Posted: Jan 18 2011 By: Jim Sinclair Post Edited: January 18, 2011 at 8:14 pm
Filed under: General Editorial
Dear CIGAs,
Firstly, to finish off on the ultra short term, here is the chart I showed a couple of days ago:
Note the small a-b-c correction from $1420. The A leg was from $1420 to $1363, a decline of $57. If the C wave is the same size, a decline of $57 from $1412.50 takes us to $1355.50.
Yesterday the PM fix was $1360.50 and the morning fix $1357.50.
Conclusion: gold has either already finished the correction or requires one minor drop below yesterday’s fixings to finish it.
Turning to the longer term picture, I sent you the following weekly price chart in mid 2009.
This is what has happened since then:
I have numbered the minor waves and concluded that wave 5 is extending. This opinion is based on the size of the corrections since the wave 4 low at $1058. The following analysis of the minor waves and their relative proportions should make this quite clear:
Wave 1 712.5 to 989.0 +276.5 +38.8%
Wave 2 989.0 to 870.5 – 118.5 -12.0%
Wave 3 870.5 to 1212.5 +342.0 +39.3%
Wave 4 1212.5 to 1058.0 -154.5 -12.7%
Wave 5 is extending – see analysis below.
Note: The similarity of the 12% declines above indicate that they are part of the same impulse wave. The much smaller declines of 7.9% and 5.9% are evidence that wave 5 is extending.
Extended wave 5:
Wave 5.i 1058.0 to 1256.0 +198 +18.7%
Wave 5.ii 1256.0 to 1157.0 - 99 - 7.9%
Wave 5.iii 1157.0 to 1421.0 +264 +22.8%
Wave 5.iv 1421.0 to 1337.5 -83.5 - 5.9%
Wave 5.v 1337.5 to 1642.0 +305 +22.8% (forecast – assumes the same % gain as 5.iii)
Total 5 1058.0 to 1642.0 +584 +55.2%
If we assume that 5.v is an average of the 5.i and 5.iii gains of 18.7% and 22.8%, say 20%, the target for 5.v would be $1604. One further possibility is that the gain in wave 5 equals the overall gain in waves 1 through 3, i.e. $1212.5 from $712.5 = $500. This provides a target of $1058 + $500 = $1558.
This concludes the end of intermediate wave I of Major Three. The decline to follow the peak of wave I, (the peak being somewhere between $1558 and $1642), should be of a magnitude of between 16% to 22%.
I think that we can conclude that your $1650 forecast will come close to achievement during the up-move which should start this week.
Best wishes,
Alf Fields
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