Wednesday, February 22, 2012

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Companies With Mineable Ounces Soundest Investment For Coming Volatility


My Dear Friends,

Today was long and enlightening for me. I made multiple meetings in New York City with significant money managers.
During these meeting the price of gold rose above the $1764 level which I have repeatedly told you is as important as $524.90 was when gold broke out of its arithmetic up trend and entered its first power up trend. I wish to remind you $1764 is the point where gold moves out of its power up trend and enters into its geometric uptrend. I have also assured you the central banks and especially the US Fed via the BIS and Exchange Stabilization Fund seek not to depress gold, but only to prevent it from running so hard on the upside as to expose the true condition of Western world finance.
There has been significant interventions in the gold price at Angel $1764 with unexpected other central bank accumulation resulting in inexplicable strength in the $1710-$1720 area.
As the strong dollar policy is clearly a policy of softening a long term decline, the interventions in gold have been to modify a desire in the market itself to go ballistic on the upside.
If there was any startling realization today it was that among true geniuses and maturity in major money managers there is a grave lack of understanding concerning the forces at work in the financial can kick of the century now about to take place.
Only one person today knows that the war with Iran starts when Iran is frozen out of the Swift system. In terms of finance, that is a nuclear attack. It was just that threat alone that made Swiss banks destroy their tradition of privacy and send their loyal clients to a mass execution, assuming that they were cheating on taxes.
Not one person I spoke to today ever asked themselves who determines if credit event is a default and what that means to the mountain of credit default swaps that US banks have vended via their non US subsidiaries. By this method the count of these OTC derivatives by the US Controller of the Currency is way short of the true amount of debt insurance banks have sold.
Only one man understood what a commodity currency was and had studied where currency induced cost push inflation had produced severe price inflation during periods of awful economic conditions brought on by all types of debt failure.
I am speaking with leaders in finance who control immense sums of money. If these people do not understand the forces at work what makes you think politicians or their college professor appointees to central banks have a better understanding? The answer is simple – they do not!

Let me share with you the conclusion I took away from today’s luncheon.

1. What is going to happen is going to take place in March somewhere between the 14th and 20th in all probability.
2. What will determine the fate of markets is what action China does or does not take in providing funds to IMF bailout funds.
3. I believe China can and will extract significant trade and other benefits for their presence.
4. I believe China will want the same immunity that the IMF just took for themselves on sovereign debt in liquidation.
5. Greek gold will be held hostage to their debt.
6. That will accelerate the modest trend of repatriation of gold for the cellar of the New York Fed to nations like Germany that are certainly able to store their own wealth.
7. There will be an acceleration in the trend of utilization of other currencies than the dollar for contracting internationally regarding goods, service, oil and minerals.
8. I do not agree that we are at the doorstep now of major changes in the international monetary system. That comes in June of 2015.
9. I am certain that we are on the immediate threshold of the monster kick of the financial can down the road that is a dead end.
10. I believe China and the US Fed will assist in that great last can kick that backfires.
11. I am certain that I am in the right business and that business is the identification and accumulation of gold as gold is the ultimate survivor of what is about to happen.
12. I am certain the gold industry is mad as a Danbury hatter in selling their product the moment they produce it.
13. I am certain the gold and silver industry is in a transition back to the dividend producers they once were.
14. I am certain that the volatility in gold, silver and equities we have already seen is nothing compared to what is about to happen.
15. The last man standing among asset categories as the new monetary system is introduced sometime post June of 2015 will be gold and gold alone.
Therefore the soundest investment now is what I, and others (McEwen) are doing in building companies whose inventories of goods to be sold are mineable ounces of gold and other precious metals in the ground moving towards production.
The immense shorts in this industry group are whacked out noobies without a clue.
New mines need never pollute. Old mines can never be cleaned up. Open pit and surface enrichment is the type of gold that will be least effected by rising costs.

Respectfully,
Jim




RED ALERT – Possible False Flag: NBC Reports ‘Threatening Letters Claiming to Have “Pathogens” Sent to Senators, Media’

by SGT:
NBC in New York City is reporting about “letter by mail” attacks which are earily similar to the 2001 anthrax attacks on Congress and the media in the weeks following 9/11.
Remain vigilant for possible false flag events which could be used to place blame on “domestic terrorists” or Patriot groups.
You may recall that subsequent investigation into the 2001 anthrax attacks revealed that the source of the super weapons grade strain of anthrax used in the attacks was the biological weapons facility at Fort Detrick, MD – NOT a cave in Afghanistan. Conveniently, the anthrax attacks which began just one week after 911 helped kill off any philisophical opposition to the Patriot Act which was rushed through and passed by Congress just weeks later on October 25, 2001. Problem. Reaction. Solution.
As former government biological weapons legislator Dr. Franics A. Boyle warned in 2008, “criminal elements of the government “can and will” use bio-weapons to scare and terrorize Americans when it is politically convenient.” Here’s the story from NBC New York:
Threatening Letters Claiming to Have “Pathogens” Sent to Senators, Media
by Jonathan Dienst, Shimon Prokupecz and Joe Valiquette, NBC New York:
The FBI and NYPD are investigating threatening letters that claim to contain dangerous pathogens sent to media companies and U.S. senators, law enforcement officials tell NBC New York.
According to law enforcement officials, the person sent letters to Jon Stewart and Stephen Colbert, of “The Daily Show” and “The Colbert Report,” claiming more letters had been sent to 100 senators and various media companies, including The New York Times, Fox News and NPR.
The writer, who voices anger over corporate greed and the state of the U.S. economy, said some of the letters contained harmful substances at random.
The letters are believed to have been mailed from Oregon and are signed “MAB.”
Read More @ NBCNewYork.com




Ron Paul Highlights – Arizona Debate CNN 22.Feb.2012

 

Biderman’s Daily Edge 2/22/2012: Housing Experiencing Second Annual False Dawn

 

55 Interesting Facts About The U.S. Economy In 2012

from The Economic Collapse Blog:
How is the U.S. economy doing in 2012? Unfortunately, it is not doing nearly as well as the mainstream media would have you believe. Yes, things have stabilized for the moment but this bubble of false hope will not last for long. The long-term trends that are ripping our economy and our financial system to shreds continue unabated. When you step back and look at the broader picture, it is hard to deny that we are in really bad shape and that things are rapidly getting worse. Later on in this article you will find a list of interesting facts that show the true state of the U.S. economy. Hopefully many of you will find this list to be a useful tool that you can share with your family and friends. Each day the foundations of our economy crumble a little bit more, and we need to wake up as many Americans as we can to what is really going on while there is still time. We have accumulated way too much debt, we consume far more wealth than we produce, millions of our jobs are being shipped overseas, our big cities are decaying, family budgets are being squeezed more than ever, poverty is rampant and we have raised several generations of Americans that expect the government to fix all of their problems. The U.S. economy is at a crossroads, and the decisions that the American people make in 2012 are going to be incredibly important.
Read More @ TheEconomicCollapseBlog.com




The Consequences Of War On The US Economy

by Joshua Brown, BusinessInsider.com:

Psst…wanna learn something today?

The Institute for Economics and Peace is out with a monumental piece of research on how wars affect the US economy…
Using data from the Bureau of Economic Analysis, figure one shows the composition of U.S. GDP in consumption, investment, government spending and net exports and imports in per-capita terms. It can be seen the war years of 1941 to 1945 saw one of the most significant short term increases in economic growth in the history of the U.S. economy. The top line in blue is GDP, and the increase around World War II is very visible. This was driven by government spending denominated in purple.
Read More @ BusinessInsider.com




MUST READ: A Hidden World, Growing Beyond Control

[Ed. Note: Remember that 'Shadow Government' piece I wrote the other day? If you need a refresher here's the link.]
by Dana Priest and William M. Arkin, Washington Post:

The top-secret world the government created in response to the terrorist attacks of Sept. 11, 2001, has become so large, so unwieldy and so secretive that no one knows how much money it costs, how many people it employs, how many programs exist within it or exactly how many agencies do the same work.
These are some of the findings of a two-year investigation by The Washington Post that discovered what amounts to an alternative geography of the United States, a Top Secret America hidden from public view and lacking in thorough oversight. After nine years of unprecedented spending and growth, the result is that the system put in place to keep the United States safe is so massive that its effectiveness is impossible to determine.
The investigation’s other findings include:
Read More @ WashingtonPost.com




Here Is the Plain Truth About Greece

by Grant Williams, FinancialSense.com:

“And now the end is near
And so I face the final curtain
My friend I’ll say it clear
I’ll state my case of which I’m certain…”

The plain truth is this:
  • Greece cannot pay its current debts back. Ever.
  • More money is NOT the answer.
  • Greece cannot even begin to recover while still chained to the Euro and unable to devalue.
  • Greek citizens will NOT suddenly decide to pay their taxes.
  • Greece’s exit from the EU will be incredibly painful and the country will likely go into a depression.
Read More @ FinancialSense.com




Spain Appeals to Brussels For Easier Deficit Reduction Targets

Spain has appealed to Brussels for softer deficit-reduction targets, raising fears that Europe’s rescue strategies are unworkable in the bigger eurozone economies and not just Greece.
by Louise Armitstead, Telegraph.co.uk:

Prime minister Mariano Rajoy has reportedly asked European officials to raise Spain’s debt reduction target to 5pc, claiming that reducing it to 4.4pc will be impossible.
The ongoing damage of the debt crisis – and the German-led austerity drive – could be laid bare on Thursday if the European Commission (EC) unveils a wholesale revision of the eurozone’s growth forecasts, as expected. Experts said the EC is preparing to cut its growth forecasts following the radical spending cuts, tax increases and job losses across Europe.
The figures could force politicians to revise the deficit targets and strict budgetary rules in the fiscal pact just agreed by the European Union.
Spain’s finance minister Luis de Guindos told reporters that his country’s request to lift its debt targets would not stand out as unusual because there would be a “general reconsideration of targets across the whole of the EU”.
Read More @ Telegraph.co.uk





Buying The Vote: 12 Facts About Super PACs That Will Blow Your Mind

from End of The American Dream:

In American politics, it takes an enormous amount of money to win campaigns, and the rise of the “Super PACs” is allowing the wealthy to exert even more influence over the political process than they did before. When you examine the results of federal elections over the past several decades, you quickly discover that the candidate that raises the most money almost always wins. Wealthy individuals are limited by law as to how much money they can give directly to a political campaign, but there are no limits on how much money they can give to Super PACs. During the 2012 election season, some of these Super PACs actually have more money than the campaigns of the candidates that they support do. Buying the vote is not illegal in America, and these Super PACs are buying huge amounts of advertising in key states. Unfortunately, most Americans have never learned to think for themselves. Instead, they let the television do much of their thinking for them. If their trusted friend, the television, tells them to vote a certain way, then that is what they are likely to do. Super PACs are much more likely to run negative ads than the actual candidates are, and we have already seen very negative ads dramatically move the poll numbers in some of the states. Sadly, as long as very negative ads keep working people are going to keep using them.
Read More @ EndOfTheAmericanDream.com




Guest Post: The Straw That Potentially Breaks The Camels Back

oil-price-gasoline-022212Back in December I penned an article about the potential for gasoline prices to rise quickly to catch up with surging oil prices.  We said then "If we look at just the nominal price data going back to 1990 we can see that there is indeed a very high correlation between oil prices and gasoline prices.   While divergences from each other do occur on occassion those divergences tend not to last for very long with gasoline usually correcting towards the price of oil."   That is precisely what has happened since the near $3 per gallon of gasoline this summer, which was an effective $60 billion tax break for consumers during the much anticipated retail shopping season, to near $3.50 a gallon today.  That 16% rise in gasoline has now effectively wiped out the entire payroll tax cut being extended into 2012. There has been a lot of media commentary as of late about the recovery in the economy.  The dangerous assumption being made here is that the recent upticks in the economic data have come primarily at the expense of inventory restocking and end of year buying of capital goods by businesses to lock in tax credits.  Extrapolating those bounces in the data well into the future can prove to be disappointing.  Yet this is exactly what the the President's current budget, which has been presented to Congress, has done.  That budget plans for 3% or stronger economic growth over the next 6 years.  This is a pretty lofty goal which considering last years growth was a paltry 1.7%.  However, in order to acheive a 3% plus growth rate the consumer is going to have to should 2.1% of that load through consumption.




Goldman Goes Long WTI

Goldman's David Greely is no Tom Stolper. In fact his recommendations have been correct more often than not. Which is why we believe that when the market learns that the Goldman commodities strategist just opened a long September WTI position at $107.55, it will merely provide that extra oomph to send WTI up, up and away. Or maybe not: this could be another one of the "fade Goldman" calls. Alas, with the real impact of the recent $2 trillion balance sheet expansion becomes truly felt we have a distinct feeling Goldman is quite right on this one. Evil, evil speculators.





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Ellis Martin Report: Jim Sinclair-Value Buying in a Sideways Market and While Wall Street is Stimulated, Main Street is Forlorn


Dear CIGAs,

The following is the written version of an interview I did with Ellis Martin of www.EllisMartinReport.com today. Click the link at the bottom of the article to read the full transcript.

TEMR:  Join me know for a candid interview with America’s preeminent expert on precious metals, commodities and foreign currencies, Jim Sinclair.  Mr. Sinclair is the President of sponsor, Tanzanian Royalty Exploration Corporation, trading on the Amex division of the New York Stock Exchange under the symbol TRX. Tanzanian Royalty focuses primarily on gold assets strategically located in the Lake Victoria Greenstone Belt of Tanzania, one of the most prolific gold producing regions in the world. The company acquired a 55% interest in the advanced stage Buckreef Gold Mine development project which could see commercial production in 2014. Previously to helming Tanzanian Royalty, Mr. Sinclair was the founder of the Sinclair Group of Companies which offered brokerage services in stocks, bonds, et cetera, operating in New York, Chicago, Kansas City, Toronto, London and Geneva.   He was an advisor to Hunt Oil and the Hunt family from 1981 through 1984 for the liquidation of their silver position as a prerequisite for the $1 billion loan arranged by former Fed Chairman, Paul Volker. Mr. Sinclair was a general partner and member of the executive committee of two New York Stock Exchange firms and the President of a commodity clearing firm as well as Global Arbitrage, a derivative dealer in metals and currencies. And, we’re pleased to have him as a weekly guest on The Ellis Martin Report.  What do you want to talk about today Jim?

Jim Sinclair:    We have had key developments in terms of form of settlement nearing in terms of your Greece situation. That has impact on to what is its mechanism and what will that mechanism mean to the general markets as well as equities and the gold market. The announcement of the Chinese of their interest in being part of a euro plan and that demonstrating the IMFs both desire and intention to bring in outside funds in an ongoing supply of liquidity. We also have a great deal of opinions being given on the dollar versus the euro and the implications of some form of resolution even if that resolution eventually includes Greece leaving the European Union. So, there are many subjects that we could approach. I’ll leave it to yourself Ellis.

TEMR: If Greece does leave the European Union it’s something that perhaps the euro can withstand?

Jim Sinclair: You know, let’s look at it and let’s just think about it. What would the euro be without Greece? Would it be weaker or stronger? And, there really is an argument that all other things being even, and that’s a big mouthful, but all other things being even that the euro would in fact be stronger without Greece because of the nature of the Greek population. I mean, when the Department of Finance goes on strike that’s got to tell you something. It’s not an easy problem to fix. So, there’s a strong possibility that general opinion once again has it backwards Because general opinion would say, oh my goodness, if they’re cut down to a 70% maybe no default and Greece voluntarily and in an orderly way exits the euro that’s not so good because look it’s taking away from what the currency unit is and it might start others thinking the same way. I think the real answer to that is that if today Greece was not part of the euro and liquidity had been injected into the system to overcome the impact of the final resolve of what Greek debt is worth be that 30% or zero the euro would be stronger not weaker. And, again that’s something that should be given good consideration. But, the problem goes beyond Greece, I mean, if everything remained equal. It’s very hard for us to accept that one nation in a union would get treatment as Greece has and that more strict requirements would be executed in let’s say Spain, Portugal, Italy, et cetera. So, we’re going to have a continuing drama. But, I think that the near-term resolve of that drama is a combination of liquidity, which is good for the general equities market and also good for gold. We’ve been on that subject over the last couple of weeks and it seems to be holding up to a degree. I mean, right now you have the dollar, as we said, is in an oversold condition but that there was significant supply between 80 and 82 on the USDX. And, the relationship generally would be, well, if the dollars’ going to firm then gold should weaken. I think we’re going to look at that in degrees. I think there might be less of a degree of that relationship rather than more. I think that’s really being demonstrated now even though gold is technically negative on the short-term and the dollar has not yet really established a confirmed positive breakout from the recent decline. I think that the relationship is going to be a little less super glued than it was before. So, generally, I don’t join in those that are very concerned about the equities market except for short reaction, general equities. And, as far as gold is concerned I think the real range will be $1,700.00 to $2,110.00. But, right now it’s $1,650.00 to $1,764.00 where bull camp and the bear camp stand.
Click here to read the full interview…

 

 

The Golden Angels

Sinclair32
My Dear Friends,
The Angel at $1764 is very real, not only as a price magnet, but in implications of surpassing it for a second time.
Expect a war at Angel $1764. Expect it to be surpassed in time.
The gold bears are bonkers. The ones that know it has much higher price objectives are the craziest.
Why trade your anchor against the wind in the storm of centuries?
Respectfully,
Jim





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