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Normalcy bias

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The normalcy bias refers to an extreme mental state people enter when facing a disaster. It causes people to underestimate both the possibility of a disaster occurring and its possible effects. This often results in situations where people fail to adequately prepare for a disaster, and on a larger scale, the failure of the government to include the populace in its disaster preparations. The assumption that is made in the case of the normalcy bias is that since a disaster never has occurred that it never will occur. It also results in the inability of people to cope with a disaster once it occurs. People with a normalcy bias have difficulties reacting to something they have not experienced before. People also tend to interpret warnings in the most optimistic way possible, seizing on any ambiguities to infer a less serious situation.^[1]

Possible causes

The normalcy bias may be caused in part by the way the brain processes new data. Research suggests that even when the brain is calm, it takes 8–10 seconds to process new information. Stress slows the process, and when the brain cannot find an acceptable response to a situation, it fixates on a single solution that may or may not be correct. An evolutionary reason for this response could be that paralysis gives an animal a better chance of surviving an attack; predators are less likely to eat prey that isn't struggling.^[2]

Effects

The normalcy bias often results in unnecessary deaths in disaster situations. The lack of preparation for disasters often leads to inadequate shelter, supplies, and evacuation plans. Even when all these things are in place, individuals with a normalcy bias often refuse to leave their homes. Studies have shown that more than 70% of people check with others before deciding to evacuate.^[2]
The normalcy bias also causes people to drastically underestimate the effects of the disaster. Therefore, they think that everything will be all right, while information from the radio, television, or neighbors gives them reason to believe there is a risk. This creates a cognitive dissonance that they then must work to eliminate. Some manage to eliminate it by refusing to believe new warnings coming in and refusing to evacuate (maintaining the normalcy bias), while others eliminate the dissonance by escaping the danger. The possibility that some may refuse to evacuate causes significant problems in disaster planning.^[3]

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In The News Today

Posted: Dec 24 2010     By: Jim Sinclair      Post Edited: December 24, 2010 at 2:37 pm
Filed under: In The News


Jim Sinclair’s Commentary
This fellow is going to go to jail for life based on a warrant for primary school truancy 40 years ago.

Norwegian Paper Obtains WikiLeaks Cable Haul By NAT WORDEN
DECEMBER 23, 2010, 6:29 P.M. ET
NEW YORK (Dow Jones)–A Norwegian newspaper in possession of WikiLeaks’ entire trove of 250,000 diplomatic cables is scouring the documents for new revelations, one of the reporters assigned to the story said Thursday.
"There are many stories that haven’t been told yet, and we’re looking forward to telling them," said Kristoffer Rønneberg, one of the 20 reporters that Aftenposten, Norway’s largest daily newspaper, has poring over the cables and crafting news stories from that material.
"Our main concern is to bring news to our audience and to the public, and as far as what we choose to report, we will take the same factors under consideration with these cables as we would with any other information we obtain through our reporting," said Mr. Rønneberg, a 32-year-old reporter on Aftenposten’s foreign news desk
He said the cables include large amounts of background on Osama Bin Laden’s activities before the 9/11 attacks, including his dealings with the Taliban in Afghanistan and Sudan.
Mr. Rønneberg said Aftenposten gained access to a smaller number of Norway-related Wikileaks cables two and a half weeks ago through a collaboration with a Swedish newspaper that had some of the cables. About 10 days ago, Aftenposten gained access to the entire trove of cables through other means. He declined to comment further on how the cables were obtained, except to say that the newspaper didn’t pay for them and it has no restrictions imposed on it on how it can use the material.
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