Thursday, December 24, 2015

The Fed Has Created A "Monster" And Just Made A "Dangerous Mistake," Stephen Roach Warns



"By now, it’s an all-too-familiar drill. After an extended period of extraordinary monetary accommodation, the US Federal Reserve has begun the long march back to normalization. A majority of financial market participants applaud this strategy. In fact, it is a dangerous mistake."



"Unstoppable" California Gas Leak Now Being Called Worst Catastrophe Since BP Spill

Since initially reporting on California's Alison Canyon gas leak, more details have emerged on the scale (and potential for no solution) of the problem... "the enormity of the Aliso Canyon gas leak cannot be overstated. Gas is escaping through a ruptured pipe more than 8,000 feet underground, and it shows no signs of stopping." Methane - a greenhouse gas 72 times more impactful in the atmosphere than carbon dioxide - has been leaking with force equivalent “to a volcanic eruption” for about two months now.



Has The Great Carry Unwind Arrived: Yen Surges After Warning USDJPY 100 Coming

Goldman, Decembert 20, 2015: "We think the BoJ is closer to easing further to attempt to achieve a successful reflation than it is to giving up altogether, and so we continue to expect $/JPY higher. We recommend being long $/JPY as part of our 2016 top trade recommendation (along with short EUR/$) and forecast $/JPY at 130 in 12 months"... Three days later, the USDJPY is 100 pips lower.

Best "Santa Rally" In 4 Years Ends With Lump Of Coal









2015 Year In Review (In 1 Cartoon)

Presented with no comment...




When To Buy Stocks

Here’s an early Christmas present. It’s nothing new. And we didn’t spend a lot of money on it. But it’s the thought that counts. Here goes... When you go to buy a stock, you might ask yourself: Is this stock likely to go up? But that’s the wrong question. You don’t know whether it will go up or not. No point pretending. The right question: Has this stock gone down enough?



The Real Reason Behind The Santa Rally

Over the past 20 years, there's been an 87% correlation between S&P performance in 4Q and Holiday Sales. As of right now, the S&P in Dec is now on track to be up - a few days ago it wasn't. Furthermore, the S&P is now up +5.5% above its Sep average. If it holds there, the 20-year regression line below suggests that Holiday Sales will be up +5.4%.



Why The Fed Will Never Succeed

The Fed will never succeed in its attempt to manage inflation and unemployment by varying interest rates. This is because it and its economists do not accept the relationship between, on one side, the money it creates and the bank credit its commercial banks issue out of thin air, and on the other the disruption unsound money causes in the economy. This has been going on since the Fed was created, which makes the question as to whether the Fed was right to raise interest rates recently irrelevant.



Zimbabwe Becomes Beijing's First African Colony With Adoption Of Chinese Yuan

On Monday, Zimbabwe announced that this small, economically devastated country would officially make the Chinese Yuan its legal tender as it seeks to increase trade with Beijing. In exchange for becoming not only a military but also financial colony of China, $40 million of its debts to Beijing would be canceled.  China was delighted it cost it only a $40 million debt write off to acquire its first official African colony.



Japan To Restart Several Nuclear Plants, But Opposition Is Fierce

This won't end well... On Tuesday, Gov. Issei Nishikawa approved the restart of the No. 3 and No. 4 reactors at the plant in Fukui on the Sea of Japan, defying an injunction by the prefecture’s District Court that had been sought by residents living within about 60 miles of the nuclear facility.



In Bizarre Alliance, Russia Teams With The Taliban In ISIS Fight

The fight against ISIS makes for some strange bedfellows. “The Taliban interest objectively coincides with ours. We've already said earlier that we and the Taliban have channels for exchanging information."



Swoosh! Nike Nears Correction - Plunges 9.5% From Post-Earnings Highs

"Great" earnings (ex-FX of course) and an "appealing to a broader retail audience" stock split? Recipe for awesomeness, right? Wrong! Nike is now down almost 10% from its post-earnings peak...



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