Monday, September 12, 2011

UBS' George Magnus Says European "Viability Is Far From Assured"

Last week, Zero Hedge first brought to readers the infamous UBS report, which has since made the global rounds, and which essentially laid out the binomial tree for Eurozone survival as follows: either the EUR survives, or we get Civil war. In keeping with the schizophrenia of the TBTF banks whose number one goal is to cover their ass by predicting the two opposite possible outcomes, so as to avoid being sued by sovereigns once the dominos start falling, here is the firm's much respected economist George Magnus, who in his latest release of "By George", does a comprehensive framing of the agenda in the Eurozone. His conclusions: don't believe the European bureaucrat PhDs - there is much more here than meets the eye. To wit: "The dilemma over where to draw the lines between integration and sovereignty lies at the core of the fiscal union debate. The policy agenda has to recognise this, and not assume that fiscal union, one way or another, is eventually a ‘gimme’, even though logic would say it should be. Parallel to the logic are the politics and vested interests, the German Constitutional Court notwithstanding, which say fiscal union only one theoretical outcome, and maybe a long shot. Most likely, the political limits to fiscal integration have not yet been reached, but if there are further moves towards but not reaching this goal, they will most certainly be on German, and therefore, limited, terms. We may conclude that while the Euro system is not about to break up, its viability as it stands is far from assured." Maybe not "about" - give it a few weeks though...

 

 

The 2nd Edge Of Modern Financial Repression: Manipulating Inflation Indexes To Steal From Retirees & Public Workers
By: Daniel R. Amerman, CFA

 

 

American Jobs Bill 2011: Too Late For A Do-over For President Obama

EconMatters
09/12/2011 - 11:36
Since President Obama missed the best opportunity three years ago, it is too late for a do-over now.

 

 

Nothing Has Changed!

Eric De Groot at Eric De Groot - 41 minutes ago

Smart money has been accumulating gold at the expense of dumb money since mid August. Perhaps it’s different this time in that retail money has finally turned the tables on connected money (interests) by sending gold lower? Short-term declines against the secular trend and unconfirmed by leverage (money flows) are nothing more than noise masquerading as trend information. Nothing has... [[ This is a content summary only. Visit my website for full links, other content, and more! ]]





As The French Bank Runs....
Reggie Middleton
09/12/2011 - 11:16
It is quite refreshing to see some real and objective analysis come out of the sell side, particularly from one bank regarding another, but I must admit that if I had to pick a bone with Lim's...




Phoenix Capital...
09/12/2011 - 12:48
In order for a move of that caliber to occur in the US Dollar, we’ll need to see a full-scale crisis to hit the markets (the last two US Dollar rallies occurred during the 2008 collapse and the 2010...



$32 Billion 3 Year Bonds Sold At Rate Below 3 Month Libor


Earlier today we reported that 3 Month USD Libor hit a year high of 0.343%, jumping from 0.338% on Friday. The reason we bring this up is that the US Treasury just priced $32 billion in 3 Year Bonds (chart 1 below) at a yield that is below that of 3 Month Libor. As for what that means we leave the explanation to anyone who believes that a 0.000% on the 30 Year (which courtesy of Operation TurboTorque we may soon see) is perfectly normal. For those who prefer empirical evidence, the last time this spread inverted was back in early 2009 before the Fed bailed out the world for the first time (chart 2 below). Now, on the question who bails out the world this time around, with all the central banks "all in" already, we are not too sure. Either way, completing the auction details, was a Bid to Cover of 3.148, slighly lower than recent averages, a Dealer take down of 53.7%, or more than half, and Indirects accounting for 35.7% or about their average. The non-eventfulness of the auction was confirmed by the lack of tail, with the When Issued trading at 0.34% at 1pm.





Previewing This Week's Circuses... If Not So Much Bread

With the US economy in free fall, European liquidity imploding, NASA on beneficially inclined and extremely solvent extraterrestrial life alert (someone has to bailout the world after all), at least we have political circuses, if not so much bread... or cake. Here is what DC has in store for us over the next five days. Luckily, we can forget our trials and tribulations tonight when 8 pm brings with it the second Republican presidential address in which Ron Paul will once again be the undisputed winner and will be largely ignored by everyone in the mainstream, financially-funded media.





Greek Bank Deposits Decline For 7th Month In A Row: Tax Collectors Celebrate By Striking

We now know that the US is an Onion Republic, which leaves open the question: what is Greece... because we are getting very vegetably challenged here. According to the Bank of Greece, household and corporate deposits declined for the 7th month in a row, dropping by €1 billion euros in the July. Since January 2010, total deposits have declined from €233 billion to just €187 billion, or €46 billion, or 20% of the entire deposit base. Once again, we make it very clear that no matter what the government does with sovereign tax collections, spending cuts and stop gap liquidity boosts, as long as the deposits outflow continues, nothing else matters. And speaking of tax collections, according to Dow Jones, completing the unbelievable Greek farce, is the news that tomorrow in addition to the now standard customs officials and taxi drivers, among those striking will be the country's tax collectors as well. So.... just how will Greece collect those so very precious taxes it needs to pretend it is in compliance with the Troika's demands for deficit cut compliance in order for the country to get the next IMF tranche which will stave off bankruptcy for one more month. As a reminder, Greek cash runs out on October 17.





Guest Post: How QE2 Helped Main Street, Example 1: High-End Diamond Retailers


One justification for bailing out Wall Street was that it would ultimately help Main Street.  ast time we looked at the diamond price index for 1-ct diamonds. Today we investigate the effects of QE2 on that most Main Street of businesses--the high-end diamond retailer. At the prices quoted, a single diamond of this size would set you back about $110,000. Hopefully she's worth it. There are two significant periods of rising prices--early 2010, and November 2010 to June 2011, during which time prices rose about 30%. The official CPI (excluding food and energy) was 1-2% over the same interval. We note that this last interval corresponds approximately with the timing of QE2, and congratulate the Federal Reserve for aiding Main Street business.





German Court Opens Door to Über-Empire and Über-Collapse
By: John Browne, Senior Market Strategist at Euro Pacific Capital






International Forecaster September 2011 (#3) - Gold, Silver, Economy + More
By: Bob Chapman, The International Forecaster





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