Tuesday, February 21, 2012

Here Is Why The Dow Just Passed 13,000

Wondering why the DJIA just passed 13K again? Wonder no more: as the chart below shows it is entirely due to the nearly $7 trillion pumped by global central banks into the world stock markets just in the past 4 years. As Sean Corrigan from Diapason notes, the aggregate global central bank balance sheet has doubled in four years, after doubling in the 5 years before that. We would add that with the entire centrally planned ponzi scheme hell bent on preserving the illusion of nominal gains, global liquidity is now fungibly sloshing from one market to another with absolutely zero resistance whatsoever. At this rate, it should double again in 3 years, then 2, and so on. Will the Dow hit 52K in 5 years in that case? Why most certainly. Just ask any remaining citizens of the Weimar Republic. They know all too well about exponential stock market rises. They also know absolutely everything about the self-delusion that comes with chasing NOMINAL numbers. Oh, and before we forget, expressed in spot gold price, the central bank aggregate tally has moved from being the equivalent of 10 billion oz of gold, to just 8 billion. Guess what is 20% underpriced.





As Dow Passes 13,000 In Nominal Terms, Here Is The "Real" Picture

Three charts that perhaps will calm the nominal euphoria as Dow 13000 screams across the screens. Since May 2008, the Dow is unchanged in price and down 50% in 'real' gold terms. The picture is just as disheartening from the start of 2011 and 2012. Next stop Dow 20,000 and Gold 20,000?





Gold Surges As Market Remembers Definition Of "Dilution"

Yesterday, when charting the global multi-trillion central bank stealth reliquification (aka the primary driver for the market to surge 20% in the past several months, and since "the market, or Russell 2000 is the economy" just as the ChairSatan, to result in what naive commentators define as an economic bounce), we said "As a reminder, when gold was at $1900 last summer, central banks had pumped about $2 trillion less into the markets. We expect the market to grasp this discrepancy shortly." With gold about $30 bucks higher, the market is finally starting to "grasp it", and is now back to $1755, as silver passes $34.






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5 Tips to Find the Cheapest Gas Prices Thanks Chema
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Gold & Silver Break Above Cartel Cap

The Doc at SilverDoctors - 17 minutes ago
[image: Live 24 hours silver chart [ Kitco Inc. ]]*Gold and silver have just burst through the firm cartel cap that have held the metals in check under $1750 and $34 for the past 2+ weeks. * After vaulting higher on the COMEX open, then tapping the ceiling at $34 for several hours, *silver has finally cleared the cartel's cap at $34, running to $34.28.* Don't be surprised if the cartel attempts to hammer the metal back below $34 after today's fix and the end of reporting for this week's COT. Silver MUST be kept from breaking out and clearing $35 in order to prevent a clear breakou... more »
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Gloves About To Come Off In Silver?

Eric De Groot at Eric De Groot - 28 minutes ago
Accumulation by the "strong hands" during the 2011 D-wave decline was impressive. Silver's diffusion index (DI) reading of 95, second only to 97 recorded during the Great Financial Panic of 2008, reveals the strength of the accumulation (see chart 1). Yet investors appear to have forgotten that silver nearly quintupled from $10 to $40+ once the invisible hand regained control of the trend in... [[ This is a content summary only. Visit my website for full links, other content, and more! ]] more »

 

I Don`t Own Any US Equities

Admin at Jim Rogers Blog - 1 hour ago
"I don’t own any U.S. equities." - *in a recent Bloomberg TV interview* *Related, SPDR S&P 500 ETF (SPY), iShares Russell 2000 Index ETF (IWM), PowerShares QQQ Trust ETF (QQQ)* *Jim Rogers is an author, financial commentator and successful international investor. He has been frequently featured in Time, The New York Times, Barron’s, Forbes, Fortune, The Wall Street Journal, The Financial Times and is a regular guest on Bloomberg and CNBC.*





Same Time, Same Place - Greek Labor Unions Waste No Time In Scheduling Tomorrow's Athens Protest

That didn't take long. From Athens News: "Greece's two biggest labor unions, GSEE and ADEDY, on Tuesday announced plans for a protest rally on Syntagma Square on Wednesday. Starting at 4 p.m., the protest march is scheduled to coincide with a vote in Parliament on an emergency bill aimed at slashing state spending further through cuts to pensions and salaries, to which Greece is bound by its most recent bailout agreement." Parliaments is planning on further spending cuts? To what? Zero? Negative? And one can bet their bottom dollar, the tax collectors, already urged to increase their efficiency by 200%, will be present, and certainly not tripling their work output while peacefully consuming lungfulls of tear gas.
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Gold eWave Projection

Eric De Groot at Eric De Groot - 2 hours ago
Hi Eric Here's one you might enjoy. sharelynx.com Regards Nick Special Donation To Insights Contribute to Insights By March 10th, One Silver Eagle Will Be Purchased For My U10 Girls Soccer Team For Every $100 Donated To Insights By March 10th (click for details) Thank you for your support, Eric [[ This is a content summary only. Visit my website for full links, other content, and more! ]]





The Eurogroup Statement - Some Thoughts And Questions

It is hard to read the document without a sense that the Troika is no longer “helping” Greece, but running Greece. You think they would have chosen not to specifically use the phrase “permanent presence on the ground in Greece” given the connotation of “boots on the ground”. Then there is the focus on the “escrow” account.  Why is there a need to pre-fund each quarters debt service payments. Add to this the Eurosystem 'profit' distribution, the PSI and CA changes, and the NCBs not charging interest on GGBs? We will now see what the market has “priced in” but we think it has priced in too much, and there will be roadblocks to this deal going through, with PSI in particular being a potential problem.
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Eurozone approves new $173B bailout for Greece

Eric De Groot at Eric De Groot - 2 hours ago
The Fed quietly loans over $1 trillion to the ECB in December. $1.5 trillion available for lending to European banks by early 2012. European banks through the power of fractional reserved banking will leverage this number to $14 trillion. The European banks borrow these funds at 1% and lend just over 4%. This subsidized money flow, carefully orchestrated to prevent calling it a bailout, is... [[ This is a content summary only. Visit my website for full links, other content, and more! ]]





Meanwhile, China Moves From Currency Wars To Trade Wars

As markets replay the same identical reaction to the same identical Greek news that we saw back on July 21, 2011 (and we all know where that went), something else entirely and more troubling is going on behind the scenes. Because as the world was transfixed on regurgitated news out of Greece, which will without a shadow of a doubt end up with a far worse 2020 debt/GDP scenario than the IMF's downside case per the sustainability report (first posted in its entirety here on Zero Hedge last night, and which assumes just a 1% decline in Greek 2013 GDP), China just escalated currency wars into outright trade wars. Because as China Daily reports, "Chinese exports are set to get a tax boost." Translated: even as China pushes the CNY higher in infinitesimal and irrelevant increments to appease US Congress, it has just taken out the trade stimulus bazooka. Why? "Export tax rebates will be increased this year in response to an export decline triggered by the European debt crisis. The move, which Commerce Ministry officials said will be implemented when the time is appropriate, will be the first increase since 2009." Still think Europe is fixed? China's answer: nope.
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I Like Real Estate In The U.S.

Admin at Marc Faber Blog - 3 hours ago
I like real estate in the U.S...Just buy a house. - *in ETF Daily News* *Marc Faber is an international investor known for his uncanny predictions of the stock market and futures markets around the world.*





Greek CDS Trigger Priced In

As the Greek parliament supposedly votes on the introduction of CACs into the outstanding Greek government bonds (governed under Greek law), the Greek bond and credit derivative market has reacted strongly. The price for the basis package (buying the Greek bond and simultaneously buying credit protection on that bond) has jumped to six-month highs and Greek CDS has broken to 73% upfront (record highs). Prices of some GGBs are up today - driven by technical demand for bond-CDS basis traders and also demand for some of the more liquid UK-law bonds - but most are down with the short-end suffering the greatest losses. The bottom line is this shift in the CDS and bond market for Greece suggests a very high likelihood of a credit event 'trigger' in the not-too-distant future and while net notionals are manageable and collateralized, there is always gap days (like today) which mean big cash needs for collateral managers and the unknowable impact of the daisy-chain of gross notionals to worry about.
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I Expect The Renminbi To Double Or Triple In The Next Decade Or Two

Admin at Jim Rogers Blog - 3 hours ago
I own the renminbi. Every time I can, I buy more renminbi. I expect the renminbi to double or triple in the next decade or two. - *in Bloomberg* Topics: currencies, forex, investing, yuan *Jim Rogers is an author, financial commentator and successful international investor. He has been frequently featured in Time, The New York Times, Barron’s, Forbes, Fortune, The Wall Street Journal, The Financial Times and is a regular guest on Bloomberg and CNBC.*





For Greece, "Tomorrow" Has Arrived

The day dawns with a deal for Greece that is full of smoke and mirrors; lies and deceptions. It is a deal pretty much as expected and, as I have said before, now the realities are going to be confronted. Europe has spun the agreement and the Euro has rallied some and the S&P futures are up but the next few weeks, I am afraid, will hold some serious disappointments. The page turns today because now we are about to confront not what is told to us but the actuality of what has been presented to us and just what will happen as a result.
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The Unexpected Usually Means Pay Attention

Eric De Groot at Eric De Groot - 3 hours ago

The mean price decline for the D-wave was $1529.50/ounce. The low thus far was $1531. An interesting aspect of this forecast turned out to be time. The mean time forecast was March 6th. The December 29th low came much sooner than expected (see table 1) Table 1: D-wave Analysis This unexpected outcome suggests either further downside to come or the forces driving gold higher have... [[ This is a content summary only. Visit my website for full links, other content, and more! ]]





ECB Preparing To Close Liquidity Spigot?

With the hopes and dreams of every long-only manager and beta-chaser now resting on the broad shoulders of nominal-wealth-creators at the European Central Bank and its LTRO 2 offering, today's news from Reuters that 'powerful members of the ECB's council are privately hoping demand will fall well short of the EUR1tn that many expect' confirms their hope that it will be the last. Critically, as we have discussed before, markets are becoming used to the pump and will expect endless LTRO (especially given the moves in bank stock prices - while credit has underperformed significantly in the last week or two) and central bank sources tell Reuters 'they are worried that banks will become too reliant on ECB funds'. This is exactly the unintended consequence we warned about as the banks will become less incentivized to lend and create credit to drive the real economy (even as the nominal economy - or equity market) surges. The implicitly hawkish stance increasingly being taken by the ECB as Weidmann warns of the 'too generous' supply of cheap/free-money should prompt concerns that the ECB will close the liquidity spigot sooner than consensus hopes and as is evident from last April/May's tightening and the exuberant expectations priced into stocks for more printing, perhaps credit's recent weakness signals that asset prices are overdone here (especially as there is no sign of credit creation in the real economy and ECB reserves continue to rise).




Greek FinMin Dispenses Words Of Advice On Fixing Greece

The only soundbite of note from the prandially inaustere finance minister's speech in Athens this afternoon.
  • VENIZELOS SAYS MUST REBUILD GREECE WITH WORK, WORK, WORK -BBG
Oddly, there was no mention whether or not said said work leads to freedom.





Summarizing The Open Questions Surrounding The Second Greek Bailout

Think this time around finally the Greek deal is done? Think again. OpenEurope lists the "many" questions still surrounding the second Greek bailout that remain unanswered. We would add that this is hardly an exhaustive list, and believe the key question, to put it simply, is a CAC is a MAC? Because if the answer is yes, the deal is off.




Greek PSI - A First Attempt At Valuing

Depending on what yield you apply to the new Greek bonds, then the package is worth 21.5% to 26.25%. Since bonds are trading with accrued and accrued will be paid in 6 months, the real question comes down to what you believe is the value of these new bonds. If there is an amortization schedule, that would change the valuation positively... We still haven’t seen retroactive CAC clauses implemented, but assuming that they are, I’m not sure why the Troika would accept a 95% rate and not trigger, but it seems worth taking the risk. The ECB swap may be illegal. The retroactive CAC may be illegal. The Troika seems like it wants to pretend there is no default if at all possible, in spite of the write-down of more than 50% of the debt.





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