Wednesday, June 22, 2011

Watch Bernanke's Q&A With FOMC Approved Sycophants Live Here 



At 2:15 pm the general public will watch with fascination as Ben Bernanke descends into his throne, in his dollar green Vera Wang wearing a stunning Control Print and Arpels tungsten necklace, following with trepidation each and every shake and quiver of his chin in those ultra rare instances when he speaks the truth. He will be surrounded by a cohort of FOMC preapproved sycophants who, as can be seen on the clip below, are now on page 2 of Monetary Policy for Dummies, which they started reading back on April 27 during the first ever FOMC press conference. As usual, nothing of significance will be asked, and most certainly, answered, but do expect the dollar (and, inversely, ES) to go up, then down, then up, and so forth as random vacuum tubes blow in NYSE's ultramodern Mahwah collocation facility. 
 
 
 
 
As I have said for 3 years...The Bernank will print money to Infinity and Beyond...Hedge accordingly... 

New York Fed Announces It Will Conduct 7 POMO Operations Beginning July 1 As Part Of Continuing QE Lite 


Just as expected, the New York Fed disclosed that even as QE2 is being halted (briefly), QE Lite purchases of maturing securities will continue, across the Fed's 7 maturity segments: "At this time, the Desk anticipates conducting one operation per month in each maturity sector." As we have calculated before the total amount of monthly "flow" purchases will be about $32 billion, and likely declining, as less and less MBS are prepaid to the Fed. In other words, the bulk of purchases will once again be at the belly, with the least amount dedicated to the long-end, followed only by the 1.5-2.5 year segment, which however, if Bill Gross is right, will see a surge in activity as soon as Operation Twist 2 is announced at this year's Jackson Hole meeting. 
 
 
 
 

G-Pap: "You Love Me, You Really Love Me".... Greek PM Releases Statement On Passing Confidence Vote By A Margin Of 4 Votes 


Once again, the non-Greek speaking population has the opportunity to poke fun at G-Pap's vote of confidence reception speech courtesy of Google Translate. 
 
 
 
 
 

FOMC Statement, Redline And Wordcloud Comparison 




Nothing surprising in the statement.
One notable observation is that for the first time since the Japanese events, the Fed is finally recognized the impact of the Japan-induced contraction. Odd that all the morons who said Japan would be a boost to GDP growth now applaud the Fed's appreciation of reality.
The slower pace of the recovery reflects in part factors that are likely to be temporary, including the damping effect of higher food and energy prices on consumer purchasing power and spending as well as supply chain disruptions associated with the tragic events in Japan. 





Guest Post: Time To Cut High Yield Exposure - Again 



I am back to being bearish the high yield market. I am not yet short it, but would certainly recommend being underweight right now. A couple of things have pushed me back to being bearish. The main one is weakness in other credit markets. Once again CMBX is heading lower and back at or near its recent lows. It has not been able to sustain a big rally which is particularly surprising because it is relatively illiquid and is a 'hedge' trade so is usually very exposed to a violent short squeeze. Irish and Portuguese 10 year bond hit new record yields according to Bloomberg - 11.47% and 10.99% respectively at the time of the writing, though Portugal broke 11% earlier in the day...The combination of weakness in other credit markets, coupled by the HYG NAV confirming that liquidity is at an extreme low in the high yield bond market I think it is prudent to cut high yield risk. With European credit closing quite weakly, I may shift to an outright short. 
 
 
 
 
 

Risk-ES Spread Closes, Reopens Ahead Of FOMC 



After the ES-RISK (Rates, both absolute and butterflys, FX and Commodities) divergence yesterday brought the spread to a 10 point-wide equivalent, the subsequent lack of positive response to the Greek developments in futures once again closed the spread like clockwork. Well, the 3 day regressed chart (for apples to apples) shows that stocks are once again overeager in advance of the Fed meeting, which leads to yet another convergence opportunity between the two trade legs. 
 
 
 
 
 
Fed Slashes Growth Forecast, Sees Unemployment Still High
The Fed slashed its forecast for economic growth this year to between 2.7% and 2.9% and said it expects unemployment to be as high as 8.9% by year-end.
 
 
 
 
 

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