Saturday, June 11, 2011

June 14th is a national day of resistance against economic tyranny. We all need to do our part.

Guest Post: The Necessity Of Resisting Financial Tyranny 



June 14th is a national day of resistance against economic tyranny. We all need to do our part. The good folks at AmpedStatus.org have hosted this site: Acts of Resistance: What Are You Going To Do On June 14th to Rebel Against Economic Tyranny? Demonstrations and public actions are being planned in a number of cities.If you cannot attend the public events, then consider taking direct action against Wall Street and the "too big to fail" banks. Direct action boils down to this simple act: remove your money from their grasp. Your money fuels their exploitation, their fraud, their skimming, their lobbying and thus their sabotage of democracy. If we all take our money out of their grasp, then they will shrink or expire. If you haven't already, move your IRA and other accounts out of Wall Street and "too big to fail" banks. Move the accounts to online firms, local credit unions or local banks. Yes, there are still locally owned and controlled banks. Moving your money to them is a direct-action statement against financial tyranny.




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Weekly Chartology And Outlook: Mutual Fund Outflows And Stalling Growth Momentum 




Despite near record corporate earnings, the S&P has continued to trend lower for 6 weeks: the longest drop since 2002 as reported yesterday. But have no fear: Goldman's David Kostin summarizes the upside/downside potential of the market (1450/1210 on the S&P), and the key bullish and bearish factors that help determine the current outlook. "Discussions with clients this week focused on the risk/reward balance for US equities. Our forecasts reflect a 2:1 upside/downside return profile through year-end 2011. S&P 500 has declined by 5% from its April 29th closing high of 1364. Our year-end 2011 index target remains 1450 representing 12% upside from current levels. A downside scenario suggests an index value of approximately 1210 or roughly 6% below current levels." Also, Kostin is confident the current sell off is overdue to reverse "During the pull-backs the median length time for the market to reach bottom equaled 27 days. Six of the episodes took 20-40 days and on four occasions the decline occurred in less than two weeks. The current sell-off has lasted 41 days and counting. The historical episodes we analyzed had a median time to recover of 41 days. Recoveries during 2003-07 typically took longer than the speedy rebounds since 2009." Needless to say comparing the current centrally planned regime to any other time is futile, and we completely disagree with his assessment.




KWN Weekly Metals Wrap


Dear CIGAs,
Please click the link below to listen to this week’s metals wrap up from King World News, featuring our very own Trader Dan Norcini.
Click here to listen to the weekly metals wrap up…




In The News Today

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"Joe America is largely unfazed, however. Sure, there are pockets of hurt, and there are many, many people who have re-evaluated their personal situations and have embraced individual austerity. Yet in the aggregate, we’re back on the credit card. It is hard to discern at this point whether the uptick in borrowing is for essentials or discretionary goods. Based on the anecdotal evidence, it is likely both. People have been trained to borrow, make minimum payments, and to live as a servant to the creditor. When you think about it, the ‘money’ that has been used to create this servitude has been created from nothing, yet must be repaid with something very real – the sweat of one’s brow. Hardly seems like a fair deal to me, yet we not only accept it, we demand it. Have we really spent any time thinking about these matters? It is almost funny when I look at the latest opinion polls regarding the national debt. The vast majority of Americans think that Congress needs to put the country’s fiscal house in order, yet most of those same people refuse to do it in their own backyard.
More…




African Land Grab - "Acres for a bottle of Scotch" 
Bruce Krasting
06/11/2011 - 09:22
Is history repeating itself in Africa?




Revisiting The "Ice Age" - Albert Edwards Charts America's Descent Into Japan, And The Market's Descent To S&P 400 



Several years ago SocGen's Albert Edwards coined the term "IceAge" (here, here, here, here) to describe the long, unexciting financial and economic slog that follows any credit bust. Recently, after observing (technically it was Dylan Grice but one can be forgiven for thinking they are the same person) the most recent failure by Central Planners to prevent a mean reversion (which however will certainly not stop them from trying - there is a status quo to be preserved), Albert has dusted off the trusty charts that inevitably lead to a very sad conclusion for the central planning brigade: "The Ice Age theme is now well known. In a world of very low inflation and near deflation, equities de-rate both absolutely and relative to government bonds, which also re-rate in absolute terms. After the obscene extremes of equity valuations seen during the 2000 bubble, we have entered a long valuation bear market which should end in extreme levels of cheapness consistent with an S&P around 400. The unavoidable deep recession associated with this level (not forgetting the inevitable China bust) will drag an already  ?expensive? bond market to even higher extremes. One of the key themes of our longer-term analysis is that at the end of one of these lengthy 15-year phases for the financial markets (shown below), investors believe that the current investment phase will continue indefinitely. That was not the case in 2009 and is not the case now. There is still far too much hope to call a bottom." Ergo the selling of #hope (alas the #change has now replaced fiat paper) by the oligarchs. More important than even confidence, the market continues to run on pure unbridled optimism. Take away the monetary spigot and the hope will collapse faster than artificial "record" corporate profit margins. And make no mistake: Bernanke is all too aware of this constantly reappearing and developing dynamic which threatens to end the debt-funded status quo. And the last thing he will ever allow is for it to materialize, $1000/gallon gas be damned.






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