unbelievable movement of silver in comex vaults/high number of delivery notices/zero activity in gold:
House GOP Repeals 'ObamaCare'
Posted: Jan 19 2011 By: Dan Norcini Post Edited: January 19, 2011 at 5:26 pm
Filed under: Trader Dan Norcini
Dear Friends,
I am posting two charts today of the US Dollar – one in the form of the USDX which is what I typically detail; the other is the Broad Dollar Index which I continue to track but have not posted in some time now as I have been waiting for a larger pattern to unfold.
The Broad Dollar Index is as its name aptly describes it, a broad measure of the Dollar against a much larger basket of currencies that the USDX and in my opinion provides a bit better measurement of the Dollar’s standing on the global stage than the narrower USDX.
Both charts are showing a breakdown of support levels which while significant still need some additional confirmation on a weekly basis.
The Broad Dollar Index chart is of great concern as it has failed to recapture a broken support level and looks to be set for a downside test of the next important level of chart support. That particular level near 97.50 is the last line between it and a potential move towards the 2008 low made just prior to the eruption of the credit crisis and which was also a 13 year low. I do not even want to contemplate what will happen should that level give way.
What appears to be happening in the Forex markets at the present time is that as fears or concerns regarding the condition of European sovereign debt issues fade, the Dollar is encountering selling pressure as its perceived “safe haven” status becomes less desirable with traders focusing on structural problems in the US. Those problems were brought to the forefront of traders’ minds with the release of today’s pitiful housing starts number which came in lower than many analysts were expecting.
It also did not help matters that our “friends” at Goldman did not impress the markets with their earnings numbers.
It seems to me that at least for today, traders were looking at housing numbers, poor bank earnings, poor employment numbers and of course the ever present mind boggling amounts of QE and just decided that they wanted no part of the Dollar. If this psyche continues to take deeper hold, the greenback could find itself being jilted by its recent lovers and back on the skids once again.
Such an occurrence would engender further algorithm related buying of commodities, which, while corn and beans were noticeably weak today ( wheat pushed through the $8.00 level before closing just below it) as was copper and even crude, would continue to feed into the inflation psychology which is gaining traction. I noticed that in spite of weakness across a decent number of commodity markets today, the CCI, Continuous Commodity Index, pushed up to yet another all time high before moving a tad lower off of that level.
I should also note that while lumber prices were a tad lower today off the poor housing number, they are still well off their lows made last year. Even this market is apparently not immune from the “buy commodites” strategy being employed by the hedge funds.
Gold and silver are both still range bound. I will continue to monitor both markets for evidence that is changing.
The HUI is lower once again, this time from spillover weakness in the broader S&P and lack of strong upside in the metals. The charts are showing it in a oversold position but thus far it cannot seem to muster the strength necessary to flip some of those indicators into generating buy signals. It would not take much to do so however as some of the indicators I track are at the lowest level since February of 2010.
Click either chart to enlarge in PDF format with commentary from Trader Dan Norcini
Austerity In America: 22 Signs That It Is Already Here And That It Is Going To Be Very Painful
I am posting two charts today of the US Dollar – one in the form of the USDX which is what I typically detail; the other is the Broad Dollar Index which I continue to track but have not posted in some time now as I have been waiting for a larger pattern to unfold.
The Broad Dollar Index is as its name aptly describes it, a broad measure of the Dollar against a much larger basket of currencies that the USDX and in my opinion provides a bit better measurement of the Dollar’s standing on the global stage than the narrower USDX.
Both charts are showing a breakdown of support levels which while significant still need some additional confirmation on a weekly basis.
The Broad Dollar Index chart is of great concern as it has failed to recapture a broken support level and looks to be set for a downside test of the next important level of chart support. That particular level near 97.50 is the last line between it and a potential move towards the 2008 low made just prior to the eruption of the credit crisis and which was also a 13 year low. I do not even want to contemplate what will happen should that level give way.
What appears to be happening in the Forex markets at the present time is that as fears or concerns regarding the condition of European sovereign debt issues fade, the Dollar is encountering selling pressure as its perceived “safe haven” status becomes less desirable with traders focusing on structural problems in the US. Those problems were brought to the forefront of traders’ minds with the release of today’s pitiful housing starts number which came in lower than many analysts were expecting.
It also did not help matters that our “friends” at Goldman did not impress the markets with their earnings numbers.
It seems to me that at least for today, traders were looking at housing numbers, poor bank earnings, poor employment numbers and of course the ever present mind boggling amounts of QE and just decided that they wanted no part of the Dollar. If this psyche continues to take deeper hold, the greenback could find itself being jilted by its recent lovers and back on the skids once again.
Such an occurrence would engender further algorithm related buying of commodities, which, while corn and beans were noticeably weak today ( wheat pushed through the $8.00 level before closing just below it) as was copper and even crude, would continue to feed into the inflation psychology which is gaining traction. I noticed that in spite of weakness across a decent number of commodity markets today, the CCI, Continuous Commodity Index, pushed up to yet another all time high before moving a tad lower off of that level.
I should also note that while lumber prices were a tad lower today off the poor housing number, they are still well off their lows made last year. Even this market is apparently not immune from the “buy commodites” strategy being employed by the hedge funds.
Gold and silver are both still range bound. I will continue to monitor both markets for evidence that is changing.
The HUI is lower once again, this time from spillover weakness in the broader S&P and lack of strong upside in the metals. The charts are showing it in a oversold position but thus far it cannot seem to muster the strength necessary to flip some of those indicators into generating buy signals. It would not take much to do so however as some of the indicators I track are at the lowest level since February of 2010.
Click either chart to enlarge in PDF format with commentary from Trader Dan Norcini
Austerity In America: 22 Signs That It Is Already Here And That It Is Going To Be Very Painful
![[Most Recent Quotes from www.kitco.com]](http://www.kitconet.com/charts/metals/gold/t24_au_en_usoz_2.gif)
![[Most Recent Quotes from www.kitco.com]](http://www.kitconet.com/charts/metals/silver/t24_ag_en_usoz_2.gif)
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