Sunday, May 8, 2011

David Stockman: "It Will Take A Major Dislocation In The Bond Market" To Wake Up America 




It is no secret that David Stockman, former budget director in the Reagan administration, has long been a vocal opponent of the crash course America has found itself on courtesy of record debt. In this Bloomberg interview, he presents his latest take on U.S. fiscal policy and the outlook for agreement between Congress and the Obama administration on a deficit and spending reduction plan. Suffice to say, he is not a fan of either the republican or democrat plan, and is convinced both sides are playing nothing less than class warfare to promote their flawed programs. "I think the people would respond if they knew the fact, and if they'd been were told the truth, but they haven't been, they've been lied to for the last 10-20 years by both sides saying that we can live beyond our means, new entitlements, new tax cuts constantly, tax stimulus for everything that we could imagine, and as a result of that the country doesn't know that sacrifice is going to be required, and that everyone is going to have to give up something." On the recent "spending cut" much touted by Washington: "even this noisy $39 billion package cutback, that was all flimflam and swindle: there wasn't $39 billion in that, maybe there was $5 billion at best, and had anybody in the business community reported that they had $39 billion in a package that was this fraudulent they would have every prosecutor in the country and the SEC on their tail right now." And on the much endorsed by Zero Hedge Tobin tax: "We out to put a major tax on transactions on Wall Street, because Wall Street is turning into a high speed casino. We need to start thinking about new revenue sources and that is one of them." So what will finally awake America? "I think it's going to take a major dislocation in the bond market, a real conflaguration on the part of the people who have to buy this debt, before the country wakes up." Of course, if the Fed is able to sell virtually unlimited Long-Term Treasury puts, the synthetic push on sellers will never abate and the Fed can manipulate the curve virtually in perpetuity, or until such time as those buying Treasury vol protection, ironically, decide it makes no more sense to hedge against a curve yield surge.

 

Biggest market rigger is government itself

 

Weekly Chartology And Why Goldman's Clients Are "Confused" By The "Weimar Rally" 


The just announced cut to both Q1 and H2 GDP by Goldman, as had been anticipated, has so far not dented the enthusiasm of chief equity strategist David Kostin, who just paradoxically keeps his 2011 yer end S&P estimate at 1,500 (and 12 month estimate at 1,525). Obviously, the economy no longer serves as the object "lead indicated" by the stock market, now that H2 GDP will eventually be cut to below "stall speed" in effect becoming a triple dip which will be rescued merely by one more episode of QE. And as Kostin points out, "confusion" is the key word prevailing among Goldman's clients who for two years now are unable to reconcile the ever weaker economy (absent monetary and fiscal stimulus) and the stock market. Actually, we will save Goldman's client lots of money in soft dollars and commission by calling it like it is: the Weimar Rally. From Kostin: "Investors are understandably perplexed regarding how to position portfolios given the cross currents of information. GDP growth during 1Q registered a lackluster 1.8% while sales, margins and earnings results positively surprised across most S&P 500 sectors. Analysts subsequently boosted EPS estimates for 2Q, 3Q and 4Q but the ISM manufacturing index appears to have peaked in February and is now decelerating. A high level of ISM growth favors cyclical parts of the equity market while a slowing rate of change signals investors should shift to more defensive sectors, although timing the rotation is not urgent."




NIA On Why America's College Bubble Is Next To Burst 


For those of you hunting for bubbles, and wondering why the Federal government is the biggest source of credit in each and every G.19 release, here is a hint of what's coming next from an NIA press release: "The current college education bubble is one of the largest bubbles in U.S. history. The college bubble has been fueled by the U.S. government's willingness to give out cheap and easy student loans to anybody who applied for them, regardless of if they will ever have the ability to pay the loans back. Student loan debt in America is now larger than credit card debt, but unlike credit card debt, student loan debt can't be discharged in bankruptcy. During the 1970s, college students were able to afford their own college tuition without getting into any debt, simply by working a part-time job year round or by working a full-time job during the summer. Not only that, but most college students were also able to afford their own car and a small apartment. However, since 1970, Americans have experienced a 50% decline in their standard of living due to the Federal Reserve's dangerous and destructive monetary policies. You never heard of parents setting up college savings accounts for their children 40 years ago, but thanks to the Federal Reserve, this has become the norm."




Osama bin Laden's Last Will 


In the name of Allah the merciful the forgiver,
[This is the] Will of a poor man to his god in the highest, Osama bin Mohammad bin Ladin,
Thanks be to Allah, and peace and prayers over the messenger of Allah, his family and all his companions. We implore his justice and guidance and call on him for assistance from our evil and ill deeds. He whom Allah guides, none can lead astray and he whom Allah leads astray, has no guide. And I testify that there is no god be he alone, ascribe no partners to him and I testify that Mohammad is his slave and messenger. We beg him in the highest to accept us in martyrdom along with the righteous of his worshipers and to perish us as Muslims.
Allah had commanded us that in case death approached to leave a will for both parents, relatives and all Muslims […] and whatever saddens them, saddens me and Allah attests to what I am saying.




Portugal Propaganda Video Of The Day, Or Why "We Don't Need You To Help Us Help Ourselves" 



Now that Greece and Europe are hanging on by a thread with relations frayed beyond any chance of reconciliation, all eyes move to Portugal which will soon see "speculative" articles written about it by Der Spiegel as Europe's bloodlust moves from one PIIGy to another. Below we present Portugal attempt to preempt popular hatred of being on the bailout wagon by releasing what can only be described as the most pathetic, see thru propaganda video conceivable.


On The Psychoanalysis Of Money: "Heads and Tails" - Money As A Poison Center 


And now for something different...



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