Tuesday, February 1, 2011

Mubarak to Say He Won't Run for New Term: Al Arabiya TV (Click for Story)


Follow Egypt's Big Day As Millions Take To The Streets

For Egypt, it is now or never. With millions out on the streets in Cairo and other cities, the Egyptian population will likely not have another chance at such a massive showing of popular expression of anger against President Mubarak. For those who wish to follow today's million man march, can do so at the usual places: the Al Jazeera blog, the video feed below, the Guardian blog, real time mappable tweets, and of course, the video feed below.

Presenting The Treasury's Options To Continue Pretending The US Is Solvent

The United States Is No Longer A Triple-A, I Would Say A Maximum Triple-C.
posted by Admin at Marc Faber Blog - 3 hours ago
*"The financial condition of the United States is in my opinion quite dire. … The U.S. is no longer triple-A. I would say a maximum triple-C."* - in courant.com *Related ETFs: ProShares UltraShort 20+ Yea...

posted by Admin at Jim Rogers Blog - 3 hours ago
*"Paper money is made of cotton, and I'm long cotton, by the way. One reason I'm long cotton is because Dr. Bernanke is out there running the printing presses as fast as he can."* - in Business Week *Jim ...

Morning Gold Fixing: Geopolitical Instability In Middle East - Gold Today Like Gold In The 1970s?


Jordan King Abdullah Dismisses Government, Appoints New Prime Minister


Guest Post: The Road to Madness Is Paved With $100 Bills 


GM Parks 510,000 Cars With Dealers, 31% Higher Than Year Earlier

One more month, one more chance for GM to stuff its dealers with cars. Sure enough, in the just release January sales PR, the company announced that "General Motors dealers in the United States reported 178,896 total sales in January, a 23-percent increase from a year ago for the company’s four brands. The gain was driven by solid retail sales which were 36 percent higher than a strong January a year ago." And behind the scenes, GM has continued to shove a whopping 510,000 cars with dealers: In January 2011, the firm had 510k cars at its dealers, compared to just 390,000 in January 2010, a 30% increase. Furthermore, as the only component of consumer credit that is surging, non-revolving loans, indicates that virtually all car purchases are made based on the old formula of "no money down." And with the government backstopping both the car maker and the lender banks, we would be very interested in discovering just how bad the delinquency rate in non-revolving car debt is over the past year, especially as it relates to GM.

Posted: Feb 01 2011     By: Jim Sinclair      Post Edited: February 1, 2011 at 12:33 am
Filed under: General Editorial
Dear CIGAs,
"One should not increase, beyond what is necessary, the number of entities required to explain anything"
Occam’s razor is a logical principle attributed to the mediaeval philosopher William of Occam (or Ockham). The principle states that one should not make more assumptions than the minimum needed. This principle is often called the principle of parsimony. It underlies all scientific modelling and theory building. It admonishes us to choose from a set of otherwise equivalent models of a given phenomenon the simplest one. In any given model, Occam’s razor helps us to "shave off" those concepts, variables or constructs that are not really needed to explain the phenomenon. By doing that, developing the model will become much easier, and there is less chance of introducing inconsistencies, ambiguities and redundancies.
Using William of Ockham’s method for analysis of the gold price reaction, the following has occurred.
1. $1400 was an embarrassment to the thesis of "Inflation under control."
2. Gold bank hard price blocking drew a top formation but one that will NOT put a long term top on gold.
3. A crazy hedge fund kid got caught in an underfunded spread.
4. The crazy kid got it backwards either on the spread itself or by using is as a trading position.
5. The liquidation of the spread put more longs into the market than shorts covered.
6. The formation created by the $1400 block broke down as product of the spread trader’s failures.
7. Algos tripped off the selling and now are trading gold from the bear side. Algos have no intellect; they are mathematic soul-less driven machines.
Occam’s Razor applied to #1 through #7 summates that the entire gold situation can be addressed as "Technical Damage Requires Technical Repair” before it is off to the races again.

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