Tuesday, December 15, 2015

10 Investor Warning Signs For 2016




Wall Street’s proclivity to create serial equity bubbles off the back of cheap credit has once again set up the middle class for disaster. The warning signs of this next correction have now clearly manifested, but are being skillfully obfuscated and trivialized by financial institutions. Nevertheless, here are ten salient warning signs that astute investors should heed as we roll into 2016.

All Los Angeles Schools Closed Due To "Credible Terror Threat"

Los Angeles police confirmed that all Los Angeles Unified School District (LAUSD) schools are closed Tuesday as police investigate what The LA Times reports as a bomb threat was called into a LAUSD board member. LAUSD is the nation's 2nd largest district.


The "Long USD" Trade Has Never Been More Crowded




"Panic"











Virtually Every Wall Street Strategist Expects "No End To The Bull Market"

Soaring junk bond redemptions; rising investment grade (and high yield) yields pressuring corporate buybacks; record corporate leverage and sliding cash flows; Chinese devaluation back with a vengeance; capital outflows from EM accelerating as dollar strength returns; corporate profits and revenues in recession; CEOs most pessimistic since 2012, oh and the Fed's first rate hike in 9 years expected to soak up as much as $800 billion in excess liquidity. To Wall Street's strategists none of this matters: as Bloomberg observes, virtually every single sellside forecasts expects "no end to the bull market."




Bears Beware: Dennis Gartman Is Having None Of This Rally

 "It is time once again to seek the safety of the sidelines. This is not the time to be aggressively bullish of equities but rather this is the time for… as we say here in the South… “hunkering down,” for getting smaller, for curtailing exposure."



And Another: Junk Bond Fund Run By Clintons' Close Personal Friend Slammed With Heavy Redemptions

News that billionaire Marc Lasry's Avenue Credit Strategies Fund open-ended mutual fund has been slammed with redemptions in recent weeks will hardly ease fears about a capital outflow from the junk bond which has sent junk ETFs down 12% for the year and has become the main topic of discussion over the past week following a flurry of reports about panic among holders of below-investment grade bonds.



Core CPI Rises 2.0% Driven By Surging Rents, Giving Fed Green Light To Hike Rate

Just hours before the FOMC sits down in the Marriner Eccles to discuss just how it will announce the first rate hike in 9 years, 7 years to the day after it cut rates to zero, it got the best gift from the BLS it could have asked for: core inflation rose precisely the amount the Fed wanted from a year ago, ot 2.0% on the dot, the highest annual core CPI increase in the past year. Why the jump? "About two-thirds of this increase is accounted for by the shelter index, which rose 3.2 percent over the span."

Jewish Banksters Identity Politics

“The answer to the Jewish problem is simple,” he said. “Keep them out of banking, out of education, out of government.” ― Eustace Mullins
from BATR:
Any discussion on the Federal Reserve inevitably will revert into the role of Jewish Bankers in the failures of the central bank. Resistance from the current Jackals of Jekyll Island prevents a Federal Reserve audit. The identity politics that absorb the banking elites usually revolves on money. However, when the financial establishment unites to shield the Fed to protect the likes of Greenspan, Bernanke and Yellen, one needs to ask why are Jewish Banksters put in charge of the central bank? Identity politics of the tribe comes to the rescue. The mere notion of asking such a question requires a slap down and charges of hatred.
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"Dark" Days Ahead: Main Power Supplier For Brazil Olympic Games Pulls Out

 "Are there other people out there with enough equipment? Probably. But in terms of the operational side of things, Aggreko are pretty good at this."



Empire Manufacturing Contracts For 5th Month As Workweek Crashes Near Record Lows

 While Empire Fed Manufacturing survey modestly beat expectations (-4.6 vs -7 exp), it has been in contraction for 5 straght months. The biggest driver of the 'beat' was a massive surge in 'hope' (six month outlook surged from 20 to 38.5 - its biggest percentage gain since Nov 2011). At the same time as hope soars, employment tumbles to 6 year lows and average workweek collapses to its lowest since the peak of the crisis in 2009.



Russia Sees No Oil Price Recovery In The Coming 7 Years

 
“In our estimates, one should hardly expect any serious growth of the oil price above $50," Oreshkin told a breakfast forum hosted by Russian newspaper Vedomosti on Friday. “The oil industry is changing structurally and it may happen that... the global economy will not need that much oil."

Frontrunning: December 15

  • Global stocks rise but oil, Fed keep investors nervous (Reuters)
  • Janet Yellen: An orthodox economist for unorthodox times (Reuters)
  • House Democrats Said to Be Open to Lifting Oil Export Ban (BBG)
  • Don't Count on an Oil Rally If U.S. Crude Export Ban Is Lifted (BBG)
  • Germany welcomes 34-state Islamic military alliance against terrorism (Reuters)
  • U.S. soldier Bergdahl may face life sentence in court-martial over desertion (Reuters)



Futures Surge, Oil Rebounds As Fed Starts Historic Two-Day "Rate Hike" Meeting

The start of the Fed's most eagerly awaited two-day policy meeting in years has finally arrived with the market expecting Yellen to announce the first 25 bps rate hike in 9 years tomorrow with nearly 80% probability, and so far US equity futures are enjoying a last minute relief rally, while emerging market stocks rose for the first day in ten after the longest losing run since June. Europe's Stoxx 600 Index has also rebounded from a five-day losing streak, the worst in over four months.



Will The Fed Hike Rates This Week? The Only 'Data' That Matters

The real "data" that The Fed is "dependent" on...

This Is What A Financial Crisis Looks Like

by Michael Snyder, The Economic Collapse Blog:

Just within the past few days, three major high yield funds have completely imploded, and panic is spreading rapidly on Wall Street.  Funds run by Third Avenue Management and Stone Lion Capital Partners have suspended payments to investors, and a fund run by Lucidus Capital Partners has liquidated its entire portfolio.  We are witnessing a race for the exits unlike anything that we have seen since the great financial crash of 2008, and many of those that choose to hesitate are going to end up getting totally wiped out.  In case you are wondering, this is what a financial crisis looks like.  In 2008, other global stock markets started to tumble, then junk bonds began to crash, and finally U.S. stocks followed.  The exact same pattern is playing out again, and the carnage that we have seen so far is just the tip of the iceberg.
Read More…

US Marshal Calls for ARREST of Hillary Clinton! She’s Responsible for….

from Josh Tolley:


EQUITY MARKETS TUMBLE EVERYWHERE

by Harvey Organ, HarveyOrganblog:
Good evening Ladies and Gentlemen:
Gold: $1064.70 down $12.20 (comex closing time)
Silver $13.66 down 20 cents
In the access market 5:15 pm
Gold $1060.00
Silver: $13.66
At the gold comex today, we had an extremely poor delivery day, registering 65 notices for 6500 ounces.Silver saw 82 notice for 410,000 oz.
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Here Is Why The Days of The Dollar As World Reserve Currency Are Numbered – Mike Maloney

from WhyGoldandSilver:


Over 15,000 Baby Sea Lions Estimated Dead as Pacific Sea Life Dies Off

by L.J. Devon, Natural News:
The Marine Mammal Center rescued over a hundred sea lions in a 10-day period off the West Coast of California in the winter of 2015. The influx of stranded sea lions is a sign that the health of the ocean is deteriorating. From January 1 to February 12, 2015, National Geographic counted nearly 500 rescued sea lions, an amount that is alarming scientists. Something has gone awry in the West Coast waters.
The sea lions are not finding food, they are losing strength, and many are starting to wash ashore. The startling trend didn’t start in 2015. The number of stranded sea lions began rising in the winter of 2013, when scientists started noticing waves of sea lion pups washing ashore. Scientists believe the ocean’s temperatures have shifted. Warmer currents may be affecting food sources that the sea lions depend on. Others see problems in ocean water acidity. The animals are being forced to go on longer quests to find food. Many of the pups are being left behind, stranded, while their parents search for food.
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Tens of Thousands of Properties to Be “Dumped” on London Real Estate Market by 2017

from Liberty Blitzkrieg:

One of the most spectacular bubbles inflated as a direct result of the oligarch giveaway colloquially known as “central bank policy” in the years since the global economic meltdown, has been the London real estate market. There are many reasons for this, but the primary one is the fact that London was seen as one of the best places for shady billionaires to park illicit funds, i.e., money laundering.
With a cratering in emerging market economies, as well as tax changes in the UK, much of that trade is now over. As such, some players are now scrambling to get out before the bottom drops.
If the following article is even remotely accurate, London real estate investors need to pay close attention.
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House of Saud May Be in Danger of Falling

from The Daily Bell:
Is ISIS Simply A “Saudi Army In Disguise”? … Something major missing. In recent weeks I have been increasingly unsatisfied by the general explanations about who is actually pulling the strings in the entire Middle East plot or, more precisely, plots, to the point of reexamining my earlier views on the role of Saudi Arabia. – New Eastern Outlook
Dominant Social Theme: The House of Saud is robust and will never fail. Why should it? Its sheiks have all the oil money in the world.
Free-Market Analysis: This interesting article is authored by well-known alternative-media author F. William Engdahl. We wrote about him here. Engdahl’s article is persuasive, even though we have a slightly different point of view. He believes that the Saudi regime is trying to control Middle East oil using military might. The regime intends to gain the ability to fully fix the price of the world’s energy. He also believes this process is underway and that the House of Saud has been successful in driving down the price of oil but overshot the price on the down side. In other words, oil has moved down far harder than the Saudis expected, leaving them in a precarious financial condition.
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