Dallas Fed Big Miss, Prints at 11.5 On Expectations Of 18.4, Survey Respondent: "All Of Our Raw Material Costs Are At Record Highs"

Submitted by Tyler Durden on 03/28/2011 10:41 -0400

The Dallas Fed diffusion index is out, coming at a disappointing 11.5 on expectations of 18.4, with the market completely ignoring it. After all good diffusion index data is to be bought even if it confirms surging inflation, and bad diffusion index data is to be avoided. And while the component data is pretty bad (projected wages and benefits 6 months ahead plunge by 12 points as do Capital Expenditures, as firms refuse to spend any more organic cash on growth, offset by expectations of lower input costs, which remains TBD), the true nuts and bolts of the index can be gleaned from the respondent surve, presented below, although the most relevant one is here: "Prices are high, which makes for lower volume. The supply of cattle is limited. The cost of grain for livestock is unusually high because of high corn prices, partly attributable  to ethanol subsidies. All of our raw material costs are at record highs. The cost of diesel also hurts us. A weak dollar is not good for us." No surprise there.

Graham Summers’ Free Weekly Market Forecast (the Fed is Terrified Edition)

Global Tactical Asset Allocation Q1 Update: Equities

Submitted by Tyler Durden on 03/28/2011 09:42 -0400

The much anticipated Global Tactical Asset Allocation quarterly update from Damien Cleusix is finally out. Arguably one of the most comprehensive equity market overviews, we present it in its entirety for our readers' enjoyment.

Falling Supply, Rising Demand & Currency Devaluation

posted by Eric De Groot at Eric De Groot - 24 minutes ago

Falling supply and rising demand within backdrop currency devaluation is an explosive cocktail driving commodity markets. Headline: USDA confirms corn exports of 1.25m tons to anonymous destination Meanwhi...

 

 

 

Goldman Q1 GDP Imminent Downgrade Warning Gets Louder: "Significant Downside Risk To Our Q1 GDP Estimate Of +3.5% "

Submitted by Tyler Durden on 03/28/2011 09:18 -0400

Following last week's deplorable durable goods number, and the subsequent Goldman warning, i.e. "the data increase the sense of downside risk to our Q1 GDP estimate of 3.5%", Hatzius has just stepped it up a notch, adding a key adjective confirming it is just a matter of time now: "The latest real consumption figures - including revisions to earlier months - point to growth for Q1 as a whole of approximately 1.75-2.0% qoq annualized. This compares to our current forecast of +3.0%. The report therefore implies significant downside risk to our Q1 GDP estimate of +3.5% qoq annualized." We give it two weeks. 

 

 

 

Savings Rate Dips As Consumers Spend More, Earn Less In February

Submitted by Tyler Durden on 03/28/2011 08:45 -0400

While there was no surprise in this morning's release of the PCE data, which came at 0.2%, on top of expectations, and unchanged from January's revised 0.2%, it was the action at the consumer level that was notable, as Spending increased from a revised 0.3% to 0.7%, on expectations of 0.5%, while personal income declined notably from a revised 1.2% to 0.3%, below expectations, as US Consumer had to dip into their savings in the month of February. On the Personal Savings Rate: "Personal saving -- DPI less personal outlays -- was $676.7 billion in February, compared with $710.5 billion in January.  Personal saving as a percentage of disposable personal income was 5.8 percent in February, compared with 6.1 percent in January." As the chart shows, personal savings continue to trend in the 5-6% range, indicating that consumers are still uncertain whether to splurge or continue deleveraging.

S&P Warns May Downgrade Portugal Again As Early As This Week

Submitted by Tyler Durden on 03/28/2011 07:44 -0400

More bad news for Portuguese bonds which just traded at lifetime high yields. From Moody's: "We are lowering our long- and short-term counterparty credit ratings on the five Portuguese banks and two related subsidiaries that we rate. The long-term ratings remain on CreditWatch with negative implications. The negative CreditWatch implications reflect the possibility of a further sovereign downgrade, which we expect could take place as early as this week, and its direct and/or indirect impact on our view of Portuguese banks' creditworthiness." 

 

 

 

Bernanke On The Effects Of Oil Price Shocks, And Why The Fed Will Never Tighten In Response To Oil At Any Price

Submitted by Tyler Durden on 03/27/2011 23:00 -0400

Curious what Bernanke thinks of ongoing oil price shocks? Wondering how long before the great Chairsatan will tighten in response to $120 Brent? The shorts answer - never. But don't take our word for it. Here is a paper titled by the eponymous nemesis of printer cartridge conservation, titled "Systematic Monetary Policy and the Effects of Oil Price Shocks" written when the urge for genocide was just a germ, a seedling if you will, back in the good old 1997. In it, Bernanke, who was yet to make his epochal statement about paradropping crisp Benjamins, makes it all too clear why neither oil at $120 nor oil at $1,120 will be enough to push the FOMC to hike: "an important part of the effect of oil price shocks on the economy results not from the change in oil prices, per se, but from the resulting tightening of monetary policy.” And there you have it: it is not the natural price response to a period of extensively loose monetary policy that is the issue, it is the Fed doing the right thing and ending the spigot that will be the end of the economy, sayeth the Bernank. And somehow this man runs the world...
Full paper below:

Complete Chronological Analysis Of Fukushima Reactor 1 - 3 Data

Submitted by Tyler Durden on 03/28/2011 08:27 -0400

With TEPCO unwilling (or unable) to disclose consolidated detailed information about the status of its reactors, the task has fallen on third party analysts. Luckily, Jorge Stolfi of the state university of the State University of Campinas in Brazil, has compiled what is probably the most comprehensive data dump of all key Fukushima reactor indicators including water level, core, drywell and torus pressure, as well as temperature at the core bottom and nozzle. Below are the detailed results for each of the fuel loaded reactors since the start of the crisis. 

 

 

 

TEPCO Says Plutonium Found On Ground In Various Locations Within Fukushima Complex

Submitted by Tyler Durden on 03/28/2011 10:59 -0400

Shit just got real. The spin? It is not harmful to human health. Oh really? We can't wait for Kan to eat some plutonium on national TV to confirm this.