Gold Rally Only Beginning
By: The Gold Report and Roger Wiegand
Police State Amerika
By: David Galland, Casey Research
As the superimposed chart below demonstrates, the current 6 week drop, which is the longest in the last 9 years, or since 2002, may just be the beginning. And while our prediction that 2011 is a replica of 2010 is now confirmed, the far scarier possibility is that the next comparison to 2011 is 2002 - if that year is any indication, the SPX will drop to ~1000 before rebounding: obviously at that point the Fed will have no choice but to proceed with QE3, or the downward momentum will accelerate in what may then become a repeat of October 2008, and all those predictions for an S&P 400 would promptly be validated.
The most recent CFTC Commitment of Traders report is out. As usual the most interesting data can be found in the FX spec update which does not disappoint. Just as we predicted, as the EUR surged over the past 14 days so did non-commercial net specs. The number which is through Tuesday, probably increased even as the EUR got hammered over the past 24 hours, dropping 250 pips in two days. Expect the usual piling out through the front door as specs bail once again. At that point the time to buy the EUR will come. Of the other two major pairs, the USD and the JPY, the Yen increased in long exposure while the Dollar saw the first decline in 8 weeks: just in time for the USD to jump once again.
The Fed just released the final POMO schedule which completes QE2: the total amount of bonds to be monetized will be $60 billion (at the upper end of the range) and with that the QE2 portion of monetary stimulus is over. Notably, there will be two POMOs on June 20. What is interesting, is that the Fed will continue the QE Lite portion as expected, with what appears to be a modest weekly POMO to the tune of $3.5 billion on July 6 and July 11, meant to replenish the bonds that mature and prepaid MBS. Alas, as the total notional shows, and as Zero Hedge expected, the $7 billion in two weeks is woefully inadequate to provide the Shadow QE that many have expected. It is interesting that as part of QE Lite the Fed will focus on what appears to be the 4-5 years part of the Curve.
Nothing like the Criminal Reserve announcing at 2pm on Friday, just as the market was about to flush all stops to the bottom that the already laughable 3% capital charge buffer (initially expected to be 9%) required by Basel may be reduced even more (according to NY Fed mouthpiece Steve Liesman, a hypothetical which will likely be refuted before long), probably down to 2-2.5%. This number is woefully inadequate to protect financial companies from the the material capital infusion that will be needed post the onboarding of $200+ trillion in OTC derivatives to exchanges as we reported previosuly, but who the hell cares: must kick the can down the road one more day.
XLF's knee jerk reaction.
It is somewhat ironic that the only thing that can undo the Tepper "Balls to the Wall" effect is.... Tepper.
*Check out* our NEW research report on the topic of the Fed’s supposed gold holdings.
Link to original story.
By: The Gold Report and Roger Wiegand
Police State Amerika
By: David Galland, Casey Research
Stocks Post Longest Multi-Week Drop Since 2002 - History Predicts Much More Pain In Store
Submitted by Tyler Durden on 06/10/2011 16:15 -0400As the superimposed chart below demonstrates, the current 6 week drop, which is the longest in the last 9 years, or since 2002, may just be the beginning. And while our prediction that 2011 is a replica of 2010 is now confirmed, the far scarier possibility is that the next comparison to 2011 is 2002 - if that year is any indication, the SPX will drop to ~1000 before rebounding: obviously at that point the Fed will have no choice but to proceed with QE3, or the downward momentum will accelerate in what may then become a repeat of October 2008, and all those predictions for an S&P 400 would promptly be validated.
The Spec EUR Herd Falls Into The Trap, As 10 Year UST Longs Peak, Flattening Bets Reappear
Submitted by Tyler Durden on 06/10/2011 15:49 -0400The most recent CFTC Commitment of Traders report is out. As usual the most interesting data can be found in the FX spec update which does not disappoint. Just as we predicted, as the EUR surged over the past 14 days so did non-commercial net specs. The number which is through Tuesday, probably increased even as the EUR got hammered over the past 24 hours, dropping 250 pips in two days. Expect the usual piling out through the front door as specs bail once again. At that point the time to buy the EUR will come. Of the other two major pairs, the USD and the JPY, the Yen increased in long exposure while the Dollar saw the first decline in 8 weeks: just in time for the USD to jump once again.
Fed Releases Final POMO Schedule: $60 Billion And Scene
Submitted by Tyler Durden on 06/10/2011 15:03 -0400The Fed just released the final POMO schedule which completes QE2: the total amount of bonds to be monetized will be $60 billion (at the upper end of the range) and with that the QE2 portion of monetary stimulus is over. Notably, there will be two POMOs on June 20. What is interesting, is that the Fed will continue the QE Lite portion as expected, with what appears to be a modest weekly POMO to the tune of $3.5 billion on July 6 and July 11, meant to replenish the bonds that mature and prepaid MBS. Alas, as the total notional shows, and as Zero Hedge expected, the $7 billion in two weeks is woefully inadequate to provide the Shadow QE that many have expected. It is interesting that as part of QE Lite the Fed will focus on what appears to be the 4-5 years part of the Curve.
Friday Flush Sticksave Provided By Fed, As Basel Capital Charge Requirement "May" Be Lowered From 3% To 2-2.5%
Submitted by Tyler Durden on 06/10/2011 14:20 -0400Nothing like the Criminal Reserve announcing at 2pm on Friday, just as the market was about to flush all stops to the bottom that the already laughable 3% capital charge buffer (initially expected to be 9%) required by Basel may be reduced even more (according to NY Fed mouthpiece Steve Liesman, a hypothetical which will likely be refuted before long), probably down to 2-2.5%. This number is woefully inadequate to protect financial companies from the the material capital infusion that will be needed post the onboarding of $200+ trillion in OTC derivatives to exchanges as we reported previosuly, but who the hell cares: must kick the can down the road one more day.
XLF's knee jerk reaction.
Tepper Unwinds The "Tepper Effect"... And Then Some
Submitted by Tyler Durden on 06/10/2011 13:56 -0400It is somewhat ironic that the only thing that can undo the Tepper "Balls to the Wall" effect is.... Tepper.
Afternoon Humor: All The Headlines That's Fit To Move The Market
Submitted by Tyler Durden on 06/10/2011 16:52 -0400The Fed has NO Gold (Part 2): A Deeper Look
Author: goldnews | Filed under: Central Bank News, Political News, Precious Metals News A widely discussed topic arose after one the Federal Reserve’s lawyers made clear that the Fed has no interest in any gold holdings anywhere. This fact came as a surprise to many and required some digging to uncover the oddities of a central bank who lists gold certificates on their balance sheet, but retains no interest in any gold. In our first post on the topic we helped expose the story and have now written a follow-up to delve deeper and more accurately into the affairs of what occurred between the Fed and the Treasury over the past century.*Check out* our NEW research report on the topic of the Fed’s supposed gold holdings.
Link to original story.
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