Belarus Halts GOld Sales

Belarus Halts GOld Sales

Belarus Central Bank Halts Sales of Gold for Roubles

MINSK, April 15 (Reuters) - Belarus' central bank has stopped selling gold to local retail customers for Belarussian roubles it said on Friday, after demand for precious metals soared due to expectations of a currency devaluation.

The bank did not explain its decision.

Belarus is in talks with Russia on a $3 billion bailout package that Minsk hopes will help it avoid a painful devaluation of the rouble and offset the large current account deficit.

Belarussians bought 470 kilograms of gold from the central bank last month, up from 209 kilograms in January and February together, as they sought to protect their savings.

Analysts say that Belarus will have to eventually devalue the rouble by about 20-30 percent even if it receives aid from Moscow. However, the central bank has said it would not make any such moves until late April.

China Net Seller Of US Treasurys For Fourth Consecutive Month

Submitted by Tyler Durden on 04/15/2011 09:20 -0400

While we will present a comprehensive update of the just released TIC data shortly, the one chart worth noting is the sequentual change in holdings by foreign countries, and particularly one of them. Importantly, of the 4 largest holders of US debt, China, Japan, the UK and Oil Exporters, the latter 3 all saw an increase in their Treasury holdings, China continues selling Treasurys, with a 4th consecutive decline in its total holdings. That said, since TIC data is notoriously flawed and always incorrect, with at least half UK purchases being attributed to China post annual revisions (nobody knows who is responsible for the other half) it could well turn out that China was the only country actually buying US paper. We won't know for sure for at least a year from now following the next full year revision. And by then it likely won't matter.

In The News Today

Posted: Apr 14 2011     By: Jim Sinclair      Post Edited: April 15, 2011 at 2:18 am
Filed under: In The News

Jim Sinclair’s Commentary
Gold is debt. The debt is set. So too is the future of gold as it goes ballistic.




Jim Sinclair’s Commentary
And restructure they will as the entire Western World plays the QE game.

Notes From Underground: Hey Mr.Bernanke and/FED–GOD GAVE YOU TWO EARS and ONE MOUTH SO LISTEN MORE AND SPEAK LESS!

By Yra 

The news out of Europe today was not favorable for Greece as it was reported in the German paper DIE WELT that German Finance Minister Wolfgang Schäuble suggested Greece would need to restructure. Schäuble’s comments led the cost of interest rate on the DEBT of the peripherals to rise. By day’s end, Greek 2-year rates climbed to 16.8 percent. Portugal rose 25 basis points to 8.87 percent and Ireland increased 25 basis points to 8.20 percent. Spain’s bonds were also priced higher as rates increased 10 basis points. All in all, not a very splendid day for the European debt-stressed nations, but yet again the DOLLAR could not gain ground against the EURO as an initial DOLLAR rally faded quickly. It appears that some central banks are recalibrating reserves as even a DOLLAR rally seems to be so short-lived. The EURO has performed well even though it has the cloud of uncertainty overhanging its economic and political situation.
This weekend may see the European bailout plan be upended if the TRUE FINNS win an outright victory in Finland. If the anti-EURO PARTY were to win it would be a statement that the FINNISH CITIZENRY want no part of national bailouts by the ECB or any other mechanism. The reverberations in Berlin will be felt and Frau Merkel will be in an even more difficult political position as the anti-Europe forces within Germany will be louder and certainly stronger. If the TRUE FINNS win and the DOLLAR still fails to rally, it will be a signal that other factors are at work and the DOLLAR is suffering from some structural defects beyond the immediate radar screen.
As an example of the incomprehensibility of the rating agencies, Moritz Kraemer, head of S&P’s European debt-evaluation group stated: “Greece’s rating clearly signals that the risk of an eventual restructuring has risen over the last year or two. However, if you look at historical default rates at a BB rating level,the base case is still they would not restructure.” It never ceases to amaze me how the ratings agencies stay in business. If I could question Mr. Kraemer I would ask how much Greek debt S&P is buying for its investors. Again, a great many people talking and not many listening to what the market has to say.
Which brings me to the tonight’s headline. There is so much chatter coming from FED officials about transitory inflation and exit strategies and today we had PLOSSER speaking on the need for inflation targets. FED officials are busy telling the market what to think and do but the collective wisdom of the market  is telling the key policy makers that it is very worried about the effectiveness of the FED. Goldman’s two-day assault on the commodity market was reversed as GOLD and SILVER rallied to new recent highs and even the OIL market reversed. Yesterday, I cautioned that the DOLLAR‘s failure to rally was a warning that all is not right in the world.
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1 in 46...1 in 46 what? Take a guess...

On a side note, those who are thinking QE2 can stop, or QE3 will never come, think again. Take a hard look at the map below. You can probably figure out the dots. It is now 1 in 46. 1 in 46. 1 in 46. Wow.

Print some more my little Benjamin Shalom, print some more.

Gold Celebrates Complete Lack Of Inflation By Surging To New Record

Submitted by Tyler Durden on 04/15/2011 10:16 -0400

On one hand we have the BLS telling us core inflation declined to a ludicrous 0.1%, on the other hand Charles Plosser just had a soundbite, captured for posterity, that "high oil prices don't cause inflation", but luckily confirming there is someone not taking crazy pills, is the third hand, which takes gold to a new all time high of $1,481.46. We wonder, of the three hands, which one is right...

Get Ready for Federal Budget Gridlock

Posted: Apr 15 2011     By: Greg Hunter      Post Edited: April 15, 2011 at 10:37 am
Filed under: USAWatchdog.com
By Greg Hunter’s USAWatchdog.com

Dear CIGAs,

This week, President Obama gave a speech outlining his plan for long term deficit reduction.  He invited the Republican leadership for what many thought would be some sort of bi-partisan federal budget 2011 solution.  In reality, it was kind of a St. Valentine’s Day massacre because right off the bat, Mr. Obama pulled out the Presidential tommy-gun and started shooting. He said, “This debate over budgets and deficits is about more than just numbers on a page, more than just cutting and spending.  It’s about the kind of future we want.  It’s about the kind of country we believe in.”
Surprise, surprise.  The kind of country President Obama “believes in” is a lot different than the Republicans.  The President said the Republican plan “ends Medicare as we know it.” Sounds to me the President will play the class warfare card during the 2012 election season because he went on to say, “The top 1% saw their income rise by an average of more than a quarter of a million dollars each.  And that’s who needs to pay less taxes?” (Click here to read the entire text of the President’s deficit speech.) I can see why the President is playing to lower income people.  Recently, a poll revealed a majority of the poorest Americans no longer support Obama.  CNSNews.com reports, “President Barack Obama’s approval among the poorest Americans dropped to an all-time low of 48 percent last week, according to the Gallup poll, leaving the president with less-than-majority approval among all income brackets reported in Gallup’s presidential approval surveys.” (Click here to read the complete CNSNews.com story.)
The two big issues will be billions in Medicare and Medicaid cuts (especially Medicaid) and a $1 trillion tax increase.  I see these two issues as real sticking points.  Relative to the Republican plan, the President only wants to make small changes to health care entitlements.  Obama clearly wants health care entitlements to grow, not shrink (remember Obamacare?)  Also, the Democrats and Republicans came within an hour of shutting down the government over $35 billion in cuts.  There is no way the two parties are going to agree on some compromise on a trillion bucks in tax hikes.  These two issues alone spell budgetary gridlock.  House Budget Chairman Paul Ryan said the President’s speech was “excessively partisan” and “dramatically inaccurate.” These are not the kind of words you use when you are laying the groundwork for a compromise.  I am sure Congress will play chicken again, over the budget, in the government shutdown game.
I don’t know which party has the best plan, but I do know the U.S. is in deep financial trouble.  Gridlock is not going to help with dramatic and badly needed cuts in spending.  In March alone, the federal government spent 8 times more money than it took in.  The U.S. collected $128 billion and spent more than $1.1 trillion (or $1,100 billion!)  Neither party addressed the other new welfare plan we have started for crooked bankers who have ripped-off the country and caused the financial meltdown in 2008.  The latest outrage is the $220 million in bailout money given to the wives of two Morgan Stanley bankers.  (Click here to read the complete story.)
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Guest Post: Here's The Setup For The Con Of The Decade

Submitted by Tyler Durden on 04/15/2011 11:11 -0400

I described The Con of the Decade last July (2010). The Con makes me a heretic in the cult religion of Hyperinflation. I consider myself an agnostic about the destruction of the U.S. dollar and hyperinflation (basically the same thing), but my idea that hyperinflation is fundamantally a political process makes me a heretic. I skimmed a few of the dozens of comments posted on Rick's Picks and Zero Hedge after they posted one of my expositions on this dynamic, and didn't see even one comment in favor of this perspective. The Con is being set up right now, and the outlines are clearly visible. The Con works like this... 

 

 

 

Goldman's Latest EURUSD Outlook

Submitted by Tyler Durden on 04/15/2011 10:54 -040

Goldman's Themistoklis Fiotakis has released the firm's latest EURUSD outlook. And while the most amusing part of the note has nothing to do with FX but with the firm's ongoing attempt to bankrupt clients by holding Greek bonds ("Stay long 30-yr Greek GGBs, opened at 54c (ask) on 03 September 2010, for a target of 65c and a stop on a close below 50c, now at 53.6c (bid).") we will cut to the chase: Goldman is still calling for 1.50 on the EURUSD, driven by dollar weakness and increasing European interest rates (which will surely succeed in bringing the EUR to infinity, and then promptly lead to the destruction of the currency when half the European continent files for bankruptcy). But that is irrelevant: what is important is that due to some regression model thingy, the EUR has room to run, or in Goldmanese: "Given that this simple model has an R-squared of 74%, a significantly high reading for a regression in changes, it is safe to argue that our factor analysis captures the largest part of the EUR variation." 

 

 

 

First Credit Bubble Conviction: Former New York State Comptroller Havesi Sentenced To 1-4 Years

Submitted by Tyler Durden on 04/15/2011 10:41 -0400

Just out from Reuters:

• FORMER NEW YORK STATE COMPTROLLER HEVESI SENTENCED TO 1 TO 4 YEARS IN PRISON FOR PENSION KICKBACK ROLE

In the meantime, Steve Rattner continues to be a distinguished CNBC contributor, and most certainly is not sentenced to 1-4 years in prison.

Consumer Confidence Improves As 1 Year Inflation Expectation Remains At 2 Year High

Submitted by Tyler Durden on 04/15/2011 10:05 -0400

Once again confirming that sentiment indicators are completely irrelevant and thoroughly misleading at best, we have the UMichigan consumer sentiment coming out at 69.6 compared to expectations of 68.8 and up from the March 67.5 print. This number is a rather stark contrast to the recently highlighted Gallup consumer confidence which plunged to August 2010 levels. And looking at current economic conditions index confirms that since 2010 the economy has gone precisely nowhere. But most notably, 1 year inflation expectations are still at the highest since 2008 at 4.6 unchanged M/M. All that of course is irrelevant as the algos just scanned the headline and go batshit, lifting every offer with gusto. 

 

 

 

With Greek Bonds In Freefall, ECB Intervention Absence Raises Concerns Greece Is Now Doomed

Submitted by Tyler Durden on 04/15/2011 09:34 -0400

It seems that the ECB has now resigned to letting Greece fail. While previously any time we had a whopping 2 point drop in one day the ECB would promptly step in and be the buyer of only recourse in peripheral debt, it has been deathly silent today. And as the chart below demonstrates Greek debt is about to go bidless: a par 10 Year note is trading at 62, with the resulting yield now literally going parabolic. And the 2 Year is now at 16.5%. Luckily for a globalized economy, dominoes are completely isolated and what now appears to be a certain "chain reaction" in creditor defaults will have no impact on the Russell 2000: after all the Fed is surely prepared for this contingency. 

 

 

 

CPI Comes At 0.5%, Ex-Food And Energy 0.1%, Below Expectations, QE3 Door Still Open

Submitted by Tyler Durden on 04/15/2011 08:36 -0400

And again we learn from the Department of Truth that core inflation is non-existent. Of course, this number is not applicable to anyone who actually has to buy things. According to the BLS CPI came in line with expectations, and unchanged from last month, at 0.5%. CPI ex food and energy of 0.1% actually declined from last month's 0.2%, and was below consensus of 0.2%. From the release: "The Consumer Price Index for All Urban Consumers (CPI-U) increased 0.5 percent in March on a seasonally adjusted basis, the U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics reported today. Over the last 12 months, the all items index increased 2.7 percent before seasonal adjustment.  Gasoline and food prices continued to rise and together accounted for almost three quarters of the seasonally adjusted all items increase in March. The gasoline index posted its ninth consecutive increase and has now risen 14.4 percent over the last three months. The household energy index rose as well, with advances in the fuel oil and electricity indexes more than offsetting a decline in the index for natural gas. The food at home index continued to accelerate in March, rising 1.1 percent as all six major grocery store food groups increased." What this means is that core CPI will likely not get high enough to derail the option for QE3 if and when it comes around some time in Q3.