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In The News Today

Posted: Sep 30 2010     By: Jim Sinclair      Post Edited: September 30, 2010 at 2:48 pm
Filed under: In The News

Jim Sinclair’s Commentary
Something here is going on that does not pass the smell test.

Emanuel to Depart White House for Chicago Mayoral Bid By MICHAEL D. SHEAR AND JEFF ZELENY
1:22 p.m. | Updated President Obama will give his chief of staff, Rahm Emanuel, a send-off Friday as Mr. Emanuel officially announces his departure from the West Wing to run for mayor of Chicago, officials familiar with the decision said.
The White House press secretary, Robert Gibbs, at his daily briefing on Thursday afternoon said that the president would give two personnel announcements on Friday morning from the East Room of the White House. Mr. Gibbs, admitting that he was being purposely “oblique,” would not confirm whether the announcements would concern Mr. Emanuel.
The two officials, who declined to be named in advance of the official announcement, confirmed that Mr. Obama planned to name Pete Rouse, a senior adviser, to replace Mr. Emanuel. Mr. Rouse has been at the president’s side since Mr. Obama arrived in Washington nearly six years ago as a senator, serving as his chief of staff.
Mr. Rouse will not be an interim appointment, but rather will formally take over Mr. Emanuel’s title. While Mr. Rouse has expressed reservations about holding the chief of staff job for an extended period, he has agreed to do the job – for now.
Mr. Rouse has a low profile outside the White House and across Washington, but he is extraordinarily close to the president and is respected inside the West Wing and on Capitol Hill, where he was known as the “101st Senator” in his role as an adviser to Senator Tom Daschle of South Dakota, then the Democratic leader.
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Jim Sinclair’s Commentary
Strategic metals, rare earths and materials are weapons that can close down the high tech industry of any country that China wishes.
Maybe it would be better if the dopes in the US legislative got off the bash China kick they have been playing on.

Pentagon Loses Control of Bombs to China Metal Monopoly By Peter Robison and Gopal Ratnam – Sep 29, 2010 3:49 PM MT
A senior manager at a company that churns out metals routinely used in U.S. smart bombs pauses in mid-sentence when his phone rings: a Wall Street stockbroker looking for information. He makes a note to have an assistant call back — someone who is fluent in English, not just Chinese.
“It’s a seller’s market now,” says Bai Baosheng, 43, puffing a cigarette in his office in Baotou, China, where his company sells bags of powder containing a metallic element known as neodymium, vital in tiny magnets that direct the fins of bombs dropped by U.S. Air Force jets in Afghanistan.
A generation after Chinese leader Deng Xiaoping made mastering neodymium and 16 other elements known as rare earths a priority, China dominates the market, with far-reaching effects ranging from global trade friction to U.S. job losses and threats to national security.
The U.S. handed its main economic rival power to dictate access to these building blocks of modern weapons by ceding control of prices and supply, according to dozens of interviews with industry executives, congressional leaders and policy experts. China in July reduced rare-earth export quotas for the rest of the year by 72 percent, sending prices up more than sixfold for some elements.
Military officials are only now conducting an inventory of where and how U.S. suppliers use the obscure but essential substances — including those that silence the whoosh of Boeing Co. helicopter blades, direct Raytheon Co. missiles and target guns in General Dynamics Corp. tanks.
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House passes bill targeting China’s yuan policy. The House easily passed legislation to penalize China’s foreign exchange practices, sending a powerful signal to Beijing to boost the value of its currency but risking a backlash that could harm U.S. companies and consumers. The measure allows but does not require the U.S. to levy tariffs on countries that undervalue their currencies. Chinese Premier Wen Jiabao has said China would suffer "major social upheaval" if it acquiesces to demands for a 20%-40% rise in the yuan. Earlier today China warned that the bill could seriously affect bilateral ties.




Jim Sinclair’s Commentary
Salvos from the currency war front. The US legislative has made the kick off. Here is the 90 yard return.

China criticises weak U.S. dollar policy Wed Sep 29, 2010 12:15pm EDT
GENEVA, Sept 29 (Reuters) – China said the United States should take action to stabilise the dollar, criticising Washington’s expansionary monetary policy for weakening the currency despite its key role in the global financial system.
The comments by a Chinese official at a meeting of the World Trade Organization came as the U.S. House of Representatives was set to pass a bill putting pressure on China to let the yuan rise faster. [ID:nN28172488]
China’s ambassador to the WTO, Sun Zhenyu, told a review of U.S. trade policy that the dollar played a unique role in the international monetary system while U.S. policy had a significant impact globally.
"We are very much concerned about how the U.S. would take practical and responsible measures to prevent the dollar glut and maintain the stability of the currency," Sun said.
China had raised the same question at the last U.S. trade review in 2008 but had not received an answer.
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Jim Sinclair’s Commentary
This must result in QE to infinity in the entire Western World.
Thank you OTC derivative manufacturers and distributors that are still busy at their business.

Spain: Ten million workers take part in general strike By Paul Mitchell
30 September 2010
Nearly 70 percent of Spanish workers10 milliontook part in Wednesdays general strike. In some sectors, such as mining, metal, auto manufacture, electronic, fishing and other industries, participation was nearly 100 percent. The movement also encompassed many self-employed workers and small businesses.
Although the government tried to downplay the effects of the strike, the national grid operator Red Electrica Corp. said that electricity consumption was down by 20 percent.
The strike dealt a blow to business leaders, politicians and the media who claimed it would not be well supported. But without the minimum service levels agreed by the unions, which allowed the government and local authorities to determine how many airplanes, trains and buses had to be provided, the country would have ground to a complete halt. Union leaders bent over backwards during the day to show that they were complying with minimum service agreements.
Workers went on strike in opposition to the austerity measures and anti-labour reforms implemented by the Spanish Socialist Workers Party (PSOE) government of President Jos頚apatero.
The strike was called by the Communist Party-aligned Comisiones Obreras (CC.OO) and the PSOE-dominated Unieneral del Trabajo (UGT) trade union federations. It is the second major protest this year that the unions have been obliged to call. But it only went ahead after the reforms had become law, refuting claims by union leaders that they could be watered down by Congress.
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Jim Sinclair’s Commentary
Smile, you are on candid camera no matter where you are or go.

U.S. Tries to Make It Easier to Wiretap the Internet By CHARLIE SAVAGE
Published: September 27, 2010
WASHINGTON Federal law enforcement and national security officials are preparing to seek sweeping new regulations for the Internet, arguing that their ability to wiretap criminal and terrorism suspects is going dark as people increasingly communicate online instead of by telephone.
Essentially, officials want Congress to require all services that enable communications including encrypted e-mail transmitters like BlackBerry, social networking Web sites like Facebook and software that allows direct peer to peer messaging like Skype to be technically capable of complying if served with a wiretap order. The mandate would include being able to intercept and unscramble encrypted messages.
The bill, which the Obama administration plans to submit to lawmakers next year, raises fresh questions about how to balance security needs with protecting privacy and fostering innovation. And because security services around the world face the same problem, it could set an example that is copied globally.
James X. Dempsey, vice president of the Center for Democracy and Technology, an Internet policy group, said the proposal had huge implications and challenged fundamental elements of the Internet revolution including its decentralized design.
They are really asking for the authority to redesign services that take advantage of the unique, and now pervasive, architecture of the Internet, he said. They basically want to turn back the clock and make Internet services function the way that the telephone system used to function.
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Jim Sinclair’s Commentary
Here is a link to a map of failed banks that was put together by the Wall Street Journal.
Click here to view a map of failed banks from January 2008 to the present


Jim Sinclair’s Commentary
This is evidence that the real screw up is in the construction of the securitized debt of these same mortgages.

J.P. Morgan will halt foreclosures By Ariana Eunjung Cha
Washington Post Staff Writer
Thursday, September 30, 2010
J.P. Morgan Chase, one of the nation’s leading banks, announced Wednesday that it will freeze foreclosures in about half the country because of flawed paperwork, a move that Wall Street analysts said will pressure the rest of the industry to follow suit.
The bank’s decision will affect 56,000 borrowers in 23 states where allegations of forged documents and signatures and other similar problems are being used to try to overturn court-ordered evictions. Yet the impact may be much broader, given J.P. Morgan’s stature in the industry. If other banks adopt the same approach, the foreclosure process in many parts of the country will grind to a halt.
Officials at Fitch Ratings, a credit-rating firm that measures the health of companies, said the "defects" found in foreclosure documents at J.P. Morgan are industry-wide. Underscoring that concern, Fitch said it is considering whether to lower the grades it gives to the mortgage servicing divisions of the nation’s largest lenders.
"Over the next few weeks, we expect to see more and more companies come out with similar announcements," said Diane Pendley, a managing director at Fitch.
The paperwork problems at J.P. Morgan mirror those uncovered last week at another large mortgage lender, Ally Financial. But J.P. Morgan’s decision is expected to have a much greater effect on the industry because it is held in high regard by its peers. By contrast, Ally, formerly known as GMAC, is still under the cloud of a $17 billion federal bailout package that it has been unable to pay back.
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Hourly Action In Gold From Trader Dan

Posted: Sep 30 2010     By: Dan Norcini      Post Edited: September 30, 2010 at 2:37 pm
Filed under: Trader Dan Norcini
Dear CIGAs,
It was a rather strange day today in the commodity world with the Dollar seeing a bit of a bounce but with crude oil breaking an upside resistance level even as a goodly portion of the rest of the commodity complex was experiencing some hefty fund selling. The grains in particular were whacked by an unexpected and rather confusing USDA stocks report which sent corn and wheat sharply lower as a mass exodus of speculative fund longs occurred early in both markets. Sugar was slammed quite hard and even cotton did not seem to get much help from overnight news that China’s cotton crop might be hit by some freezing weather. Palladium notched a 28 month high before it too saw a wave of selling surface.
Gold and silver had set fresh highs in overnight trade with gold hitting yet another all time record while silver too scored another 30 year high above $22.10. As the commodity selling wave hit during the US session, gold and silver were also taken down but gold did see buyers come in on the dip towards $1,300, the former capping level by the bullion bank crowd. The push back from session lows in gold which at one point today was down $13 is most impressive. It ended the pit trading session down only a minor amount for the day! Bulls are for the most part refusing to run and that is against a backdrop of the HUI losing the initial support level of 510.
Both bonds and equities were down in tandem which is part of the “weird” nature of today’s trading session but the bonds are holding fairly well even after losing their battle to hold above last week’s high.
Looking at the chart patterns across a wide number of commodity markets today leaves me with the distinct impression that can be summed up in one or perhaps two words: “Confusion” or “Uncertainty”.
The catalyst for all this was the release of two data pieces – one was the Chicago PMI which came in better than expected (60.4 vs 56.7) while the other was a combination of a GDP report of second quarter growth at 1.7 versus an expected 1.6. That had some rethinking the timing or even the necessity of the Fed’s QE2 engagement. It did appear from the price action as the session wore on that many are not quite that confident about the overall strength of the economy. One thing is for certain, it was not a quiet day in most of the markets as volatility was on display in ample portion sizes.
The technical take on gold is pretty much the same as we have been seeing of late. The bullion banks attempt to cap at intervals of $15 dollars. When that fails, they retreat to the next multiple of “5”, dig in, and try again. Pit locals are piggybacking the bullion banks and when the buyers do not run en masse and price refuses to break down, these locals cover and price moves back up. This has been the same pattern for some time now and as long as it continues (the key being the willingness of the bulls to stand their ground and refuse to be stampeded) prices are going to continue moving up.
Considering that not only is it the last day of the month but also the last day of the third quarter, for the bulls to stand this resolute is remarkable. One typically sees the side that has gained the victory over the past month taking some money off the table, particularly if it is managed money as they like to book some paper gains to show their clients how well they have done on the upcoming statements.  In the case of gold, with managed money heavily on the long side, to see only this amount of selling which did meet with buying at this time is unusual.
Open interest dropped in gold yesterday with once again the chief culprit being a drawdown in the October contract. That is not a heavily traded month and is heading into delivery this week. Between the two day’s unwind we have seen about 18,000 contracts closed out in that month. I still suspect that shorts do not want to have to stand for delivery and that is why they are exiting in such a hurry. They did not roll into the December yesterday either which I also find interesting. I want to continue monitoring this to see if we can glean anything by all these antics.
The monthly charts of gold and of silver are most impressive. I will get a copy of the gold chart up later on this afternoon.
The Dollar is getting a bit of a bounce today but considering the “happy” news about the Chicago PMI, the GDP numbers and the mild drop in initial unemployment claims, it ain’t much of a bounce. The Yen is within a mere hairsbreadth of the point at which the BOJ intervened. As said previously here on this site, they either intervene and knock it back down or they are finished as a market force to be reckoned with as the spec crowd will have called their bluff. What  sea change that would be if the BOJ was defeated by the Fed’s QE2 and the Yen was going to soar onto new heights.
There is some chatter from the former “Mr. Yen” that intervention is a waste of time because it is not being done in coordination with the Fed nor with their consent and ultimately will prove to be a waste of time. Should his views hold sway and begin to gain a majority, it would signal that just like the Swiss Central Bank, the Bank of Japan has given up trying to fight the sinking Dollar. The implications for gold are obvious as it would remove a bit of further support under the USDX and probably allow the Dollar to quickly break 78 and head down towards 75 quite rapidly. Stay tuned. We might just yet see them in the market this evening.
Click chart to enlarge today’s hourly action in Gold in PDF format with commentary from Trader Dan Norcini