Thursday, June 2, 2011

posted by Harvey Organ at Harvey Organ's - The Daily Gold and Silver Report - 5 hours ago
Good evening Ladies and Gentlemen: Tomorrow will be the release of the jobs number and as is the custom of the bankers they always raid gold on the day before the number is revealed.  Today was no exceptio...



 Update...
Borrowed a computer for a few days...still looking for a computer...
Hopefully everything will be back to normal tomorrow...
Any donations would be greatly appreciated, to help cover the cost of the computer...
Thanks
John


Pentagon Warns Of M.A.D. Should The War Powers Act Be Enacted And US Withdraw Its Troops From Libya


Who says Mutual Assured Destruction is to be used only by bankers: our military leaders appear to have mastered the strategy of getting what they want to warning about all hell breaking loose, just as effectively. Reuters reports that should Congress pursue a resolution to withdraw from the humanitarian Libyian oil liberation force, currently headed by Sarkozy, it would send an "unhelpful message of disunity" to allies and foes alike. "Pentagon Press Secretary Geoff Morrell said that "once military forces are committed, such actions by Congress can have significant consequences," particularly on relations with members of the North Atlantic Treaty Organization. "It sends an unhelpful message of disunity and uncertainty to our troops, our allies and, most importantly, the Gaddafi regime," Morrell said in a statement in Singapore, where Defense Secretary Robert Gates arrived on Thursday to attend a security dialogue with Asian allies...Kucinich's measure would invoke the 1973 War Powers Resolution to direct Obama to stop the U.S. participation in the war. Kucinich says Obama violated the part of the law that prohibits U.S. armed forces from being involved in military actions for more than 60 days without congressional authorization." Kucinich seems to forget that reminding a constitutional lawyer about constitutional abuses is actually racist. And more importantly, what excuse will those hundreds of billions in "defense spending" by the US government have if America's military is relegated to "bankster" status in terms of utility.




EU Commission Denies Agreement On New Greek Aid Plan



And.... U-turn
  • EU COMMISSION DENIES AGREEMENT ON NEW GREEK AID PLAN
There is no point in even commenting on the cannonade of unbelievable bullshit coming out of Europe at this moment.
The central planners have now officially lost their minds.




Moody's Says It Expects To Place US Rating For Downgrade Review If No Progress On Increasing Statutory Debt Limit


From Moodys, which now appears to have been hacked by Greece (in what may or may not be considered an act of war): "If the debt limit is raised and default avoided, the Aaa rating will be maintained. However, the rating outlook will depend on the outcome of negotiations on deficit reduction. A credible agreement on substantial deficit reduction would support a continued stable outlook; lack of such an agreement could prompt Moody's to change its outlook to negative on the Aaa rating....Although Moody's fully expected political wrangling prior to an increase in the statutory debt limit, the degree of entrenchment into conflicting positions has exceeded expectations. The heightened polarization over the debt limit has increased the odds of a short-lived default. If this situation remains unchanged in coming weeks, Moody's will place the rating under review.Translation: unless America promises to increase its total debt to 120% of GDP in one year, the current debt which is just under 100% will be downgraded.





Postcards From Greece




These seem to be becoming quite popular lately: This particular one was titled: "Let them buy bonds." We are waiting to see how it will be revised following today's wonderful "Bailout #2" news.



Hourly Action In Gold From Trader Dan

Dear CIGAs,
Near midmorning, chatter began occurring that a “lifeline” had been extended to Greece, some sort of new deal that would include the private sector, although the details remain sketchy. Supposedly those will be filled in and be completed near June 20, which is when the euro zone finance ministers are planning on next meeting. Regardless, the Euro shot up higher on the news and as it did, gold began seeing short covering and fresh buying surface. That buying took it back over chart support at the $1530 level, under which it had fallen earlier during the session.
Of course, the safe haven trade of buying the US Dollar evaporated on the Euro strength and back down towards 74 on the USDX it went.
The US equity markets then began moving off their lows and the long bond dropped rather dramatically. Silver recovered well off its worst levels of the session after falling below $36 at one point. Basically what happened was that the Greece news set off another round of risk trades which took many of the commodity markets either higher for the day or off their lows as the hedgies’ algorithms went crazy in the other direction after they unloaded everything earlier during the day.
More madness – more volatility. We are no longer trading; we are playing pin ball. At least the brokers must love it because they are making a damn fortune on the commissions with all these trades being yanked off, put back on again, yanked off and slammed back on once again. Lather, rinse, repeat.
Don’t even waste your time trying to discern any trends in this sort of insanity. Whatever the hedge fund algorithms decide to do at any given moment, is where the markets are going to go for the time being. It really all comes down to that. Either risk is in or risk is out. If it is out, equities and most commodities are going lower with bonds going higher. If it is in, equities and most commodities are going higher with bonds going lower. The general exception is gold which while it gets caught up somewhat in the selling tied to risk aversion trades, is holding very well as it is getting its own safe haven flows.
Gold is still range bound with a higher bias at the moment. The push to $1550, an initial target, was successful and that led to some short term oriented longs booking some profits. Support to the downside lies first near $1530 and then down towards $1512 or so should that give way. For a test of $1575 to occur, it needs to push through $1550 and hold that level on any round of profit taking.
Click chart to enlarge in PDF format with commentary from Trader Dan Norcini
For further market analysis and commentary, please see Trader Dan’s website at www.traderdan.net

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In The News Today

Jim Sinclair’s Commentary

QE to infinity or the greatest depression of all human history. This is all thanks to our OTC derivative manufacturers and distributors who have not lost a beat in their endless creation of these weapons of mass Western financial destruction.

Horror for US Economy as Data Falls off Cliff Published: Wednesday, 1 Jun 2011 | 2:09 PM ET
By: Patrick Allen

The last month has been a horror show for the U.S. economy, with economic data falling off a cliff, according to Mike Riddell, a fund manager at M&G Investments in London.
"It seems that almost every bit of data about the health of the US economy has disappointed expectations recently," said Riddell, in a note sent to CNBC on Wednesday.
"US house prices have fallen by more than 5 percent year on year, pending home sales have collapsed and existing home sales disappointed, the trend of improving jobless claims has arrested, first quarter GDP wasn’t revised upwards by the 0.4 percent forecast, durables goods orders shrank, manufacturing surveys from Philadelphia Fed, Richmond Fed and Chicago Fed were all very disappointing."
"And that’s just in the last week and a bit," said Riddell.
Pointing to the dramatic turnaround in the Citigroup "Economic Surprise Index" for the United States, Riddell said the tumble in a matter of months to negative from positive is almost as bad as the situation before the collapse of Lehman Brothers in 2008.
More…




Jim Sinclair’s Commentary

Which means "QE to Infinity."

Employment Data May Be the Key to the President’s Job By BINYAMIN APPELBAUM
WASHINGTON — No American president since Franklin Delano Roosevelt has won a second term in office when the unemployment rate on Election Day topped 7.2 percent.
Seventeen months before the next election, it is increasingly clear that President Obama must defy that trend to keep his job.
Roughly 9 percent of Americans who want to go to work cannot find an employer. Companies are firing fewer people, but hiring remains anemic. And the vast majority of economic forecasters, including the president’s own advisers, predict only modest progress by November 2012.
The latest job numbers, due Friday, are expected to provide new cause for concern. Other indicators suggest the pace of growth is flagging. Weak manufacturing data, a gloomy reading on jobs in advance of Friday’s report and a drop in auto sales led the markets to their worst close since August, and those declines carried over into Asia Thursday.
But the grim reality of widespread unemployment is drawing little response from Washington. The Federal Reserve says it is all but tapped out. There is even less reason to expect Congressional action. Both Democrats and Republicans see clear steps to create jobs, but they are trying to walk in opposite directions and are making little progress.
More…




Jim Sinclair’s Commentary

QE to infinity.

Fed officials sing from same easy money hymn sheet.
Top Federal Reserve officials Sandra Pianalto and Janet Yellen have maintained that the bank’s easy money policies remain appropriate given the high unemployment rate. "We’ve got a long way to go before labor markets can be described as healthy again," said Pianalto. John Williams, president of the San Francisco Fed, said the Fed’s two rounds of asset purchases will have boosted GDP by about 3% and added about 3M jobs by the second half of 2012. Data from payrolls processing company ADP Employer Services yesterday showed that employment growth slowed sharply in May (.pdf), leading economists to cut their forecasts for government non-farm payroll figures, which are due out tomorrow.



Jim Sinclair’s Commentary

In this case the economy would implode instantly, bond rates explode, and the dollar as in the 70s (rising interest rates and rising inflation) would be annihilated, boosting the price of gold.
That is the "Rock and the Hard Place."

Washington, Beijing to Block Money Printing
Published: Thursday, 2 Jun 2011 | 4:05 AM ET
By: Patrick Allen

The economic data in the US is heading south and investors are beginning to question whether the Federal Reserve will extend its asset-buying program beyond the end of the month.
One economist though believes the forces against such a move make the chances of Ben Bernanke and the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) pulling the trigger on the third round of asset buying – also known under the acronym QE3 – slim.
“It seems Mr Bernanke would face major difficulties marshalling a FOMC consensus in favor of further monetary ease, even if he had a mind to do so,” said Stephen Lewis, the chief economist at Monument Securities in a research note.
Consensus on the FOMC is unlikely to be the biggest obstacle to QE3 according to Lewis.
“The balance of opinion on the FOMC is not the chief obstacle to the Fed’s prolonging its asset purchases.
More…




As I have said for over 3 years...they will print money until we run out of trees...QE to Infinity and Beyond...
Today we hear from 2 Fed officials who state their wish that QEIII should start immediately:
(courtesy Reuters)

Jobs malaise warrants easy policy: Fed officials



COLUMBUS Ohio | Thu Jun 2, 2011 12:20am EDT
(Reuters) - The high unemployment rate means the Fed's ultra-easy money policies remain the right course of action, top Federal Reserve officials said on Wednesday.
High unemployment is not a "quickly resolvable problem," but April's job gains show that the economic recovery is on a firmer footing, Cleveland Fed President Sandra Pianalto said.
"We've got a long way to go before labor markets can be described as healthy again," Pianalto told the Columbus Metropolitan Club.
Recent rises in food and energy prices mean inflation will likely be temporarily higher this year, she said. But both wages and the public's long-term expectations of inflation remain subdued, she noted.
Given that backdrop, she said, current monetary policy is appropriate. Pianalto's views tend to hew closely to those of Chairman Ben Bernanke and the center of the Fed's policy-setting committee.
Fed Vice Chair Janet Yellen similarly endorsed the Fed's stance of promising to hold rates near zero for an extended period as it completes $600 billion of bond purchases by the end of June.
"The current accommodative stance of U.S. monetary policy continues to be appropriate because the unemployment rate remains elevated and inflation is expected to remain subdued over the medium run," she said in a speech on assessing potential financial imbalances to a conference in Tokyo.
Once complete, the U.S. central bank's two rounds of asset purchases will boost GDP by about 3 percent and add about 3 million jobs by the second half of next year, San Francisco Federal Reserve Bank president John Williams said in a speech at the regional bank's headquarters. They also probably kept the United States from falling into deflation, he said.
"Of course, once the economy improves sufficiently, the Fed will need to raise interest rates to keep the economy from overheating and excessive inflation from emerging," said Williams, who has his first vote on the Fed's policy-setting committee next year.
The Fed can do so, he said, by raising the interest it pays on excess bank reserves along with its short-term interest-rate target, and by reducing its long-term securities holdings.
None of the three directly addressed Wednesday's weak data, which showed U.S. companies hired far fewer workers than expected in May. The jobs report for May is due from the Labor Department on Friday, and economists on Wednesday were cutting their forecasts for employment growth.
"Recent gains in the labor market suggest that the economy is on (a) firmer footing and that the recovery is likely to continue. However, growth may be frustratingly slow at times," Pianalto said.
Recent weak data has raised concerns that the U.S. recovery is running out of steam.
But in a response to an audience question, Pianalto said she is less worried about the recent economic soft patch because business confidence appears to be holding up better than this time last year, when the European sovereign debt crisis slowed the U.S. recovery.
"This time around, even though we are once again seeing some softness we are not seeing the same reaction on the part of businesses," she said, adding she had not heard of businesses pulling back on investments and noted they are still hiring.
At its last policy-setting meeting, the Fed signaled its $600 billion bond-buying program would end as planned in June, while also suggesting it was in no rush to raise interest rates. The Fed has kept interest rates at record lows near zero since December 2008.
Pianalto said she expects inflation to fall back below 2 percent in the next couple of years and that it could take about five years for the jobless rate to reach its long-run sustainable rate of 5.5 percent to 6 percent. She said she expects the economy to continue at a "gradual recovery pace" of just above 3 percent per year over the next few years.
Williams also said he expects growth of about 3 percent this year and sees inflation falling to 1.25 percent to 1.5 percent next year, below the Fed's informal 2 percent target.
Inflation expectations meanwhile remain "amazingly" well-anchored, both in the U.S. and Europe, despite the huge shocks of the last several years, Williams said.
That stability "gives better maneuvering room for the Fed and other central banks to combat the actual declines in economic activity and increases in unemployment," he said.
(Additional reporting by Mark Felsenthal in WASHINGTON and Ann Saphir in CHICAGO; Editing byGary Hill and Ramya Venugopal)

 

Miss Me Yet?

As I have mentioned several times over the last 6 months...my computer was dying and needed replaced...

I'm working on finding a replacement...and should be back up soon...maybe even tonight...I found a cheap Lenovo for $300.00 I'm going to look at now...

If for some reason you have been putting off donating a few dollars...now would be a great time...

 

Thanks

John


Wednesday, June 1, 2011

Did The Fed Just Give The Green Light To Sell The Stock Market? 


Remember when the president uttered the magic words back in March 2009, when he said that "profit and earning ratios [whatever the hell those are] are starting to get to the point where buying stocks is a potentially good deal if you’ve got a long-term perspective on it" giving the green light for the 2 year bear market rally? Well, if that was global market Risk On, Janet Yellen just gave the Risk Off command. To wit: "forward price-to-earnings ratios in the stock market fall within the ranges prevailing in recent decades, and are well below the early-2000 peak, although corresponding measures for small-cap equities (not shown) appear somewhat elevated....special questions included in the March 2011 SCOOS suggest an increase in the use of leverage by some traditionally unlevered investors (such as pension funds and insurance companies) as well as hedge funds during the previous six months. " Yup: small caps, aka the Russell 2000, aka the Economy according to the Fed's third mandate. Ironically, the Fed realizes the Catch 22 it is caught in, which we noted earlier, namely that stocks are pricing in QE 3, but for QE 3 to happen stocks have to drop 20% from here. Well, this may be the last warning from the Fed.




Consumer Confidence Is Now Lower Than During All Recent Financial Crises And Tragedies 



One chart stands out in today's Breakfast with Rosie: the comparison of yesterday's surprisingly weak Consumer Confidence number with comparable prints taken at financial crises and tragedies of the past such as the October 1987 markets crash, Desert Storm, LTCM, the dot com collapse, September 11, Katrina, and Lehman. No surprise: yesterday's was the lowest. And as a reminder, the president's reelection campaign kicks into higher gear in a few months...against the backdrop of the most unhappy popular sentiment in recent years. Just how do QE 3 skeptics believe he will succeed, when still faced with consumer confidence that two years into the "recovery" is lower than during any other previous economic "expansion", even as congress is about to unleash the most brutal wave of fiscal consolidation (aka austerity) in recent American history. 
 
 
 
 
 
"What we’ve got right now is almost near panic going on with money managers and people who are responsible for money. They can not find a yield and you just don’t want to be putting your money into commodities or things that are punts that might work out or they might not depending on what happens with the economy... ...We’re on the verge of a great, great depression. The [Federal Reserve] knows it. We have many, many homeowners that are totally underwater here and cannot get out from under..." - Peter Yastrow, market strategist for Yastrow Origer, June 1, 2011

 

Illustrations Are Not Just Cartoons





My Dear Friends,
Illustrations are not cartoons. They are teaching tools commissioned and paid for here for your best interest.
The key to gold at $1650 and well above is the fact that there is no economic recovery. Stimulation will have to continue and increase if the Western World is to try kicking the can of a depression worse than anything you can imagine down the road.
They will.
The Skier teaches this process in three illustrations. Please spend some time meditating about what this means to you.
Respectfully yours,
Jim Sinclair




Jim’s Mailbox

Gold Stocks Action Providing Technical Confirmation 

CIGA Eric

The technical message in the gold stock sector has begun to confirm the bullish setups in the leveraged markets. This combined setup suggests, like equities, an unexpected bullish outcome this summer/fall.
Junior Gold Miners Index to Gold Ratio: clip_image001
Junior Gold Miners Index to Major Gold Miners Index Ratio: clip_image002
Retest of Support As Resistance CIGA Eric
Silver, driven by hyperinflation, will resume its run once the underside kiss (smooch) is complete.
Gold to Silver Ratio: clip_image001[5]

More…




clip_image002


Jim Sinclair’s Commentary

QE is QE by any name, to infinity.

Prepare for More Money Printing: Analyst Published: Wednesday, 1 Jun 2011 | 6:42 AM ET
Jessica Hartogs

Investors should prepare themselves for a third round of quantitative easing, Simon Maughn, co-head of European equities at MF Global, told CNBC Wednesday.
“The bond market is going in one direction which is up-falling yields which is telling you quite clearly the direction of economic travel is downwards. Downgrades. QE3 (a third round of quantitative easing) is coming,” said Maughn. “The bond markets are all smarter than us, and that’s exactly what the bond markets are telling me.”
“What’s interesting in the bond markets over the last couple of sessions is, you’ve seen human traders trying to step in and call this turn in the market the same way that equities have done … and they have just been mowed down by the quant funds which are all about leverage, all about momentum and are betting on bond prices going up,” added Maughn.
Once again, the United States will step up as the marginal buyer of bonds, said Maughn.
"One more big injection of cash into the bond market should take you through at least the summer season into the beginning of the fourth quarter.”
More…




Dreaded Double-Dip Is Here

Greg Hunter’s USAWatchdeog.com


Dear CIGAs,

I have been telling you the economy is not in any kind of real recovery for more than a year.  Sources I have been quoting have been proven right, and all the economic cheerleaders dead wrong.  Reuters reported yesterday, “Data showing a double-dip in home prices, pessimistic consumers and a slowdown in regional manufacturing raised concerns on Tuesday that the economy’s soft patch could become protracted.” (Click here to read the complete Reuters report.) “Could become protracted?” It is protracted, and now the data is suggesting the economy is getting ready for another cliff dive.
Let’s concentrate on what has been a huge driver of the economy—housing.  A double-dip in housing could start a daisy chain of very bad news for the big banks exposed to derivatives and residential real estate.  According to the latest S&P/Case-Shiller home price report released yesterday, prices hit a new low in the first quarter–plunging 4.2% in just three months!  If you look back six months, prices are off nearly 8% according to Case/Shiller.  If you look on the chart on the first page of the Case/Shiller press release (click here), it clearly shows a double dip in housing.  That is exactly what was predicted nearly a year ago on this site.  One of the many people I quoted was renowned banking analyst Meredith Whitney who said last June, “Unequivocally, I see a double-dip in housing.  There’s no doubt about it . . . prices are going down again.” (Click here to read my original post from a year ago.) At the time, many people thought Ms. Whitney was being overly pessimistic.  In fact, her dire prediction has come true.  This is despite the more than $2 trillion spent in QE1 and QE2 (printing money out of thin air to buy government and private debt) by the Federal Reserve.  QE1 &QE2 helped fuel the stock market and artificially held mortgage interest rates at absurdly low levels and, yet, housing continues to crash.  Good call Ms. Whitney!
Another one of my favorite people to quote is economist John Williams of Shadowstats.com. He has been warning about a sinking economy for months and has been saying any good news is nothing more than “bottom bouncing.” In his most recent report, Williams said, “Most major economic reports in April disappointed consensus expectations and either were flat or negative for the month—including real retail sales, industrial production, housing starts and durable goods orders.  Where first-quarter GDP growth slowed versus the fourth-quarter, the stage is set for the GDP to turn negative, again, sometime in the next two quarters, reflecting what would become an official double-dip recession.” Housing has been an unqualified disaster with housing starts and new home sales off 75% from the 2005 peak.  Existing home sales are off nearly 30%, and of the homes that are sold, nearly 40% are foreclosures.  Four in 10 homes sold as distressed properties do not signal a healthy economy—just the opposite.
More…







Harvey Organ, June 1, 2011

World Economies falling over a cliff/No Bailout for Greece/Ireland will stiff the bankers

 

You decide...

Russia Says IMF Chief Jailed For Discovering All US Gold Is Gone

Posted by EU Times on May 31st, 2011 //
A new report prepared for Prime Minister Putin by the Federal Security Service (FSB) says that former International Monetary Fund (IMF) Chief Dominique Strauss-Kahn was charged and jailed in the US for sex crimes on May 14th after his discovery that all of the gold held in the United States Bullion Depository located at Fort Knox was ‘missing and/or unaccounted’ for.
According to this FSB secret report, Strauss-Kahn had become "increasingly concerned" earlier this month after the United States began "stalling" its pledged delivery to the IMF of 191.3 tons of goldagreed to under the Second Amendment of the Articles of Agreement signed by the Executive Board in April 1978 that were to be sold to fund what are called Special Drawing Rights (SDRs) as an alternative to what are called reserve currencies.
This FSB report further states that upon Strauss-Kahn raising his concerns with American government officials close to President Obama he was ‘contacted’ by ‘rogue elements’ within the Central Intelligence Agency (CIA) who provided him ‘firm evidence’ that all of the gold reported to be held by the US ‘was gone’.
Upon Strauss-Kahn receiving the CIA evidence, this report continues, he made immediate arrangements to leave the US for Paris, but when contacted by agents working for France’s General Directorate for External Security (DGSE) that American authorities were seeking his capture he fled to New York City’s JFK airport following these agents directive not to take his cell-phone because US police could track his exact location.

Once Strauss-Kahn was safely boarded on an Air France flight to Paris, however, this FSB report says he made a ‘fatal mistake’ by calling the hotel from a phone on the plane and asking them to forwarded the cell-phone he had been told to leave behind to his French residence, after which US agents were able to track and apprehend him.
Within the past fortnight, this report continues, Strauss-Kahn reached out to his close friend and top Egyptian banker Mahmoud Abdel Salam Omar to retrieve from the US the evidence given to him by the CIA. Omar, however, and exactly like Strauss-Kahn before him, was charged yesterdayby the US with a sex crime against a luxury hotel maid, a charge the FSB labels as ‘beyond belief’ due to Omar being 74-years-old and a devout Muslim.
In an astounding move puzzling many in Moscow, Putin after reading this secret FSB report today ordered posted to the Kremlin’s official website a defense of Strauss-Khan becoming the first world leader to state that the former IMF chief was a victim of a US conspiracy. Putin further stated, "It’s hard for me to evaluate the hidden political motives but I cannot believe that it looks the way it was initially introduced. It doesn’t sit right in my head."
Interesting to note about all of these events is that one of the United States top Congressman, and 2012 Presidential candidate, Ron Paul [photo bottom left] has long stated his belief that the US government has lied about its gold reserves held at Fort Knox. So concerned had Congressman Paul become about the US government and the Federal Reserve hiding the truth about American gold reserves he put forward a bill in late 2010 to force an audit of them, but which was subsequently defeated by Obama regime forces.
When directly asked by reporters if he believed there was no gold in Fort Knox or the Federal Reserve, Congressman Paul gave the incredible reply, "I think it is a possibility."
Also interesting to note is that barely 3 days after the arrest of Strauss-Kahn, Congressman Paul made a new call for the US to sell its gold reserves by stating, "Given the high price it is now, and the tremendous debt problem we now have, by all means, sell at the peak."
Bizarre reports emanating from the US for years, however, suggest there is no gold to sell, and as we can read as posted in 2009 on the ViewZone.Com news site:
"In October of 2009 the Chinese received a shipment of gold bars. Gold is regularly exchanges between countries to pay debts and to settle the so-called balance of trade. Most gold is exchanged and stored in vaults under the supervision of a special organization based in London, the London Bullion Market Association (or LBMA). When the shipment was received, the Chinese government asked that special tests be performed to guarantee the purity and weight of the gold bars. In this test, four small holed are drilled into the gold bars and the metal is then analyzed.
Officials were shocked to learn that the bars were fake. They contained cores of tungsten with only a outer coating of real gold. What’s more, these gold bars, containing serial numbers for tracking, originated in the US and had been stored in Fort Knox for years. There were reportedly between 5,600 to 5,700 bars, weighing 400 oz. each, in the shipment!"
To the final fate of Strauss-Kahn it is not in our knowing, but new reports coming from the United States show his determination not to go down without a fight as he has hired what is described as a ‘crack team’ of former CIA spies, private investigators and media advisers to defend him.
To the practical effects on the global economy should it be proved that the US, indeed, has been lying about its gold reserves, Russia’s Central Bank yesterday ordered the interest rate raised from 0.25 to 3.5 percent and Putin ordered the export ban on wheat and grain crops lifted by July 1st in a move designed to fill the Motherlands coffers with money that normally would have flowed to the US.
The American peoples ability to know the truth of these things, and as always, has been shouted out by their propaganda media organs leaving them in danger of not being prepared for the horrific economic collapse of their nation now believed will much sooner than later.
-END-




Scotia Mocatta Loses 60% Of Its Physical Silver In One Month To "Reclassification", Total Comex Registered Silver Now Under 30 Million Ounces 


About a month ago we indicated that Comex depository Scotia Mocatta "lost" 25% of its Registered (aka Physical) silver after the vault encountered a "reporting reclassification" which saw 5,287,142 ounces of silver moved from Registered to Eligible status, dropping the vault's true holdings from 11.8 million ounces to 6.5 million. Naturally, the response from the peanut gallery was that this was a tempest in a teacup and it was "temporary" and a-ha, any minute it would reverse, and all shall be well, everyone would live happily ever after, and the Comex would actually have silver available for delivery purposes. We decided to not hold our breath. Which after pulling today's most recent Comex warehouse data appears to have been a prudent decision, because for the first time ever total registered silver has dropped below 30 million ounces, after experiencing a 5% overnight drop across the board, primarily driven by yet another 1,456,488 ounce "adjustment" of warehoused silver from Registered To Eligible at Scotia Mocatta. As of last night, total Scotia physical silver was now 4,740,447 ounces, a 24% drop overnight, and a massive 60% drop from the total which we captured on April 20. Still think it's temporary?




JPM Lowers Q2 GDP For Second Time In A Week, Warns Of A "Severe Downgrade" To Forecast In Case Of A Technical Default (No, Really) 

And to think they cut it from 3% to 2.5% just a week ago. Michael Feroli, take it away: "When we revised down our estimate of Q2 GDP growth last week to 2.5% we noted that the risks to this quarter were still to the downside. Given the hard activity data we've received since then -- particularly the auto sales and construction report -- it looks like those downside risks are being realized, and we are lowering our Q2 projection to 2.0%. Even with this revision we'd assess the risks as still a little to the downside. Most of our downward revision in Q2 is located in consumer spending, where we think growth this quarter is tracking close to 1.5%. If our new estimate for Q2 is realized, GDP growth relative to a year-ago would be only 2.4%, implying almost no closing of the output gap over the past year -- an abysmal performance given that the output gap is arguably greater than 5% of potential GDP, or less arguably, that there are still almost 14 million unemployed workers. Our forecast implicitly assumes the debt ceiling issue is resolved in a manner which does not see a technical default of the US Treasury. Of course if that assumption were not to hold all cards would be off the table and we almost certainly have to pencil in a much more severe downgrade to our growth forecast. Our Fed call is unchanged and continues to look for a first hike in 1Q13.
 
 
 
 

Moody's Downgrades Greece To Just A Few Notches Above Default: From B1 To Caa1, Outlook Negative 

Next up: Greece begins criminal proceedings against the rating agency for character defamantion and libel (or is that slander?). Also, Belgium is next. Yet most importantly, there is no mention in the downgrade if the "Vienna plan" currently contemplated, or the latest zany "debt rolling" proposal constitutes an Event Of Default, meaning the market will have even more uncertaintly to grapple with. From Moody's "The main triggers for today's downgrade are as follows: 1. The increased risk that Greece will fail to stabilise its debt position, without a debt restructuring, in light of (1) the ever-increasing scale of the implementation challenges facing the government, (2) the country's highly uncertain growth prospects and (3) a track record of underperformance against budget consolidation targets. 2. The increased likelihood that Greece's supporters (the IMF, ECB and the EU Commission, together known as the "Troika") will, at some point in the future, require the participation of private creditors in a debt restructuring as a precondition for funding support. Taken together, these risks imply at least an even chance of default over the rating horizon. Moody's points out that, over five-year investment horizons, around 50% of Caa1-rated sovereigns, non-financial corporate and financial institutions have consistently met their debt service requirements on a timely basis, while around 50% have defaulted.
 
 
 
 
 
 

China Prepares To Export More Inflation Back To US As It Announces Hikes In Commercial Electricity Prices 


So much for the interesting theory presented a few days back from Bernstein that one contrarian response from China to its electricity shortage problem is not to hike prices but instead to slow down its economy by pushing the margin producers out and allow the economy to slow down on its own. As a reminder, last Friday Bernstein analysts Parket and Leung, in discussing the 30 gigawatt power shortage currently gripping China, was the following: "a nationwide power price increase to alleviate the problem is not likely. Letting the current stand-off run its course – in the worst case scenario, allowing electricity shortages and the high price of fuel substitutes to force factories to shut down - would slow the economy. And that's the key point in our view: increasing electricity prices is inflationary while holding prices steady would achieve the NDRC's current economic goals." Alas, China has opted for the convention path, and as Business China reports, "China will raise prices for electricity used for industrial, commercial and agricultural purposes to curb demand from energy-intensive industries and encourage power generators to increase electricity supplies." Sigh - add more inflation, more resultant PBoC tightening, and more of the same dog chasing its tail failed policies that will lead the world's fastest growing economy nowhere fast. 

Moody's Downgrades Greece To Just A Few Notches Above Default: From B1 To Caa1, Outlook Negative 


Next up: Greece begins criminal proceedings against the rating agency for character defamantion and liber (or is that slander?). Also, Belgium is next. Yet most importantly, there is no mention in the downgrade if the "Vienna plan" currently contemplated, or the latest zany "debt rolling" proposal constitutes an Event Of Default, meaning the market will have even more uncertaintly to grapple with. From Moody's "The main triggers for today's downgrade are as follows: 1. The increased risk that Greece will fail to stabilise its debt position, without a debt restructuring, in light of (1) the ever-increasing scale of the implementation challenges facing the government, (2) the country's highly uncertain growth prospects and (3) a track record of underperformance against budget consolidation targets. 2. The increased likelihood that Greece's supporters (the IMF, ECB and the EU Commission, together known as the "Troika") will, at some point in the future, require the participation of private creditors in a debt restructuring as a precondition for funding support. Taken together, these risks imply at least an even chance of default over the rating horizon. Moody's points out that, over five-year investment horizons, around 50% of Caa1-rated sovereigns, non-financial corporate and financial institutions have consistently met their debt service requirements on a timely basis, while around 50% have defaulted.

Prepared Testimony By Fed's General Counsel To Be Used In Today's Ron Paul Hearing 


Update: Hearing has been delayed until 3 pm.
While we await to find and bring to our readers the channel that will carry today's hearing between the House Financial Services Committee on the topic of "Federal Reserve Lending Disclosure: FOIA, Dodd-Frank, and the Data Dump" chaired by Ron Paul and Fed and NY Fed General Counsels, Thomas C. Baxter, Jr., and Scott G. Alvarez, below we present their prepared testimony that was just released by the New York Fed. The key section from the testimony: "We remain concerned that a more rapid release of information about borrowers accessing the discount window and emergency lending facilities could impair the ability of the Federal Reserve to provide the liquidity needed to ensure the smooth working of the financial system. If institutions believe that publication of their use of Federal Reserve lending facilities will impair public confidence in the institution, then institutions may choose not to participate in these facilities. Experience has shown that banks’ unwillingness to use the discount window can result in more volatile short-term interest rates and reduced financial market liquidity that, in turn, can contribute to declining asset prices and reduced lending to consumers and small businesses." Luckily, courtesy of $1.6 trillion in excess reserves, and the stigma now associated with Discount Window borrowings, for everyone except for Dexia, we doubt the Fed will ever have to worry about the discount window before the banking kleptoracy blows itself up once again. 

Richard Koo Calls For, Surprise, More Reconstruction Stimulus To Prevent Japan's Natural Disaster From Becoming A Man-Made Calamity 


Richard Koo is back with his latest piece titled, not surprisingly, that "Fiscal Consolidation is Not the Answer" - alas, a decimated by (previously secret) debt European continent, and even America, is rapidly starting to disagree with this assessment, which stems from the faulty assumption that the economic "balance" achieved after 30 years of endless balance sheet expansion courtesy of ever declining interest rates is sustainable. Hint: it isn't. And until the world realizes that it is precisely this Fiscal Consolidation that is the answer, we will continue seeing bankers sell bits and pieces of Greece to each other, transfer payments in the US from the government ending up straight in Wall Street pockets, and broadly the Big getting Ever Bigger to Fail. Yet for those who still believe (Krugman) that one last hit is all it takes and after that it will be better, here is Koo's summary, on why Japan, which we continue to believe is the key macroeconomic variable over the near term, may be in very deep trouble unless it commences yet another (what number is that, #20, #50, is anyone even keeping score?) round of fiscal or monetary stimulus: "Fortunately for the Kan administration, Japanese institutional investors have been dealing with this surplus of private savings on a daily basis for more than 15 years and understand its macroeconomic implications. It is only because of their calm and calculated response to these conditions that the yield on 10-year JGBs remains at 1.2%. To prevent this natural disaster from becoming a man-made calamity (ie a recession), the government needs to push ahead with reconstruction efforts. With private savings surging, the necessary funds can be borrowed for now. Later, once businesses and households start looking to the future, funding can and should be shifted to tax hikes and budget reshuffles." That is the conventional wisdom. For all those who wish to read what will happen if and when Japan continues on this unsustainable path of converting private savings into public funding without regard for demographics, please read Dylan Grice (here, here and here).




Tim Geithner Top Tick Op-Ed #2: "A Rescue Worth Fueling" 


About a year after Tim Geithner literally top-ticked the economy with his first Op-Ed, "Welcome to the Recovery", which came days ahead of the QE 2 announcement, he has just released his Op-Ed #2 "A Rescue Worth Fueling" in the WaPo, in which he praises the administration for using billions in taxpayer capital to save a few hundred thousand union jobs. His bottom line: "The domestic automakers are getting stronger. For the first time since 2004, each has achieved positive quarterly net income." Perfect release timing: just as both GM and Ford announce a drop in monthly sales, and GM discloses record channel stuffing. If there is one call to fade and short all the US automakers, this is it.





 Jim Rogers Blog - 1 hour ago
"If any of you have bonds, I would urge you to go home and sell them. If any of you are bond portfolio managers, I would get another job if I were you, I would think about becoming a farmer.” - *in Uncommo...

Gross' Compares Bondholders To Slowly Boiling Frogs, Explains How PIMCO Is Profitable Despite Treasury Short Position 


Just out in Bill Gross' latest monthly missive in which he compares Treasury longs to frogs in a pot, which are slowly starting to boil. As a result, he issues a clarion call to all: "All right fellow frogs, so we’re being repressed and shortchanged in order to allow Uncle Sam to balance its books. Whatta we gonna do about it? “Frogs of the world unite,” as Lenin might have said" and urges bondholders to be properly compensated for their risk by switching out of "rich" fixed rate into "cheap" floating rate exposure. The reason is that nominal yields, Gross contends, just make no sense: "Prices are already nearing the boiling point and his coupons are subzero, CPI adjusted. Total return…and our frog…are cooked, or if not they are certainly trapped in a future low return kettle of water." Then, Gross once again goes on a detour to explain how contrary to being short Treasury exposure (and we will have more of a breakdown on this shortly), PIMCO is still having a good year: "Journalists, financial advisors, and perhaps even some clients marvel at how PIMCO can be doing so well in 2011 while being underweight the Treasury/durational component of the bond market. Folks – we're making butter....We suggest buying “cheap bonds” focusing on “safe spread,” which means buying more floating and fewer fixed rate notes, adding an additional credit component – be it investment grade, high yield, non-agency mortgage or emerging market related – and shading your portfolio in the direction of non-dollar emerging market currencies. Investors shouldn’t give their money away, and at the moment, the duration component of a bond portfolio comes close to doing just that – not because a bear market is just around the corner come July 1, but because it doesn’t yield enough relative to inflation. Come on frogs, make butter, not someone else’s dinner." As always an engrossing read.

Goldman Cuts NFP Forecast To 100,000 - Sheer Panic On Wall Street As The Heroin Addicts Demand QE3 NOW 


Not even 5 mintues ago we predicted that Goldman would lower its 150,000 NFP forecast to 125,000. Well, even we were off. Hatzius just cut his Friday NFP forecast to 100,000. Just like last August when the horrendous NFP number set off QE2, so Wall Street is in full panic mode, as it tries to find a way to crush stocks enough to give Bernanke validation for QE3, but without getting retail to throw in the towel for the last time. Still to come: the firm trimming H2 GDP to under 3%. We give it a few days. "We are lowering our forecast for May nonfarm payroll employment to +100,000 from +150,000 previously. While the ADP report has a mixed tracked record in forecasting payroll growth, our research indicates it should receive some weight. Moreover, the weakness in the ADP report follows a streak of weaker-than-expected news on both the labor market and activity as whole. We are holding our forecast for the unemployment rate at 8.9% and for average hourly earnings growth at 0.2% mom." Elsewhere, Joe Lavorgna is dry heaving in a corner somewhere, trying to find a way not to look like a complete idiot for having to cut his NFP forecast two days in a row, from 300,000 to under 150,000. 

Gold Vertical As Market Realizes That After QE 2 Comes.... 



So finally, after much delay, the market lemmings realize that after QE2 comes QE3. 

Deutsche Bank's Joe Lavorgna Cuts His NFP Forecast From 300,000 To 160,000 In Two Days 


There is little we can add to what can only be classified as career suicide facilitated by terminal incompetence from one of CNBC's most beloved "economists" (in this case, naturally, Deutsche Bank's Joe LaVorgna), who just cut his NFP estimate from 300,000 to 160,000 in two days. From yesterday: "Our preliminary estimates were for +300k on payrolls and a three-tenths decline in the unemployment rate to 8.7%. However, in light of the softer tone of the data—particularly the inability of initial jobless claims to recover below 400k—we trimmed our projections. We lowered our May payroll estimate to +225k and raised our unemployment rate target to 8.9%." And from 10 minutes ago: "In light of the significant downside surprise in the ADP employment numbers earlier today, as well as the equally important slowdown in the ISM employment component, we are trimming our May nonfarm payroll projection to 160k from 225k as we previously estimated. We project private payrolls to increase 185k. We continue to anticipate a one-tenth decline in the unemployment rate to 8.9%."




Europe Delays Second Bank Stress Test Due To "Unrealistic Assumptions" And "Errors" 


Remember when the European Stress Test round 2 was supposed to be "credible" and restore "confidence", this time for realz? Well, as Reuters reports, "A second round of data gathering is needed for the European Union's health check of banks because of "errors" and "unrealistic assumptions", the European Banking Authority said on Wednesday. Arising from the peer review and quality assurance process, the EBA is currently assessing and challenging the first round of results from individual banks," the EBA said. "This will mean that another round of data will be required from banks. Errors will have to be rectified and amendments made where there are inconsistencies or unrealistic assumptions."  Data from the second round won't be received until mid to late June -- the time when the EBA had indicated it would publish the results of the test. What else could one expect from a continent which is run by a bureaucrat who has openly admitted he lies to prevent a crash in the EURUSD.  Plus really: who gives a flying fornication? At this point nobody, and we mean nobody, believes that any bank in Europe is even remotely not bankrupt. It is time for the kleptocrats to actually save the taxpayers some money and just pull the whole farce.




Guest Post: Greece, Please Do The Right Thing: Default Now 


If you think this through, there is only one ethical thing for the maiden to do: toss the spiked sugary drink in the face of the predator and deliver a swift, hard kick between his legs "where it counts." Greece should respond to this planned predation with complete and total default: not a "haircut" or "extended terms," a complete and total refusal to pay any of the debt. We are constantly warned that the resulting collapse of the "too big to fail" banks would trigger a global implosion. That is false; life would go on after the predators declared bankruptcy and were liquidated. What the predators fear most is an awareness that any disruption in normal life would be brief and relatively painless compared to the vast suffering imposed to render them their pound of flesh. 

Timberrrrr: Manufacturing ISM At Lowest Since September 2009 



Yesterday we had the biggest monthly drop in the Chicago PMI since the Lehman collapse. Today, the Lehman bankruptcy is invoked again, after the critical ISM Manufacturing index plunges to 53.5, far below expectations of 57.1, and from 60.4 previously: this is the lowest number since September 2009. At this level of "growth" stall , the US economy will be in an official contraction (Sub 50) next month. From the report: "The PMI registered 53.5 percent and indicates expansion in the manufacturing sector for the 22nd consecutive month. This month's index, however, registered 6.9 percentage points below the April reading of 60.4 percent, and is the first reading below 60 percent for 2011, as well as the lowest PMI reported for the past 12 months. Slower growth in new orders and production are the primary contributors to this month's lower PMI reading. Manufacturing employment continues to show good momentum for the year, as the Employment Index registered 58.2 percent, which is 4.5 percentage points lower than the 62.7 percent reported in April. Manufacturers continue to experience significant cost pressures from commodities and other inputs." Surprisingly, inventories declined from 53.6 to 48.7, refuting yesterday's PMI data. The only good news: Prices Paid dropped from 85.5 to 76.5. Too bad it is taking more than 15 minutes. Next up: Goldman to (i) lower NFP to 125,000 and (ii) H2 GDP to under 3%.




150 Economists Sign Letter Against Increase Of US Debt; Spoiler Alert - Paul Krugman Is Not Among Them 


Following last night's largely irrelevant and extremely theatrical vote for a clean debt ceiling hike, this morning 150 economists (of which those belonging to Ivy League institutions can be counted on one finger... the middle one) have signed a letter warning that "a debt limit increase without spending cuts and budget reform will destroy American jobs." Luckily, since a clean debt ceiling hike will have no impact on the BLS birth/death model, there is no reason to bother Paul Krugman with the fact that ever more of his peers think that those calling for endless fiscal largesse are now a part of the problem, and not the solution. From the letter: "An increase in the national debt limit that is not accompanied by significant spending cuts and budget reforms to address our government’s spending addiction will harm private- sector job creation in America. It is critical that any debt limit legislation enacted by Congress include spending cuts and reforms that are greater than the accompanying increase in debt authority being granted to the president. We will not succeed in balancing the federal budget and overcoming the challenges of our debt until we succeed in committing ourselves to government policies that allow our economy to grow. An increase in the national debt limit that is not accompanied by significant spending cuts and budget reforms would harm private-sector job growth and represent a tremendous setback in the effort to deal with our national debt." The full list of signatories is below. Among them are Nobel prize winner and Euro scourge Robert Mundell, John Taylor, Alan Meltzer, Douglas Holtz-Eakin, as well as former U.S. Secretary of State George P. Shultz, and many more. Suddenly the idea of buying US CDS does not seem so outlandish. 

The Thundering Herd Of Wall Street Lemmings Begins To Move: NFP Forecast Cuts Galore 


And so the thunderous herd of highly overpaid and always wildly inaccurate Wall Street lemmings better known as "economists" starts moving. Yesterday it was that paragon of the 0.000 batting average Joe LaVorgna who cut his NFP forecast from 300,000 to 225,000 (a number we expect will be cut to about 155,000 today, or indicative that little Joey was off by about 100% as usual), and today Morgan Stanley has already fired the reactionary salvo, trimming its NFP forecast for this Friday's number from 175,000, accompanied by Credit Suisse which cuts from 185,000 to 120,000. And these lemmings are paid 7 digit salaries why again? So far the most resilient is Goldman's Jan Hatzius, who just threw up all over the ADP number, but has so far refused to cut his NFP prediction of 150,000. We give him at most 48 hours before he does following today's upcoming abysmal CPI number. 

IMF Nearly Certainly Won't Pay Share of Fifth Tranche of Aid for Greece: German Paper Report (click for story) 

 

Ahead Of Tomorrow's ISM Plunge 



May surveys had the largest ‘negative surprise’ since Bloomberg started tracking consensus estimates in 1998. In addition, several of the reports have shown some of the largest two and three month rates of decline on record. Whether this is indicative of a mid-cycle slowdown, or something more serious, a continuation of the recent deterioration could well set the table for QE3... Oh, and tomorrow's ISM will likely be a bloodbath, which in continuation of today's bizarro market (and world) will mean the S&P closes at least 2% higher.



And Scene: CME LOWERS ES, SP, YM Margins, Despite An INCREASE In Realized Vol 


Speechless. Just.... speechless.



Big Trouble In Little Goldman's VPN Firewall (Or NYT's Editorial Department)? 


This evening's latest NYT Story-Morgenson Joint Venture story about Goldman beats a well-beaten drum: the question, which has been discussed extensively on Zero Hedge and elsewhere before, of just how ridiculous and ludicrous is the notion, used by Goldman in both Congress and before the SEC, that Fabrice Tourre, then a midlevel 28 year old whose story has been told millions of times, worked completely and entirely alone when perpetrating the Abacus CDO "transgression" (for which Goldman neither admitted nor denied guilt). Obviously this is such BS that nobody but an entity as entitled (and for the implications of perceived infinite self-entitlement look no further than DSK or David Sokol) as Goldman (and hence the SEC which needs Goldman for future employment prospects) could possibly believe it. There is however, a link in the story that is so weak, that it raises extensive questions about either the credibility of the entire narrative, or the complete worthlessness of Goldman's IT security and VPN firewall, two possibilities that demand further inquiry.



Guest Post: EU - A Flawed Foundation, But Brilliant Strategy? 



The European banks are slowly but surely, through a tactic of Financial Arbitrage, moving more and more sovereign debt to the ECB and EU. Someone must pay for this debt and that will eventually be the entire European taxpayer base. That is the goal. In the initial stages of the Euro dream everyone was benefiting. Like an initial user of drugs the early stage is euphoric before the issues associated with the addiction surface. This stage fostered tremendous growth in debt - never ending Corniche housing villas in Spain and Portugal, embarrassing pensions and social benefits in Greece, tax advantages for off shoring corporations in Ireland or unjustifiable and hidden local government spending in Italy. It has been a captive market for the Asian Mercantile Strategy and a financial retail market boon for US financial instruments created from the never ending supply of freshly minted US fiat paper...Be aware that the mercantile financiers are so opposed to risk that operating as the secured bond holders of the banks they make the profit from the banks - not the shareholders. The financiers get first distribution of profits and are always kept whole. The public typically attacks the bank owners, not those who insidiously control and profit from its operations - the senior secured bond holders. It is the senior secured bond holders who must take the Greek 'haircut' but as part of the strategy they have their political mouthpieces vehemently opposing it...Forcing the Greeks to sell all that's left of the family jewels is now seen as a key part of the political solution. But who will want to buy them when there is every possibility of Greece leaving the euro? Capital is already fleeing Greece as fast as it can; what's the chance of attracting it for Greek assets? Someone is going to get real fire sale prices.



Arensberg sees life in CDNX; Rule elaborates on silver shortage



If Keynesian economics worked, this would be a perfect world

 

 

The Canadian Dollar is No Haven from a US Dollar Collapse
By: Jeff Berwick – The Dollar Vigilante


Gold signaling hyperinflation?

 

Ireland may need more EU/IMF cash



The Aden Sisters on Money Metals, Where the Market Is Headed and Why Gold Is Going Up



Incredible shrinking food packages Don't be fooled by size. Shop wisely and check per-unit 






Protests against Canadian silver mine continue in Peru