Things That Make You Go Hmm, Such As Looking Back At The Key Events Of... 2012
With
everyone and the kitchen sink busy sneaking away from the trading
floor or holiday dinner to pen predictions for 2012 that will
"hopefully" have a success rate of at least 50%+1 (or in Byron Wien's
case, even just 1%), others such as Grant Williams have taken the
opposite route, and in his latest Things that Make You Go Hmm, he has
writen a retrospective, from the point of view of a man
sitting on the edge of the end of the world, namely December 20, 2012,
and looking back at the key events of the year. Among the primary
"memories" of 2012 was the capitulation of Germany and the full backstop
of the ECB of sovereign debt, the departure of Greece, Portugal and
Spain from the Eurozone, the attack by the US of the Bushehr nuclear
reactor leading to an oil price surge to $188 and $5 gas prices at the
pump, the nail-biting electoral win of Hilary Clinton over Michael
Bloomberg, the predicted but delayed municipal bond meltdown, the
announcement of QE3 with $800 billion of MBS purchases in February
followed by QE4 in which the Fed cut the rate on overnight reserves,
this time however promptly followed by a spike in inflation, the
parallel surge of gold to $2400, especially after the MF Global
whistleblower revelation that gold had, after all, been manipulated all
those years, the epic collapse of the Chinese housing market and the
economy' hard sinking, and much, much more.CNN/Time Poll Finds Romney, Paul Iowa Photofinish, PPP Has Paul In Lead For Second Week
When a week ago we reported the latest weekly data from the Public Policy Polling institute, many were stunned to learn that Ron Paul was in the lead in the Iowa caucuses. In light of the neverending media onslaught against the Texan, this is not very surprising. The discrepancy between PPP and other, more "accepted" polls such as the CNN/Time was borderline ridiculous, when it came to the standing of the anti-Fed crusader (attacks against whom have recently passed into the Twilight Zone as per this NYT article). Just released, however, is the latest CNN poll information, which is far more in line with what PPP predicts, namely an Iowa photofinish between Paul and Romney. "Twenty-five percent of people questioned say if the caucuses were held today, they'd most likely back Mitt Romney, with 22% saying they'd support Rep. Ron Paul of Texas. Romney's three point margin is within the poll's sampling error. The poll's Wednesday release comes six days before Iowa's January 3 caucuses, which kickoff the presidential primary and caucus calendar. The Iowa caucuses are followed one week later by the New Hampshire primary." In its previous poll, CNN had Gingrich in the lead with 33%, followed by Romney and Paul with 20% and 17%. So while CNN implicitly admits that Paul may well be in the lead net of sampling error, it masks this by making the story focus on something totally irrelevant: the fact that somehow Santorum's support is surging.Iran Outlines Key Steps And Actors In A Potential Straits Of Hormuz Closure
While the Iranian war game naval exercises have been ongoing for almost five days, or half of the projected 10, tensions in the Straits of Hormuz region have been rising culminating with today's interchange between the head of the Iranian Navy and the US 5th Fleet (which for various reasons we can not present you with a status update today). One question that remains is just what would a closure of the Straits looks like. Luckily, the Middle East Media Research Institute's blog has caught a release by an Iranian website Mashreq News, which spells out the step by step details of just how such a closure would be enacted.
Italian bonds return to 7%. Markets plummet/Raid on gold and silver
Good
evening Ladies and Gentlemen:
Today bourses around the globe were in the red as many see the
insolvency of the situation and not the lack of liquidity. The German
Dax was down over 2% and the Dow fell by 140 points. Our bankers hit
paper gold and paper silver down big time as they knew that they have no
opposition in the paper field due to investors leaving the comex
because of the
HUI on Target for a Losing Year
The mining stocks are on course for a losing year, one which has been
extremely disappointing for those who bought the shares in anticipation of
higher gold and silver prices, only to see that take place but then having
to witness the spectacle of the shares themselves lagging poorly over the
last 12 months. Between Hedge funds playing that infernal Spread trade and
"Risk Aversion" related selling, they could not get anything going.
Toss in the fact that more and more those looking for leveraged exposure to
gold and/or silver, can buy the ETF's directly, thereby eliminating
exposur... more »
Couch Time For Precious Metals Investors
*There is no doubt in my mind that the degree to which the bullion
banks/Fed are hammering the precious metals reflects the relative severity
underlying hidden problems in our system that will have to be papered over
with printed money. But it also reflects the degree to which the metals
will rebound once that printing gameplan is revealed.*
A lot of metals/miners investors are starting to freak out. It's not easy
watching an investment seemingly melt down the way the metals have in the
last few weeks. Of course, if you take a slightly longer perspective than
the one that the i... more »
SP 500 and NDX Futures Daily Charts - Light Volumes
December 28, 2011, at 1:36 pm
by Jim Sinclair in the category Jim's Mailbox |
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by Jim Sinclair in the category Jim's Mailbox |
Print This Post | Email This PostDear Jim,
It takes years of trading experience and a humongous pair of balls to make the calls and then stick to your guns in the face of universal opposition, which you have successfully done for as long as we’ve known you, and for which you have our greatest respect. Decisions made against the crowd make for a lonely business, indeed. We can barely imagine the volume of calls and public panic you must be dealing with.
I would think that you will be well qualified to be licensed with the state as a practicing psychiatrist, by the time this gold correction is done.
Kenny
Jim Sinclair’s Commentary
Under the fluff of day to day MSM MOPE the sum of all financial fears plods on.
Gold is our only protection against the intrigue that circulates at the foundation of finance in politics, not even touched on by talking heads, MSM and especially the herd of experts that babble every day.
The Foundations for Global Conflict
The increasingly contentious tenor of Anglo-American relations with Iran has remained a predominant feature in international relations over the past 5 years. Now, with the wind-down of American forces in Iraq, and the U.S. Administrations’ belated realization that Afghanistan will not evolve into a codified nation around a strong central government, but will instead require a devolution of power to localized Taliban forces, the focus has turned to Iran. Iran’s nuclear program, while remaining a prominent topic in the media, may, in fact, no longer be the focal point for western objectives. The singular objective of preventing Iran from obtaining an operational and deliverable nuclear weapon appears now to either have been contained, relegated to secondary status or perhaps even achieved through technological warfare, although the latter is hard for the lay-person to verify. However, what is clear is that the primary policy objective, that of regime change, conceived over a decade ago, is now ascendant. In dissecting the never-ending volley of verbiage that surrounds Iran’s diplomatic relations with the English-speaking world, the latest diplomatic ruptures and escalation of threatening rhetoric has unique features which indicate that the possibility of conflict is increasing significantly.
Primary amongst these is the termination of diplomatic relations with Britain. The attack on the UK mission in Tehran, and its obvious sanction by the Iranian government, may be seen as an attempt to drive a wedge between the Anglo-American sphere of influence that has been driving for an oil embargo against Iran, vs. the EU-centred desire to maintain such flows, and the Russian desire to delimit any potential military moves against Iran. One can surmise how the latest UK-EU rift over recent attempts by the Brussels to dominate the financial and political landscape at a time of ever increasing crisis may have, in fact, revealed its limits in the conduct of international trade and relations. The Anglo-American world is lining up against nascent French influence directed via Brussels (with the tacit support of Germany), over the conduct of the international oil trade. This is the exact diplomatic trajectory that preceded the invasion of Iraq, although crucially, German power was nowhere near as dominant as it is now.
While the mainstream press retains its’ focus on recent Iranian military exercises in the Persian Gulf and the question of whether Iran can or will attempt to close the Straits of Hormuz, the British diplomatic rupture with Iran, widely seen as a mere diplomatic idiosyncrasy takes on true significance. The concurrent British drive for EU-wide oil sanctions, already approved in Washington, has significantly increased the potential for military conflict. Iran has retaliated that if such sanctions are brought to bear on the lifeline of its economy, it will proceed with attempts to close the Straits, and terminate all shipments through the region. This would mean, most significantly, a large portion of Saudi crude, as well as the entirety of Kuwaiti and Iraqi crude being shut-in. The success of an Iranian backed closure of the Straits, even for a short period of time, could unleash regional chaos in an area already beset by public uprisings against the established order. Iraq, already divided by regional power-demarcation, could re-collapse into wholesale anarchy.
An EU-wide embargo of Iranian oil would destroy Iran’s economy in short order, and likely send crude oil prices significantly higher. The regime would be forced to act militarily to survive, despite its significant force inferiority. Here there are echoes of the Western policy pursued vis-à-vis Japan in the 1930s.
How the Franco-German axis lines up with Russia will be paramount to diplomatic considerations. If the resolution to an ever-increasing currency crisis in the Euro area is the restoration of a commodity-backed currency, Russia may play a role more significant than most expect. It has the tangible basis to offset its’ own lack of gold-reserves, and could offer currency stability via oil and natural gas, if the gold reserves of Europe, held in America, can not be physically recovered. As Russia is the primary energy supplier to Europe’s predominant economic power – Germany – it could be a natural fit. The survival of the Euro project could then effectively hinge on Russian support. However, if a German dominated EU backs the policy of Anglo-American oil sanctions, Russia will withdraw such support and, faced with increasing isolation, will not hesitate to use its energy-leverage with Germany. Germany is well aware of this. As such, it is hardly surprising that on the issue of an oil embargo against Iran, Germany is praying it can sit on the fence for an extended period of time. It is a luxury which may not last. Washington and London are pressing the matter. Germany, and not France, will decide the outcome of the EU’s position on an Iranian oil embargo. Support threatens relations with its primary energy supplier, lack of support threatens relations with its primary military ally. But, as German economic success relies less on exports to America, and more on trade with the world at large, its dependency on and vulnerability to Russia increases.
As the EU can hold the Iranian economy hostage through the threat of compliance with an Anglo-American based oil sanctions regime, Russia, firmly against such sanctions, could, at a minimum, make life hell for Europe at a time when energy costs could deliver the coup-de grace to a highly fragile world economy. That in turn would significantly jeopardize the continuation of the project for European Union and may even ultimately lead to its disintegration. The price of regime change in Iran could be increased Russian leverage in Europe and expanded hegemony in Asia. As serious as a Euro-disintegration may be, even this may be considered a secondary consideration when set against the potential for a wide spread series of regional proxy wars pitting Anglo-American influence against Russian influence, from Kazakhstan through Central Asia and ultimately into outright conflict in Iran. There are signs that these proxy wars have been regenerated. If Iran and the west begin hostilities, Russia will reassert its influence in areas of Central Asia where western interests have increased significantly in the past 20 years. This has been its historic reaction, and there is little reason to believe it has changed. Russian reassertion of regional hegemony as a response to an attack on Iran will demand the rollback of American petroleum interests in the region, where billions have been spent. Needless to say, this may be challenged. Although largely forgotten, Central Asia has long been a pivot point for global conflict. With the massive increase in the economic power of China, India and Turkey over the past generation, that role as a fulcrum for conflict has only increased. Along with the chaos sweeping the MENA region, as one power vacuum after another emerges, open conflict with Iran has ability to conflagrate into an all-out global conflict of potentially catastrophic proportions.
CIGA Pedro
December 28, 2011, at 1:34 pm
by Monty Guild in the category Guild Investment | Print This Post | Email This Post
by Monty Guild in the category Guild Investment |
Print This Post | Email This PostDear CIGAs,
We are recommending taking profits in the U.S. Market after it’s recent rally.
Recommendation Tracker
(Please click image to enlarge)
Click here for More…
Jim Sinclair’s Commentary
There are those that always purchase gold on price weakness caused by unfounded fear of the gold’s price fostered by MSM.
Nation urged to increase holdings of gold
Updated: 2011-12-27 07:57
By Wang Xiaotian (China Daily)
BEIJING – China should further diversify its foreign-exchange portfolio and make more gold purchases when the metal’s price dips but is still at a relatively high level, a senior central bank official said on Monday.
“The Chinese government should not only be cautious of the imported risk caused by rising global inflation, but also further optimize its foreign-exchange portfolio and purchase gold assets when the gold price shows a favorable fluctuation,” said Zhang Jianhua, director of the research bureau affiliated with the People’s Bank of China (PBOC).
He made the remarks in an article in the Beijing-based Financial News, a newspaper run by the PBOC.
The spot gold price declined 16 percent over the past three months to less than $1,600 an ounce last week. It touched a record of more than $1,900 in early September.
Zhang said bleak economic conditions, increasing international liquidity as countries turned to monetary easing and the resulting high inflation had dampened investors’ confidence. He said that gold had become the only “safe haven” for risk-averse investors. “No asset is safe now. The only choice to hedge risks is to hold hard currency – gold.”
Zhang didn’t specify what proportion of China’s $3.2 trillion foreign reserves should be held in gold.
More…
December 28, 2011, at 11:30 am
by Greg Hunter in the category USAWatchdog.com | Print This Post | Email This Post
by Greg Hunter in the category USAWatchdog.com |
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By Greg Hunter’s USAWatchdog.com
Dear CIGAs,
Over the last several days, I began hearing a new description of the economy by the mainstream media (MSM)—“turnaround.” I can’t tell you how many different ways this phrase was used, but it was enough to get my attention. I don’t know who comes up with this stuff or where it is hatched, but I think this phrase is the new “recovery” term. Remember when we started out with “green shoots”? That phrase turned yellow and died. Then, there was the “fragile recovery,” and that turned into just a “recovery.” After that, we hit a “soft patch” and that was just “transitory.” Now, we have moved on to the “turnaround.” Is the economy turning around? The data says no.
Sure, we had a recent uptick in consumer confidence, and there was some improvement in car sales, but both are way down from their highs before the 2008 meltdown. When it comes to home sales, well, the most recent numbers from the Case-Shiller index shows an ongoing disaster. In the 20 city survey of home values, all but one market was down—Washington, D.C. This is, of course, the home of the big spending government. How much were home prices up there?–a whopping 1.3%. The average year over year decline in the entire 20 city survey was a negative 3.4%. Some markets, such as Tampa, Seattle, Minneapolis and Las Vegas, were down between 6% and 8.5%. In Atlanta, home prices were down by nearly 12%! (Read the entire Case-Shiller report by clicking here.)
Please keep in mind, these declines are happening despite a 30 year mortgage rate of around 4%. Many say this is an artificial rate that is being engineered by the Federal Reserve. What do you think will happen to home prices when interest rates rise to a modest 7% level? Can you say second leg of a housing crash? I’ll say it again, what “turnaround”?
The most recent estimates from the National Retail Federation are projecting holiday sales will be up 3.8% over last year. (We will know the actual numbers in few weeks.) I wonder how much of this increase will be attributed to inflation? According to the official government number, it is running at 3.4% annually. If you compute inflation the way the government did in 1980 and earlier, it would be 11% (according to Shadowstats.com.)
Speaking of Shadowstats.com, the latest issue is not showing the “turnaround” the MSM is crowing about. Here are two of the headlines from the most recent report that pretty much says it all: “GDI (gross domestic income) Indicates No U.S. Economic Growth in Either Second- or Third-Quarter 2011” and “Durable Goods Orders and New Home Sales Show Stagnation.” Are these the headlines that point to a “turnaround”?
More…
Dear CIGAs,
Over the last several days, I began hearing a new description of the economy by the mainstream media (MSM)—“turnaround.” I can’t tell you how many different ways this phrase was used, but it was enough to get my attention. I don’t know who comes up with this stuff or where it is hatched, but I think this phrase is the new “recovery” term. Remember when we started out with “green shoots”? That phrase turned yellow and died. Then, there was the “fragile recovery,” and that turned into just a “recovery.” After that, we hit a “soft patch” and that was just “transitory.” Now, we have moved on to the “turnaround.” Is the economy turning around? The data says no.
Sure, we had a recent uptick in consumer confidence, and there was some improvement in car sales, but both are way down from their highs before the 2008 meltdown. When it comes to home sales, well, the most recent numbers from the Case-Shiller index shows an ongoing disaster. In the 20 city survey of home values, all but one market was down—Washington, D.C. This is, of course, the home of the big spending government. How much were home prices up there?–a whopping 1.3%. The average year over year decline in the entire 20 city survey was a negative 3.4%. Some markets, such as Tampa, Seattle, Minneapolis and Las Vegas, were down between 6% and 8.5%. In Atlanta, home prices were down by nearly 12%! (Read the entire Case-Shiller report by clicking here.)
Please keep in mind, these declines are happening despite a 30 year mortgage rate of around 4%. Many say this is an artificial rate that is being engineered by the Federal Reserve. What do you think will happen to home prices when interest rates rise to a modest 7% level? Can you say second leg of a housing crash? I’ll say it again, what “turnaround”?
The most recent estimates from the National Retail Federation are projecting holiday sales will be up 3.8% over last year. (We will know the actual numbers in few weeks.) I wonder how much of this increase will be attributed to inflation? According to the official government number, it is running at 3.4% annually. If you compute inflation the way the government did in 1980 and earlier, it would be 11% (according to Shadowstats.com.)
Speaking of Shadowstats.com, the latest issue is not showing the “turnaround” the MSM is crowing about. Here are two of the headlines from the most recent report that pretty much says it all: “GDI (gross domestic income) Indicates No U.S. Economic Growth in Either Second- or Third-Quarter 2011” and “Durable Goods Orders and New Home Sales Show Stagnation.” Are these the headlines that point to a “turnaround”?
More…
December 27, 2011, at 1:54 pm
by Jim Sinclair in the category In The News | Print This Post | Email This Post
by Jim Sinclair in the category In The News |
Print This Post | Email This PostJim Sinclair’s Commentary
In the midst of significant MOPE about improvement in housing, prices again dropped. Specialty retailers have high inventory and are floundering. Consider this in the dollar argument of the interview with Ellis Martin carried this morning here.
Jim Sinclair’s Commentary
Until you feel there is a route to some cure of the Western world debt problems, gold remains the financial insurance policy that will function.
Obama to ask for debt limit hike: Treasury official
WASHINGTON (Reuters) – The White House plans to ask Congressby the end of the week for an increase in the government’s debt ceiling to allow the United States to pay its bills on time, according to a senior Treasury Department official on Tuesday.
The approval is expected to go through without a challenge, given that Congress is in recess until later in January and the request is in line with an agreement to keep the U.S. government funded into 2013.
The debt is projected to fall within $100 billion of the current cap by December 30, when the United States has $82 billion in interest on its debt and payments such as Social Security coming due. President Barack Obama is expected to ask for authority to increase the borrowing limit by $1.2 trillion, part of the spending authority that was negotiated between Congress and the White House this summer.
More…
Jim Sinclair’s Commentary
The cold oil war could warm up.
IRAN: ‘Not A Drop Of Oil Will Pass Through The Strait’ If Sanctions Increase Robert Johnson | Dec. 27, 2011, 10:26 AM
Three days into their 10-day naval exercise, Iran announced it will shut the Strait of Hormuz and close off nearly one-third of all tanker-carried oil if sanctions against its own oil exports are enforced.
Al-Arabiya News reports Iranian Vice President Ahi Rah imi said “If sanctions are adopted against Iranian oil, not a drop of oil will pass through the Strait of Hormuz."
“We have no desire for hostilities or violence … but the West doesn’t want to go back on its plan” [to impose sanctions], he said.
The most recently imposed sanctions on Iran fell in November, which prompted the British embassy in Tehran to be stormed by militia members. But the U.S. is leading a push to restrict Iran’s oil exports, as well, which would cripple its national economy.
On December 1, the U.S. Senate sanctioned the Central Bank of Iran, a first step in limiting crude export.
Indira A.R. Lakshaman and Asijylyn at Businessweek report:
The Senate measure would give the Obama administration power to bar foreign financial institutions that do business with the central bank from having correspondent bank accounts in the U.S. If enacted, it could be much harder for foreign companies to pay for oil imports from Iran, the world’s third largest exporter of the commodity.
More…
December 27, 2011, at 1:53 pm
by Jim Sinclair in the category Jim's Mailbox | Print This Post | Email This Post
by Jim Sinclair in the category Jim's Mailbox |
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Folks,
Consider yourselves among this very small group:
"Let me tell you that when this year is over, the only hands left holding physical gold and gold shares are the strongest hands on the planet. Every possible weak hand has been shaken out. Every person with emotions even latently capable of overwhelming their intellect,
Continue reading Jim’s Mailbox
Consider yourselves among this very small group:
"Let me tell you that when this year is over, the only hands left holding physical gold and gold shares are the strongest hands on the planet. Every possible weak hand has been shaken out. Every person with emotions even latently capable of overwhelming their intellect,
Continue reading Jim’s Mailbox
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