Despite March Drop From All Time High, Near Record Food Prices Predict Jump In Headline Inflation

Submitted by Tyler Durden on 04/07/2011 08:16 -0400

The UN's Food and Agriculture Organization, whose January print was the catalyst for us to revolutionary food riots ahead of time, released its March food price update - "the Food Price Index (FFPI) averaged 230 points in March  2011, down  2.9 percent from its peak in February, but still 37 percent above March last year. International prices of oils and sugar contracted the most, followed by cereals. By contrast, dairy and meat prices were up." So in essence the drop in the volatile energy component has been transitory, courtesy of WTI and Brent now at 30 month high, and the April number will be yet another surge. Reuters agrees: "new increases are in sight as demand grows and supplies tighten, the UN Food and Agriculture Organisation said. Rising food prices have climbed to the top of the international political agenda after contributing to protests that toppled the rulers of Tunisia and Egypt earlier this year, with unrest spreading across North Africa and the Middle East." The spin: ""The decrease in the overall index this month brings some welcome respite from the steady increases seen over the last eight months," David Hallam, director of FAO's Trade and Market Division, said in a statement. "But it would be premature to conclude that this is a reversal of the upward trend," he said." It isn't. And with loose monetary policy expected out of the US for as wide as the eye can see, little if anything will change for a long time.

 

Another Day, Another Record High For Gold

Submitted by Tyler Durden on 04/07/2011 10:04 -0400

If one scours the newspapers, maybe, just maybe, one may find reference, in the page 13 fine print, that gold prices keep hitting fresh all time highs each and every day. The rumor now is that petrodollars have had their fill of EURs (which they have been buying instead of USDs) and are migrating to PMs. Another catalyst is the earlier announcement by Jean-Claude Trichet that the rate hike may not be the first in a series, confirming the vacillation by the European Central Bank. Until we see confirmation we will let this rumor be. One thing we are certain of: there are more buyers than sellers. 

 

 

 

Initial Claims At 382K, In Line With Expectations And Down From Upward Revised 392K

Submitted by Tyler Durden on 04/07/2011 08:37
No surprise in this number: last week's 388K was revised up to 392K, declining to 382K below expectations of 385K, which in tried BLS fashion will certainly be revised next week so that the actual number will have been a miss but by then nobody will care. Continuing claims were higher than expected at 3,723K on expectations 3,700K, with the prior revised, where else, higher to 3,732K from 3,714K. Importantly, there was a plunge in all persons claiming UI benefits in all programs: down by 245K in the week ended March 19. Altogether nothing special about this

Gaddafi Starts Bombarding His Own Oil Fields

Submitted by Tyler Durden on 04/07/2011 09:36 -0400

Back in February we were wondering how long before Gadaffi starts a scorched earth policy on his own country, and primarily his oil infrastructure, in a repeat of Hussein's non-triumphal departure from Kuwait. Turns out the answer is about a month and a half. With it now becoming painfully clear that the whole purpose of the humanitarian intervention is to procure preferential terms of oil imports from Libya's rebel alliance, the "humanitarian" force has forgotten that despite no airplanes, Gaddafi will likely not take too kindly to not collecting revenues from what he perceives as his natural resources. From the FT: "Oil production in rebel-controlled eastern Libya has stopped after troops loyal to Muammer Gaddafi bombarded several oilfields, the opposition said on Wednesday. The assault came hours after the rebels exported their first cargo of oil into the international market, potentially opening the door to millions of dollars of funding to sustain their uprising against Colonel Gaddafi’s 41-year rule. The attack against oilfields in the east was the first against production facilities. Previously, only port facilities and crude oil storage tanks in the Es Sider and Ras Lanuf, also in the east, were damaged during the conflict." We are confident that this escalation will give NATO the caed blanche to commence a land-based campaign and prevent further infrastructure destruction before Gaddafi causes irreparable damage to even more facilities (although Halliburton naturally couldn't care less).

Futures Plunge On New 7.4 Magnitude Earthquake, Tsunami Alert

Submitted by Tyler Durden on 04/07/2011 10:44 -0400

ES just took a big leg lower. It is unclear if this is due to breaking news of a new 7.4 earthquake hitting Tokyo and a subsequent Tsunami alert. Then again, there may be no reason whatsoever: this is a self-aware SkyNet after all. Follow the latest developments on NHK here. 

 

 

 

 

Two Of Three Power Systems Out At TEPCO Onagawa Plant

Submitted by Tyler Durden on 04/07/2011 11:24 -0400

More bad news for TEPCO. Just out from NHK: Two of three power systems out at TEPCO Onagawa plant. Hopefully this means the plant still has power. More as we see it. 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

With One Day Left, Reid "Not Nearly Optimistic" Shutdown Can Be Avoided: A Run Down Through The Implications

Submitted by Tyler Durden on 04/07/2011 10:32 -0400

The picture for the ongoing operation of US government is looking bleaker by the day. According to The Hill, "Senate Majority Leader Harry Reid (D-Nev.) said that he'd grown pessimistic since last night's meeting at the White House about the chances to avoid a government shutdown. During a speech on the Senate floor, Reid said that in the hours since a meeting last night at the White House with President Obama and House Speaker John Boehner (R-Ohio), he'd grown less optimistic that a deal could be reached to avoid a shutdown. "I am not nearly as optimistic -- and that's an understatement -- as I was 11 hours ago," Reid said." And while the adverse effects of a government shutdown are appreciated by all, the good thing is that such a move will likely freeze the financial picture of the government at a snapshot of Friday's terms. This will be in advance of a week of heavy bond issuance, amount to over $70 billion. If one were to add $20-30 billion in refund issuance, the debt ceiling (and we mean the real deal - based on debt subject to the limit) which now has an $84 billion buffer until breach as of yesterday, could be busted as soon as next week. What better way to prevent that than to shut down the government completely.