Tuesday, January 18, 2011

Forget Food Riots In Africa, Simon Black Says The Canary In The Inflationary Coal Mine Is In Southeast Asia




Laos, with its vast resources and small population, might loosely be considered an agricultural version of Kuwait. But Laos is nowhere near as wealthy, since oil is much pricier than rice, soy, and fish. Given its resources, it certainly seems ironic that the prices of staple foods in Laos, including rice, have soared in recent months, and that the Laotian government is now under intense pressure to "do something" about it. You expect this sort of thing to happen in Algeria, where the population is 35 million, where only 2% of the land is cultivated, and where agriculture makes up but a tiny percentage of the economy... but in Laos? This is akin to finding Kuwaitis unable to afford filling up their cars due to high gas prices. It's unthinkable. Thing is, it's not that there are food shortages in Laos; this isn't an issue where supply has failed to keep up with demand (thus resulting in rising prices). The price hikes are simply another indicator of monetary inflation causing severe price inflation, particularly in the developing world.

 

Insider Selling To Buying Ratio: DIV/0, As No Insiders Bought Any Stock In Prior Week


According to Bloomberg, in the week ended January 14 S&P 500 insiders sold $163 million worth of stock in 54 separate transactions. They bought exactly $0. That's right, in the last week, there was no insider purchasing. This is the first time in years (and possibly for ever) in which we have seen a week during which there was not one purchase by an insider. Surely, there is no need to comment on this result.




Life In America's Most Dangerous City About To Become "Living Hell" As Layoffs Of One Quarter Of Government Labor Force Begin


Life in Camden, NJ has never been fun. Frequently ranked as America's most dangerous city, whose only claim to fame are the corporate offices of Campbell's Soup, Camden is about to get even more dangerous as it is among the first to experience wholesale cuts to its government labor pool. Bloomberg reports that "as many as 383 workers, representing one-fourth of the local government's work force, are expected to lose their jobs, including about half the police force and one-third of the city's firefighters." It seems cuts have already commenced: "police officers are turning in their badges as part of deep municipal layoffs that began Tuesday." It's a good thing then that unlike the rest of the world, New Jersey does not (yet) have surging food inflation as otherwise one may be tempted to argue this could be a rather interesting hot spot in the future, especially with the local police force deciding to find better pastures even as it starts collecting 99 weeks of unemployment benefits.



States Warned of $2 Trillion Pensions Shortfall



Gold Update



Working For Profit to Prop Up the Economy




Frontrunning: January 18


  • One in three Hackney families too poor to heat their homes (Hackney Citizen)
  • Just modestly inflationary: Wheat Advances, Corn Reaches 18-Month High on Rising Demand, Lower Stocks (Bloomberg)
  • CDS continues to be the most predictive instrument around: Default Swaps Outshine Bonds at Highlighting European Stress (Bloomberg)
  • US public pensions face $2,500bn pensions shortfall (FT)
  • Borrowing Returns from the Future (Hussman)
  • Fed Officials Signal Growth Pickup Won't Alter Bond Purchases (Bloomberg)...oh so the stimulus induced pick up in fudged numbers will not lead to a removal of the stimulus? You don't say
  • Citi posts $1.3 billion profit as revenues fall (Reuters)
  • Apple's Cook Faces Product Development Challenge, Google (Bloomberg)
  • China’s lending hits new heights (FT)

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