Jobless Claims Huge Miss To Expectations Of 380K, Print At 412K, Previous Revised Upward, Core PPI Higher Than Expected

Submitted by Tyler Durden on 04/14/2011 08:40

The BLS beat the expectations game continues. While this week's number of people filing initial cliams surged to 410K, blowing out expectations of 380K, it is once again the prior revision that shows the true nature of the BLS. As we said last week when claims printed at 382K, better than expectations: "last week's 388K was revised up to 392K, declining to 382K below expectations of 385K, which in tried BLS fashion will certainly be revised next week so that the actual number will have been a miss but by then nobody will care." Sure enough: last week's number was revised... to 385K, meaning there was no beat. Obviously this week's number will be revised higher next week. As usual. Looking at continuing claims we see the same thing: the prior number was revised from 3,723K to 3,738K, meaning the drop to this week's 3,680K was better than expected. Lastly from the BLS, people claiming EUCs and Extended Benefits increased by about 40K in the week ended March 26 (full report here).

China's Economic Data Leaked

Submitted by Tyler Durden on 04/14/2011 08:19 -0400

Completing the trifecta of posts focusing on China, here is the (un)official leak of Chinese GDP data to Phoenix TV which is due out at 10 pm. In the past this has been roughly 100% accurate. So without further ado...

Chinese Real Estate Bubble Pops: Beijing Real Estate Prices Plunge 27% In One Month

Submitted by Tyler Durden on 04/14/2011 07:43 -0400

Could the Chinese monetary tightening be working? The Chinese National Bureau of Statistics has released its latest food price update for the period April 1-10, which shows that while most foods continue to rise modestly, several food products have plunged particularly cucumbers and rapes, both falling 8.8%, and kidney beans down 6.3%. Yet this is nothing compared to what is happening to Chinese real estate: it appears Chanos' long anticipated property bubble may have popped... but the supersonic boom is so loud that nobody has heard it yet. 

 

 

 

China's Tightening Ends: Notable Monetary Conditions Loosening Seen In March Money And Credit Data

Submitted by Tyler Durden on 04/14/2011 07:57 -0400

And just in time to follow up on our previous post about the Chinese real estate bubble pop which speculated that PBoC tightening is over, here comes Goldman confirming that the tightening in the world's fastest growing economy is now over. To wit, from Yu Song Helen Qiao: "There was a clear loosening of monetary conditions in March, despite possible distortions to March monetary data because of various end-of-the-quarter examinations at commercial banks. This loosening of monetary conditions was contributed by a combination of i) more bank lending; ii) change to fiscal deposits; and iii) more FX inflows." So China, which is about to report 5.4% CPI (per a Phoenix TV leak, more shortly) is willing to take the political risk of loosening even as it has been working hard to suppress the Jasmine revolution. And yet people still believe the Fed will not recommence loosening (and with ZIRP that leaves only acronym option) as soon as the marginal credit bubble pops heard around the world (not to mention the supply chain effects from Japan crunch US margins) resonate until they hit the US ten-fold. On the other hand a Chinese loosening, no matter the political risks, is possibly Bernanke's last ditch attempt to export marginal money printing, together with Japan which will soon find that another round of QE is inevitable. Alas, with Europe tightening, the US will be the marginal variable yet again. Just like in China, Expect a few month break between QE2 and QE3 at best.

Frontrunning: April 14

Submitted by Tyler Durden on 04/14/2011 08:14 -0400

• Bailout a ‘Flawed Plan’ Forced on Irish People (Irish Times)
• Obama’s Debt Plan Sets Stage for Long Battle Over Spending (NYT)
• America Must Give Up on the Dollar (Michael Pettis)
• Banks Forced to Pay Foreclosure Victims as Talks Continue (Bloomberg)
• Budget Rises as Most Important Problem to Highest Since '96 (Gallup)
• Calls grow for Japan PM to quit in wake of quake (Reuters)
• Find the discrepancy of these two headlines:
  
  • China to See More Interest Rate Hikes in Q2 (China Daily)
  • China Banks Said to Need $131 Billion of Equity Over Six Years (Reuters)
• Hong Kong Considers More Property Measures (WSJ)
• Glencore seeks up to $12.1 billion in IPO, no chair yet (Reuters)

Greek 10 Year Yield Surges Over 13.2% - Euro Falls Against Gold And Particularly Silver

Submitted by Tyler Durden on 04/14/2011 07:18 -0400

Gold is tentatively higher against the euro but mixed against other currencies while silver is again higher against most currencies. Both probed higher this morning and are exhibiting signs that they may push higher prior to a much anticipated correction. The Greek 10 year yield has just surged over 13.2% and this is leading to falls in the euro and risk aversion with equities, commodities and oil falling. Both gold and silver are less than 2% from their record nominal highs seen Monday (gold all time and silver 31 year) and are remaining firm due to concerns about the U.S. dollar, the euro and sovereign debt issues in Europe. While markets are not focusing on geopolitical risk in Africa and the Middle East and the Japanese natural and nuclear disasters, these problems remain and will lead to continuing safe haven demand. Silver’s resistance is at Monday’s multiyear nominal high at $41.95/oz. In normal circumstances profit taking would be expected near $42/oz but this is anything but a normal market due to the existence of massive concentrated short positions being investigated by the CFTC. The dollar’s fall suggests that markets are skeptical of Obama’s latest budget proposal to cut $4 trillion off the massive US budget deficit. The US fiscal situation continues to deteriorate week on week and month on month which could potentially lead to sharp falls in the dollar in the coming weeks. 

 

 

 

On Goldman's CDS Market Manipulation

Submitted by Tyler Durden on 04/14/2011 09:09 -0400

Exactly a year ago, Zero Hedge penned "The Client Always Comes First At Goldman... Except When He Doesn't, Which Is Also Always" which was a review of Goldman's mark manipulation practices particularly as pertains to the OTC domain (read CDS) by going through self-evaluation reviews of the 4 key Goldman trades involved in the Abacus scandal (we would call it crime, but remember: Goldman neither admitted nor denied guilt). As a reminder, in April 2010 we said: "The line penned by Michael, who incidentally was the least like of the three Goldman SPG MDs testifying on Tuesday based on peer feedback, that broke our collective heart is the following: "Once the stress in the mortgage market started filtering into the cash market, I spent numerous hours on conference calls with clients discussing valuation methodologies for GS issued transactions in the subprime and second lien space [redacted] is prime example). I said "no" to clients who demanded that GS should "support the GSAMP" program as clients tried to gain leverage over us. Those were unpopular decisions but they saved the firm hundreds of millions of dollars." Alas, we find that all of Goldman's sincere hypocritical lies before the Senate committee were... precisely just that." This post was followed up by "Goldman Implicated In CDS Price Manipulation Scandal" which essentially recapitulated all the salient points from the first time. Today, with about a full year delay, Bloomberg's Christine Harper and Joshua Gallu realize that there was more than meets the eye to these very disingenuous revalations of impropriety by the very traders who were conducting them, and finally bring much needed broader attention to the matter in "Goldman Traders Attempted to Manipulate Market in 2007, Senate Report Says." Frankly, it's about time.

Bob Janjuah On Picking Your Poison: A 1,350 Top In The S&P Or QE3, With A Change In The FX Regime And A Surge In Gold

Submitted by Tyler Durden on 04/14/2011 09:41 -0400

Assuming that the QE3 option is eventually exercised (as we do under the hard landing outcome) and assuming it does what we fear to the credibility and status of the US, the US dollar and US Treasuries, then we think the result, most likely at some point between 2012 and 2014, will be major fx regime changes and significant paradigm shifts in global fx markets. As these changes and shifts occur, gold could perform very well, as could other scarce physical assets (possibly super prime real estate). And the highest quality (by BS strength) nominal corporate assets – top quality equities in other words – may at least on a relative basis (if not absolute) perform fairly well.

PIG+S Update With Portugal And Greece At Record Yields

Submitted by Tyler Durden on 04/14/2011 10:34 -0400

Almost a year to the day from the first Greek bailout, we thought we would revisit just how successful Europe has been in masking its pervasive insolvency, and just how far Europe has ultimately gone over the past year. As the chart below shows, pretty far. Especially if one measures the displacement by the shift in the Greek bond curve whose 3 year point just passed 18%. Buy it, hold it for 5.5 years and double your money. 

 

 

 

M.A.D. - Meet Nuclear Fission

Submitted by Tyler Durden on 04/14/2011 10:56 -0400

And so Olli Rehn, piggybacking on all the recent nuclear hysteria, takes Mutual Assured Destruction to a whole new mushroom cloud level:

• REHN SAYS A DEBT RESTRUCTURING COULD CAUSE A 'CHAIN REACTION'

This is better known as "MAD - Fission" Fusion

Excerpts From Executive Statements At The IMF/World Bank Meeting

Submitted by Tyler Durden on 04/14/2011 11:25 -0400

Today has been a busy day for central planners around the world: the IMF and the World Bank are holding their spring meetings which has resulted in an avalanche of Bloomberg excerpts. Courtesy of Reuters, here is a full summary of the key statements by various high level officials. As usual anything that is being denied is about to hit us head on. Of particular note are the statements by TeflonTurboTaxTim Geithner. 

 

 

 

 

UK Pensioners Living Below Poverty Line

 

 

 

In The News Today

Posted: Apr 13 2011     By: Jim Sinclair      Post Edited: April 13, 2011 at 9:27 pm
Filed under: In The News

Jim Sinclair’s Commentary
The modest recovery is fragile. The talking heads that fancy themselves as conservatives call for an end to QE2.
The second QE ends their precious equity market will implode along with the so called recovery.
There is only one primary purpose of QE, and that is to provide buyers for government paper when there are not enough to carry the deficit. All other claims for the primary purpose of QE are dribble.
The damage has been done. Currency induced cost push inflation is locked into place. The course has been set in place and deviation is impossible.
The dollar will seek lower levels. Gold will scream past $1650.

Las Vegas home prices fall below 2000 levels with no relief in sight By Hubble Smith
LAS VEGAS REVIEW-JOURNAL
Posted: Mar. 29, 2011 | 7:30 a.m.
Maybe this is the Final Four.
Home values in Las Vegas, Atlanta, Detroit and Cleveland are now below January 2000 levels, according to a report released Tuesday.
The Standard & Poor’s/Case-Shiller 20-city index shows price declines in 19 cities from December to January. Eleven of them are at their lowest level since the housing bust, in 2006 and 2007. The index fell for the sixth straight month.
The only market where prices rose was Washington, D.C., where homes prices gained 0.1 percent month over month.
"The housing market recession is not yet over, and none of the statistics are indicating any form of sustained recovery," said David Blitzer, chairman of the Index Committee at Standard & Poor’s.
The pain is not uniform, however. It is worse in cities where foreclosures and short sales are dominating the market and pushing home prices down. That includes Detroit and Cleveland, which are struggling with weak local economies. And it includes Las Vegas, Miami, Phoenix, and Atlanta, which are also reeling from overbuilding during the housing boom.
Las Vegas has led the nation in foreclosures since the subprime mortgage crisis emerged, knocking down home prices 60 percent from their peak.
The median new-home price fell 9.2 percent from a year ago to $188,900 in February, the lowest it has been since 2002 when it was $183,557, Las Vegas-based SalesTraq reported.
More…

GFMS surprises with their strong prediction on Gold

Posted: Apr 13 2011     By: Dan Norcini      Post Edited: April 13, 2011 at 9:24 pm
Filed under: Trader Dan Norcini

Dear CIGAs,

GFMS is generally known to be a tad conservative on their predictions of the gold price. That is why today’s report from the consultancy surprised me. They are calling for gold to surpass $1600 before this year is out.
The following story from Dow Jones Newswire service is very good.
You can read the entire story here:
http://blogs.wsj.com/source/2011/04/13/streets-are-paved-with-gold/