Why Silver Is Still The Best Revenge

"Silver is something most Americans can still afford, but aren’t smart enough to buy. "

 

 

 

Jim Sinclair Will Speak at GATA’s Gold Rush 2011 Conference in London

Posted: Apr 19 2011     By: Jim Sinclair      Post Edited: April 19, 2011 at 11:43 am
Filed under: GATA.org

Dear Friend of GATA and Gold:

Gold mining entrepreneur Jim Sinclair — chairman of Tanzanian Royalty Exploration Corp., veteran gold and commodities trader, and proprietor of the free Internet site of financial market information for the gold community, JSMineSet.com — will speak at GATA’s Gold Rush 2011 conference in London on August 4-6.
For a decade now Sinclair has fearlessly and steadfastly predicted gold’s ascent against the forces of price suppression and market propaganda, and he repeatedly has put his money where his mouth is in pursuit of gold’s renewed recognition as the international currency. Back in 2004, as gold climbed its wall of worry to reach $400 per ounce, Sinclair arranged for his readers what might have been called the "Sinclair put" on the purchase of 1-ounce Vienna Philharmonic gold bullion coins from Monex Precious Metals in Newport Beach, California. If gold still wasn’t above $400 a year hence, Sinclair pledged, he would buy the coins at that price from any disappointed reader. Emboldened by the Sinclair put, your secretary/treasurer bought 10 such coins — and, of course, along with other Sinclair readers, wishes he had bought more. But that is only a part of the gold community’s debt to Sinclair.

 

Max Keiser Documentary On Irish Eco Hell

Submitted by Tyler Durden on 04/19/2011 15:06 -0400

Max Keiser, in his typical engaging and florid style, has released the first part of a documentary focusing on economic collapse hotspots offshore. And while Charles Ferguson already did a good synopsis of what transpired in Iceland in his iconic Oscar winner "Inside Job", nobody has yet done a comparable overview of Ireland. Until now, with Keiser's no holds barred reporting out of Dublin. Must watch for anyone who hates the sugarcoating of reality by the mainstream media.

 

Guest Post: The Breakdown Draws Near

Submitted by Tyler Durden on 04/19/2011 12:52 -0400

Things are certainly speeding up, and it is my conclusion that we are not more than a year away from the next major financial and economic disruption. Alas, predictions are tricky, especially about the future (credit: Yogi Berra), but here's why I am convinced that the next big break is drawing near. In order for the financial system to operate, it needs continual debt expansion and servicing. Both are important. If either is missing, then catastrophe can strike at any time. And by 'catastrophe' I mean big institutions and countries transiting from a state of insolvency into outright bankruptcy. 

 

 

 

NYSE Margin Debt Surges To Highest Since February 2008, Net Speculator Leverage Second Highest Ever

Submitted by Tyler Durden on 04/19/2011 12:31 -0400

The NYSE has released its monthly margin debt update for March. Not surprisingly, with everyone, and yes EVERYONE, chasing nothing but levered beta, margin debt surged to a fresh 3 year high at $315.7 billion, the highest since February 2008. But far more troubling is that when netting out positive margin balances such as Free Credit Cash Accounts and Credit Balances in Margin Accounts, the investor net worth, or alternatively net leverage, as it is defined, plunged by $18.2 billion to ($75.2) billion. This is the second highest net leverage ever seen on on the NYSE, only lower compared to the $79 billion hit at the absolute peak of the credit bubble in June 2007. We all know what followed after. Ironically, when this kind of mass hysteria happens in commodities the CME can't wait to hike margins to cool those evil, evil speculators. It is only natural that the Globex will hike ES margins in 5....4....3.....

Goodbye $44

Submitted by Tyler Durden on 04/19/2011 15:19 -0400

The real beauty about waging a two front war (keeping gold from hitting the barrage of $1,500 limit spot orders; and silver from passing a dollar a day) means that Comex cartel has to pick its fights. Today gold loses for now, as the $1,500 spot (but not futures) price is safely defended. The same can not be said for silver. $44 was just taken out. And those who actually wish to buy American Eagles can do so at the low, low price of $47.32 on Monex.

$1,500

Submitted by Tyler Durden on 04/19/2011 12:10 -0400

Gold futures just passed $1,500. Nobody could have possibly seen this coming (certainly not the shorts). Time for CNBC to break out the "$1,500" hats. 

 

 

 

Forget The VIX: SKEW Tells The True Story About Hedging Market Risk

Submitted by Tyler Durden on 04/19/2011 14:45 -0400

Once again retail is getting duped into believing that all is well in the market by daily blasts of just how low the VIX has plunged. And it has: it is down to levels not seen in years. But as everyone who has done even a little work in option vol, the only index that matters these days, at least for equities now that precious metals and certain currencies (CHF) are the true flight to safety, is the SKEW. As we have disclosed many times in the past, SKEW is how the pros play vol, while VIX is what is left for the peasantry and CNBC. Basically, VIX shows riskiness as implied by ATM options, while SKEW demonstrates the difference between ATM and OTM options. And as the chart below shows, there is a rather dramatic difference when looking between the VIX and SKEW indices. In essence what is happening is that everyone is selling ATM short-dated vol and buying mid-term Out of the Money vol as expressed by the SKEW, in a confirmation that the protection cost in the wings is actually much higher than one would assume.




Jim Sinclair’s Commentary
With regards to media coverage, lowering an outlook is not "lowering an outlook," it is making a warning.
You have to love MOPE. Somebody forgot to tell the New York Times the line of spin.

S.&P. Lowers Outlook for U.S., Sending Stocks Down By CHRISTINE HAUSER
Published: April 18, 2011

The United States has long had a sterling credit report from ratings agencies because of the global preference for the dollar. But the latest deficit gridlock in Washington may have taken some of the luster off the reputation of the world’s largest economy and its currency.
On Monday, the ratings firm Standard & Poor’s lowered its outlook on the United States rating to negative. Although the agency did not actually lower its highest AAA rating on the country’s debt, it was the first time since the S.& P. started assigning outlooks in 1989 that the country was given an outlook that was something other than stable.
While it had not been completely unexpected, the S.& P. decision shifted the nation’s deficit debate out of the political arena — at least for the day — and thrust it on Wall Street. The action spooked investors, sending the three main stock indexes down more than 1 percent.
Treasury yields, or the interest rate that the country pays on its debt, spiked immediately after the announcement. Since the United States owes more than $9 trillion in outstanding debt to the public, even a one-tenth of a percent increase could potentially add billions to the deficit over time.
A lower credit rating for the government could also end up hurting consumers in the pocketbook since Treasury yields also affect rates on consumer loans, particularly mortgages.
More…




Jim Sinclair’s Commentary
This is what it looks like to get hit in the head by a BRIC. Things have certainly changed with changing economics.

China, Russia And India Block Libya Sanctions Tim Marshall April 17, 2011 6:27 PM

The British and French governments want more UN sanctions against Libya but are being blocked by China, Russia and India.
Sky News sources in New York say that among a range of extra measures sought is a proposal to add Libyan state TV to the list of Libyan companies with which it would become illegal to do business. The two governments argue that state TV is aiding the Gaddafi war aims by broadcasting propaganda.
Libyan TV is partially broadcast via satellite companies Arab Sat, Nile Sat and Euro Sat. If it was listed, they could no longer accept payments from Tripoli. That might encourage the companies to consider whether to continue to carry the Libyan TV signal.
China, Russia and India have all called for Nato’s bombing campaign against Libya to stop.
Sky News also understands that within Nato, the Americans, British and France are debating with other countries to see if the list of military targets in Libya can be widened.
More…




Jim Sinclair’s Commentary

A downward spiral that fails to experience intervention at the point of what caused it in the first place continues to zero.
Despite recent bold MOPE to the contrary on revenue, the Formula of 2006 marches on.

States see biggest revenue drop in 60 years 

By JENNIFER EPSTEIN | 1/6/11 2:42 PM EDT
In a sign of the sluggish economy’s devastating impact, state government revenue across the country dropped by nearly one third in 2009 – the sharpest decline in 60 years, the Census Bureau said in a new report.
States saw record-breaking losses to their pension funds and in their tax revenues, as the recession wreaked havoc on payrolls and investments,.
Revenues plummeted by 30.8 percent, from $1.6 trillion in 2008 to $1.1 trillion in 2009, according to the report.
It was the most dramatic drop the Census Bureau has seen since it began collecting state revenue data in 1951.
States reported a total $477 billion drop in “insurance trust revenue” – mostly money from pension funds, while tax collections fell by $66 billion.
And the worst may still be to come.
Fiscal 2012 “will actually be the most difficult budget year for states ever,” said Nicholas Johnson, director of the state fiscal project at the Center on Budget and Policy Priorities, in an interview with The Washington Post.
The center reported last month that states will see budget shortfalls totaling more than $140 billion next year as they continue to wrestle with depressed revenue levels while federal stimulus dollars and reserves run out.
More…

Jim’s Mailbox

Posted: Apr 19 2011     By: Jim Sinclair      Post Edited: April 19, 2011 at 2:59 pm
Filed under: Jim's Mailbox

Hi Jim,
An amazing clock: http://www.usdebtclock.org/index.html
I wonder what it would like if Shadowstats.com’s data was used!
CIGA Tim

Tim,
Time would have ran out!
Jim


BRICS make move to shove dollar aside CIGA Eric

This will become a market directed decision.
China and four other leading high-growth economies have taken landmark steps toward lowering the importance of the dollar in international financial transactions — part of a seminal shift in the move towards a multicurrency reserve and trading system.
Mind you, you wouldn’t get an idea of anything dramatic from reading the official Chinese press on the conclusion of a summit meeting of the so-called BRICS economies (Brazil, Russia, India, China and South Africa) in the southern resort twin of Sanya in southern China last week.
“Leaders call for peace and prosperity” was the front-page headline in the China Daily. Stirring stiff. Even more striking was the prominent story the previous day that China’s President Hu Jintao and visiting Brazilian President Dilma Rousseff had agreed to quicken trade procedures for “gelatin, corn, tobacco leaf, bovine embryos and semen.” At least we know there’s no holding back the Chinese rhetorical flourishes on these issues.
Source: marketwatch.com
More…