Monday, February 7, 2011

Harvey Organ 2-7-11

Silver in backwardation/JPMorgan now accepts gold as collateral but not ETF's

 

Banks covering silver shorts fast; GLD said targeted for draining

 

Morgan will take gold pledged against any crappy paper

 

Ratigan And Fleckenstein Explain The Fed's Role In Recent Food Price Ignited Revolutions



For over a year now, Zero Hedge has been predicting that in its foolhardy attempt of "inflation or bust", the Fed's actions would sooner or later lead to mass rioting and possible revolutions as a result of surging and out of control food prices (which are just the peak of the alternative investment pyramid - yes, stunningly free money can go into other things besides stocks). There have been those who have claimed that deflation is still a far greater force, despite that the all important shadow banking system made a positive inflection point in ending deleveraging in Q3 (and on March 10 we will know whether the Q3 strength persisted into Q4) as was discussed previously, and today's first time in over two years increase in revolving credit merely confirms this view. Alas, to all who believe that deflation or deleveraging is a greater threat: you have our sympathies, as fundamentally your are correct, and were the business cycle have the benefit of playing out in normal course, all the world's banks would become insolvent and yes, deflation would be rampaging. The problem is that these same people do not realize that to Bernanke (whom we have referred Genocide Ben for precisely this reason) there is no other alternative, and inflation must be achieved no matter how terrible the social cost, or the damage to the monetary system. Regardless, the actions in North Africa are just the start. Commodities will run up far higher, and discontent will sooner or later reach to Asia, and possibly to countries which have nuclear arsenals at their disposal. What happens then is anyone guess. Yet for anyone who is still confused about the ultimate Fed agenda, Dylan Ratigan and Bill Fleckenstein sat down late last week to make it so clear that virtually anyone and everyone can understand what the Bernanke endgame is.



Time Lapse Interactive Video Of Global Debt: 1870 - 2010



Ever wanted to run a Sid Meyer Civilization end of game recap scenario on the world and see which country, region or continent had built up the most debt the fastest? Or, far simpler, just to watch a time lapse video of total debt/GDP by country or by region? The IMF now allows you to do both. The international monetary organization has released a Data Mapper tool which not only shows a snapshot map chart of instantaneous sovereign leverage at any given moment, but also shows just how global debt levels have changed through the ages. Of particular note is total debt/GDP at advanced countries in the post-WW1, Great Depression and WW2 period. And while back then the result was either hyperinflation (Weimar) or various stages of removal of the gold standard (until all currencies became freely floating under Nixon), we now no longer have the option of a relative devaluation, and the only chance left for a world levered to its gills is either absolute revaluation of a brick of gold, accelerating, rampant inflation or outright default. Have fun playing with the drilldown function. 
 
 
 

After Losing Control Of The Long-End, Will Vigilantes Push Bernanke To Act On The Short-End?

 

Jim Sinclair’s Commentary
The following chart is of the USA’s economic recovery. The only thing recovering is economist bliss due to the Dow 12000 happy pills.
The fact that equities are being pushed by the same mechanism, QE, that pushes gold is lost on them.
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Posted: Feb 07 2011     By: Jim Sinclair      Post Edited: February 7, 2011 at 1:50 pm
Filed under: Jim's Mailbox

Gentlemen,
Looking at the long term long bond interest rate chart, I wanted to bring to your attention some salient features. This may be the beginning of the end of the long bond bull market in interest rates. This chart is presenting some nice time/price moves along its length/height. Of particular interest is the possibility of the ending arc to be brought into play at some time in the future with arc A equalling arc B. Arc B has a value of “pi,” so, there’s likely a high resistance around that arc.
TYX is coming back into balance with the summer 2008 highs. We shall have our answer this week if price can close above the upper trendline. It’s nicely anchored into the pattern as annotated. A monthly close above it will seal the deal leading to a target above the measured move time / price target of 50.5, likely arc B.
It will be interesting to watch the FED response at this point in time, as they are aware of the ramifications if they loose control of the long end of the yield curve.
Best regards to all,
CIGA Tim
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Dear CIGAs,
You will be interested in seeing this agenda.
Regards,
CIGA Pedro

Is the IMF encouraging central banks to buy Gold?
9:00 a.m.–10:30 a.m. Session I—Gold and Inflation Hedging
This session discusses the role of gold and inflation-indexed securities vs. short- duration assets to protect against inflation in a diversified portfolio.
• What are the benefits of holding gold in a diversified portfolio? To which extent can gold offset the risk of holding longer maturity bonds?
Click here to read the full PDF…



Posted: Feb 07 2011     By: Dan Norcini      Post Edited: February 7, 2011 at 1:56 pm
Filed under: Trader Dan Norcini

Dear CIGAs,
Click chart to enlarge today’s hourly action in Gold in PDF format with commentary from Trader Dan Norcini
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