Silver Set For All Time Record Quarterly Close - Gold To Silver Ratio On Way To 17 To 1 As Per 1980?

Submitted by Tyler Durden on 03/31/2011 07:27 -0400

‘Poor man’s gold’ is set for a record nominal quarterly close which will be bullish technically and set silver up to target psychological resistance at $40/oz and then the nominal high of $50.35/oz . Silver’s record quarterly close was $32.20/oz on December 31st, 1979. While silver is up 22 percent this year and is heading for a ninth straight quarterly advance, its fundamentals remain very sound. With gold above its nominal record of 1980, poor man’s gold continues to be seen as offering better value. To the masses in India, China and Asia, silver is the cheap alternative to gold and an attractive store of value and hedge against inflation and debasement of paper currencies. Increasing global investment and industrial demand in the very small and finite silver bullion market is a recipe for higher prices. Thus, as we have long asserted the gold silver ratio is likely to revert to its long term average of 16 to 1. A return to a ratio of 16 to 1 is likely due to basic supply and demand and the geological fact that there are 16 parts of silver for every one part of gold in the earth’s crust. 

 

 

 

Broker Talk: "Very Large Selling In All European Bonds: Spain, Italy, France"

Submitted by Tyler Durden on 03/31/2011 08:46 -0400

Remember when we said March would be the cruellest month for Europe? Looks like someone did, at least on a NPV basis, and is now preparing for the next phase of the European Crisis. According to Newedge, there is very large selling on dealer screens in "all kinds of bonds: Spain, Italy, and France." It seems at least one trader is not waiting around to see what the Irish stress test results indicate, and the expectation is that, as Bloomberg noted earlier, bondholder haircuts will be fast and furious.
Today should be fun.

Initial Claims 388K, Miss Expectations, Previous Revised Naturally Higher To 394K, Would Have Missed Too

Submitted by Tyler Durden on 03/31/2011 08:31 -0400

And so we find that last week's surprising beat was actually a miss as is this week's, which came at 388K on expectations of 380K, last week revised from 382K to 394K. Snow not blamed as this number sets a big question mark on tomorrow's NFP number. Continuing claims last week was also revised higher from 3,721K to 3,765K, with this week missing expectations (3,705K) as well at 3,714K. And the 99 week cliff is impacting more and more as persons claiming benefits on all programs, including EUC and Extended Benefits, increased by just 4,372. A US Labour spokesman says nothing unusual in last week's claims, and revisions showed mild upward shift. 

 

 

 

 

Japanese Economic Collapse Confirmed By PMI Plunge From 52.9 To 46.4, Largest Drop Ever

Submitted by Tyler Durden on 03/31/2011 08:08 -0400

In the first economic metric since the Japanese earthquake struck, Japanese manufacturing activity slumped to a two-year low in March and posted its steepest monthly decline on record, confirming all the worst fears about supply chain disruptions and production operations, according to the Japanese PMI released on Thursday. From Need to Know News: "The 6.5-point drop in March was the largest on record, surpassing the falls seen after the collapse of Lehman Brothers in September 2008 and the U.S. terror attacks in September 2001, MarkIt Economics said, adding that the March PMI index was the lowest since 41.4 marked in April 2009. Kohei Okazaki, economist at Nomura Securities, said March industrial output due out on Apr. 28 is expected to show a m/m fall of at least 10%. The PMI index is closely correlated to industrial output released by the Ministry of Economy, Trade and Industry. Markit, a UK-based research firm, conducted the latest survey between March 11 and March 25, and only 67% of those polled responded. It releases manufactures PMIs for 25 areas in the world every month." And in addition to all the collapse in all output metrics, adding insult to injury is the confirmation that inflation is now ravaging the land: the input price index increased to 65.2, the highest since September 2008, due to higher costs of raw materials such as crude oil and naphtha. It now appears that Japan is about to have the worst stagflationary episode in its history ever. 

 

 

 

One Minute Macro Update: Irish Banks Might Need Some Luck

Submitted by Tyler Durden on 03/31/2011 07:56 -0400

Markets mostly negative this morning in anticipation of early results from Ireland’s bank stress tests and an announcement from Portugal’s president. Compelled by lawsuits emerging from the Freedom of Information Act, today the Fed will release details about its discount window lending activities during the recent financial crisis. The Fed announced yesterday that it will auction $5B in 28 day term deposits next Monday in an attempt to reverse the liquidity injected into the economy during the 2008 crisis. Early Irish bank stress test results began leaking yesterday afternoon, but will formally be announced later today. The Irish government will need to take up the slack in banks’ capital needs, which may translate to further Euro zone aid or bondholder hits. ECB’s Weber reportedly said that creditors may be sharing the burden on bank losses. The Irish government is also contemplating a merger between two of its biggest banks as a restructuring tool. The latest nuclear news out of Japan highlights the possibility of chain reactions from the Fukushima power plant. The Nomura PMI showed Japan’s first post-earthquake manufacturing figures with a sharp drop to 46.4 v 52.9 prior, the first contraction since last October (a score of 50 indicates no growth) 

 

 

 

European Inflation Comes At 29 Month High Of 2.6%, Well Above Expectations, Sends EURUSD Above 1.42

Submitted by Tyler Durden on 03/31/2011 07:21 -0400

Earlier Eurostat released its February European CPI number which was higher than January (2.4%) and consensus (2.4%), coming at 2.6%. That is the fastest inflation growth in more than two years in March as European Central Bank policy makers prepared to raise interest rates to fight increasing price pressures.Per Bloomberg: "Inflation in the 17-nation euro region quickened to 2.6 percent from 2.4 percent in February, the European Union’s statistics office in Luxembourg said today in an initial estimate. That’s the fastest since October 2008 and exceeds the ECB’s 2 percent limit for a fourth month. Economists forecast inflation to hold at 2.4 percent, the median of 32 estimates in a Bloomberg News survey showed." The primary reason for the jump in inflation are energy costs, leading to such paradoxes as $9/gallon gasoline, as Europe is far more expose to Brent prices than the US which has spiked this year: "Crude oil prices have surged 15 percent this year as output from Libya slumped. An armed conflict between Libyan leader Muammar Qaddafi’s troops and rebel forces has forced companies including Total SA and ConocoPhillips to suspend operations and evacuate staff. Crude was trading at $105.30 a barrel today." The result of the release was a kneejerk jump in the EURUSD to 1.423 as a modest hike by the ECB seems now virtually assured. Of course, a hike in rates means that the already cooling Economy will deteriorate even more. What that means for a continent that is now harboring increasingly more insolvent nations only Trichet (and Bernanke) knows.

Europe About To Be Hung Out To Dry (Liquidity Wise)?

Submitted by Tyler Durden on 03/31/2011 08:55 -0400

Two rather unpleasant headlines for the Old World from Reuters:

• There has been disagreement in ECB governing council over new liquidity facility
• ECB will not announce plans for a new liquidity facility to help Irish banks on Thursday

EURUSD has now erased all of the CPI-beat gains. Bond selling picking up.

In The News Today

Posted: Mar 30 2011     By: Jim Sinclair      Post Edited: March 30, 2011 at 11:23 pm
Filed under: In The News

"…There is no nation on earth powerful enough to accomplish our overthrow. … Our destruction, should it come at all, will be from another quarter. From the inattention of the people to the concerns of their government, from their carelessness and negligence, I must confess that I do apprehend some danger. I fear that they may place too implicit a confidence in their public servants, and fail properly to scrutinize their conduct; that in this way they may be made the dupes of designing men, and become the instruments of their own undoing." –Daniel Webster, June 1, 1837


My Dear Friends,
Truth be told, the major theme of JSMineset has been one of self reliance in a monetary, physical and Emersonian sense. Our focus has been on your assets, your debt positions, legal matters and investment.
I have, with my dear friends here at JSMineset, tried to share what we know with you. We also pride ourselves in that we not only talk the talk, but also walk the walk.
Has Trader Dan not moved from Houston to an undisclosed location in Idaho? I am writing to you from a farm in North Western Connecticut, a rural part of the state. We provide our own water, can provide our own power, have a radio system fallback for communication, satellite phones, furnaces that burn coal or oil, an indoor pistol range that can take up to .50 calibre cartridges into a Detroit bullet trap, perimeter lighting, 16 camera day and night camera security and much more.
We have focused on conservative financial structures which were in truth taking you into the position of being your own central bank.
I have received from many people on my 70th birthday greetings plus small letters telling me how they have benefited from this link. Let me mention but two. A lady in the minerals industry lost her job and is the mother of two children and only bread winner in the house. She had very little money, but saved up a nest egg. She admits she did speculate but used the Angels. She now has $2,000,000 and has finished her period of speculation.
Chris from Canada told me that his portfolio, now mostly fully paid gold and silver, is worth $5,000,000. It was nowhere near that when he started.
Every effort here was to make you your own central bank which resulted in financial self reliance for many.
There is one more step that you really need to consider. The housing market is in a black hole from which it very well might not recover for generations. Land is cheap. When homes or small farms have been foreclosed on, resulting in bank owned property, they are sold in a fire sale to buyers with cash in hand.
Do as I have done. Do as Trader Dan has done.
The pictures below are on my maple syrup operations and my build it yourself greenhouse. The vegetables for my garden are already sprouting. I have fruit trees and am adding mature nut trees.
I strongly suggest that if you have benefitted from JSMineset, as many of you have, consider buying yourself a hobby farm and seriously go for the exercise of self reliance. I am certain that if even to cut costs you are going to need it.
The financial system is screwed up beyond any repair. On top of that there is no desire to repair anything because the wise guys know it is impossible. It is the world that the flushing of Lehman Bros. has created. It is not a brave new world. It is more like an audition for a world of Mad Max and the Day After.
It does not matter whether or not there is more QE. The damage is done and there is no solution.
Earth shaking events are taking place in the Middle East that the media would have you believe is a spontaneous outburst of democracy. Like hell it is. It is a move from some sort of rule, like it or not, to chaos.
Now that you are financially in good shape, please get physically self reliant.
Regards,
Jim



Wow That Was Fast! Libyan Rebels Have Already Established A New Central Bank Of Libya

 

 

Food Inflation Kept Hidden in Tinier Bags. “As an expected increase in the cost of raw materials looms for late summer, consumers are beginning to encounter shrinking food packages.”

 

 

 

Nine Ways to Prepare for Food Inflation

 

 

 

Gerald Celente & Lew Rockwell:  Gold, Guns and Getaway Plans   



Salivating at the Upside Potential of the Gold Market   



15 Indications that Bad Times Are About to Hit the U.S. Economy   

Roller coaster ride for silver and gold/Dimon (JPMorgan CEO) slams CFTC

Harvey Organ, Wednesday, March 30 2011

Roller coaster ride for silver and gold/Dimon (JPMorgan CEO) slams CFTC

 

Did Jim just go kamikazee on the JDime of the JPMorgue and reco physical silver?

 

Jim’s Mailbox

Posted: Mar 29 2011     By: Jim Sinclair      Post Edited: March 30, 2011 at 3:53 am
Filed under: Jim's Mailbox


"Yes , we did produce a near perfect Republic, but will they keep it? Or will they in their enjoyment of plenty, lose the memory of their freedom? Material abundance without character is the surest way to destruction. Indeed, I tremble for my country when I reflect that God is just."
–Thomas Jefferson

 

Don’t Believe the Chart, the US Dollar is Dropping Like a Stone

Jamie Dimon “I Wouldn’t Panic About What I’m About To Say..."

Submitted by Tyler Durden on 03/30/2011 14:41 -0400

Reports Bloomberg: "JPMorgan Chase & Co. (JPM) Chief Executive Officer Jamie Dimon said some municipalities will need to renegotiate their debt and that hundreds of them may “not make it.” “I wouldn’t panic about what I’m about to say,” he said today at a U.S. Chamber of Commerce event in Washington. “You’re going to see some municipalities not make it. I don’t think it’s going to shatter America, I just think it’s a part of the credit cycle." Precisely: and it is precisely the part that JP Morgan comes in and offers sale leaseback offers to said munis, and other ingenious financial solutions that see munis selling their assets to the bank which after the Fed, has the biggest balance sheet, and can thus offer to engage in some even more creative asset-liability mismatch. Also explains why unlike Meredith, Jamie will not only not be asked to come in and testify to congress over his abrasive observations of an insolvent American reality, but will be lauded as a hero as he will provide funding to buy insolvent municipalities a year or two of time, which upon expiration will see Jamie end up with even more assets formerly belong to taxpayers, but by then everyone in the current District of Corruption cadre will be long gone with their part of the spoils. And so the "credit cycle" turns.

"Skunked": Bill Gross On How "The U.S. Will Likely Default On Its Debt"

Submitted by Tyler Durden on 03/30/2011 19:26 -0400

In a letter focusing on what has been well known to Zero Hedge readers for about two years now, Bill Gross' latest investment outlook does the usual attack of Beltway stupidity (as if Congress is in any way competent of making math-related decisions - they do what Wall Street - that's you Bill! - tell them to do, and you know it), emphasizing the impossible math of total US entitlement liabilities (on a net present value basis), which Gross estimates at $75 trillion. That Gross conclusion is predetermined from the onset is not surprising: "Unless entitlements are substantially reformed, I am confident that this country will default on its debt; not in conventional ways, but by picking the pocket of savers via a combination of less observable, yet historically verifiable policies – inflation, currency devaluation and low to negative real interest rates." Then again, that America is bankrupt is not really news to anyone. Neither is it news, that Gross, as we first reported, no longer has any US bonds to dispose of. What will be news is the inflection point at which Gross starts purchasing Treasuries once again. And after all with $220 billion in AUM in the Total Return Fund, what else will he do: hold on to cash? Buy Netflix? Then the only question will be how Gross spins the inevitable capitulation of the re-hypocrisy trade, validating that he, in a narrow sense, and PIMCO in a broad one, is perhaps the biggest cog in the very system that Bill spends so many hours writing letters about and complaining against. But yes, even that won't be all that surprising to us. After all, in this bizarro world absolutely everything is now priced in.

Japan Prepares To "Bury The Problem" Following News Of Uncontrolled Reactor 1 Chain Reactions

Submitted by Tyler Durden on 03/30/2011 18:19 -0400

And once again our prediction about Fukushima (namely the inevitable entombment of the entire facility in thousands of tons of concrete) is about to be realized. Bloomberg reports that Japan will consider pouring concrete into its crippled Fukushima atomic plant to reduce radiation and contain the worst nuclear disaster in 25 years. The reason for the admission of total defeat is the gradual comprehension that the worst case scenario has come to pass: "The risk to workers might be greater than previously thought because melted fuel in the No. 1 reactor building may be causing isolated, uncontrolled nuclear chain reactions, Denis Flory, nuclear safety director for the International Atomic Energy Agency, said at a press conference in Vienna." Not one to cover up the worst case outcome for a week, TEPCO only did so... for five days: "Radioactive chlorine found March 25 in the Unit 1 turbine building suggests chain reactions continued after the reactor shut down, physicist Ferenc Dalnoki-Veress of the James Martin Center for Nonproliferation Studies in Monterey, California, wrote in a March 28 paper." It's good thought"  Radioactive chlorine has a half-life of 37 minutes, according to the report." It appears Japan is willing to give up, and write off a several hundred square kilometer area, as nobody in their right mind will ever agree to move in next to a territory that, contrary to lies, er, promises, will not seep radioactivity in the soil and in the water. This is an unprecedented admission of defeat by the Japanese which unfortunately may be the only solution, which will certainly have major implications for the Japanese economy.

In The News Today

Posted: Mar 30 2011     By: Jim Sinclair      Post Edited: March 30, 2011 at 6:14 pm
Filed under: In The News

My Dear Friends,

Truth be told, the major theme of JSMineset has been one of self reliance in a monetary, physical and Emersonian sense. Our focus has been on your assets, your debt positions, legal matters and investment.
I have, with my dear friends here at JSMineset, tried to share what we know with you. We also pride ourselves in that we not only talk the talk, but also walk the walk.
Has Trader Dan not moved from Houston to an undisclosed location in Idaho? I am writing to you from a farm in North Western Connecticut, a rural part of the state. We provide our own water, can provide our own power, have a radio system fallback for communication, satellite phones, furnaces that burn coal or oil, an indoor pistol range that can take up to .50 calibre cartridges into a Detroit bullet trap, perimeter lighting, 16 camera day and night camera security and much more.
We have focused on conservative financial structures which were in truth taking you into the position of being your own central bank.
I have received from many people on my 70th birthday greetings plus small letters telling me how they have benefited from this link. Let me mention but two. A lady in the minerals industry lost her job and is the mother of two children and only bread winner in the house. She had very little money, but saved up a nest egg. She admits she did speculate but used the Angels. She now has $2,000,000 and has finished her period of speculation.
Chris from Canada told me that his portfolio, now mostly fully paid gold and silver, is worth $5,000,000. It was nowhere near that when he started.
Every effort here was to make you your own central bank which resulted in financial self reliance for many.
There is one more step that you really need to consider. The housing market is in a black hole from which it very well might not recover for generations. Land is cheap. When homes or small farms have been foreclosed on, resulting in bank owned property, they are sold in a fire sale to buyers with cash in hand.
Do as I have done. Do as Trader Dan has done.
The pictures below are on my maple syrup operations and my build it yourself greenhouse. The vegetables for my garden are already sprouting. I have fruit trees and am adding mature nut trees.
I strongly suggest that if you have benefitted from JSMineset, as many of you have, consider buying yourself a hobby farm and seriously go for the exercise of self reliance. I am certain that if even to cut costs you are going to need it.
The financial system is screwed up beyond any repair. On top of that there is no desire to repair anything because the wise guys know it is impossible. It is the world that the flushing of Lehman Bros. has created. It is not a brave new world. It is more like an audition for a world of Mad Max and the Day After.
It does not matter whether or not there is more QE. The damage is done and there is no solution.
Earth shaking events are taking place in the Middle East that the media would have you believe is a spontaneous outburst of democracy. Like hell it is. It is a move from some sort of rule, like it or not, to chaos.
Now that you are financially in good shape, please get physically self reliant.

Regards,
Jim

Treasury Sells $29 Billion In Bonds, Bringing Total Settled US Debt To 14.311 Trillion, More Than The Debt Ceiling

Submitted by Tyler Durden on 03/30/2011 13:25

First, the irrelevant news: Today's $29 billion 7 Year auction just closed at a yield of 2.895%, the highest since April 2010, just the time when QE1 was ending and everyone was certain there would be no follow through monetization. The Bid To Cover was 2.79, weaker compared to recent auctions, and 2 bps wider of the When Issued, implying the auction was not all that hot. Directs took down 8.76%, in line with the last year average, Indirects accounts for 49.41%, or the lowest foreign take down since November 2010, while PDs bought 41.83% of the auction. Altogether a weak auction. And now the relevant news: the most recently disclosed total debt was 14,211,567,662,931.23 as of March 28. This excludes the settlement of all of this week's auctions which amount to $35 + $35 + $29 billion (including today) or $99 billion. Adding the two amounts to $14,310,567,662,931.23. As a reminder the debt ceiling is $14,294,000,000,000.00. In other words, the total US debt just passed the debt limit - break out the Champagne! Now bear with us for a second: the most recently disclosued total debt was 14,211,567,662,931.23 as of March 28. This excludes the settlement of all of this week's auctions which amount to $35 + $35 + $29 billion (including today) or $99 billion. Adding the two amounts to $14,310,567,662,931.23. As a reminder the debt ceiling is $14,294,000,000,000.00. In other words, the total US debt just passed the debt limit - break out the Champagne! 

 

 

 

Hoenig Says Lower And Middle Classes Pay "Dear Price" For Fed Mistakes, Accuses Fed Of Commodity Price Inflation

Submitted by Tyler Durden on 03/30/2011 13:50 -0400
Hoenig is back, and a few months before his retirement, has released what appears a valedictory exercise in venomous truthiness: "Today, my view has not changed. The FOMC should gradually allow its $3 trillion balance sheet to shrink toward its pre-crisis level of $1 trillion. It should move the U.S. federal funds rate off of zero and toward 1 percent within a fairly short period of time. Then, after evaluating the effects of those actions, it should be prepared to move the funds rate further toward a level that could be reasonably judged as closer to normal and sustainable." At long last, someone admits the obvious: "While some of the increase may reflect global supply and demand conditions, at least some of the increase is driven by highly accommodative monetary policies in the United States and other economies." For those terrified by the ravages of deflation: "I tracked the average growth of money and the price levels in the United States from the 19th century to the present (Chart 3). It should surprise no one that there is a striking parallel between the long-run growth of money and the growth in the price-level index. From the end of World War II alone, the price index has increased by a factor of ten. With such a track record, it is hard to accept that deflation should be the world’s dominant concern." And lastly, for those who refuse to see Bernanke's policies as genocidal (metaphorically speaking but quite literally in MENA) to the lower (and increasingly) middle classes: "Central bankers must look to the long run. If current policy remains in place, we almost certainly will stimulate the growth of asset values and inflation. This may temporarily increase GDP and employment, but in the long run, we risk instability, damaging inflation and lost jobs, which is a dear price for middle and lower income citizens to pay."

Third Largest Producer Of Silver Says Production Is Now "Totally Paralyzed" Following Week-Long Strike

Submitted by Tyler Durden on 03/30/2011 11:54 -0400

In news that should move the precious metals market, we learn that the world's third largest producer of silver (as well as zinc and lead) has announced its production is now totally paralyzed. From Reuters: "A week-old strike at Bolivia's San Cristobal mine has totally paralyzed production and exports of silver, zinc and lead, a union leader said on Wednesday. San Cristobal is the world's third-largest producer of silver and the sixth-largest producer of zinc, according to Japan's Sumitomo Corp, which owns the mine." For those who recall basic central planning economics this means that silver should plunge immediately, and should react even more adversely on news that crude supplies in the US are surging. After all, oil supply demand is far more critical to silver price discovery than the actual supply of a metal that unlike gold, is used in various industrial and peacebringing applications (see Operation Odyssey Dawn).

Third Government Set To Fall In A Week: Kuwait Cabinet Expected To Resign On Thursday "Over Questioning"

Submitted by Tyler Durden on 03/30/2011 12:22 -0400

Following the fall of the Portuguese and Canadian governments (and don't get us started on Belgium), here comes the latest entrant to the anarchy club. Kuwait's cabinet is expected to resign on Thursday after lawmakers asked to question three ministers, parliamentary sources said on Wednesday. More from Reuters: "The sources said that the cabinet was set to submit its resignation after lawmakers asked to question three ministers who are ruling family members, including the oil exporter's energy minister, who is also the information minister." After all what better way to avoid answering questions in a bona fide "democracy" than to take down the entire government. But this too is bullish: "Ministerial resignations are frequent in Kuwait, which has the most outspoken parliament in the Gulf Arab region." In other words it was priced on. And furthermore, with a globalized corporatocracy long in charge of the world, receiving its lifeblood of endless money and cheap credit, who needs governments anyway.

Ag Commodities and The Coming Inflation

posted by Turd Ferguson at Along The Watchtower - 12 hours ago

Longtime readers will recall that we've had several conversations here regarding the impact that the Fed's quantitative easing policy is having on the costs of everyday food items. Soaring prices of agricu...

Bix Weir: World Gold Council supports gold price manipulation

 

Morgan-crashing Max Keiser interviewed by Lars Schall

 

China TV reports great shortage of gold

 

Buying Silver and Avoiding the Sharks


The Inflation Knuckleball


Here’s Your Guide To Debunking Gold Bears


International Forecaster March 2011 (#7) - Gold, Silver, Economy + More


Why Economists Love the Federal Reserve

Another failed raid/gold and silver hold

Harvey Organ, Tuesday, March 29 2011

Another failed raid/gold and silver hold

 

I'm back,  only needed to have one stent opened up in my heart, and am now good to go for a few years...

 

Guest Post: The Decline Of The American Saver And The Economy

Submitted by Tyler Durden on 03/29/2011 14:31 -0400

In the most recent release of the Personal Income and Disposition report by the Bureau of Economic Analysis the headline numbers were seemingly very good with personal consumption expenditures up 0.7% and personal incomes rising 0.3%. Unfortunately, that is about where all the good news ended...The problems that exist today are a function of America, as a whole, losing sight of what brought this country to its feet. A generation of savers and investors (individuals that took capital and built something with it) has turned into a generation of gamblers and speculators in many regards trying to build wealth through service based programs and financial transactions that generate little or no economic throughput. The end result will be a malaise of economic growth into the future plagued by higher levels of real unemployment, a weaker financial system as 78 million baby-boomers become net capital extractors and higher interest rates and inflation caused by excessive liquidity and theoretical monetary policy.

 

Massive Raw Gold Shortage In China - Supply And Demand Crunch Looms

Submitted by Tyler Durden on 03/29/2011 08:31 -0400

Asian demand is especially strong in the increasingly important China. The Chinese strong cultural affinity and love affair with gold (primarily due to a distrust of Chinese paper money) shows no signs of abating. Indeed, it may be accelerating as was seen in the recent figures from the Shanghai Gold Exchange and customs in China and now reports (including from CNTV – the national TV station of the People's Republic of China) of shortages of raw gold or unrefined gold. China, now the largest producer of gold in the world is seeing its gold mines struggle to cater for surging Chinese demand. The raw gold trade has been growing by up to 30% per annum and demand has leapt in recent months leading to a developing raw gold shortage in China. The industry in China expects only 27,000 tonnes of raw gold can be delivered this year. That is way below the estimated demand of 50,000 tonnes. A potential supply shortage of 23,000 tonnes of gold is a large amount of gold in the small gold bullion market which is tiny versus equity, bond and derivative markets. It is infinitesimal when compared to the $4,000 billion a day traded in currency markets. 

 

 

 

 

China's Dagong Sees No Threat Of Fed Monetization Ending, Believes "World Credit War" Is About To Escalate

Submitted by Tyler Durden on 03/29/2011 15:13 -0400

Starting to get doubts about QE3? Don't tell that to the official Chinese rating agency Dagong, who in traditional uber-pragmatic fashion, has the following summary observation on US monetary policy, and any imaginary changes thereto: "The second round quantitative easing policy ongoing in the United States can not change its weak domestic demand in the short term. In fact, it can only lower the interest rate of US Treasuries so as to maintain stable interest rate in the capital market in the long term, playing the indirect role of clearing some obstacles for a stable recovery. However, the plan of purchasing 600 billion US dollar Treasury bonds can not realize its predicted goal; and therefore, the United States will hardly change its predetermined monetary policy in 2011." What does this mean for China and the rest of the world: "The continuous implementation of such unconventional monetary policy in the United States will lead to the escalation of world credit war and inflict greater losses for related parties in the world credit system." Any questions?

 

 

 

 

Government Responds to Nuclear Accident by Trying to Raise Acceptable Radiation Levels and Pretending that Radiation is Good For Us 

Guardian Reports Core At Reactor 2 May Have Melted To Concrete Floor, Radioactive Lava Next?

Submitted by Tyler Durden on 03/29/2011 15:54 -0400

And another update from Fukushima on its route to the concrete dome, irradiated ground water, and a 100 km "no live zone" from the Guardian: "The radioactive core in a reactor at the crippled Fukushima nuclear power plant appears to have melted through the bottom of its containment vessel and on to a concrete floor, experts say, raising fears of a major release of radiation at the site. At least part of the molten core, which includes melted fuel rods and zirconium alloy cladding, seemed to have sunk through the steel "lower head" of the pressure vessel around reactor two, Lahey said. "The indications we have, from the reactor to radiation readings and the materials they are seeing, suggest that the core has melted through the bottom of the pressure vessel in unit two, and at least some of it is down on the floor of the drywell," Lahey said. "I hope I am wrong, but that is certainly what the evidence is pointing towards." But there is good news: "It won't come out as one big glob; it'll come out like lava, and that is good because it's easier to cool." Well that's a load off.

Simon Black On Another Form Of Inflation

Submitted by Tyler Durden on 03/29/2011 19:33 -0400

Sticker shock in grocery store checkout lines and gas pumps around the western world is starting to set in. At this point, you have to be living under a rock to not notice that prices of goods and services around the world are increasing substantially. Much of the blame for rising prices has rightfully been levied on the uncontrolled expansion of central bank balance sheets-- the US Federal Reserve, for example, created more money in the last two years than it had created in the previous 200. Rejecting reject the possibility that any of this money could impact consumer prices is just intellectually dishonest. There is another factor, however, that weighs heavily on inflation, and it is seldom discussed in this context: taxes. 

 

 

 

Unmanipulated US "Misery Index" Hits All Time High

Submitted by Tyler Durden on 03/29/2011 18:08 -0400

While everyone knows that the CPI in the US is manipulated beyond repair (a topic far too broad to be discussed here suffice to say that as disclosed previously true inflation in the US is currently runrating at over 8%), inflation as actually represented by US consumers and reported by Zero Hedge earlier, in the form of the 1 year inflation expectation index of the Conference Board lack of confidence index, is near all time highs. So if one takes this data series and adds to it the narrow unemployment definition (U3) one would get an adjusted Misery Index for US citizens (using inflation expectations instead of manipulated CPI). As the chart below shows, the Misery Index, which is merely inflation plus unemployment, constructed as such, would now be at an all time high. Hardly in keeping with Bernanke's wealth effect prerogative, but surely in line with record food stamp usage reported month after month. That said, the silver lining to that particular mushroom cloud is our confidence that as the bulk of Americans live in record "misery", they will be comforted to know that their 20 shares of NFLX are trading at a four digit EPS multiple. And the other good news is that we have the Brits beat again: whereas the US is at a record, the UK is merely at a 20 year high, proving once again that only the US never does anything half-assed.

MVOLNYE INDEX GP LOL

Submitted by Tyler Durden on 03/29/2011 16:10 -0400

If one central bank ramps up the wannabe Zimbabwe stock market to infinity and absolutely nobody is there to hear the sonic boom, did the central bank really pull a Gideon Gono? 

 

 

 

 

 

Latest Insider Selling To Buying Ratio: 18x

Submitted by Tyler Durden on 03/29/2011 11:57 -0400

Corporate insider appear to have moderate their relentless dumping of stock. After selling around have a billion in stock each week, corporate executives and officers, sold only $185 million worth of S&P 500 stock in the week ended last Friday per Bloomberg. The biggest selling was in the stock of HJ Heinz ($39 million), Pall ($20 million), and First Solar, Cisco and Priceline in 3rd, 4th and 5th positions (not all that surprisingly). As for buying, it continues to be lethagic and is rescued each week by the 10b-5 buying in Titanium Metals stock which accounted for 70% of last week's 10 million in purchases (one of the 8 transactions that comprised insider buying). Look for tomorrow's ICI number to see if domestic outflows have extended to a 4th consecutive week now that retail has once again lost its appetite for top ticking the market. 

 

 

 

 

Are You Prepared For Another 2008? Part 2


 Off to the hospital to have a stent installed in my heart...
If all goes well will be back posting in 24-48 hours...

World Gold Council to CFTC: Don't mess with paper gold

 

James Turk: Gold's hyperbolic trajectory

Options expiry brings on silver and gold raid/Japan troubles intensify/CFTC abruptly cancel meeting on the Vote for position limits.

Harvey Organ, Monday, March 28 2011

Options expiry brings on silver and gold raid/Japan troubles intensify/CFTC abruptly cancel meeting on the Vote for position limits.

 

With The CFTC Position Limit Response Period Over, Here Are Select Opinions By PIMCO, World Gold Council And Goldman Sachs

Submitted by Tyler Durden on 03/28/2011 19:21 -0400

The public comment period for the CFTC's proposed position limit rule has come and gone. It should come as no surprise to anyone (and particularly those transfixed by the massive surges in various commodities, among them most certainly gold and silver) that what is at stake here is not some actual position limit definition and subsequent regulation and enforcement (although that most certainly is), but yet another challenge to the klepocratic status quo which naturally prefers the status quo to remain as is, and public interests, which seeing 100% moves in the price of grain, cotton, corn, and other commodities, would obviously prefer to reign in speculative fervor. At the end of the day, Wall Street will find loopholes in whatever the end rule is as it always does, but the polemic on the way there is quite interesting. Which is why having combed through some of the last minute public comment submissions (of which there were 5,561 in total at last check), we present some of the most indicative ones: one the one hand that of Carl "Shitty Deal" Levin, Chair of the Permanent Subcommittee on Investigations, who obviously is for the most prompt implementation of position limits as envisioned in Dodd Frank, and on the other hand institutional money managers and traders such as PIMCO, Morgan Stanley, the World Gold Council, and, naturally, Goldman Sachs (oddly, we have yet to track down the response by one JP Morgan). We present these for our readers' perusal below. 

 

 

 

Barclays Says CFTC Should Delay Limits Decision Indefinitely

Submitted by Tyler Durden on 03/28/2011 17:26 -0400
Well, we know at least one bank has some sizable, non-grandfatherable commodity block positions. Per Reuters:

• BARCLAYS SAYS CFTC SHOULD DEFER DECISIONS ABOUT NATURE AND EXTENT OF POTENTIAL LIMITS UNTIL AFTER IT COLLECTS NEW DATA ABOUT OTC MARKETS

Why Barclays thinks CFTC does not have data on OTC markets is beyond us. So while we await the CFTC to issue its decision on position limits, any minute now, we wonder just how many other banks (wink wink Blythe) will follow up with comparable objections demanding an "indefinite" delay to what may soon unleash true price discovery, particularly in the PM market. And incidentally, whatever happened to the Fed's mandated disclosure of the confidential bank rescue information. At what point will Ben Bernanke be held in contempt to court for not following the decision of the Superior Court? 

President Obama's "Target Libya" Speech Summarized In One Picture

Submitted by Tyler Durden on 03/28/2011 19:57 -0400

Presented without comment 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

In The News Today

Posted: Mar 28 2011     By: Jim Sinclair      Post Edited: March 28, 2011 at 8:04 pm
Filed under: In The News

My Dear Friends,
The paper gold market is not the gold market. As in the 1970s, cash will rule the ultimate price. Gold’s involvement in a new virtual world currency will sustain 80% of that high price.
In the 1970s paper gold was a short term game and influence on price. Today paper gold has been just that.
Greg’s article posted today has reviewed what you must realize by now. Pay no attention to the games the gold banks are playing. That is for their short term benefit.
Gold will trade at $1650 before it goes much higher.
Regards,
Jim

We are Way Over the Edge Right Now

Posted: Mar 28 2011     By: Greg Hunter      Post Edited: March 28, 2011 at 1:38 pm
Filed under: USAWatchdog.com
By Greg Hunter USAWatchdog.com

Dear CIGAs,

Last Friday, I wrote a piece called “Could America be Pushed over the Economic Edge?” It was about how Libya, Japan or even covert economic warfare (from America’s enemies) could push the U.S. into another financial meltdown.  I received a one sentence email from my friend Jim Sinclair that said, “We are way over the edge right now.” His message gave me a sinking feeling.  Mr. Sinclair is a world renowned gold expert, but in order to trade that market, you must be extremely knowledgeable in many aspects of economics and politics.  Almost everything affects the price of gold.  War, government, oil, debt, money creation, the Fed and many other variables can dictate how much the yellow metal costs.  Gold is probably the single most difficult market to trade, and Sinclair is the Yoda of the gold traders (except much better looking.)
Last week on his website JSMineset.com, Mr. Sinclair outlined “why” we are already way over the edge right now and why gold is going much higher in price.  Here are a few of his reasons that I picked out from his bullet pointed post:  “You must realize that the economic and political damage is already done.  You must realize that the mountain of OTC derivative paper is not going away. . . . You must realize that this means the mountain of OTC derivative weapons of mass financial destruction can only grow. . . .You must realize that it is not whether or not QE will continue, it is what it already has done to the Western economies that much higher gold prices will reflect. . . .You must realize the monumental change in the Middle East is NOT positive for the West in any manner, shape or form. . . . You must realize that it is the currency that breaks, not the country.” (Click here for the entire Jim Sinclair post.)
More…

Paging Blythe, SLV call volume high, some May PUT premiums IN THE RED, paging Blythe

posted by silvergoldsilver at silvergoldsilver - 1 hour ago

How on earth do premiums decline on the put side, when silver gets crushed? I'll tell you why. No one is buying puts. And the volume on red silver days on the calls is indicating higher fiat prices in Apr...

Atlanta Fed's Lockhart On Headwinds And Tailwinds

Submitted by Tyler Durden on 03/28/2011 14:10 -0400

Atlanta Fed's Lockhart is out with another prepared speech (and this week we will get over ten of these; keep in mind this is all talk - when it comest to voting, Hoenig was the only man who actually could not be accused of hypocricy). Lockhart weighs economic headwinds and tailwinds and comes to a net positive outlook for the rest of 2011 and 2012. Headwinds holding back economic recovery include continued declines in home prices, higher food and energy prices, crises abroad, and fiscal adjustments. Favorable forces—tailwinds—that are pushing the economy forward include improved household finances, moderate employment and income growth, and corporate profitability and ample liquidity. Per Dennis, the financial system continues to heal, supporting growth, although lenders remain conservative and some businesses and consumers still have only limited access to credit. Lockhart foresees continuation of moderate growth, gradually declining unemployment, and the settling of price movements around an inflation rate that is consistent with the Federal Reserve's price stability objective. While short-term measures of inflation have accelerated in the last few months, in Lockhart's view this trajectory will not continue. Lockhart believes that growth in overall consumer prices—at around 2 percent per year through a period of three or four years—is consistent with the Federal Reserve's price stability mandate. He continues to see this objective as attainable. Lockhart remains satisfied with the current stance of monetary policy but is prepared to support a change of policy if evidence accumulates that the low and stable inflation objective is at risk. In other words, Lockhart likely saw subprime as contained back in 2006. In other words, Lockhart most certainly saw subprime as contained back in 2006. The kicker from Lockhart's speech: "contrary to popular opinion, Fed officials actually do eat and fill up their gas tanks." That's admirable: is it with banker money though?

Silver - 8 hour chart update

posted by Trader Dan at Trader Dan's Market Views - 1 hour ago 

Gold - 8 Hour chart update

posted by Trader Dan at Trader Dan's Market Views - 2 hours ago 

 

 

 

Are You Prepared For Another 2008? Pt 1

 

 

 

Revisiting The Grand Farcade: A Visual Guide To Round Two Of The European Stress Test

Submitted by Tyler Durden on 03/28/2011 13:55 -0400

It is no secret that everyone who manages money looks at each and every iteration of the European (or US) stress tests as nothing but a glorified farce, attempting to restore systemic credibility, yet which ulitmately always end up hurting it. That the first European stress test identified exactly zero of the banks that failed within months in Ireland is also no secret. However, with Europe once again out of options, here comes stress test round two. For those who care about this grand farcade (sic), here is a simple visual summary. We fully intend to recreate this post some time in March 2012, describing what Stress Test round 3 will look like. 

 

 

 

Guest Post: Why The European Union Is Doomed

Submitted by Tyler Durden on 03/28/2011 13:24 -0400

To understand the structural flaw which dooms the European Union, we need to start with the Union's fundamental financial characteristics. The European Union established a single currency and trading zone for the classical Capitalist benefits this offered: a reduction in the cost of conducting business between the member nations and a freer flow of capital and labor across borders. But there were flaws in the structure that are now painfully apparent. The Union consolidated power over the shared currency (euro) and trade but not over the member states’ current-account (trade) deficits and budget deficits. While lip-service was paid to fiscal rectitude via caps on deficit spending, in the real world there were no meaningful controls on the creation of private or state credit or on sovereign borrowing and spending. Thus the expansion of the united economy via the classical Capitalist advantages of freely flowing capital and labor were piggy-backed on the expansion of credit and financialization enabled by the Neoliberal Capitalist structure of the union. The alliance of the Central State and its intrinsic desire to centrally manage the economy to benefit its fiefdoms and Elites and classical free-market Capitalism has always been uneasy. On the surface, the E.U. squared the circle, enabling stability, plentiful credit creation and easier access to new markets for all. But beneath this beneficent surface lurked impossible-to-resist opportunities for exploitation and arbitrage. 

 

 

 

Time To Dump TEPCO CDS: Japan Considering Nationalization Of Most Recent TBTF-Club Entrant

Submitted by Tyler Durden on 03/28/2011 14:19 -0400

Per Yomiuri, TEPCO may be up for nationalization, precisely as we had predicted, due to the insurmountable amount of accrued liabilities from the Fukushima disaster which would bury a standalone company. And just as we rode the CDS on the way up from 90 to 460, so now is the time to assume there will be no credit risk whatsoever, now that TEPCO is the first ever Japanese TBTF. Time to bail as central planning is about to branch out. 

 

 

 

 

Dallas Fed Big Miss, Prints at 11.5 On Expectations Of 18.4, Survey Respondent: "All Of Our Raw Material Costs Are At Record Highs"

Submitted by Tyler Durden on 03/28/2011 10:41 -0400

The Dallas Fed diffusion index is out, coming at a disappointing 11.5 on expectations of 18.4, with the market completely ignoring it. After all good diffusion index data is to be bought even if it confirms surging inflation, and bad diffusion index data is to be avoided. And while the component data is pretty bad (projected wages and benefits 6 months ahead plunge by 12 points as do Capital Expenditures, as firms refuse to spend any more organic cash on growth, offset by expectations of lower input costs, which remains TBD), the true nuts and bolts of the index can be gleaned from the respondent surve, presented below, although the most relevant one is here: "Prices are high, which makes for lower volume. The supply of cattle is limited. The cost of grain for livestock is unusually high because of high corn prices, partly attributable  to ethanol subsidies. All of our raw material costs are at record highs. The cost of diesel also hurts us. A weak dollar is not good for us." No surprise there.

Graham Summers’ Free Weekly Market Forecast (the Fed is Terrified Edition)

Global Tactical Asset Allocation Q1 Update: Equities

Submitted by Tyler Durden on 03/28/2011 09:42 -0400

The much anticipated Global Tactical Asset Allocation quarterly update from Damien Cleusix is finally out. Arguably one of the most comprehensive equity market overviews, we present it in its entirety for our readers' enjoyment.

Falling Supply, Rising Demand & Currency Devaluation

posted by Eric De Groot at Eric De Groot - 24 minutes ago

Falling supply and rising demand within backdrop currency devaluation is an explosive cocktail driving commodity markets. Headline: USDA confirms corn exports of 1.25m tons to anonymous destination Meanwhi...

 

 

 

Goldman Q1 GDP Imminent Downgrade Warning Gets Louder: "Significant Downside Risk To Our Q1 GDP Estimate Of +3.5% "

Submitted by Tyler Durden on 03/28/2011 09:18 -0400

Following last week's deplorable durable goods number, and the subsequent Goldman warning, i.e. "the data increase the sense of downside risk to our Q1 GDP estimate of 3.5%", Hatzius has just stepped it up a notch, adding a key adjective confirming it is just a matter of time now: "The latest real consumption figures - including revisions to earlier months - point to growth for Q1 as a whole of approximately 1.75-2.0% qoq annualized. This compares to our current forecast of +3.0%. The report therefore implies significant downside risk to our Q1 GDP estimate of +3.5% qoq annualized." We give it two weeks. 

 

 

 

Savings Rate Dips As Consumers Spend More, Earn Less In February

Submitted by Tyler Durden on 03/28/2011 08:45 -0400

While there was no surprise in this morning's release of the PCE data, which came at 0.2%, on top of expectations, and unchanged from January's revised 0.2%, it was the action at the consumer level that was notable, as Spending increased from a revised 0.3% to 0.7%, on expectations of 0.5%, while personal income declined notably from a revised 1.2% to 0.3%, below expectations, as US Consumer had to dip into their savings in the month of February. On the Personal Savings Rate: "Personal saving -- DPI less personal outlays -- was $676.7 billion in February, compared with $710.5 billion in January.  Personal saving as a percentage of disposable personal income was 5.8 percent in February, compared with 6.1 percent in January." As the chart shows, personal savings continue to trend in the 5-6% range, indicating that consumers are still uncertain whether to splurge or continue deleveraging.

S&P Warns May Downgrade Portugal Again As Early As This Week

Submitted by Tyler Durden on 03/28/2011 07:44 -0400

More bad news for Portuguese bonds which just traded at lifetime high yields. From Moody's: "We are lowering our long- and short-term counterparty credit ratings on the five Portuguese banks and two related subsidiaries that we rate. The long-term ratings remain on CreditWatch with negative implications. The negative CreditWatch implications reflect the possibility of a further sovereign downgrade, which we expect could take place as early as this week, and its direct and/or indirect impact on our view of Portuguese banks' creditworthiness." 

 

 

 

Bernanke On The Effects Of Oil Price Shocks, And Why The Fed Will Never Tighten In Response To Oil At Any Price

Submitted by Tyler Durden on 03/27/2011 23:00 -0400

Curious what Bernanke thinks of ongoing oil price shocks? Wondering how long before the great Chairsatan will tighten in response to $120 Brent? The shorts answer - never. But don't take our word for it. Here is a paper titled by the eponymous nemesis of printer cartridge conservation, titled "Systematic Monetary Policy and the Effects of Oil Price Shocks" written when the urge for genocide was just a germ, a seedling if you will, back in the good old 1997. In it, Bernanke, who was yet to make his epochal statement about paradropping crisp Benjamins, makes it all too clear why neither oil at $120 nor oil at $1,120 will be enough to push the FOMC to hike: "an important part of the effect of oil price shocks on the economy results not from the change in oil prices, per se, but from the resulting tightening of monetary policy.” And there you have it: it is not the natural price response to a period of extensively loose monetary policy that is the issue, it is the Fed doing the right thing and ending the spigot that will be the end of the economy, sayeth the Bernank. And somehow this man runs the world...
Full paper below:

Complete Chronological Analysis Of Fukushima Reactor 1 - 3 Data

Submitted by Tyler Durden on 03/28/2011 08:27 -0400

With TEPCO unwilling (or unable) to disclose consolidated detailed information about the status of its reactors, the task has fallen on third party analysts. Luckily, Jorge Stolfi of the state university of the State University of Campinas in Brazil, has compiled what is probably the most comprehensive data dump of all key Fukushima reactor indicators including water level, core, drywell and torus pressure, as well as temperature at the core bottom and nozzle. Below are the detailed results for each of the fuel loaded reactors since the start of the crisis. 

 

 

 

TEPCO Says Plutonium Found On Ground In Various Locations Within Fukushima Complex

Submitted by Tyler Durden on 03/28/2011 10:59 -0400

Shit just got real. The spin? It is not harmful to human health. Oh really? We can't wait for Kan to eat some plutonium on national TV to confirm this. 

 

 

 

 

Glenn Beck: The Creature From Jekyll Island

G. Edward Griffin, the author of the book "The Creature From Jekyll Island: A Second Look at the Federal Reserve" was on Glenn Beck's TV program yesterday. He was...and here's the first part of the Fox News clip of that interview...and I'm hoping the rest of it will be posted sometime today...as only the first twelve minutes were available as of 7:00 a.m. Eastern time this morning.  It runs about eleven minutes...and the part that is posted is well worth watching. The link is here.

In the Sovereign Fiscal Responsibility Index, the Comeback America Initiative ranked 34 countries according to their ability to meet their financial challenges, and the US finished 28th, said David Walker, head of the organization and former US comptroller general. The link to the story, which is posted over at cnbc.com, is here.

Radiation At Fukushima Water Jumps To Over 1 Sievert, 10 Million Times Higher Than "Normal", Plutonium Tests Ordered For The First Time

Submitted by Tyler Durden on 03/27/2011 11:20 -0400

And the hits just keep on coming. Earlier today, TEPCO announced that the radiation in the water pool of reactor #2 had been measured at 1,000 millisieverts/h (1 sievert/h) - the highest reading so far recorded since the Fukushima disaster started. As a reminder, the U.S. Environmental Protection Agency says a single dose of 1,000 millisieverts is enough to cause haemorrhaging, which a ten hour exposure to this dose is enough to result in death. "The situation is serious. They have to pump away this water on the floor, get rid of it to lower the radiation," said Robert Finck, radiation protection specialist at the Swedish Radiation Safety Authority, speaking before the operator expressed doubt about the high reading. "It's virtually impossible to work, you can only be there for a few minutes. It's impossible to say how long it will take before they can gradually take control." From Kyodo: "Plant operator Tokyo Electric Power Co. said the concentration of radioactive substances of the puddle was 10 million times higher than that seen usually in water in a reactor core, but later decided to reanalyze the data because it found some errors." And keep in mind this is the idiocy that is resulting after last week the brilliant geniuses at TECPO came up with the plan to water each and every reactor: now it's time to remove the water, but the water just happens to be so radioactive, nobody can remove it. In the meantime the leak into the ocean keeps getting worse: "Radioactive iodine-131 at a concentration 1,850.5 times the legal limit was detected in a seawater sample taken around 330 meters south of the plant, near a drainage outlet of the four troubled reactors, compared with 1,250.8 times the limit found Friday, the agency said." And while Zero Hedge has long believed that the only possible outcome here is the Plan Z concrete entombment, which will guarantee an 80 km non-inhabitable radius around Fukushima in perpetuity, finally the "experts" are warming up to this idea: per Reuters: "Experts say there is still too much heat in the reactor cores and spent fuel at the Fukushima plant for a similar last-ditch solution to be considered yet."

Following The Earlier TEPCO Reporting Flap, Here Is A Simple Way To Resolve The True Radioactivity At Reactor 2

Submitted by Tyler Durden on 03/27/2011 12:41 -0400

Here is a simple way to clear up the flap over the earlier "false" reporting on whether or not TEPCO screwed up by releasing the figure of 1 sievert of radiation as emanating from the water pool at Reactor 2. From the IAEA: "As previously reported, three workers at the Fukushima Daiichi nuclear power plant were exposed on 24 March to elevated levels of radiation. The IAEA has received additional information on the incident from the Japanese authorities. For two of the three workers, significant skin contamination over their legs was confirmed. The Japanese authorities have stated that during medical examinations carried out at the National Institute of Radiological Sciences in the Chiba Prefecture, the level of local exposure to the workers’ legs was estimated to be between 2 and 6 sieverts. While the patients did not require medical treatment, doctors decided to keep them in hospital and monitor their progress over coming days." All that needs to be disclosed now is how long these workers were in the contaminated water for. If it was between 2 and 6 hours, and the cumulative exposure was 2 - 6 sieverts, it would be rather consistent with the reported record exposure of 1 sievert/hour. If it was shorter, and the upper estimate is correct, the exposure could be as high as 6 sieverts/hour, a figure, based on the prior methodology, about 60 million times higher than permitted.

Exit Polls Indicate Merkel's CDU Set To Lose Key Baden-Wuerttemberg Regional Election; SPD, Greens To Win With 48.5% Of Votes

Submitted by Tyler Durden on 03/27/2011 12:29 -0400

And more bad news for European cohesiveness. From Reuters: "Chancellor Angela Merkel's Christian Democrats will lose control of Germany's most prosperous state to the centre-left opposition in a major upset to her centre-right government, according to TV exit polls.  In Baden-Wuerttemberg state, the Greens and Social Democrats (SPD) looked set to win a combined 48.5 percent in an election on Sunday where Japan's nuclear disaster played a major role. The centre-left has long pushed to end the use of nuclear power. The Christian Democrats (CDU) and their Free Democrat coalition partners, big backers of prolonging the use of nuclear power in Germany, won a combined 43 percent of the vote, network ARD said shortly after polls closed at 1600 GMT." For Merkel, this is probably the last nail in the political coffin as the troubled premier is no longer able to placate either a broader Eurozone demanding far greater taxpayer concessions from her citizens in preventing the fall of the Euro (and the return of the Deutsche Mark, which would surge upon reimplementation, crippling Germany's export market, as a the old system reasserts itself), nor can she convince her own people that she has their best interests in mind, with the latest flap over nuclear power plants certainly not helping. 

Nash Equilibrium Fail: Ireland Wants Senior Bondholder Haircuts

Submitted by Tyler Durden on 03/27/2011 12:04 -0400

And so the great decade + old eurozone game theory project of Europe is about to come crashing down. Following Europe's decision to leave Ireland out in the cold, due to the country's ongoing unwillingness to pander with unilateral concessions to the global banking syndicate, the Emerald Isle has apparently decided to call the EU's bluff. Reuters reports: "Ireland's government wants to impose losses on some senior bondholders in Irish lenders to reduce the burden on taxpayers from a prolonged banking crisis, a senior minister said on Sunday...Analysts widely expect the government to impose losses on senior bondholders in nationalized lenders Anglo Irish Bank and Irish Nationwide because they have sold their deposits and are being wound down. Hitting any unsecured unguaranteed senior bonds in Bank of Ireland and Allied Irish Banks (AIB), which amount to over 11 billion euros, would be more controversial." Yet most controversial would be the fact that the Eurozone is now unable to control its wayward son, which seems set on actually following the will of its people than that of the plutocrats. And just like Tunisia set a precedent to the MENA region with an act many thought was unthinkable, should Ireland follow through with this near-revolutionary act of a debt impairing chain-reaction, most other countries are set to follow suit, leading not only to the inevitable end of the one currency block, expected for so long by many euroskeptics, but yet another US taxpayer funded bailout, as was revealed on Thursday of last week, when we observed the upcoming "threat to the international monetary system" as predicted by the IMF.




If Big Banks Raise Fees, Bank Elsewhere: Rep. Bawney Fwank

 

 

 

 

Is the JP Morgue Like OJ owning a CSI firm and investigating his own murder?

From goldprice.org:

"GOLD/SILVER RATIO touched more new lows this week. Closed today at 38.486. Shhhh -- Listen. Come close and I'll tell y'all something you won't hear anywhere else, but don't tell anybody. At 38.486 the ratio stands below its 10 year, below its 20 year, below its 30 year, below its 50 year, below its 60 year, and below its 110 year average. In fact, it's nearer the 220 year average than the 110 year. Put that into perspective: the 10 year average is 60.53, 22 points higher.

Friends, the big run has begun." 

At King World News, Turk and Embry prepare for metal's big move

Submitted by cpowell on Wed, 2011-03-23 23:45. Section: Daily Dispatches

7:36p ET Wednesday, March 23, 2011
Dear Friend of GATA and Gold (and Silver):
Eric King of King World News tonight cranks up the wattage for Radio Free Markets, interviewing GoldMoney founder James Turk and Sprott Asset Management's chief investment strategist, John Embry, about what may prove to be the big gold and silver breakouts.

Alasdair Macleod: Inflation and equities

 

Caution strong language...

Is the JP Morgue Like OJ owning a CSI firm and investigating his own murder?

 

 

Did the Genz just flee to Europe?

I'm hearing some shit here folks that the Genz has fled! Monday will bring fireworks? Just a heads up, that something EPIC might be on its way.

 

 

US Naval Update: CVN 65 Enterprise Abandons Libya, Reinforces CVN 70 Vinson In Straits Of Hormuz

Submitted by Tyler Durden on 03/26/2011 20:22 -0400

Wonder why the administration made such a stink of reducing the US airborne presence around Libya, and handing it off to France, Italy, Canada and Turkey? Here's the answer: the CVN65 Enterprise which last week was within striking distance of Libya, has quietly left the Red Sea and is now virtually swimming in the wake of CVN 70 Vinson in the Strait of Hormuz. Because obviously whatever is about to happen in the Persian Gulf will need not one but two aircraft carrier formations. And meanwhile in Japan the Washington is doing all it can to put radiation free miles between itself and Fukushima, even as the Essex, chock full of marines is sitting on the coast waiting for orders. 

 

 

 

Videos From The Violent Syrian Revolution: Will A "No Oil Zone" Mean Syrians Can Kiss Dreams Of A "No Fly Zone" Goodbye?

Submitted by Tyler Durden on 03/26/2011 19:58 -0400

The one revolution currently rocking the Levant region (more fitting than MENA as it include Greece which at last check was also not all that peaceful, as well as Italy, which soon won't be all that peaceful either) that few are talking about is that of Syria, which has been put on the backburner as no holy crusade is currently in place to liberate its people, but, far more importantly, its oil, nor does it even have oil, is that of Syria. Which is unfortunate because all the public outcry crusaders who just look for their chance to express their disapproval of the latest toppling regime (after quietly sitting on the sidelines for ages saying nothing), would have a field day with what is going on in Damascus, but primarily the city of Daraa for the time being. Per Haaretz: "Syrian security forces killed on Saturday two protesters who tried to torch the ruling Baath Party headquarters in the port city of Latakia, rights activist Ammar Qarabi told Reuters in the Egyptian capital. Protesters set fire to offices of the ruling party in southern and western Syria on Saturday, burning tires and attacking cars and shops in a religiously mixed city on the Mediterranean coast, according to accounts by government officials, activists and witnesses. More than a week of protests centered in Daraa exploded into nationwide unrest Friday when tens of thousands of protesters marched in cities, town and villages around the country, posing the greatest threat in decades to the Baath party's iron-fisted rule." Unfortunately for the people of Syria, they should prepare for the same kind of retaliation that Gaddafi rained upon his own discontents, until France, pardon the UN, pardon the US, pardon NATO, pardon not the Arab League, pardon total chaos, decided to step in and order a no fly zone. Alas, rule #1 in international economics: "No oil Zone", means no "No fly zone." Syria, you are on your own.

London Rioters Attack Ritz Hotel, Fail To Dent Reinforced Glass

Submitted by Tyler Durden on 03/26/2011 15:21 -0400

Just your typical London protest. The Telegraph has recorded the attempted break and entry into a bank, which however proves too much for scattered "anarchists" courtesy of reinforced glass. The same can not be said for the Ritz hotel unfortunately. 

 

 

 

 

 

Of The Fed's $120 Billion In "Other Assets" - An $80 Billion Gift To Primary Dealers?

Submitted by Tyler Durden on 03/26/2011 14:51 -0400

Following our latest Fed balance sheet update, where we get another confirmation that for another week the Fed's assets have hit a fresh all time record (Bernanke now owns nearly $200 billion more Treasurys than China), there are two items that we believe deserve far closer scrutiny. The first is the as expected drop in MBS and Agency prepayments, which after seeing an initial surge in activity when rates were low enough to merit prepaying existing mortgages, has now plunged. In fact in the last several weeks the average prepay activity is roughly half of what it was in the September-December period. This is critical as it impacts the amount of debt the Fed can monetize via the QE Lite component of the ongoing monetization procedure. Should this weekly prepayment amount remain constrained, the Fed will have far less of a marginal impact on share prices (which is what POMO ultimately is) then if QE Lite was working at its expected $25-35 billion a month monetization run rate (in addition to the $70-80 billion from QE 2). Yet far more questionable is the recent surge in "Other Federal Reserve Assets" - an observation we have commented on previously, yet which we attributed merely to capitalized accrued interest on the Fed's portfolio. However, following the recent remittance of tens of billions in interest expense from the Fed to the Treasury we now know that is not the case, so we kindly request that the Fed answer the following simple question: just what is the key driver in the growth of this asset category, which in the week ending March 23 hit a fresh all time high of $120.4 billion? In fact, we are rather stunned that nobody before has asked just what "other assets" comprise a line item that is greater than the GDP of about 80% of the world's countries.

TEPCO Admits To Another Cover Up As Radioactivity In Seawater Near Fukushima Soars To 1,251 Above Legal Limit

Submitted by Tyler Durden on 03/26/2011 10:26 -0400

The latest news out of Fukushima confirms fears that irradiated water containment at the radioactive plant has been complete breached, after Radioactive iodine-131 at a concentration 1,250.8 times the legal limit was detected Friday morning in a seawater sample taken around 330 meters south of the plant, near the drainage outlets of the four troubled reactors, the government's Nuclear and Industrial Safety Agency said Saturday. As Kyodo updates: "The level rose to its highest so far in the survey begun this week, after remaining around levels about 100 times the legal limit. It is highly likely that radioactive water in the plant has found its way into the sea, TEPCO said." It's all good though: the government has a prepared strawman for this unprecedented surge in radioactivity as well."Radioactive materials ''will be significantly diluted'' by the time they are consumed by marine species, the agency said, adding it would not have a significant impact on fishery products as fishing is not being conducted in the area within 20 kilometers of the plant because the government has issued a directive for residents in the zone to evacuate." But none of this matter as we get the latest confirmation that no news coming out of the stricken plant can be trusted: "TEPCO's Fukushima office acknowledged Saturday that it had known earlier that the radiation in the underground level of the turbine building of one of the reactors was extremely high, but had not made the information available to pertinent parties."




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