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What Was Safe is Now Risky… and Vice-Versa

By: Jeff Berwick - 14 September, 2010 Gold, today, hit an all-time record high and the average man on the street still owns zero physical gold. Before this is all over everyone will know and understand that holding something of tangible value in their hand is much better than holding government debt paper certificates. It is only too bad that for the majority of people this understanding will only come once it is too late. Full Story

 

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In The News Today

Posted: Sep 14 2010     By: Jim Sinclair      Post Edited: September 14, 2010 at 4:30 pm
Filed under: In The News
Jim Sinclair’s Commentary
The Sheeple are getting some of the message, and doing exactly the wrong thing.
This is the ultimate jumping out of the frying pan directly into the fire.


Nervous Americans Want Easy Access to Their Cash Friday, September 10, 2010 
By Pallavi Gogoi, Associated Press
(AP) – Americans want to be close to their cash.
People are bailing out of bank certificates of deposit and parking their cash in checking and savings accounts that earn little or no interest but also don’t exact penalties for early withdrawal.
It’s another signal of how nervous Americans are about their finances as the U.S. economy struggles. Consumers are stuck with few options to make their money work. The Standard & Poor’s 500 is down 0.5 percent for the year, one big reason why people have pulled a net $145.3 billion out of mutual funds in the first eight months of the year, according to Lipper Inc.
"At times of uncertainty, there is a natural human tendency to stay liquid and have money easily accessible," says Dan Geller, executive vice president at financial data analysis firm Market Rates Insight.
The firm’s analysis of domestic banks insured by the Federal Deposit Insurance Corporation, found CD deposits declined by $200 billion in the first six months of the year. Deposits in checking, savings and money market accounts rose by $171 billion.
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Jim Sinclair’s Commentary
More one liners from John at Shadow Stats.
These are teasers compared to the information available when you subscribe to this must-have service.
- Boosted by Downside Revisions to July Retail Sales, August’s 0.4% Gain Still Was Not Statistically Meaningful
- Net of Higher Food and Gas Prices, "Core" Retail Sales Increased Less Than 0.1%
http://www.shadowstats.com/

 

Hourly Action In Gold From Trader Dan

Posted: Sep 14 2010     By: Dan Norcini      Post Edited: September 14, 2010 at 2:10 pm
Filed under: Trader Dan Norcini
Dear Friends,
Today is a case of being careful what you wish for – the Fed has pulled out all the stops in an attempt to avoid a deflationary trap tied to the inception of the credit crisis that broke loose in the summer of 2008. Since then they have flooded the system with liquidity through a process dubiously referred to as Quantitative Easing. They have also loaded their balance sheet with worthless loan paper and shoved interest rates practically to zero.
Not to be outdone, our illustrious administration has saddled us with enough debt at the federal level to last three generations all in the name of “stimulus”.
The result – they have gotten their wish – sadly for all of us, who actually have to live with their damn stupidity, they have let slip the dogs of inflation who have bared their fangs and are now ravenously devouring the hopes and dreams of the middle class in this nation.
The funny money has made its way into the commodity sector driving food prices to unseemly high levels once again just as what happened in 2008. Corn is now within spitting distance of $5.00, wheat is more than $7.00, soybeans are over $10, sugar is over $0.24/pound, cotton is closing in on $1.00, coffee is up near $2.00 pound wholesale ( a 13 year high), cattle are just shy of $1.00/pound, bellies are trading over $1.50/pound for fresh product. In short, the consumer is on the verge of watching his or her’s disposal income decimated by high food prices at the very time that a record number of Americans are on food stamps and are either unemployed or underemployed.
I shudder to say it but based on what I can see of the price action across the commodity sector today, an evil has now been loosed upon the land that portends the eventual ruin of the middle class.
The only bit of saving grace is that energy prices have not YET begun moving up alongside the rest of the commodity complex. I think it is only a matter of time however before the crude complex gets involved. When it does, home heating bills, home cooling bills, industrial energy costs and gasoline prices will join the list of soaring costs nationwide.
The one-two knockout punch of higher soaring food cost and higher energy costs will finish off the consumer whose wages have been stagnant for longer than I can now remember.
Make no mistake about what you seeing, especially with the price action of gold and silver. Both metals are signifying a loss of confidence in the Dollar and particularly in its management team.  It is ironic is it not, that any supposedly friendly economic news now results in waves of Dollar selling whereupon in times not that far past, any negative news yielded a huge inflow into the Dollar as a safe haven. Good news – Dollar goes down; Bad news – Dollar goes up.
Now to the technical picture in gold –
Fund buying came in such torrents that it overcame the bullion bank wall of offers near and just above $1,260. As those crumbled, opportunistic shorts that like to piggyback the banks were forced to cover. Their buying engendered more fresh buying allowing gold to not only take out $12,65 but run past $1,275 setting a new lifetime high in the process.
Open interest is at a relatively low level even with this breakout meaning that this rally has legs.
We are now in uncharted territory for gold so resistance levels are being projected by other means of former peaks. It appears that we should see some efforts to stall the rise near $1,282 – $1,285. Failure there and gold will be at $1,300 before one can blink.
Silver took out critical resistance at $20.50 total but just missed closing above that level. Once it does so, it is off to $21. A push through $21.50 and it should move up towards $23.
The HUI is finally moving up showing very good strength here near midday as it has bested stubborn resistance near the very tough 500 level, a level which I might add has kept it in check for more than a year now. If it can CLOSE above 500, it is poised to make a run at the all time high just shy of 520. If it can push through that level, the longsuffering gold and silver share owners are going to finally see their patience rewarded with an acceleration the long term uptrend in the cards.
The Dollar crashed through what should have been a floor of support near the 82 level as if the boards were made of rotten, termite-infested timbers. It is now headed to 80, where if it fails, the ill winds of inflation blowing through the economy are only going to intensify.
Click chart to enlarge today’s hourly action in Gold in PDF format with commentary from Trader Dan Norcini

 

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Whether You Like It Or Not, It Is Happening

Posted: Sep 14 2010     By: Jim Sinclair      Post Edited: September 14, 2010 at 11:52 am
Filed under: General Editorial

Dear Extended Family,
Many emails have come in saying there is no way gold can go to $1650 by January. My response to those people is you are WRONG, it can.
Many emails have come in saying the dollar is a safe haven and that I am wrong, it will never see .7200 and lower. My response to those people is you are WRONG, it can.
Many were offended for some reason when I drew the comparison between now and 1979. My response to those people is you are WRONG, the comparison is valid.
I am on my way to the Middle East and Africa, but will not be out of contact.
Respectfully,
Jim


Jim Sinclair’s Commentary
More one liners from John at Shadow Stats.
These are teasers compared to the information available when you subscribe to this must-have service.
- Boosted by Downside Revisions to July Retail Sales, August’s 0.4% Gain Still Was Not Statistically Meaningful
- Net of Higher Food and Gas Prices, "Core" Retail Sales Increased Less Than 0.1%
http://www.shadowstats.com/

Jim’s Mailbox

Posted: Sep 14 2010     By: Jim Sinclair      Post Edited: September 14, 2010 at 1:37 pm
Filed under: Jim's Mailbox
Gold Prices Surge, Top $1,270 CIGA Eric
Gold prices were popping Tuesday as investors turned to gold as safe-haven asset after a slew of disappointing economic data.
What about the dollar’s safe haven status? This gold hype will attacked by the spinsters, agnostic about gold at much lower prices, through the use of labels, fear, and misdirection. Meanwhile, the secular trend continues to plow ahead without or without the spinsters support.
Jim is right, gold doesn’t need consensus approval to run.
Many emails have come in saying there is no way gold can go to $1650 by January. My response to those people is you are WRONG, it can.
Many emails have come in saying the dollar is a safe haven and that I am wrong, it will never see .7200 and lower. My response to those people is you are WRONG, it can.
Many were offended for some reason when I drew the comparison between now and 1979. My response to those people is you are WRONG, the comparison is valid.
I am on my way to the Middle East and Africa, but will not be out of contact.
Respectfully,
Jim
Careful about saying never to an unexpected run. I have said this many time before, the setup while not identical eerily similar.
Gold, London P.M. Fixed:
Back on July 10th, I finished the Bullish Money Flows in Gold with the following question: Are you ready for the unexpected?
Well, are you?
Source: finance.yahoo.com
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