Monday, December 5, 2011

Rumor Meet News: S&P To Put All 17 Euro Nations On Downgrade Watch

Just as we noted earlier from the leak to the FT, Bloomberg is now reporting further that
S&P Said to Place All 17 Euro Nations on Rating Downgrade Watch
The AAA aspect is probably the most critical still and the differentiation between Austria and France and the rest of the AAA European sovereigns has been plain to see for a while but the major direct impact of this move will be on EFSF bonds (and the entire support structure) which managed to rally back from just over 200bps to 148bps close today.

 

 

ECB's Nowotny Slams Door Shut

As Deutsche Bank suggested earlier, the ECB needs a market plunge to justify an intervention. Hence, here is the ECB's very own Nowotny doing all he can do to precipitate a, you go it, market plunge:
  • NOWOTNY FEARS MERKEL/SARKOZY PROGRAM WON'T BE ENOUGH
  • NOWOTNY SAYS EUROPE CAN SOLVE CRISIS ITSELF
  • NOWOTNY SAYS NOT NECESSARY THAT USA `HELP OUT' EUROPE
  • NOWOTNY SAYS SMP CAN'T BE COMPARED TO FED, BOE PROGRAMS
  • NOWOTNY SAYS SMP HAS TIME LIMIT
  • NOWOTNY: DEBT CRISIS MUST NOT BECOME BANKING CRISIS AGAIN
For anyone who ignored the DB post earlier, we urge you reread it...




EUR Tumbles: S&P About To Put Europe's AAA Club (Including Germany, France And Austria) On "Creditwatch Negative"

Here it comes. From the FT: "Standard and Poor’s has warned Germany and the five other triple A members of the eurozone that they risk having their top-notch ratings downgraded as a result of deepening economic and political turmoil in the single currency bloc. The US ratings agency is poised to announce later on Monday that it is putting Germany, France, the Netherlands, Austria, Finland, and Luxembourg on “creditwatch negative”, meaning there is a one-in-two chance of a downgrade within 90 days. It warned all six governments that their ratings could be lowered to AA+ if the creditwatch review failed to convince its experts. Markets have been braced for a potential downgrade of France but few expected Germany’s top rating to be called into question. With regard to Germany, S&P said it was worried about “the potential impact (...) of what we view as deepening political, financial, and monetary problems with the European economic and monetary union.” Standard and Poor’s has warned Germany and the five other triple A members of the eurozone that they risk having their top-notch ratings downgraded as a result of deepening economic and political turmoil in the single currency bloc." How this critical news was leaked, we have no idea. However, what is important is that now may be a good time to panic, unless Allianz has another CDO Quadratic plan up its sleeve...




Jeremy Grantham Releases The Scariest Market Forecast Yet


While we will leave readers alone when reading what the GMO head has dubbed the "shortest quarterly letter ever", we want to emphasize one point, namely Grantham's projection of how the market will perform in the next 10 years. The squeamish may want to look away: "No Market for Young Men.” Historians would notice that all major equity bubbles (like those in the U.S. in 1929 and 1965 and in Japan in 1989) broke way below trend line values and stayed there for years. Greenspan, neurotic about slight economic declines while at the same time coasting on Volcker’s good work, introduced an era of effective overstimulation of markets that resulted in 20 years of overpriced markets and abnormally high profit margins. In this, Greenspan has been aided by Bernanke, his acolyte, who has continued his dangerous policy. The first of the two great bubbles that broke on their watch did not reach trend at all in 2002, and the second, in 2009 – known by us as the first truly global bubble – took only three months to recover to trend. This pattern is unique. Now, with wounded balance sheets, perhaps the arsenal is empty and the next bust may well be like the old days. GMO has looked at the 10 biggest bubbles of the pre-2000 era and has calculated that it typically takes 14 years to recover to the old trend. An important point here is that almost no current investors have experienced this more typical 1970’s-type market setback. When one of these old fashioned but typical declines occurs, professional investors, conditioned by our more recent ephemeral bear markets, will have a permanent built-in expectation of an imminent recovery that will not come. For the record, Exhibit 1 shows what the S&P 500 might look like from today if it followed the average fl ight path of the 10 burst bubbles described above. Not very pretty."




What The XYZ!

S&P
AAA
SDR
IMF
ECB
Fed
CDS
The fact that the global financial system hinges on these 7 sets of 3 letters is appalling and amazing.




Many have little to no savings as retirement looms

Eric De Groot at Eric De Groot - 1 hour ago

Many have little to no savings as retirement looms says the ant to the grasshopper. In global economy driven by cycles, capital flows, and outdated constructs based on perpetual debt-based spending who's really the grasshopper? Headline: Many have little to no savings as retirement looms For many Americans, the golden years are quickly taking on a tin-like hue. After a vicious decade of... [[ This is a content summary only. Visit my website for full links, other content, and more! ]] 




Obama Explains Live How A Payroll Tax Cut Needs "Tiny" Millionaire Surtax

Apparently one taxcut for another is an equitable quid pro quo. Watch the president explain how expanding the payroll tax would be funded by millionaires. Which naturally means DOA.




BIG DOG – New Ron Paul Ad

 

 

It’s Time To Give Up On Mainstream Economics

 



Euro Crisis Destabilizing the Dollar

by Dr. Ron Paul, Paul.House.gov:
In response to pressure from Wall Street, the White House and central banks in Europe, the Federal Reserve last week drastically cut interest rates for currency swaps to benefit troubled European banks. This will flood world markets with more dollars and will soon mean rising prices for every American at the grocery store. This extra liquidity will temporarily ease the cash crunch for irresponsible bankers, but in the long run it will make the situation much worse for consumers all over the world. Equities markets registered big gains at the news, but only for a day. Make no mistake – this is not capitalism, and this is not how a free market operates. In a free market, bankruptcies happen, even to large banks. We must remember, free markets are the true and best regulators of financial mismanagement.
By contrast, under our current form of special interest corporatism certain businesses are granted too-big-to-fail status and are never allowed to go bankrupt. They keep profits generated during the good times generated by the Fed’s monetary inflation, yet their losses are socialized through inflationary bailouts. This means you and your family eventually pay for the Fed’s decisions because every dollar you earn is worth less.




“Shut Up. You Don’t Get a Lawyer!”: The Defense Authorization Act Guts Civil Liberties

 

 

FLASHBACK 2005: Police-State Powers Are Our Biggest Threat

 

Please consider making a small donation, to help cover some of the labor and cost for this blog.

Thank You

I'm PayPal Verified

 


No comments:

Post a Comment