Just The Tip: Republicans Considering Transitory Debt Ceiling Hike
Submitted by Tyler Durden on 06/19/2011 19:25 -0400So much for the engrossing "Debts of our lives" soap opera. In the most expected outcome possible, the "best hypocritical actor" Oscar winners known as Republicans have caved and according to chief Senate republican sock puppet Mitch McConnell "Congress and the White House could raise the debt limit for a few months while they seek a comprehensive, long-term budget deal." Of course, when the $300 billion or so "temporary" hike which will last the US government for just under two months, we will get another temporary extension, and then another, and so forth, until the current batch of Oscar winners is voted out en masse yet again, only to be replaced with another set of sock puppets, and the posturing and the drama, not to mention the comedy, can begin anew. Luckily the G-Fund will at least get a temporary reprieve until its is plundered again, some time in late August, early September, when the debt ceiling is breached again, and an unmanageable debt load has been resolved through... the issuance of more debt. Don't be surprised to see the net notional US CDS outstanding to continue its torrid pace of sequential increase.
posted by Trader Dan at Trader Dan's Market Views - 1 hour ago
Eric King of King World News, this weekend, interviewed my good friend and legendary trader Jim Sinclair, and myself, to get our thoughts on the recent price action of the mining shares. I highly recommend...
Crisis Hour: Europe May Withhold Half Of €12 Billion Greek Aid As No Emergency Meeting Decision Reached
Submitted by Tyler Durden on 06/19/2011 15:14 -0400EUR longs sure are missing Paulson's bazooka, as currency sell orders may flood the tape as soon as trading resumes at 5pm following the latest one-two knockout pair of news about Greece, which just went through the eye of the hurricane on Friday, and is about to be rocked all over again. According to Bloomberg, the math of the Greek bailout, which as we already discussed is highly impossible, is about to be made even more ridiculous, after European finance ministers have decided they may only authorize half the critical €12 billion rescue payment: "Euro-area finance ministers may authorize only a 6 billion- euro loan to tide Greece through bond redemptions in July, while further aid hinges on Greek budget cuts, Belgian Finance Minister Didier Reynders said. “We will in any case try to release the necessary funds for the short term,” Reynders told reporters before a meeting of euro-area finance ministers in Luxembourg tonight." What's worse is that any hope Europe may have finally reached a consensus on how to proceed with Greece, has once again crumbled after "Dutch Finance Minister Jan Kees de Jager said he doesn’t think euro area finance ministers will agree on a new rescue package for Greece at talks in Luxembourg today." In other words the "we'll make it up as we go along" bailout continues although any faith a credible settlement will be reached is by now completely gone.
Guest Post: What Does It Mean If Greece CDS Is Trading At 2000 bps?
Submitted by Tyler Durden on 06/19/2011 13:21 -0400In the past few days reporters from Bloomberg, Reuters, and the FT have all basically said the spread is a per annum fee to insure against Greek default. That is not actually correct. If someone buys 10 million of 5 year Greek CDS at 2000 they do NOT pay 2 million per annum until the maturity or a Credit Event occurs. They pay 500,000 annually, quarterly in arrears until the scheduled maturity date or a Credit Event occurs, AND they pay 3,662,325 up front. This is a big distinction. It is true for all CDS. The quoted running spread is converted to an upfront payment based on an actual running spread of either 100 bps or 500 bps depending on the name. Certainly for tight names, this difference is more of a technicality, but for distressed names it is meaningful.
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