dry.

Currency Warfare: Ruble Plunges As Putin Speech Ends

We are sure it's just a coincidence but seconds after Vladimir Putin concluded his speech at The UN calling for a broad anti-terrorist coalition, the Russian Ruble was sold aggressively (after a relatively news-less and quiet day in the currency)...

Glencore Implodes: Stock Plunges Most Ever, CDS Blow Out To Record Up On Equity Wipeout Fears

Those who listened to our reco to buy Glencore CDS at 170 bps in March 2014 can take the rest of the year off. As of this moment, GLEN Credit Default Swap were pushing on 600 bps, 4 times wider, and on pace to take out the 2011 liquidity crunch highs. After that, it's smooth sailing to all time wides and the start of a self-fulfilling prophecy which leads to the Companys's IG downgrade and the collapse of trillions in derivative notionals as what may be the trading desk of the biggest commodity counterparty quietly goes out of business.

Prediction: Gold and Ratio Up, Stocks Down

from GoldSeek:

The price of gold moved up moderately, and the price of silver moved down a few cents this week. However, there were some interesting fireworks in the middle of the week. Tuesday, the prices dropped and Thursday the prices of the metals popped $23 and $0.34 respectively.
Everyone can judge the sentiment prevailing in gold and silver articles for themselves, but we think there is a growing feeling of optimism (that is a renewed fall in the dollar, which most think is a rise in gold). This goes along with a sense that the long bull run in the stock market is rolling over.
We are inclined to agree that the stock market may be overdue for its appointment with gravity.
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The Final Flush Is At Hand!

by Bill Holter, JS Mineset:
My Dear Extended Family,
Outright financial collapse, chaos and most probably war is not only in sight, it is imminent and unavoidable now. Normally I try to write and support my conclusions with current or past events via links to news. For this writing, because of the length and scope I don’t plan to do this. It will be assumed that you as the reader have already heard of or read evidence of what is put forth as connectable dots.
This past week, the following article was forwarded all over the internet
http://investmentwatchblog.com/if-deutsche-bank-goes-under-it-will-be-lehman-times-five/ as Deutsche Bank is “all of a sudden news”. Maybe this is a “German thing” with the latest out of Volkswagen?
Read More

Laser Equipped Drones Could Arrive Within 2 Years

from The Sleuth Journal:

The global drone arms race continues to accelerate. Now that it’s a foregone conclusion that every country will have armed drones within 10 years, the only race left is to acquire the most powerful weaponized drones – preferably coupled with the most sophisticated anti-drone technology.
General Atomics Aeronautical Systems, Inc., or GAASI,  the San Diego-based company that makes the Predator and Reaper drones, is undertaking a privately funded study to integrate a 150-kilowatt solid-state laser onto its Avenger (née Predator-C) drone. If the company succeeds, a drone with a high-energy laser will be a reality at some point in 2017, company executives told Defense One.

Read More

Obama Just Reacted To Boehner’s Resignation – And It Shows Why Conservatives Wanted Him Out

from Western Journalism:

Following U.S. House Speaker John Boehner’s announcement Friday that he will be resigning from the position effective Oct. 30, Barack Obama issued a response some critics on both sides of the aisle found indicative of the politically cozy relationship between the two leaders.
Describing the outgoing speaker as a “good man” and “a patriot,” Obama noted his desire that Boehner’s replacement follow suit by working across party lines to achieve common goals.
Obama’s brief remark fueled Twitter complaints that Boehner did not provide a strong conservative resistance to Democrat policies.
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filed under (unt

Bill Clinton Blames G.O.P. and Press for Wife’s Email Woes

by Amy Chozick, NYTimes:
Former President Bill Clinton blamed Republicans who hope to undercut his wife’s presidential chances and a voracious political news media uninterested in substance for the furor surrounding Hillary Rodham Clinton’s use of a private email account and server while she was secretary of state.
“I have never seen so much expended on so little,” Mr. Clinton said in a taped interview with Fareed Zakaria that is scheduled to be shown Sunday on CNN. The network released excerpts on Saturday afternoon.
“She said she was sorry that her personal email caused all this confusion,” Mr. Clinton said. “And she’d like to give the election back to the American people. I think it will be all right. But it’s obvious what happened.”
Read More…

What the Heck’s Happening to the Global Stock Markets?

from Wolf Street:

According to our soothsayers, when the Fed decided to keep interest rates where they’ve been since 2008, at near zero, rather than raise them, it should have triggered a big stock-market rally. But that’s not what happened.
Or rather, it triggered some rallies, but soon the hot air hissed out of them and they deflated. That’s what’s different this time: apparently nothing can keep these stocks propped up at these dizzying levels, not even the Fed.
Friday in the US, stocks rallied at the open, and by 1 PM, the S&P 500 hit 1,953, up 1% intraday and looking strong, when you could suddenly hear the hot air hissing out of it. In two hours it plunged 31 points to 1,922, before bouncing at the last hour to close down 1 point.
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Americans Call for Ban on Talking about Politics & Religion in Public

from Mark Dice


The Final Flush Is At Hand!

Posted at 6:36 PM (CST) by & filed under Bill Holter.

Dear CIGA,
Outright financial collapse, chaos and most probably war is not only in sight, it is imminent and unavoidable now. Normally I try to write and support my conclusions with current or past events via links to news. For this writing, because of the length and scope I don’t plan to do this. It will be assumed that you as the reader have already heard of or read evidence of what is put forth as connectable dots.
This past week, the following article was forwarded all over the internet
http://investmentwatchblog.com/if-deutsche-bank-goes-under-it-will-be-lehman-times-five/ as Deutsche Bank is “all of a sudden news”. Maybe this is a “German thing” with the latest out of Volkswagen? Deutsche Bank is not “all of a sudden”, they have been a derivatives monster for years and were saved in 2008 with part of the $16 trillion the Fed generously sprayed all over the world. The title suggesting DB will be the equivalent of five Lehmans is on the right track but not nearly severe enough. They are tied with JP Morgan as THE largest holder of derivatives in the world. Should Deutsche Bank fail, EVERYTHING FINANCIAL FAILS! It can even be said, “the entire world is Lehman” just waiting for their credit line to be cut 48 hours before complete failure.
What we are looking at now it “the FINAL FLUSH” of the Western financial system. The Federal Reserve has lost all credibility. This has followed both the Bank of Japan and European Central Bank being seen as hopelessly neutered of the ability to support the system. Confidence was THE very last “hope” and the Fed gave even that away last week. Of course the mainstream media chimed in on Friday saying the “market was up in the hopes of a rate hike in December”. Really? Are we to believe a tightening of credit is a good thing for a system buried in leverage and being dogged with liquidity drying up? This is like saying a flame thrower is the best tool for the California fires?
Money Velocity has crashed and so has global trade. Leveraged commodity trades have blown up and left many sectors dysfunctional. Has anyone stopped to think who (other than the sectors themselves) stands to lose with $45 oil? Maybe the lenders? Would this not tighten credit even further? Why do a dozen “advanced” economies already have stock markets in bear (minus 20%+) market territory?
Geopolitically we have watched as West has lined up against East militarily in many spots all over the world. The short list includes the South China Sea, Ukraine, Yemen and of course Syria. Russia began the build up militarily several weeks back along the Ukraine border and more recently inside Syria. Now China is reportedly sending hardware to Syria including http://www.debka.com/article/24909/A-Chinese-aircraft-carrier-docks-at-Tartus-to-support-Russian-Iranian-military-buildup ships. These are not bluffs as active fighting already exists. Can the U.S. actually “win” in any of these arenas in conventional war? It’s OK, you know the answer in your own mind, you also know what the alternative to losing conventionally is.
Before going any further I must ask you this question. Does the rule of law exist in the United States anymore? How many bankers went to jail over the blatant fraud in banking, real estate/mortgages? How many brokers went to jail for stacking MBS securities with guaranteed defaults while betting against the pools? How many exposed frauds within the Obama administration have gone un punished or even investigated? Do we really have three branches of government? Congress (Republicans) has done NOTHING they said they would when the public kicked out the snakes last November…only replaced by new ones apparently. The presidency has purged the armed forces of any conservative leadership and placed “czars” at the top of new and old agencies, what’s up with this?… which leaves the Supreme Court. They now effectively “write law” as they “interpret” ALL law. The Supremes will never see a duck as a duck and will write interpretations declaring the Sun full in the sky at midnight …final ruling and no appeal! “We the People” are screwed!
Speaking of “We the People”, while QE was used to mesmerize the middle class by holding the markets up, it in fact has gutted our real economy and has destroyed any possibility of making money the old fashioned way …by working! We now have one half or more of our population “taking” benefits and the other half “giving” them, any hope of a recovery led by the middle class is now gone as is the middle class.
Is it any wonder there are now shortages and tightness in the gold and silver markets? The East believes gold “IS” money, they also know the dollar is untenable and will not be a store of value. In fact, I believe China and Russia may step in to “help” the dollar fail. I still believe Mr. Putin will come forth with a “truth bomb”, I would love to be a fly (although hidden bugs will probably be everywhere) on the wall at tomorrow’s meeting between Presidents Xi and Obama. I can just imagine how the conversation might go, I cannot believe the U.S. will be barking ANY orders in any fashion. A sad statement but you must ask yourself this, does the U.S. have the power or ability to make demands? Remember, we are the debtor while they are the creditor!
In my opinion we are already well within the jaws of a meltdown/shutdown as liquidity is evaporating. There are a dozen developed countries with their stock markets already in bear markets (down 20% or more). All crashes come from oversold levels just as bank runs come on fast and are a surprise at the time. What is coming should be NO SURPRISE to anyone as we are looking at the end of not only an empire but of a flawed system which has endured for far too many years! This was a solvency problem in 2008 and “liquidity” was the incorrect tool used then. Now it is a bigger solvency problem with an illiquidity kicker attached …while the Fed has already used every tool imaginable and every last ounce of credibility. The loss of confidence in the issuer of the world’s reserve currency would be bad enough in an unlevered world, the loss of confidence in today’s “debt world” will be a DISASTER!
To wrap this up, do not let anything that may happen from here surprise you. The conditions are ripe for global currency crises and a shutdown of credit. The conditions are also ripe for hot war to explode in multiple venues. A meltdown or shutdown of markets will serve as a FINAL FLUSH of what remains left of the U.S. middle class. Without the “wealth” in stocks and homes, psychology will be toast. The U.S. is creating “income” from actual work at a third world level which is exactly where we are headed as our standard of living is “borrowed rather than owned”. My point is this, a market meltdown and credit shutdown will make the U.S. look like 1985 Bombay within weeks as we create nothing and have saved in “nothings” and owe everyone. This is the rosy scenario and assumes that martial law is not instituted (a poor assumption in my opinion!).
Standing watch with tears in my eyes,
Bill Holter
Holter-Sinclair collaboration
Comments welcome!  bholter@hotmail.com

Posted at 10:27 AM (CST) by & filed under In The News.

Jim Sinclair’s Commentary 
Blowback is everywhere over actions not thought out to their conclusions.

‘If we stop training, arming jihadists, the war will end’ – Virginia state senator to RTPublished time: 26 Sep, 2015 04:20Edited time: 26 Sep, 2015 15:32
As the Syrian civil war continues to rage and Islamic State maintains its foothold in the region, Virginia state Senator Dick Black told RT that “if the US stopped training jihadists and arming jihadists, the war will end.”
In a lengthy interview, the Republican state senator connected the crisis in Syria to the actions of countries such as Saudi Arabia and Turkey, who he said have armed extremists like Islamic State militants that are fighting against the Syrian government. He also blamed US meddling in the Middle East for the rise of terror groups like Islamic State (IS, also known as ISIS/ISIL).
“It is my hope and prayer that the United States wakes up and says it is time to end this slaughter. It is time to stop trying to topple regimes, bring order to the Middle East [and] stop the bloodshed. If we stop training jihadists and arming jihadists, the war will end.”
The US has been criticized for its efforts to thwart IS, particularly its plan to arm and train moderate Syrian rebels to battle the extremists. US Central Command said Friday that it learned that the commander of a Syrian rebel group trained by the US to fight Islamic State had “surrendered” a quarter of his unit’s military supplies to the Al-Qaeda-affiliated Al-Nusra Front in exchange for safe passage.

Jim Sinclair’s Commentary
If you mined and had substantial material in storage would you feel obligated to sell it, or overwhelmed by the desire to hold it?

Gold “Tightness”: When There’s No More To Sell, There’s No More To Buy (At Any Price)Submitted by Tyler Durden on 09/26/2015 16:00 -0400
Submitted by Chris Martenson via PeakProsperity.com,
One of our long-running themes here is that the truly historic and massive flows of gold from West to East is (someday) going to stop, for the simple reason that there will be no more physical bullion left to move.
It’s just a basic supply vs. demand issue.  At current rates of flow, sooner or later the West will entirely run out of physical gold to sell to China and India.  Although long before that hard limit, we suspect that the remaining holders of gold in the West will cease their willingness to part with their gold.
So the date at which “the West runs out of gold to sell” is somewhere between now and whenever the last willing Western seller parts with their last ounce.  As each day passes, we get closer and closer to that fateful moment.
This report centers on preponderance of fascinating data revealing the extent of the West’s massive dis-hoarding of physical gold, for the first time, begins to allow us to start estimating the range of end-dates for the flow to the East.
Here’s the punchline: there’s an enormous and growing disconnect between the cash and physical markets for gold. This is exactly what we would expect to precede a major market-shaking event based on a physical gold shortage.
Stopping the Flows
There are only two outcomes that will stop the process of Western gold flowing East, one illegitimate and the other legitimate.
1. It becomes illegal to sell gold.  This is the favored approach of central planners who prefer to force change by dictate rather than via free markets and free will.   Unfortunately, this strain of political intervention is dominant in the West, particularly in the US and EU.
2. The price of gold dramatically rises. A large increase in the price of gold will (paradoxically) cause greater demand for gold in the West and (sensibly) less demand in the East. This is what should legitimately happen given current supply and demand dynamics. But it may not.
There’s always a 3rd option, we suppose: economically carpet-bombing China and India’s financial systems to scare/force some gold back out. Consider such an approach along the ‘economic hitman’ lines of thinking.
This would be done, for example, by having outside interests sell the Rupee furiously, driving down its value and forcing the Indian monetary authorities to defend it by using up foreign reserves to buy the Rupee. Then wait for India to run out of foreign reserves and then casually ‘suggest’ that its government use gold sales to continue defending its currency.  India’s leaders would have to find ways to somehow ‘coax’ gold from its citizens.  I think we can all imagine the sorts of draconian rules and penalties that desperate governments would deploy in such a situation.
As a side note, I believe this is the same process that was used to ‘coax’ a lot of gold out of the GLD trust since 2012. After enough bear raids on the price of gold, which began somewhat suspiciously almost exactly on the date that QE3 was announced, Western gold ‘investors’ lost interest in the yellow metal, sold their GLD shares in droves, and hundreds of tons of gold were liberated from that stockpile.