The session is still young but the silver bulls finally appeared to have beaten back the defenders at $36 on good volume. Bears are attempting to stymie the move higher by digging in near $36.50. When the ...
If you're like me, you're probably sick and tired of seeing this shit almost every single frickin day: At least, so far, we've begun a nice FUBM but still...it sure does get old. Take a look at the POSX. I...
When Gadhafi falls, does Libya's gold get leased at 1% per year?
Good thing this isn't happening in the U.S. too
Posted: Mar 22 2011 By: Dan Norcini Post Edited: March 22, 2011 at 12:45 am
Filed under: Trader Dan Norcini
Dear CIGAs,
The Broad Dollar index is a much wider or "broader" representation of the plight of the US Dollar on the global markets as the basket from which the index is created is more representative of the globe than the smaller basket of currencies that comprise the USDX.
Even at that, it still shows a very similiar pattern to the USDX and is also now technically within striking distance of its 2008 low having broken downside support near 97.
It is highly unlikely that gold will not make a new lifetime high if this support level near 95 fails. I can easily see it above $1500 were this to occur.
I also believe that the US Dollar is at levels that are now necessitating it to be watched very closely by the US monetary authorities. In much the same manner as the Yen went flying to the upside, so too the Dollar could go crashing to the downside if the speculators decide to sit on it in earnest. While the Fed and the US officials WANT a lower Dollar, they do not want a Dollar crash. Sometimes it is easier to talk about such things than to actually accomplish it.
Should the Dollar carry trade increase in intensity, every hedge fund on the planet would be arrayed against the G7. That would be weird to say the least as the G7 monetary officials do not want the Yen any higher yet if they are not careful they may end up pushing the Dollar past the point of no return. What an awful stinking mess!
Click chart to enlarge in PDF format with commentary from Trader Dan Norcini
For further market analysis and commentary, please see Trader Dan’s website at www.traderdan.net
Posted: Mar 22 2011 By: Dan Norcini Post Edited: March 22, 2011 at 12:42 am
Filed under: Trader Dan Norcini
US Dollar Update
Dear CIGAs,
As has been the pattern over the last view trading sessions, the US Dollar has become the whipping boy for the global forex trading crowd.
Today is was strength in the Euro which sent it lower. Talk is picking up that the next move in regards to interest rates by the ECB will be to raise them. That contrasts sharply with the situation around the US Dollar where rates will remain low for the immediate future.
Given this fact, it is difficult to make a case for the Dollar right now as it moves ever closer to a long term inflection point on the charts. It is sitting only a mere 40-45 points from this support level with the RSI not yet in oversold territory. That alone is rather foreboding.
Each blip higher in the Dollar has kept the RSI in a defined downtrend as indicated by the inability to break the downtrend line shown on that indicator.
Simply put, there is currently no strength in the Dollar. Keep in mind this is taking place against a backdrop where the Yen is being kept weak. Imagine where the Dollar would be had not the G7 intervention taken place?
I also happen to believe that is one of the reasons that made it easy for the G7 to agree to a round of coordinated intervention. It might have also been to help the Dollar also! Had the Yen not been taken down, the Dollar would have crashed through a major support level.
Click chart to enlarge in PDF format with commentary from Trader Dan Norcini
For further market analysis and commentary, please see Trader Dan’s website at www.traderdan.net
The Broad Dollar index is a much wider or "broader" representation of the plight of the US Dollar on the global markets as the basket from which the index is created is more representative of the globe than the smaller basket of currencies that comprise the USDX.
Even at that, it still shows a very similiar pattern to the USDX and is also now technically within striking distance of its 2008 low having broken downside support near 97.
It is highly unlikely that gold will not make a new lifetime high if this support level near 95 fails. I can easily see it above $1500 were this to occur.
I also believe that the US Dollar is at levels that are now necessitating it to be watched very closely by the US monetary authorities. In much the same manner as the Yen went flying to the upside, so too the Dollar could go crashing to the downside if the speculators decide to sit on it in earnest. While the Fed and the US officials WANT a lower Dollar, they do not want a Dollar crash. Sometimes it is easier to talk about such things than to actually accomplish it.
Should the Dollar carry trade increase in intensity, every hedge fund on the planet would be arrayed against the G7. That would be weird to say the least as the G7 monetary officials do not want the Yen any higher yet if they are not careful they may end up pushing the Dollar past the point of no return. What an awful stinking mess!
Click chart to enlarge in PDF format with commentary from Trader Dan Norcini
For further market analysis and commentary, please see Trader Dan’s website at www.traderdan.net
Posted: Mar 22 2011 By: Dan Norcini Post Edited: March 22, 2011 at 12:42 am
Filed under: Trader Dan Norcini
US Dollar Update
Dear CIGAs,
As has been the pattern over the last view trading sessions, the US Dollar has become the whipping boy for the global forex trading crowd.
Today is was strength in the Euro which sent it lower. Talk is picking up that the next move in regards to interest rates by the ECB will be to raise them. That contrasts sharply with the situation around the US Dollar where rates will remain low for the immediate future.
Given this fact, it is difficult to make a case for the Dollar right now as it moves ever closer to a long term inflection point on the charts. It is sitting only a mere 40-45 points from this support level with the RSI not yet in oversold territory. That alone is rather foreboding.
Each blip higher in the Dollar has kept the RSI in a defined downtrend as indicated by the inability to break the downtrend line shown on that indicator.
Simply put, there is currently no strength in the Dollar. Keep in mind this is taking place against a backdrop where the Yen is being kept weak. Imagine where the Dollar would be had not the G7 intervention taken place?
I also happen to believe that is one of the reasons that made it easy for the G7 to agree to a round of coordinated intervention. It might have also been to help the Dollar also! Had the Yen not been taken down, the Dollar would have crashed through a major support level.
Click chart to enlarge in PDF format with commentary from Trader Dan Norcini
For further market analysis and commentary, please see Trader Dan’s website at www.traderdan.net
With Gold Just 1% From Record Nominal High of $1,444/oz The Risk Of A Dollar Crisis Increases By Day
Submitted by Tyler Durden on 03/22/2011 08:19 -0400The U.S. dollar and yen are under pressure again today while gold and silver have taken breathers after yesterday’s gains (see table). Rather than gold and silver rising in price, we are seeing the continual devaluation of the U.S. dollar, the yen and all fiat currencies and thus their prices falling against the precious metals. Incredibly, the dollar has lost 7.5% of its value in less than 3 months (since January 7th 2011) and more than 17% in just 8 months since August 2010. Hence the nominal record highs in gold and silver. The volatility and sharp falls in the dollar are leading to deepening inflation throughout the world (as seen in the UK inflation rate of 4.4% today). Thus, the dollar’s safe haven status is being increasingly questioned. Many market participants are worried because the dollar continues to fall despite the real risks of a recurrence of the Eurozone sovereign debt crisis, a wider military conflict in North Africa and the Middle East and a nuclear catastrophe in Japan.
![[Most Recent Quotes from www.kitco.com]](http://www.kitconet.com/charts/metals/gold/t24_au_en_usoz_2.gif)
![[Most Recent Quotes from www.kitco.com]](http://www.kitconet.com/charts/metals/silver/t24_ag_en_usoz_2.gif)
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