Friday, June 8, 2012

Peter Schiff – World is Headed Off the Edge of the Fiscal Cliff

from KingWorldNews:

With gold rallying $30 off the lows and global stock markets mixed, today King World News interviewed Peter Schiff, CEO of Europacific Capital, to get his thoughts on what lies ahead. Schiff told KWN when the Fed will come in with QE3, but first, here is what Schiff had to say about the action in the gold market: “People jumped on the fact that Ben Bernanke didn’t come out and say we’re doing QE3 right away, as a reason to sell gold. But if you believed that QE3 was coming before he spoke yesterday, he said nothing during that testimony that would alter what you believe.”
“What Ben Bernanke said is he will do QE3 if he thinks the economy needs it. He was asked if he would take QE3 off the table, and he said, ‘No.’ What would make Bernenke think QE3 is needed? It would be a weakening of the economy. More unemployment, weaker GDP growth, well that’s coming.
Nothing has changed at all. It’s still full speed ahead towards the edge of the real fiscal cliff….
Peter Schiff continues @ KingWorldNews.com




Gonzalo Lira on a Eurozone Marriage turned Orgy and a Latin American Divorce!

from CapitalAccount:
Welcome to Capital Account. Spain is poised to seek a bailout for its banks possibly as early as tomorrow, according to media reports. Different estimates put the money needed for a Spanish bank bailout at anywhere from 27 to 100 billion euros. Meanwhile, figures show Greece’s economy shrank at a rate of six-point-five percent for the first time in three months this year. There appears to be a collapse going on regardless of what Europe’s technocrats and politicians say. What is this going to look like? Well, Gonzalo Lira says he’s seen this all before in Latin America. He’ll take us back to Chile in 1983. He is joining us live from Santiago.




Presenting the CBO’s ‘Long-Term Outlook’ infographic

by Simon Black, Sovereign Man :
When you hear two politicians in the US going toe to toe arguing about public finances (i.e. money that isn’t theirs), they’ll often cite numbers published by the Congressional Budget Office (CBO).
In political circles, the CBO is considered an honest broker… an objective referee that simply presents the facts without taking a position on the numbers.
As such, it’s usually interesting when the CBO publishes something new about the macro situation of the world’s largest economy.
Today they’ve released an infographic showing America’s debt to GDP ratio over the last 100-years, through World War I, the Great Depression, World War II, the Nixon Gold shock, and the Global Financial Crisis.
Read More @ SovereignMan.com


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In The News Today


Dear CIGAs,

Operation Twist has been and will continue to be a major non functioning bomb in terms of stimulation. It did zero from its inception and will do less in the future. The 2011 version of Operation Twist calls for the Fed to sell $300-$700 billion of securities maturing in three years or lower, and then use that money to buy longer-dated securities maturing in 7-12 years. The program is designed to lower long-term rates to help mortgage holders refinance and lower the cost of borrowing, therein bolstering the economy. When no one will lend money to anyone what difference does it make to artificially try to keep long rates lo?. This is MOPE via MSM.
 Jim



Jim Sinclair’s Commentary

Four so far this weekend.

Bank Closing Information June 8, 2012
Updated Jun 8, 2012 18:01:51 EDT

Waccamaw Bank, Whiteville, NC
Farmers and Traders State Bank, Shabbona, IL
Carolina Federal Savings Bank, Charleston, SC
First Capital Bank, Kingfisher, OK

http://www.fdic.gov/




Jim Sinclair’s Commentary

MOPE Thursday and Friday in the US used to camouflage panic over a worldwide economic collapse in the next 3 weeks.

Finnish Leader Says U.S. Worried About Europe Banks By Meera Louis – Jun 6, 2012 4:38 PM MT
U.S. Treasury Secretary Timothy F. Geithner and Federal Reserve Chairman Ben S. Bernanke are concerned about the European banking industry, Finnish Prime Minister Jyrki Katainen said after meeting the two U.S. officials.
“They were very worried about what was going on,” Katainen said in a Bloomberg News telephone interview yesterday. Katainen said he discussed with Geithner and Bernanke the options for recapitalizing banks in trouble.
European Union leaders, including European Central Bank President Mario Draghi and European Commission President Jose Barroso, have called for a banking union with more coordination of regulation, as lawmakers seek to bolster confidence damaged by debt turmoil. EU President Herman Van Rompuy plans to report on proposed “building blocks” for deeper integration in the 17-nation euro area at the next summit of EU leaders on June 28- 29 in Brussels.
“One of the issues which we talked most was how to deal with the banking sector in Spain or in some other European countries because we should avoid a new banking crisis,” Katainen said. “This is an issue which we are considering right now.”
More…




Jim Sinclair’s Commentary

Our friend Lars Schall suggests this company, which sells to all major country mints in the West, is getting ready to print paper as well.

FORTRESS PAPER PROVIDES LANDQART OPERATIONAL UPDATE
VANCOUVER, British Columbia, June 7, 2012 – Fortress Paper Ltd. ("Fortress Paper" or the"Corporation") (TSX:FTP), announces that its wholly-owned subsidiary, Landqart AG, a leading manufacturer of banknote and security papers, has had a material banknote order reinstated.This order was unexpectedly suspended in the fourth quarter of 2011 which negatively impacted the financial results of Landqart’s operations in the first half of 2012.
More…






Jim Sinclair’s Commentary

Before you kiss off Euroland please consider the following. Russia and China would have much to gain from this and the dollar would have everything to lose.

Leaders plotting EU superstate: ‘Fiscal union’ looms… with the Germans in charge By James Chapman, Political Editor
European leaders are edging closer to a federal union in response to the financial crisis engulfing the Continent.
In crisis talks yesterday, Britain and the US joined forces to urge Germany to create a central Brussels body that could assume sovereignty over individual countries’ budgets and fiscal policies.
There is growing frustration in London and Washington at Germany’s reluctance to take steps towards a single economic government and put its vast resources behind the struggling countries in the eurozone.
Their fears were aired yesterday in a conference call between finance ministers from the G7 group of leading nations.
Four EU leaders have been asked to draft proposals for a deeper eurozone fiscal union, to be presented to an EU summit at the end of this month.
Senior Tory MPs are to press David Cameron to hold a referendum on Britain’s future in Europe if the moves go ahead.
More…





Jim Sinclair’s Commentary
QE to infinity is as sure as death and taxes. Denials of QE to the point of a crisis situation are as sure as death and taxes as well.
No central bank has ever acted except when there was no other alternative and in a crisis condition.
Operation Twist is a total joke at this time, actually a sick joke as it applies to stimulation.

Standing on the Shoulders of Giants Bix Weir
"Standing on the Shoulders of Giants"
…what it means:
http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Standing_on_the_shoulders_of_giants
Most of us remember who gave us our first big break when we started out in our careers. A good friend, a great boss or even a mentor who took you under their wing and taught you the ropes. As I look around at all the gold and silver newsletter writers I can’t help but think of how I got started in this business and who I learned from. There weren’t many around in those days and those who were writing about gold and silver were thought to be "crazy gold bugs" or members of the "tin foil hat gang"(…thanks for that one Jon Nadler!)
But over time the message spread that maybe there was something that these people understood that the rest of the investing public didn’t. Of course a steadily rising price over the last 12 years helped our cause but it wasn’t just that fact. It was that these people were fighting for something more than financial gain. They were fighting for justice and truth in the corrupt world of finance and I have no doubt that if gold was still struggling under $300 and silver under $5 that these people would still be fighting that fight with all their might.
So I’d like to tip my hat to those whose shoulders I stood upon for over ten years now as they have steered me in the right direction…and continue to do so. Here’s my list of some, not all but some, of the GIANTS I learned from:
1) Bill Murphy of GATA.org and LeMetropoleCafe.com
*Like many, Bill got me riled up about the manipulation of the gold and silver markets back in the year 2000. Not only did Bill see what most others could not, Bill wasn’t afraid to stand up for his convictions and scream at the top of his lungs at regulators to MAKE IT STOP! Bill is a Wild Man and a great patriot who has carried our flag through the darkest of nights. Bill’s Cafe was one of the very first places we outraged gold bugs could vent our frustrations and has always supported my work at the Road to Roota and for that I am in his debt.
website: www.LeMetropoleCafe.com
More…




Jim Sinclair’s Commentary
When the MOPE is flying like in yesterday’s Fed review and this morning at 10:45am, just do something else you enjoy.
clip_image001

 

Jim’s Mailbox


Jim,
I wonder what the gold bears will think of these figures in Sprott’s latest piece? Thanks for helping us stay balanced Jim.
CIGA Pedro


Gold Alert By Eric Sprott & Shree Kargutkar
June 8, 2012

There have been key developments in the physical gold market over the last few weeks which we feel are worth highlighting:
1) The Chinese gold imports from Hong Kong in April, 2012 surged almost 1300% on a YoY basis. Total gross imports for the month of April were 103.6 tonnes and the net imports were 66.3 tonnes1. It is not the data for April alone which has caught our eye. There has been a stunning increase of gold imports through Hong Kong for export into China over the past 2 years. Between May 2010 and April 2011, China imported a net 66 tonnes of physical gold through Hong Kong. Between May 2011 and April 2012, that number jumped to 489 tonnes. This represents an increase of 640%.
HONG KONG GOLD EXPORTS TO CHINA (KG)


clip_image001
 


Source: Census and Statistics Department of Hong Kong
2) Central banks from around the world bought over 70 tonnes of gold in April, 2012. Data from the IMF showed developing countries such as the Philippines, Turkey, Mexico and Sri Lanka were significant buyers of gold as prices dipped2.
3) Iran purchased $1.2B worth of gold in April, 2012 through Turkey. As the developed nations continue devaluing their currency at the expense of developing nations, countries such as Iran, China and Mexico are forced to look at alternative stores of value3.
4) After twenty years of lackluster returns and stagnant bond yields, Japanese pension funds have finally discovered the value of investing in gold. The $500M Okayama Metal and Machinery pension fund placed 1.5% of its assets into gold bullion-backed ETFs in April in order to "escape sovereign risk"4.
More…





Jim,
"Rate swaps have been reduced by $120 trillion and credit swaps by $82 trillion as of the end of 2011, ISDA said…" 6/8/2012
The very idea, that they are even talking about hundreds of trillions of dollars, is scary.
$100 trillion divided by 7 billion people = $14,286 exposure for each person.
Regards,
CIGA Sam

Dear Sam,
I have commented on this today. Let me present the situation as it applies to logic.
Call the hedge funds that have made billions on the other side of Morgan’s OTC derivatives loss and ask them to please tear up their derivatives.
Your take is also an example of good logic.
Regards,
Jim



Mr. Sinclair,
Care to comment on the notice yesterday from the ISDA?
CIGA Anonymous

CIGA Anonymous,
How do you comment on total crap? These guys do not know what truth is.
The MOPE here is "no need to worry about OTC derivatives, we can simply cancel them all."
That is the party line, and also a big fat lie.
Jim

Rate, Credit-Default Swaps Reduced by $200 Trillion, ISDA Says By Matthew Leising on June 06, 2012
More than $200 trillion in notional value of interest-rate and credit-default swaps have been eliminated from the over-the-counter derivatives market by canceling offsetting trades, the International Swaps & Derivatives Association said.
So-called tear-up agreements are used to get rid of redundant trades in the privately negotiated market and help lower credit risk by paring the number of transactions that must be accounted for on a daily basis. Rate swaps have been reduced by $120 trillion and credit swaps by $82 trillion as of the end of 2011, ISDA said in an e-mailed statement today.
The trade and lobbying group for users of OTC derivatives said on an adjusted basis interest-rate swaps total $262 trillion. The adjusted figure eliminates double-counting of trades that have been processed by clearinghouses, ISDA said. More than 53 percent of rate swaps had been backed by a clearinghouse as of Dec. 31, while 10.6 percent of credit swaps have been cleared, the group said.
More…





Jim,
Bravo and thanks for the amazing insights, and confidence boosts. QE to infinity is a perfect way to convey how derivatives force Central Banks to protect their banking systems (the real mandate), but "infinity" isn’t exactly correct, because we’ll have to stop somewhere short of that.
I guess my question is, then what?
QE to "almost infinity" must be a kind of hyperinflation, which I assume will eventually cause a global currency reset. I realize this is a long way off, and mostly unpredictable, but will they have enough time to plan a quasi-orderly transition, or will it just be total chaos?
CIGA Tuttle

Dear CIGA Tuttle,

A currency event axiomatic to QE to infinity is the limiting factor. All such previous periods in history slammed debt against the wall of currency viability then replaced the fiat currency with a commodity currency which paved the road to recovery. There is more that needs to be done, but I will leave that to a future commentary. Just let me hint at it by saying markets must become legitimate again, the uptick rule needs to be reinstated, OTC derivatives must be declared illegal, there needs to be major consequences for financial fraud, possibly a capital crime at certain levels and so on.
Regards,
Jim




Weekend Thoughts and Charts  
CIGA Eric

Thoughts and charts to mull over the weekend:
Ignore the machinations intended to divert and misdirect because nothing has changed.
The charts below tell us that the sovereign debt crisis, similar to 1933, is beginning to widen and intensify.
Barring the resurrection of Herbert Hoover, QE to infinite is assured
Chart 1: Gross Domestic Product (GDP) to Total Credit Market Debt (TCMD) Ratio clip_image002[1]
Chart 2: Annual Gross Domestic Product (GDP) per Annual Total Credit Market Debt (TCMD): Annual Income Growth per Debt Creation clip_image004[1]

More…





Spain to Request EU Bank Aid on Saturday: Sources CIGA Eric
The interconnectedness of capital flows and world markets ensures that there will be unpleasant consequences if a weaker member withdrawals from the euro zone. Simply put, the world is not ready for those consequences. If necessary, liquidity will be provided to all to protect the world’s financial system a little longer.
Headline: Spain to Request EU Bank Aid on Saturday: Sources
Spain is expected to request European aid for its ailing banks at the weekend to forestall worsening market turmoil, becoming the fourth and biggest country to seek assistance since the euro zone’s debt crisis began, EU and German sources said. Four senior EU officials said finance ministers of the 17-nation single currency area would hold a conference call on Saturday to discuss a Spanish request for an aid package, although no figure had yet been set. The Eurogroup would issue a statement after the meeting, they said. "The announcement is expected for Saturday afternoon," one of the EU officials said. The move comes after Fitch Ratings slashed Madrid’s sovereign credit rating by three notches to BBB from A on Thursday, highlighting Spain’s exposure to its banks’ bad property loans and to contagion from Greece’s debt crisis. "The government of Spain has realized the seriousness of their problem," a senior German official said.
cnbc.com
More…




Hi Jim,
This doesn’t sound possible in a down economy.
The Fed said today that “Net worth for households and non-profit groups increased by $2.83 Trillion from January through March, the biggest gain since the last three months of 2004.”
That sounds like a staggering increase in a three-month period. I’m assuming there’s a lot of MOPE in those numbers!
Best regards,
CIGA Black Swan
P.S.  The December 8, 2011 Flow of Funds Report showed the exact opposite.  At that time “Net worth for households and non-profit groups had decreased by $2.45 trillion from July through September, 2011.”

Household Net Worth in U.S. Increases by Most Since 2004 By Shobhana Chandra – Jun 7, 2012 2:38 PM ET .
Household wealth in the U.S. climbed in the first quarter by the most in seven years, bolstered by a jump in stock prices and more stable home values.
Net worth for households and non-profit groups increased by $2.83 trillion from January through March, the biggest gain since the last three months of 2004, to $62.9 trillion, the Federal Reserve said today in its flow of funds report from Washington.
The jump in wealth reflected the first-quarter’s 12 percent surge in stock prices, the biggest in three years. The gain in equities has been cut by almost half this quarter, which combined with a cooling job market and smaller wage gains indicates it will take time for households to repair tattered finances.
“In the current environment, equity-market gains won’t be a stable source of wealth generation for households,” Paul Edelstein, director of financial economics at IHS Global Insight in Lexington, Massachusetts, said in a note to clients. “With interest rates at rock-bottom levels, home prices unlikely to advance strongly, and incomes growing anemically, there are few options right now for households to build their assets.”
More…





Ignore the MOPE and Fabrications  
CIGA Eric
Jim is right.  Have no doubt, gold is going higher.  Do really expect them to acknowledge reality when it looks this bad?
The world’s enormous debt pile is failing and continues to grow.
The value or size of second and third derivative debt (or layers of debt based on debt) boggle the mind.
Changing demographics and slowing economy making it impossible to service existing debt.
Gold is going higher because of 1, 2, and 3.
Chart 1: Federal Debt Held by Foreign & International Investors (FDHBFIN) and the Equilibrium Price (FDHBFIN/OZ)


clip_image002
Chart 2: Federal Debt Held by Foreign & International Investors (FDHBFIN) Less Mainland China Treasury Holdings and the Equilibrium Price (FDHBFIN/OZ) clip_image004
Chart 3: Federal Debt Held by Foreign & International Investors As a % of GDP (FDHBFINGDPR) and the London P.M. Fixed Price of Gold (GOLD)  clip_image006

Ignore the MOPE and fabrications.
What I have told you will occur, will occur, without any doubt. That is the bottom line.
Regards, Jim
More…




Consumer Credit Report: Ugly

by George Ure, UrbanSurvival.com:
Although you didn’t feel the earthquake yesterday afternoon when the Federal Reserves Consumer Credit (it’s really debt) Report was released, a quick look at how the last hours of trading went Thursday ought to be some kind of a clue.
“OK, Ure, how so?” you’re wondering through the decaf fog.
We begin by reminding you that in many ways (as my deflationist pal Jas Jain is so fond of noting) the one thing that hold America together is we spend money like water…and since we do that, it keeps business afloat, if that’s not too simple.
Obviously, if consumer debt (it’s only credits to the banker class) is going UP, that’s a good thing because people are going in hock, and that means more jobs and that means good times. But, the flip side is that when people stop – or even slow – their spending, jobs and everything else goes DOWN.
Read More @ UrbanSurvival.com




The Student Subprime Bubble

by Bill Bonner, Whiskey and Gunpowder:
What’s the next industry to bubble up…pop…and collapse?
“Student loans,” said our new friend, Barry Dyke.
From the far north…well, from New Hampshire…Barry has been following the money. And he sees a lot of it going to the education.
Why?
“It worked just like subprime,” he explained.
The feds bankrolled it. Guaranteed it. Regulated it. And conveniently didn’t notice as it got to monstrous proportions… And then, when it blows up…they’ll be there again, pointing fingers and promising to “regulate” more heavily.
Read More @ WhiskeyAndGunpowder.com




Restricted U.S. Army Psychological Operations Process Tactics, Techniques, and Procedures Manual

from Public Intelligence:
Field Manual (FM) 3-05.301 describes the tactics, techniques, and procedures (TTP) for the implementation of United States (U.S.) Army Psychological Operations (PSYOP) doctrine presented in the higher-level publication, FM 3-05.30, Psychological Operations. FM 3-05.301 provides general guidance for commanders, staffs, and Soldiers who plan and conduct PSYOP across the range of military operations. The TTP in this manual are presented within the framework of the seven-phase PSYOP process, a mainstay for effective PSYOP executed at the tactical, operational, and strategic levels.
FM 3-05.301 is the principal reference for the PSYOP process. The contents of this manual supersede the discussion of the PSYOP process in FM 3-05.302, Tactical Psychological Operations Tactics, Techniques, and Procedures (28 October 2005).
Read More @ PublicIntelligence.net




Rockefeller Foundation Predicts 13,000 Dead at London 2012 Olympics

by James Britpod, The Intel Hub:
A 2010 Rockefeller Foundation document entitled “Scenarios for the Future of Technology and International Development” outlines a scenario which results in the death of 13,000 during the 2012 Olympics.
The first worrying prediction begins in 2012 when ‘the pandemic the world had been anticipating for years’, finally hits, infecting nearly 20 percent of world population and claiming 8 million lives. Due to this pandemic, the Rockefeller Foundation outlines how the public will welcome a more authoritative government and a tighter control across all aspects of life, including Biometric IDs for all citizens.
The 2012 London Olympics Bombing
In the document, the Rockefeller Foundation ‘predicts’ that the decade of 2010-2020 will be named “The Doom Decade”, because of  a wave of terrorist attacks, natural disasters as well as civil uprisings and financial collapses.
Read More @ The Intel Hub




D-Day, Dick Winters and the boys from Easy Company

by David Schectman, MilesFranklin.com:
QE to infinity here and in Euroland is as sure as death and taxes. Denials are also as sure as death and taxes before it occurs.
There is no other possibility. Who could be so stupid as to think it would be announced today?
– Jim Sinclair (jsmineset.com)

Are you angry because gold was smacked down today?  Don’t be.  Read Sinclair’s quote, above and just chill out.  By the end of the month, gold will reflect a different (QE3) reality.
If you are interested in WHY gold was trashed today, be sure and read Bill Holter’s comments.  Bill is a very bright and insightful guy!  His comments are always at or near the top of the articles I present to you in this daily. Today is no exception!
Read more @ MilesFranklin.com




Conversation with Rick Davis, Parts 1 and 2

from TrimTabs:



part2







GOLD Alert

by Eric Sprott & David Baker, Sprott:
There have been key developments in the physical gold market over the last few weeks which we feel are worth highlighting:
1) The Chinese gold imports from Hong Kong in April, 2012 surged almost 1300% on a YoY basis. Total gross imports for the month of April were 103.6 tonnes and the net imports were 66.3 tonnes1. It is not the data for April alone which has caught our eye. There has been a stunning increase of gold imports through Hong Kong for export into China over the past 2 years. Between May 2010 and April 2011, China imported a net 66 tonnes of physical gold through Hong Kong. Between May 2011 and April 2012, that number jumped to 489 tonnes. This represents an increase of 640%.
Read More @ Sprott.com.com




The Buck Stops Where? – Obama Blames Europe for US Economic Problems

from RTAmerica:

On Friday, President Obama gave a speech on the state of the US economy. Significant parts of his address, however, were dedicated to Europe. President Obama blamed the Euro crisis on many difficulties America is facing now. Is this fair that five months before the election, Obama is trying to shift the blame for the poor economic data overseas? Former Reagan administration official Dr. Paul Craig Roberts joins Abby Martin to discuss it.




BTFD...Keep Stacking...

Eric Sprott: THE SILVER CARTELS HAVE CHANGED THEIR M.O.

from Silver Doctors:
The Doc sat down with Sprott Asset Management’s Eric Sprott this weekend to discuss the European debt contagion, the latest gold and silver massacre, the massive rush into physical metals, and his outlook on gold and silver for the rest of 2012 and beyond.
This is a portion of Eric’s thoughts regarding Thursday’s smash in the metals and the crisis in Spain coming to a head.
When asked whether Thursday’s gold and silver raid coinciding with Bernanke’s testimony to Congress felt like Deja-Vu to the Leap Day Massacre Eric responded:
It might be that the silver cartels have changed their MO. The MO used to be that whenever the jobs number came out they’d go to work, which let them take a shot at the markets once a month.
The last jobs report backfired, and of course the jobs reports have been so poor. I think the key thing for the cartel is to time it, and to know when to do it. Three or four guys acting together can have a bigger impact if you all know exactly what second we’re going to do something.
Read More @ SilverDoctors.com




Developing: Nuclear Cover-Up? Extreme Radiation Levels Prompt EPA Censorship, DHS Hazmat Team

by Anthony Gucciardi, Infowars:
In a developing story that is raising concerns over a potential nuclear cover-up by the EPA, alarming amounts of radiation were reported near the border of Indiana and Michigan and later censored by the EPA online geiger tool.  The readings, which were captured in a screenshot, measured as high as 7.139 counts per minute (CPM). This is particularly startling, as the normal radiation levels are generally between 5 and 6 CPM. Sources say that a Department of Homeland Security hazmat team has now been dispatched after ‘years’ of inactivity.
A number of community reports have came in on the subject in fact, with readers of community boards and concerned citizens offering up some interesting and intriguing information regarding the potential radiation cover-up. Discussion over the information first began to surface on internet boards like Reddit and user-submitted news source Digital Journal. In the Reddit submission, which ultimately reached thousands of comments — many from those in the area who had contacted radiation monitoring stations and other affiliated individuals — and brought some further information to light.
Read More @ Infowars.com


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