Greece “Officially Defaults” March 23, Banks Close.
The
latest report from Morgan Stanley's Graham Secker can be summarized
simply as follows: i) in January everything has disconnected as
traditional linkages between asset classes have broken down, ii) also in
January every major asset class (equities, treasurys, gold, oil) was up materially, iii) such a phenomenon has been seen only 5 times in the past 5 years, iv) a double digit decline followed 3 of the past 4 such surges.
Then again, as Bob Janjuah lamented earlier, when a bunch of
bespectacled economists who have never held a real job in their academic
careers since transplanted with banker blessings to various central
bank buildings, and who continue to plan the fate of the world in
secrecy (a fate that can be summarized as follows: CTRL+P), as the only marginal decision makers, who really cares anymore?
Following the recent downgrades of many of the major European banks and insurers and last year's comments by Fitch
on insurers' inability to pass on losses to policyholders, the
hot-topic of ASSGEN, ALZ, and the rest of the capital-impaired
forced-soakers-up-of-new-issue-demand in the European insurance market
are under new pressure as The WSJ points out today that new 'rightly punitive' capital rules have been watered down.
The 2014 introduction of 'Solvency II' - the insurers' equivalent to
banks' Basel III capital rules - did indeed attempt to create
risk-weighted capital requirements and better balance assets and
liabilities within these firms. However, as Hester Plumridge notes,
regulators bowed to industry pressure (again) adding the ability to shift discount rates to get around low-rate-implied valuations for their annuity streams and the introduction of a 'countercyclical premium' to avoid the growing (and negative) spread between distressed assets and rising liabilities. As Plumridge concludes, "a solvency regime that ignores all European sovereign credit risk looks increasingly unrealistic.
Investors could end up none the wiser." After some systemic
compression, the last week or so has seen insurers start to deteriorate
as perhaps the market will enforce its own capital expectations even
if regulators are unwilling to.
Gold Prices: Central Bank Gold-Buying Increases By 500%
No Euro, No Cry: Swedish krona versus cash chaos
Oil At 5-Week High At $102 Barrel
Gold Fire Sale
International Currencies Increasingly Rejected In The Face Of Inflation
Many Of You Will Not Believe Some Of The Things Americans Are Doing To Survive
Latest PSI Terms Leaked; Imply Greek Redefault Within 2 Years
The first details of the Greek bond deal are leaking out via Reuters, and we now learn the reason for the Greek bond sell off in recent days:- UNDER GREEK DEBT SWAP, PRIVATE SECTOR WILL GET 3% COUPON ON BONDS FROM 2012-20, 3.75% COUPON FROM 2021 ONWARDS [2021... LOL]
- PRIVATE SECTOR WILL ALSO GET A GDP-LINKED ADDITIONAL PAYMENT, CAPPED AT 1 PCT OF THE OUTSTANDING AMOUNT OF NEW BONDS [If it appears that nobody gives a rat's ass about this bullet point, it's because it's true]
- GREEK BANK RECAPITALISATION NEEDS MAY NOW BE AS MUCH AS 50 BLN EUROS-DEBT SUSTAINABILITY ANALYSIS
Tomorrow And Tomorrow And Tomorrow
Once we see what Europe is really going to do, not what they have told us they might do, the real show gets underway. Everything up till now was just a preamble, a mincemeat of words flowing like a unsubstantiated river from mouths full of fluff, orated by the deceptors and laid out on a table where cheese was pointed to as Prime Rib and where radishes were sworn to be asparagus but these days end tomorrow and as sure as the sun rises in the East; tomorrow will arrive. There is the collateral for Finland, the CDS trigger, the “Collective Action Clause, who is really represented by the IIF, the $20Bn budget shortfall, the contribution of the IMF, the methodology for handing Greece the money, possible further notions that Greece has not met its commitments, law suits on the way for the ECB’s subordination of private bond holders and for the “haircut” coercion where different classes of investors have been retroactively applied and for the retroactive implementation of some “CAC”. All of these things are forthcoming regardless of what we find in Europe’s pronouncements so that the lens laid over today’s sun will tomorrow be removed and the glare of the light will be startling in its clarity and reflection.As Everything Disconnects And Everything Is Soaring, Morgan Stanley Issues A Warning
The
latest report from Morgan Stanley's Graham Secker can be summarized
simply as follows: i) in January everything has disconnected as
traditional linkages between asset classes have broken down, ii) also in
January every major asset class (equities, treasurys, gold, oil) was up materially, iii) such a phenomenon has been seen only 5 times in the past 5 years, iv) a double digit decline followed 3 of the past 4 such surges.
Then again, as Bob Janjuah lamented earlier, when a bunch of
bespectacled economists who have never held a real job in their academic
careers since transplanted with banker blessings to various central
bank buildings, and who continue to plan the fate of the world in
secrecy (a fate that can be summarized as follows: CTRL+P), as the only marginal decision makers, who really cares anymore?It's Bear Hunting Season
The ECB and Fed seemed to have pushed Roubini and others into the capitulation. As a rough guess, only about 3 of the up days this year had anything to do with earnings and economic data (the NFP day being the most obvious). The rest were all induced by some political or central bank action. Frankly I’m surprised we weren’t up more in Europe today with the Chinese Bank Reserve Ratio getting cut. At any moment we should get details of all the next steps for the Greek bailouts. We will get to see the ECB swap, the PSI proposal, and retroactive collective action clauses. It will be interesting to see how that works. After the Greek default (yes, bondholders giving up 50% of their notional is a default), it will be interesting to see how Greece does. Hopefully they will actually spend some time trying to figure out alternative ways to finance themselves than the ever more onerous bailout packages from the Troika.Peter Thiel Emerges As Ron Paul's Biggest Super PAC Backer; Bill Gross Next?
While it has been well-documented by now, that even as the campaign of Mitt Romney continues to be funded exclusively by Wall Street legacy firms, that of Ron Paul is largely in the hands of the US military. Yet when it comes to the recently infamous SuperPAC, things have changed. Because as Politico reports, of the roughly $3.4 million total in cash raised by the pro-Paul group Endorse Liberty since its founding on December 20, none other than PayPal cofounder and Clarium Capital chief Peter Thiel has donated $2.6 million. So as the renegade financier, whose opinion on Ben Bernanke and the gold standard is well-known to Zero Hedge regulars emerges as a primary backer of all that is wrong with the status quo, and the Ben Bernanke way of monetary suicide, we wonder who is next? Actually, scratch that: Bill Gross has already made his opinion well known vis-a-vis Ron Paul's candidacy. Isn't it about time the Newport Beach multibillionaire reached into his back pocket and put his money where his mouth is, especially following his tongue in cheek endorsement of Ron Paul for president?European Insurers: How Long Before Capital Denial Becomes Capital Punishment
Following the recent downgrades of many of the major European banks and insurers and last year's comments by Fitch
on insurers' inability to pass on losses to policyholders, the
hot-topic of ASSGEN, ALZ, and the rest of the capital-impaired
forced-soakers-up-of-new-issue-demand in the European insurance market
are under new pressure as The WSJ points out today that new 'rightly punitive' capital rules have been watered down.
The 2014 introduction of 'Solvency II' - the insurers' equivalent to
banks' Basel III capital rules - did indeed attempt to create
risk-weighted capital requirements and better balance assets and
liabilities within these firms. However, as Hester Plumridge notes,
regulators bowed to industry pressure (again) adding the ability to shift discount rates to get around low-rate-implied valuations for their annuity streams and the introduction of a 'countercyclical premium' to avoid the growing (and negative) spread between distressed assets and rising liabilities. As Plumridge concludes, "a solvency regime that ignores all European sovereign credit risk looks increasingly unrealistic.
Investors could end up none the wiser." After some systemic
compression, the last week or so has seen insurers start to deteriorate
as perhaps the market will enforce its own capital expectations even
if regulators are unwilling to.Guest Post: Presidents Day - Why Can't We Nominate Our Own President? We Can, We Are
If the last 12 years have revealed anything, they have shown beyond reasonable doubt that both Status Quo political parties in the U.S. are hopelessly, ruinously corrupt and thus beyond any reform or redemption. We all know why: it now takes millions of dollars to run costly mainstream media election campaigns, and the only source for contributions of that scale is the financial/corporate Elite. It doesn't matter how you arrange the taxonomy of the financial aristocracy that rules the nation or how you subdivide it--old money, new money, family money, corporate money, etc.-- the bottom line is these campaign contributions are viewed by the aristocratic donors as investments that yield gargantuan returns in tax breaks, subsidies, bailouts, sweetheart contracts, "get out of jail free" cards for the shadow banking system, and so on.Gold Prices: Central Bank Gold-Buying Increases By 500%
No Euro, No Cry: Swedish krona versus cash chaos
Oil At 5-Week High At $102 Barrel
Gold Fire Sale
International Currencies Increasingly Rejected In The Face Of Inflation
Many Of You Will Not Believe Some Of The Things Americans Are Doing To Survive
SBSS 13: Baby Boomer's Last Stand
The Doc at SilverDoctors - 30 minutes ago
*The Silver Bullet & the Silver Shield Video series continues with Part 13:
Baby Boomer's Last Stand *
Watch part 12 10 &11 part 9 part 8 part 7 parts 1-6
Read more »
David Morgan, Chris Duane Talk Silver With Steve Quayle for 3 Hours
The Doc at SilverDoctors - 1 hour ago
Last night Chris Duane from Dont-tread-on.me and David Morgan talked silver
with Steve Quayle for 3 hours on the Omega Man Radio Show.
Those lucky enough to have the day off with some time to spare can listen
to the interview below.
*The Doc's full interview with Eric Sprott should be up in another few
hours as well. *
Read more »
China to the Rescue Once Again
Trader Dan at Trader Dan's Market Views - 2 hours ago
While the markets are closed for the President's Day holiday here in the
US, the futures are open for trading in some markets. Those markets are
reacing to overnight news that China is lowering the Reserve Ratio
Requirement for its banks after having spent most of last year raising it.
Market watchers are interpreting this as a loosening of the monetary
strings in China and reading it as bullish for the commodity sector as a
whole while the equity guys (who never need a reason to be wildly bullish)
are using the news to goose the S&P futures higher.
Risk aversion is getting tossed ... more »
Sathyam Vada, Dharmam Chara
–Ciga I
My Dear Friends,
China is spending $25 billion on iron ore in Africa. The West will have no interest until China controls the greatest bread basket for both minerals and food.
How damn dumb can Western leaders be? Volcker won it all. Greenspan gave it all back. Bernanke is the bag man of blame for Greenspan’s activities.
Now we are walking away from the greatest mineral and food opportunity on the planet, Africa. We are giving it all to China and the Middle East because, in my opinion, simple racial prejudice.
This is a mortal sin against the interests of our Western children and grandchildren.
Regards,
Jim
Jim Sinclair’s Commentary
Another March to War? POSTED: February 17, 9:40 AM ET
MSM is getting America ready? Sound a little like "Remember the Maine."
Another March to War? POSTED: February 17, 9:40 AM ET
As a journalist, there’s a buzz you can detect once the normal restraints in your business have been loosened, a smell of fresh chum in the waters, urging us down the road to war. Many years removed from the Iraq disaster, that smell is back, this time with Iran.
You can just feel it: many of the same newspapers and TV stations we saw leading the charge in the Bush years have gone back to the attic and are dusting off their war pom-poms. CNN’s house blockhead, the Goldman-trained ex-finance professional Erin Burnett, came out with a doozie of a broadcast yesterday, a Rumsfeldian jeremiad against the Iranian threat would have fit beautifully in the Saddam’s-sending-drones-at-New-York halcyon days of late 2002. Here’s how the excellent Glenn Greenwald described Burnett’s rant:
It’s the sort of thing you would produce if you set out to create a mean-spirited parody of mindless, war-hungry, fear-mongering media stars, but you wouldn’t dare go this far because you’d want the parody to have a feel of realism to it, and this would be way too extreme to be believable. She really hauled it all out: WMDs! Terrorist sleeper cells in the U.S. controlled by Tehran! Iran’s long-range nuclear missiles reaching our homeland!!!! She almost made the anti-Muslim war-mongering fanatic she brought on to interview, Rep. Peter King, appear sober and reasonable by comparison.
More…
Jim Sinclair’s Commentary
Before you pay make sure the entity demanding the funds in fact owns your mortgage.
If you fail to do that you might end up having a second demand to pay another party that requires legal adjudication.
Foreclosure abuse rampant across U.S., experts say By Tim Reid
Fri Feb 17, 2012 12:34pm EST
(Reuters) – A report this week showing rampant foreclosure abuse in San Francisco reflects similar levels of lender fraud and faulty documentation across the United States, say experts and officials who have done studies in other parts of the country.
The audit of almost 400 foreclosures in San Francisco found that 84 percent of them appeared to be illegal, according to the study released by the California city on Wednesday.
"The audit in San Francisco is the most detailed and comprehensive that has been done – but it’s likely those numbers are comparable nationally," Diane Thompson, an attorney at the National Consumer Law Center, told Reuters.
Across the country from California, Jeff Thingpen, register of deeds in Guildford County, North Carolina, examined 6,100 mortgage documents last year, from loan notes to foreclosure paperwork.
Of those documents, created between January 2008 and December 2010, 4,500 showed signature irregularities, a telltale sign of the illegal practice of "robosigning" documents.
More…
Jim,
I reviewed this today and feel it might be a good reminder and item to review for the family.
www.jsmineset.com/2011/11/14/keynote-speech-at-sydney-gold-symposium-14-15-november-2011-by-alf-field/
In deepest appreciation !!
CIGA Eddie
By Greg Hunter’s USAWatchdog.com
Dear CIGAs,
It seems every chance the mainstream media (MSM) gets, it tells us things really aren’t that bad. For example, the headline from the Associated Press (AP) said, “Consumer prices on the rise, but inflation outlook is benign.” Who approves the headlines at the AP? Prices are rising, but there is no inflation? Aren’t rising prices the main ingredient of inflation? The story goes on to say, “Consumer prices rose modestly in January on higher costs for food, gas, rent and clothing. But economists downplayed the increase, saying inflation will likely ease in the coming months as prices for raw materials level off.” (Click here for the complete AP story.)
I wonder where the people who write for the MSM shop for groceries and buy their gasoline. Maybe they have a time machine and magically go back where prices are a lot lower for everything. But for those for us eating and heating our homes today, things are not getting cheaper and inflation is a problem! Look at this from a different AP story where the headline says it all, “Gasoline prices are highest ever for this time of year.” The story goes on to say, “Gasoline prices have never been higher this time of the year. At $3.53 a gallon, prices are already up 25 cents since Jan. 1. And experts say they could reach a record $4.25 a gallon by late April. ‘You’re going to see a lot more staycations this year,” says Michael Lynch, president of Strategic Energy & Economic Research. “When the price gets anywhere near $4, you really see people react.” (Click here to read the complete AP story.)
Do the writers at the AP read their own stories? Do these reporters not talk to each other or read the rundown (a list of stories every reporter is working on.) Do the editors for the AP not want some sort of continuity? I don’t have the answers to any of these questions, but those are the ones I am asking to myself. In another story from CNBC a little more than a week ago, the headline read, “Get Ready for $5 Gas This Year: Ex-Shell CEO.” (Click here for the complete CNBC story.) Do you think this is signaling the “inflation outlook is benign”? Oh, Iran just cut off oil exports to French and British firms. A report from Reuters said, “Iran has stopped selling crude to British and French companies, the oil ministry said on Sunday, in a retaliatory measure against fresh EU sanctions on the Islamic state’s lifeblood, oil.” (Click here for more on the Reuter’s story.) This is around 700,000 barrels a day cut off to the EU from Iran. Do you think this will make gasoline cheaper in the coming weeks and months? This is financial war, but what if there is a shooting war? You think gasoline prices will be heading south or go up to that $5 a gallon mark?
More…
Dear CIGAs,
It seems every chance the mainstream media (MSM) gets, it tells us things really aren’t that bad. For example, the headline from the Associated Press (AP) said, “Consumer prices on the rise, but inflation outlook is benign.” Who approves the headlines at the AP? Prices are rising, but there is no inflation? Aren’t rising prices the main ingredient of inflation? The story goes on to say, “Consumer prices rose modestly in January on higher costs for food, gas, rent and clothing. But economists downplayed the increase, saying inflation will likely ease in the coming months as prices for raw materials level off.” (Click here for the complete AP story.)
I wonder where the people who write for the MSM shop for groceries and buy their gasoline. Maybe they have a time machine and magically go back where prices are a lot lower for everything. But for those for us eating and heating our homes today, things are not getting cheaper and inflation is a problem! Look at this from a different AP story where the headline says it all, “Gasoline prices are highest ever for this time of year.” The story goes on to say, “Gasoline prices have never been higher this time of the year. At $3.53 a gallon, prices are already up 25 cents since Jan. 1. And experts say they could reach a record $4.25 a gallon by late April. ‘You’re going to see a lot more staycations this year,” says Michael Lynch, president of Strategic Energy & Economic Research. “When the price gets anywhere near $4, you really see people react.” (Click here to read the complete AP story.)
Do the writers at the AP read their own stories? Do these reporters not talk to each other or read the rundown (a list of stories every reporter is working on.) Do the editors for the AP not want some sort of continuity? I don’t have the answers to any of these questions, but those are the ones I am asking to myself. In another story from CNBC a little more than a week ago, the headline read, “Get Ready for $5 Gas This Year: Ex-Shell CEO.” (Click here for the complete CNBC story.) Do you think this is signaling the “inflation outlook is benign”? Oh, Iran just cut off oil exports to French and British firms. A report from Reuters said, “Iran has stopped selling crude to British and French companies, the oil ministry said on Sunday, in a retaliatory measure against fresh EU sanctions on the Islamic state’s lifeblood, oil.” (Click here for more on the Reuter’s story.) This is around 700,000 barrels a day cut off to the EU from Iran. Do you think this will make gasoline cheaper in the coming weeks and months? This is financial war, but what if there is a shooting war? You think gasoline prices will be heading south or go up to that $5 a gallon mark?
More…
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