Tuesday, June 5, 2012


Moody's Downgrades Six German Bank Groups, And Their Subsidiaries, By Up To Three Notches

First Moody's cut the most prominent Austrian banks, and now it is Germany's turn, if not that of the most undercapitalized German bank yet: "The ongoing rating review for Deutsche Bank AG and its subsidiaries will be concluded together with the reviews for other global firms with large capital markets operations." Punchline: "Frankfurt am Main, June 06, 2012 -- Moody's Investors Service has today taken various rating actions on seven German banks and their subsidiaries, as well as one German subsidiary of a foreign group. As a result, the long-term debt and deposit ratings for six groups and one German subsidiary of a foreign group have declined by one notch, while the ratings for one group were confirmed. Moody's also downgraded the long-term debt and deposit ratings for several subsidiaries of these groups, by up to three notches. At the same time, the short-term ratings for three groups as well as one German subsidiary of a foreign group have been downgraded by one notch, triggered by the long-term rating downgrades."




Greyerz – We Are Moving Closer To Total Financial Collapse

from KingWorldNews:
Today Egon von Greyerz told King World News that the global financial system is much closer to the point of collapse. Egon von Greyerz is founder and managing partner at Matterhorn Asset Management out of Switzerland. Von Greyerz also said, “world money supply is coming down at a very fast rate.” Here is what Greyerz had to say about the unfolding crisis which is taking place around the world: “We are very near an inflationary implosion if the money printing doesn’t come soon. Spain said they could finance their own banks, and now they say they need 50 billion euros from the ECB. 50 billion euros is a drop in the ocean, Eric. We’re probably talking about hundreds of billions or maybe one trillion euros they need.”
Egon von Greyerz continues @ KingWorldNews.com




Here Come The Hilsenrath Leak: "Fed Considers More Action"

Three months ago, just when things looked like they were about to turn south, the Fed's trusty mouthpiece, Jon Hilsenrath, made it clear that the market can stop falling as the Fed was "considering" sterilized QE, or more Twist, something we explained later would be impossible in the current format as the Fed would run out of sub 3 Year paper by the end of August. It did however halt the drop in stocks for a month or two until Europe became permanently unfixed. Hilsenrath then cralwed back into his WSJ cubicle. Until today: two weeks before the all critical June 20 FOMC meeting, the faithful Fed scribe has been charged with his latest leak commission: "Fed Considers More Action Amid New Recovery Doubts." And as it has been leaked (now that people have actually done the appropriate math), so it shall be.





The CBO Will Need A Bigger Chart To Forecast Exponentially-Rising US Debt


Sometime in 2042 the CBO will need a bigger chart to represent US public debt because per the just updated Extended Alternative Fiscal Scenario, which the CBO itself admits " is more representative of the fiscal policies that are now (or have recently been) in effect than is the extended baseline scenario," this is when it literally falls off the chart. And it is to ridiculous debt load that Keynesian lunatics want to add MORE debt? Actually why not, it is not as if the US will ever repay any of these exponentially-rising obligations.





From Negative 5Y5Y To $2200 Gold?

For the first time on record (based on Bloomberg's data) 5-year / 5-year forward inflation expectations turned negative today. This kind of deflationary impulse has occurred twice in recent years and each time has been accompanied by dramatic Federal Reserve easing. The anticipation of the move by the Fed has caused Gold each time to surge higher on yet more expectations of the fiat-fiasco unwinding. Given the 5Y5Y inflation print currently, we would expect action from the Fed and one could argue that this would cause the price of Gold to rise to $2200 per ounce as the deleveraging continues.





Guest Post: The Pernicious Dynamics Of Debt, Deleveraging, And Deflation


At this moment, the news media is constantly clamoring about the "Three Ds" that are buffeting the markets: debt, deleveraging, and deflation. We intuitively sense that they're linked -- but how, exactly? Understanding this linking is critical; as debt has fueled the global expansion, it will also dominate its contraction. To illustrate the forces of debt and deleveraging, let’s consider a home mortgage....




Why the US Dollar will Hyperinflate

by Stuart Bishop, Dollar Vigilante:
Imagine a scenario. One fine morning you turn on the television, and all the channels are preoccupied with an imminent speech from the president of the United States. People are excited, as the supposed biggest pop star in the world walks to the podium to make his speech. Maybe he is finally going to solve the financial crisis. Maybe he is going to follow the sage advice of Paul Krugman and announce another massive increase in spending, and this time it will be enough for these economic green shoots to turn into solid oak trees, built to last for generations.
He finally arrives on the stage, looks calmly at his teleprompter and starts to read out aloud in his own unique style:
Read More @ DollarVigilante.com




Collapse At Hand

by Dr. Paul Craig Roberts, PaulCraigRoberts.org:
Ever since the beginning of the financial crisis and quantitative easing, the question has been before us: How can the Federal Reserve maintain zero interest rates for banks and negative real interest rates for savers and bond holders when the US government is adding $1.5 trillion to the national debt every year via its budget deficits? Not long ago the Fed announced that it was going to continue this policy for another 2 or 3 years. Indeed, the Fed is locked into the policy. Without the artificially low interest rates, the debt service on the national debt would be so large that it would raise questions about the US Treasury’s credit rating and the viability of the dollar, and the trillions of dollars in Interest Rate Swaps and other derivatives would come unglued.
Read More @ PaulCraigRoberts.org


 

Spain asks for bailout help/Iran imports huge tonnage of gold/Final Pan European PMI numbers continue to disappoint/Bad German factory orders

Good evening Ladies and Gentlemen: Gold closed down today up by $3.30 to $1615230.  Silver on the other hand rose by a bigger margin  40 cents to $28.39.  The big news today came from Spain which have asked for a bailout. The Pan European PMI again disappointed investors as Europe seems to be heading into a deep recession. German factory orders were dismal falling  to minus 1.9 from minus 1.2.
 

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Spain Warns Market Access Being Shut, Calls For EU Action On Bank Recap

Eric De Groot at Eric De Groot - 3 hours ago
The calls for liquidity will be answered soon. Headline: Spain Warns Market Access Being Shut, Calls For EU Action On Bank Recap By David Roman MADRID--Spain Tuesday urged euro-zone partners to act faster to help support its enfeebled banks, with Budget Minister Cristobal Montoro saying that the government has effectively lost access to capital markets because of steep risk premiums demanded... [[ This is a content summary only. Visit my website for full links, other content, and more! ]]





Low Volume Melt-Ups Resume

Cash and Futures S&P 500 managed to close back above the 200DMA after a dismally low-volume melt-up supported by a reversion to fair-value in HYG but diverging from most other asset classes. Having pulled away from Treasuries, Gold, and the USD, stocks (led by financials) roamed higher on lower and lower comparable volumes to manage their best gain in a week with a generally low average trade size overall. Credit markets were quiet and reluctant to follow stocks but were reracked up (though IG underperformed HY's exuberance). However, the pop in JNK and HYG dragged them from the quite notably cheap levels they were at up to their intrinsic value and they anchored there (so not really a confirming strong rally). HY and HYG are in line also. Oil and Copper dropped early and then leaked back higher for the rest of the day as Silver and Gold end close to unch for the week - with the USD also close to unch as EURUSD round-tripped its gains from yesterday. Treasuries lagged the move in stocks but leaked higher in yield also in the afternoon - except notably 5Y which outperformed (reminding us of the 7Y outperformance aberration yesterday) as we suspect end-of-Twist is being priced in. After the day-session close, ES limped back towards VWAP on heavier volume and average trade size but didn't make it as we note VIX fell back below 25% (down 1.25 vols today) ending the day a little rich still to equity/credit fair-value. Lots of rumor-driven knee-jerks today but once the momentum had set in for stocks, we limped along to crack that 200DMA giving hope before Draghi's reality check tomorrow - though we note that ES stopped almost perfectly at Friday's closing VWAP (as did the major financials).



Nomi Prins on Banker’s Gone Bad – MF’ers, BoA, and Spanish Bond Bashing


Welcome to Capital Account. MF Global’s creditors could have more than three billion dollars in claims against the failed firm. That’s according to the creditors’ bankruptcy trustee — former FBI director Louis Freeh. Guess who is NOT in the front of the line for the money according to Freeh’s report? Customers. This is after a report came out yesterday from the trustee for the creditors, James Giddens. Lot’s to unpack, and we have just the guest to help us do it, author and former Goldman Sachs managing director Nomi Prins.




EU treaty talk calms markets

from, Gold Money:
Precious metals had a quiet day yesterday, with gold and silver both consolidating following Friday’s rally. Gold continues to face resistance at $1,625, while $28.50 remains a point of selling pressure for silver – as has been the case now for the best part of the last month.
James Turk sums up Friday’s gold and silver strength in a new King World News interview: “even though stock markets around the world the past few weeks have generally been in a nosedive, gold, silver and the mining shares are climbing higher. Independent strength like this is normally very bullish, and it bodes well for the precious metals and mining shares in the weeks and months ahead. It also suggests that, like last year, this summer is going to be another good one for the precious metals.”
Read More @ GoldMoney.com




Silver and gold to test last year’s highs as the world waits for more money printing?

by Peter Cooper, Silver Seek:

When will the global central banks press the button and start the electronic money printing presses rolling again? Will they first allow some hot air out of over-inflated stock markets or seize on a contracting global money supply as a reason to get on with it?
Money supply data is in retreat all over the world, even in China. It is an alarm bell for recession and all the latest data on manufacturing orders points to a synchronized global slowdown already. Printing money offsets this contraction to an extent.
Debt and more debt
The problem is that global central banks have been printing money to deal with the financial crisis for more than three years. All they have managed to do is delay a crash, they have not induced a recovery, and at the same time they have borrowed a very great deal more money.
Read More @ Silver Seek




The Subprime Student Loan Bubble

By Bill Bonner, DailyReckoning.com.au:

What’s the next industry to bubble up…pop…and collapse?
Student loans,” said our new friend, Barry Dyke.
From the far north…well, from New Hampshire…Barry has been following the money. And he sees a lot of it going to the education.
Why?
“It worked just like subprime,” he explained.
The feds bankrolled it. Guaranteed it. Regulated it. And conveniently didn’t notice as it got to monstrous proportions… And then, when it blows up…they’ll be there again, pointing fingers and promising to “regulate” more heavily.
“When you pay for something, you get more of it,” says presidential candidate Ron Paul.
The feds paid for one heckuva a lot of US education…subsidizing students and colleges…with trillions of dollars. They pay for GIs to go to school. They give grants to the schools themselves. And they hand our hundreds of billions in loans, at low teaser rates (just like sub-prime!) to students…often to students who are unqualified and unlikely to get much out of it.
Read More @ DailyReckoning.com.au




Ethics

by Andrew Hoffman, MilesFranklin.com:

Success in business – and life – depends on numerous factors.  Social skills, intelligence, and ingenuity to name a few – particularly given today’s DISMAL global economy and DETERIORATING social fabric.  At 41, I’m far from “old,” but I’ve certainly observed enough – after 20 years on Wall Street – to have a good idea what it takes.  All the above are important, but above all, one such trait stands alone – ETHICS!
I have long written of my quest for the “good, smart people” – not just in business, but all aspects of life.  Such people are few and far between, so when I find them, I cling for dear life.  “Good, smart people” do what they say, and do so in a manner that NEVER injures anyone, with an overarching goal of HELPING all they come in contact with.  In the latter stages of my career, I’ve been lucky enough to come across such souls at Torrey Hills Capital (http://www.babybulls.com/index.cfm/event/page.about) and Miles Franklin, where I have been the firm’s Marketing Director for the past seven months.
Many factors have contributed to building my following, but the most important – BY FAR – is ETHICS.  I have NEVER lied about my intentions or beliefs – even when asked to do so – and certainly not now, when my career goal is as much about PROTECTING people as selling coins.
Read more @ MilesFranklin.com




PIIGS Roasted At A French Real Estate Barbecue, And Then There Was Germany…

by Reggie Middleton, BoomBustBlog.com:
A few months ago, I warned all to Watch As Near Free Money To Banks Fails To Prevent Nuclear Winter For European CRE. This warning was an offshoot of the extensive research that I did on the European banking sector, sovereign debt and CRE. In a nutshell, I said It appears as if there were a few who failed to heed said sage warning. Bloomberg reports Commercial Landlords Fail to Pay Loans Amid Crisis, Moody’s Says
Landlords of commercial properties in Europe are struggling to repay mortgages as banks pull back from refinancing the loans, according to Moody’s Investors Service.
And the reason they are pulling back has been well documented on BoomBustBlog for some time. See Is Another Banking Crisis Inevitable? 04 February 2011
Read More @ BoomBustBlog.com




CPM’s Jeff Christian Attempts to Explain Friday’s $60 Pop in Gold, Says ‘$1,140 Gold is Likely’

from Silver Doctors:
The BNN invited the CPM Group’s Jeffrey Christian yesterday to attempt to explain last Friday’s $60 move UP in gold- which Christian states the violent move was due to standing buy orders rather than short covering.
When asked what is the biggest risk to being long gold now (likely the biggest soft-ball question the shill has ever been lobbed), Christian responds:
‘That the price of gold may fall. We’ve seen the gold price bounce of $1530 three times now. If the $1530 level is breached, perhaps during the period of June, July, August, you will see a cascade of sell orders come in, targeting $1140.’
Read More @ SilverDoctors.com




Technically Bouncing

by George Ure, UrbanSurvival.com:
That rally going into the close of markets on Monday isn’t to be mistaken for optimism.  It was a mere technical bounce since the market is waiting on hard news events although there are plenty of rumors going around.  One is that Pimco and JPMorgan are holding off some vacations because of fears that’s we could be into collapse any old time.  Want to have key folks on hand?  Maybe…we should find out around June 18-20 which isn’t that long to wait.
 
In the meantime, Europe was bouncing a bit earlier as France is looking to kiss the underside (can I say that?) of the 3,000 handle on the CAC40 while the British are still celebrating with another day off to mark the queen’s jubilee.
Read More @ UrbanSurvival.com




Silver Analyst Ted Butler

from Ted Butler, Casey Research:
Silver analyst Ted Butler had a thing or two to say about Friday’s big rally in gold…and here’s the 3-paragraph Reader’s Digest version…
“As I mentioned in last week’s review, there had been a build up in the gross short position of the technical funds in gold, as indicated in the long form disaggregated futures –only COT report. I gave the numbers for silver but not for gold, so let me do so now. This is the category of trader that the commercials lured onto the short side by the process of engineering lower successive prices. This “slicing of the salami” was the prime inducement for getting the tech funds to go short and the commercials pulled it off this time brilliantly. From the time of the first drop in gold below $1,600 (early May) to this week’s COT, the short side of the managed money category increased by more than 30,000 contracts, from under 10,000 contracts (COT of May 1) to almost 41,000 contracts as of the Tuesday cut-off. I would calculate that the average price at which the tech funds sold short these 30,000 contracts to be around $1,575.”
Read More @ CaseyResearch.com




Ignore the Rumors… Central Banks Are Pulling Back… Guess What Comes Next?

from Gains Pains & Capital:
Talk of QE and rumors of coming Central Bank Intervention pushed stocks and Gold higher on Monday. It’s odd to hear these rumors when every major Central Bank has in fact been clearly stating NO new stimulus is coming any time soon
Indeed, as the Fed has proved now for eight consecutive FOMC meetings, it is not going to announce more QE unless another systemic Crisis erupts. Instead the Fed continues to reiterate its talk of maintaining low interest rates, which is largely a symbolic gesture as it changes nothing
From the April 27 FOMC minutes
To support a stronger economic recovery and to help ensure that inflation, over time, is at the rate most consistent with its dual mandate, the Committee expects to maintain a highly accommodative stance for monetary policy.
Read More @ GainsPainsCapital.com




The Age Of Drones: Military May Be Using Drones In US To Help Police

from CBSNews.com:
LOS ANGELES (KNX 1070 NEWSRADIO) — As the Federal Aviation Administration helps usher in an age of drones for U.S. law enforcement agencies, the use of unmanned aerial vehicles (UAV’s) domestically by the U.S. military — and the sharing of collected data with police agencies — is raising its own concerns about possible violations of privacy and Constitutional law, according to drone critics.
A non-classified U.S. Air Force intelligence report obtained by KNX 1070 NEWSRADIO dated April 23, 2012, is helping fuel concern that video and other data inadvertently captured by Air Force drones already flying through some U.S. airspace, might end up in the hands of federal or local law enforcement, doing an end-run around normal procedures requiring police to obtain court issued warrants.
Read More @ CBSNews.com




JPMorgan Faces $4.2 Billion Trading Loss, ISI Forecasts

By Dakin Campbell , Bloomberg:
JPMorgan Chase & Co. (JPM), the largest U.S. bank, may report a $4.2 billion second-quarter trading loss in its chief investment office, according to an estimate by
International Strategy & Investment Group Inc.
The pretax loss would help cut second-quarter earnings to 65 cents a share, a 30 percent decline from an earlier estimate of 93 cents, Ed Najarian, an ISI analyst, said in a note yesterday. Weaker-than-expected trading and investment banking revenue coupled with mark-to-market private-equity losses will also weigh on results, Najarian said.
JPMorgan Chief Executive Officer Jamie Dimon, 56, said last month the firm lost about $2 billion on trades conducted at its CIO unit, which is charged with managing the bank’s idle cash to earn a profit while minimizing risk. Dimon has said losses could grow and it might take the rest of the year to liquidate the New York-based lender’s trades.
Read More @ Bloomberg


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