Most Overhyped Black Friday In History A Dud? ShopperTrak Reports Just 0.3% Increase In Black Friday Sales Over 2009, Drop In Real Terms

The shopping day that was supposed to signal the renaissance of the US consumer, and justify the massive overhiring by US retailers (not to mention the completely dislocated from reality surge in stock price for razor thin margin retailers like Amazon), is increasingly seeming to be a dud. WSJ reports, citing channel checker ShopperTrak, that "Black Friday sales rose only slightly from a year ago even though more shoppers visited stores, retail traffic monitor ShopperTrak said Saturday, setting the stage for another uncertain holiday season for retailers. Sales increased 0.3% to $10.7 billion, according to ShopperTrak, which installs monitoring devices in stores to gauge traffic. Traffic rose by 2.2%, ShopperTrak said." For the observant ones out there, this is in nominal terms: adjusted for inflation there was actually a drop in end sales. Even so, the primary reason for the disappointment is that Black Friday actually started early on in the month, with most retailers offering comparable loss-leading deals such as those seen on the Friday after the national holiday early in November, reducing the actual purchasing power for the all important day. "The smaller than expected increase is due in part to discounts offered earlier in November as well as online-only promotions, ShopperTrak founder Bill Martin said. Traffic to stores was up over 6% for the first two weeks of November, an early boost that could affect retailers' performance in the coming weeks, he said." Last but not least it should also be noted that with millions of Americans living mortgage payment free for over 18 months now, and using money that should be going to banks (and nationalized GSEs) to instead purchase shoe closet 32 inch TVs, that sooner or later the bulk of American taxpayers who funded yet another top line (but certainly not margin) bonanza for the nation's retailers may soon say enough, and vote against further subsidies of zombie companies whose existence allows for continued US consumer "strength."

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Nutting Professor (The Mogambo Guru)

Jim’s Mailbox

Posted: Nov 27 2010     By: Jim Sinclair      Post Edited: November 27, 2010 at 6:56 pm
Filed under: Jim's Mailbox
Gold Is the World’s Premier Currency, According To The Markets 

CIGA Eric
There is so much happening now that any thought other than self protections is madness. The dollar is no safe haven. Gold will trade at and above $1650.
Jim

Russia now suggests that they could one day join the Euro. This commentary came only days after they had announced that they have quit the dollar. "Yes, there are problems", as the headline below suggests that the size of the rescue package could be increased to restore confidence in the Euro. Apparently, the fact that nearly all western nations are defaulting on their debt through currency devaluation still makes fiat (Euro) an attractive alternative.

Headline: Putin: Russia will join the euro one day
Speaking at a conference in Germany the Russian prime minister, who is in the country for talks with Chancellor Angela Merkel, said he was convinced the euro would stabilise and strengthen despite the current sovereign debt crisis.
He said: "Yes, there are problems. But the economic policy of the European Central Bank and of the governments of leading European economies … convinces me that the stability of the euro will be ensured."

Headline: ECB’s Weber Says Europe’s Rescue Fund Could Be Increased If More Needed
European Central Bank council member Axel Weber said governments can increase the size of the European Union-led bailout fund if necessary to restore confidence in the euro.
“Seven hundred and fifty billion should be enough to assure the markets,” Weber said at the German embassy in Paris late yesterday. “If not, it will have to be increased.” In a worst-case scenario, the fund would need an additional 140 billion euros ($187 billion), an amount that would not jeopardize the survival of the euro, Weber said in Berlin today

Headline: European Banks ‘Nearly Bust’ If Euro Collapses, Evolution Says
The European banking system would be “nearly bust” if the euro were to be abandoned which means the 16-member currency “cannot and should not go,” Evolution Securities Ltd. said.
“If the euro is abandoned, and we go back to the peseta, lira, escudo, drachma etc., devaluations would follow immediately,” said Arturo de Frias, head of bank research at Evolution in a note to investors today, adding the industry is a “great buying opportunity.” Devaluations mean write-offs “of a size that would render the whole European banking system completely insolvent.”
The markets trends, rather than fancy rhetoric, clearly illustrate what Jim describes as a state of self preservation in the currency markets. Gold has once again stepped into the confidence vacuum as the world’s premier currency.
Key points of the following trends
(1) The fiat price of gold is rising in all global currencies
(2) The stronger fiat currencies are revealed by those yet to set new relative highs and lower angles of ascension.
(3) Gold has been the world’s premier currency since 2000-2001. This is a fact that won’t be universally recognized until nearly the end of gold’s price adjustment.
US Dollar Gold:
Yen Gold:
Mexican Peso Gold
Euro Gold:
Canadian Dollar Gold:
British Pound:
Australian Dollar Gold:
Swedish Krona Gold:
Swiss Franc Gold:
Rouble Gold:
Real Gold:
More…