Yes, the Next Crisis is Coming… And It WILL Be Worse Than 2008

Posted by: Phoenix Capital Research

Post date: 06/18/2011 - 21:37

Indeed, the next Crisis is coming. And it will make 2008 look like a picnic. Why? Because this time around the Crisis will involve entire countries, rather than just banks (see Greece today). It’s going to be really REALLY bad. And I would argue that 99% of people are completely ignorant of it.

 

 

 

 

Click, Clack, Click: The Sound of Falling Dominoes Behind The Door of the Eurocalypse!

Posted by: Reggie Middleton

Post date: 06/19/2011 - 06:05

From the Telegraph (UK): Moves by [UK] stronger banks to cut back their lending to weaker [EU] banks is reminiscent of the build-up to the financial crisis in 2008, when the refusal of banks to lend to one another led to a seizing-up of the markets that eventually led to the collapse of several major banks and taxpayer bail-outs of many more. This is exactly what I've been crowing about for 2 years. It's actually much worse than Lehman... Much Worse!

 

 

 

 

Ceasefire Between Germany And ECB Has Expired: Greek Compromise Plan Now "Off The Table" 

Submitted by Tyler Durden on 06/19/2011 11:47 -0400

The one catalyst which sent the EURUSD (and thus its first derivative, the SPX) surging on Friday was the Guardian story that Germany, Sarkozy and most importantly, the ECB, have reached a consensus over the form of the second Greek bailout. In the immediate aftermath, Greece, sensing European weakness, announced that it would seek to pass the Troica plan however with substantial changes, a development which prompted us to say that "now that Merkel has effectively thrown in the towel to her, and the CDU's, political reign by agreeing with the ECB's and France's demands, a move which will be brutalized by Der Spiegel in T minus 5 minutes, the fact that Europe blinked to Greece's bluff, just may mean that every demand out of Greece will be met." Well, sure enough here is Der Spiegel, however instead of seen as bending over to Greece, Germany appears to have had a dramatic change of heart, and told not only Greece to take its demands and shove them, but the ECB to go fornicate itself.

Papandreou Warns Of Catastrophic Consequences To Greece If He Is Deposed, Calls For Vague Constitutional Reform Referendum 

Submitted by Tyler Durden on 06/19/2011 11:06 -0400

Papandreou's latest attempt to buy his failed regime some time, after last week reneging on his promise to step down (which certainly did not buy him any friends), was a speech to Parliament in which he told Greece the obvious "We had three choices.First, bankruptcy, second, leaving the euro, the third, helping the support mechanism that we created... The consequences of a violent bankruptcy or exit from the euro would be immediately catastrophic for households, the banks, and the country's credibility." Nothing new there: the same Mutually Assured Destruction rant that Americans have grown to love so much over the past 3 years. More importantly the Papster called for a referendum on constitutional reform in the fall, naturally without any actual details or specifics. The speech launched the 3 day parliamentary debate on the vote of confidence in the government which is due on Tuesday at around 5pm EDT. In addition, G-Pap also called for a consensus at national level, something which will be very difficult to achieve with ongoing MP defections from the ruling PASOK. The PM noted that the Greek problems can not be solved by banishing the International Monetary Fund and the Troika. Paradoxically the truth is precisely the opposite: the Greek problem stem from the Troika's involvement, and as long as they are there, Greece will merely get more and more encumbered with emergency loans until very soon 100% of government revenue goes to pay off western banks. But when it the last time a member of a ruling party actually told his electorate the truth?

Podcasting The Charts That Matter Next Week: A Technical Look At The European Breakdown 

Submitted by Tyler Durden on 06/19/2011 10:31 -0400

Love or hate charts, they continue to be a key signal for that all dominant (and possibly only remaining) market player: Johnny 5. As is tradition, there are few better chartists than Goldman's John Noyce, who continues to go against the Thomas Stolper trend and target nf 1.55 on the EURUSD, and once again sees nothing but famine, frogs and pestilence in Europe's immediate future... as confirmed by 76.4 retraces, 20 big figure spreads from fair value, a Spanish 10 year which has finally broken out from its triangle resistance level of 5.53%, and not to mention the trendline breach of the IBEX. Making things worse are the ongoing ugly developments in the S&P and the SHCOMP, some curious development in the USDMYR (502 consecutive closes below the 200 DMA), which superimposes very curious with the EURSEK, some other curious developments in peripheral spreads, and lastly, the commodity complex, which is also testing its own triangle formation, although unlike the Spanish 10 Year, from the upside. 

 

 

 

 

 

Where There's Smoke, There's Ice-Nine: The European Liquidity Freeze Explained 

Last week Zero Hedge was the first (and so far only) to notice there was something disturbing in the European interbank market (here and here), where various [blank]-OIS spreads had blown out on a relative basis to levels that while not indicative of an imminent liquidity crunch confirmed that the liquidity in the overnight funding market, all of is backstopped by the ECB, was disappearing fast. Now, courtesy of the Guardian we know of at least one of the reasons for this troubling observations: "Senior sources have revealed that leading banks, including Barclays and Standard Chartered, have radically reduced the amount of unsecured lending they are prepared to make available to eurozone banks, raising the prospect of a new credit crunch for the European banking system. Standard Chartered is understood to have withdrawn tens of billions of pounds from the eurozone inter-bank lending market in recent months and cut its overall exposure by two-thirds in the past few weeks as it has become increasingly worried about the finances of other European banks. Barclays has also cut its exposure in recent months as senior managers have become increasingly concerned about developments among banks with large exposures to the troubled European countries Greece, Ireland, Spain, Italy and Portugal." As expected, where there is smoke, or blowing out liquidity spreads, there is fire, or in this case Ice-Nine. Next, we will be shocked to learn that there is a comparable trend in China (as also proposed by Zero Hedge), where the 1 week SHIBOR rate continues to be near 2011 highs.

'Futures markets aren't manipulated; futures markets ARE the manipulation'