More "Change You Can Believe In"
The US Census Bureau has released its annual Income (not so much), Poverty (much) and Health Insurance Coverage report for 2010. The full thing is below but the highlights are as follows: i) Real median household income in the United States in 2010 was $49,445, a 2.3 percent decline from the 2009 median. ii) The nation's official poverty rate in 2010 was 15.1 percent, up from 14.3 percent in 2009 ? the third consecutive annual increase in the poverty rate. There were 46.2 million people in poverty in 2010, up from 43.6 million in 2009 ? the fourth consecutive annual increase and the largest number in the 52 years for which poverty estimates have been published; and iii) The number of people without health insurance coverage rose from 49.0 million in 2009 to 49.9 million in 2010, while the percentage without coverage ?16.3 percent - was not statistically different from the rate in 2009. Breaking it down by ethnicity, living in poverty were 27.4% of all blacks, and 26.6% of all Hispanics. White, non Hispanics and Asians were doing better at 9.9% and 12.1% respectively. At this point we could interject with a joke about the "wealth effect", "edible iPads", and/or "health insurance", but frankly, all those are way overused by now. Hence, we leave such creativity to our readers.
While
the fact that a record number of Americans are living in poverty
should not surprise anyone at this point, what should surprise many is
that according to Table P-5 of the Census report of (Lack of) Income, the median male is now worse on a gross, inflation adjusted basis, than he was in... 1968! While back then, the median income of male workers was $32,844, it has since risen declined
to $32,137 as of 2010. And there is your lesson in inflation 101
(which we assume is driven by the CPI, which likely means that the
actual inflation adjusted income decline is far worse than what is even
reported). The only winner: women, whose median inflation adjusted
income over the same period has increased by 188%. That said, it is
still at 65% of what the median male makes. So injustice all around. And
now, it is time to be patriotic again and buy a Pontiac Aztek.
While Goldman continues to resolutely predict that the EURUSD will any minute now go back to 1.50 (and 1.55 in 12 months or so), Morgan Stanley has for once decided not to ape its far more capable and client "fornicating" competitor Goldman and has thrown up all over the EUR, slashing its EURUSD forecast "significantly lower" to 1.30 by year-end and 1.25 in Q1 2012, before stabilizing in the second half of next year because the now second rate bank believes that "economic, political, constitutional and monetary policy developments in Europe have now become more challenging for the EUR, while international support is likely to decline." Its conclusion: "As a result, the EUR's attraction as an alternative reserve currency is likely to be reduced." So, let's do the math: EUR: not a reserve currency? Check. CHF: not a reserve currency? Check (and pegged to the former). USD: about to be gang banged by the windowless corner office at the Marriner Eccles building housing America's central planners? Check. So.... what is left if one is looking for a reserve currency?
Loan demand continues to weaken across the board in 2011. The only exception is commercial and business loan growth. This sub sector, however, accounts for less than 14% of total bank credit. Loan allocation to the all-important real estate sector has fallen to 37.5% from a high of 42% in late 2009. Also, consumer and home equity loan growth, the main driver of leveraged spending in America,... [[ This is a content summary only. Visit my website for full links, other content, and more! ]]
Wondering why stocks are soaring and the EURUSD is above 1.37 again? Why, nothing short of the latest rumor, this time that Russia will bail out Europe. Bloomberg reports that Russia may use its international reserves to buy common euro-area bonds if European policy makers back joint debt issuance, Reuters reported, citing an interview with Finance Minister Alexei Kudrin... Sorry, we just report them. Time for the trader diary to get its latest update. The only problem we see with this strategy of rolling daily bailouts is that after China and Russia, who would be far smarter to participate in a stalking horse bid of European assets than to invest general unsecured pre-petition claims, there will be nobody left to "rescue" Europe: after all who else is out there? Zimbabwe? Japan? Argentina? Iceland? We doubt even the 80286's will buy that...
In
a brief moment of humility, JPM's masters of the universe admit, well,
they are not. The firm sees markets revenue -30% from Q2 2011, sees
lower asset management revenues, expects a modest loss in private
equity, and will recognize additional litigation expenses. Overall
corporate net income is expected to be a small loss.
While
the market continues to trade purely on rumor, counter-rumor and
refutation of a refutation, the facts demonstrate that Europe is ugly
and getting worse. Today's now daily update focuses on continuing
deterioration in both liquidity and solvency. First, the usage of the
ECB Deposit Facility soared to €198 billion on Monday from €182 billion
on Friday. This is a massive €118 billion increase in the past month
alone. As the chart below demonstrates, a good word to describe the
chart is parabolic. Furthermore, USD Libor continues to rise and has now
risen nearly 40 days in a row. While not nearly parabolic, it is time
to shift attention away from Credit Agricole, which is still the most
"funding challenged", and focus on CSFB which once again rose by 0.01%,
and threatens to overtake the troubled French bank in pole position.
Time to refocus the shorts from France to Switzerland? Lastly, the CDS
are ugly across the board.
Today's
Import and Export Price Index, while not market moving, showed that the
US still has some residual inflation to import (Prices of goods
imported from China rose by 0.1% in August, and 3.6% from a year
earlier). The August headline number came at -0.4%, on expectations of a
-0.8% drop (0.3% previously), driven entirely by Fuel Imports which
dropped by -1.8%, following a 0.4% increase in July, and a drop of
-2.3% previously. In other words, the Fuel component of importer prices
follows the Russell 2000 with a correlation of 1.000. AS for non-fuel
imports, these was positive as has been the case for 12 months in a row
with the exception of June 2011, when it was unchanged. Should QE3 be
announced and priced in in one week, look for Brent, and its far less
relevant cousin WTI, to soar, sending import prices to the moon once
again, and so forth: we all know how the play ends.
Record Number Americans, Or 46.3 Million, Lived In Poverty Last Year; 49.9 Million Without Health Insurance
The US Census Bureau has released its annual Income (not so much), Poverty (much) and Health Insurance Coverage report for 2010. The full thing is below but the highlights are as follows: i) Real median household income in the United States in 2010 was $49,445, a 2.3 percent decline from the 2009 median. ii) The nation's official poverty rate in 2010 was 15.1 percent, up from 14.3 percent in 2009 ? the third consecutive annual increase in the poverty rate. There were 46.2 million people in poverty in 2010, up from 43.6 million in 2009 ? the fourth consecutive annual increase and the largest number in the 52 years for which poverty estimates have been published; and iii) The number of people without health insurance coverage rose from 49.0 million in 2009 to 49.9 million in 2010, while the percentage without coverage ?16.3 percent - was not statistically different from the rate in 2009. Breaking it down by ethnicity, living in poverty were 27.4% of all blacks, and 26.6% of all Hispanics. White, non Hispanics and Asians were doing better at 9.9% and 12.1% respectively. At this point we could interject with a joke about the "wealth effect", "edible iPads", and/or "health insurance", but frankly, all those are way overused by now. Hence, we leave such creativity to our readers.
Median Male Worker Makes Less Now Than 43 Years Ago
Submitted by Tyler Durden on 09/13/2011 - 11:18 CPI Pontiac Pontiac AztekWhile
the fact that a record number of Americans are living in poverty
should not surprise anyone at this point, what should surprise many is
that according to Table P-5 of the Census report of (Lack of) Income, the median male is now worse on a gross, inflation adjusted basis, than he was in... 1968! While back then, the median income of male workers was $32,844, it has since risen declined
to $32,137 as of 2010. And there is your lesson in inflation 101
(which we assume is driven by the CPI, which likely means that the
actual inflation adjusted income decline is far worse than what is even
reported). The only winner: women, whose median inflation adjusted
income over the same period has increased by 188%. That said, it is
still at 65% of what the median male makes. So injustice all around. And
now, it is time to be patriotic again and buy a Pontiac Aztek.Morgan Stanley Slashes EURUSD Target To 1.30, Says EUR Attraction As An Alternative Reserve Currency Ending
While Goldman continues to resolutely predict that the EURUSD will any minute now go back to 1.50 (and 1.55 in 12 months or so), Morgan Stanley has for once decided not to ape its far more capable and client "fornicating" competitor Goldman and has thrown up all over the EUR, slashing its EURUSD forecast "significantly lower" to 1.30 by year-end and 1.25 in Q1 2012, before stabilizing in the second half of next year because the now second rate bank believes that "economic, political, constitutional and monetary policy developments in Europe have now become more challenging for the EUR, while international support is likely to decline." Its conclusion: "As a result, the EUR's attraction as an alternative reserve currency is likely to be reduced." So, let's do the math: EUR: not a reserve currency? Check. CHF: not a reserve currency? Check (and pegged to the former). USD: about to be gang banged by the windowless corner office at the Marriner Eccles building housing America's central planners? Check. So.... what is left if one is looking for a reserve currency?
Indian Markets Will Correct Further
Admin at Marc Faber Blog - 21 minutes ago
I think the Indian markets will not go lower to those 2008 levels, but would
go lower from the current levels to, may be, 12,000-15,000 levels. From
their low in 2009, the Indian markets till recently rose to 21,000, which is
almost 100 per cent returns. I do not call this a bear market rally, but a
bull market. We now have had the beginning of a bear market.
*Related: WisdomTree India Earnings Fund ETF (NYSE:EPI), iPath MSCI India
Index ETN (INP)*
*Marc Faber is an international investor known for his uncanny predictions
of the stock market and futures markets around the world.*
I Own Probably More U.S. Dollars Then I’ve Owned In Years
Admin at Jim Rogers Blog - 32 minutes ago
The only reason I’m long, is because everybody in the world, including me,
has been terribly pessimistic. And whenever that happens you should take the
other side of the trade. So I’m long the U.S. dollar, I have no confidence
in it, its going to be a disaster, but as we speak I own probably more U.S.
dollars then I’ve owned in years, and certainly more than any other
currency. - *in Deal Breaker*
*Jim Rogers is an author, financial commentator and successful international
investor. He has been frequently featured in Time, The New York Times,
Barron’s, Forbes, Fortune, The Wall Stre... more »
The Next Crisis Is Going To Be Worse Than The One In 2008
Admin at Marc Faber Blog - 46 minutes ago
We never really had a recovery in the Western world. The stock markets went
up because of the money printing and support in 2009. My view is that they
can probably muddle through for another two-three years by piling up the
fiscal deficit or printing more money. I do not know when it will happen in
2012 or in 2018, but the next crisis will be worse than the one in 2008. - *in
Business Standard*
*Tickers: SPDR S&P 500 ETF (NYSE:SPY) ProShares UltraShort S&P500 (ETF),
(NYSE:SDS) ProShares UltraShort QQQ (ETF) (NYSE:QID), PowerShares QQQ Trust,
Series 1 (ETF) (NASDAQ:QQQ); *
*Marc Fab... more »
The Pressure To Do Something Is Increasing
Eric De Groot at Eric De Groot - 1 hour ago
Loan demand continues to weaken across the board in 2011. The only exception is commercial and business loan growth. This sub sector, however, accounts for less than 14% of total bank credit. Loan allocation to the all-important real estate sector has fallen to 37.5% from a high of 42% in late 2009. Also, consumer and home equity loan growth, the main driver of leveraged spending in America,... [[ This is a content summary only. Visit my website for full links, other content, and more! ]]
European Rumormill Goes Full Retard
Update: Italy Hasn’t Asked for Any Help From China, Deputy Min Says... Yeah. Full RetardWondering why stocks are soaring and the EURUSD is above 1.37 again? Why, nothing short of the latest rumor, this time that Russia will bail out Europe. Bloomberg reports that Russia may use its international reserves to buy common euro-area bonds if European policy makers back joint debt issuance, Reuters reported, citing an interview with Finance Minister Alexei Kudrin... Sorry, we just report them. Time for the trader diary to get its latest update. The only problem we see with this strategy of rolling daily bailouts is that after China and Russia, who would be far smarter to participate in a stalking horse bid of European assets than to invest general unsecured pre-petition claims, there will be nobody left to "rescue" Europe: after all who else is out there? Zimbabwe? Japan? Argentina? Iceland? We doubt even the 80286's will buy that...
JPM Releases Trading Forecast - Expects 30% drop in Q3
In
a brief moment of humility, JPM's masters of the universe admit, well,
they are not. The firm sees markets revenue -30% from Q2 2011, sees
lower asset management revenues, expects a modest loss in private
equity, and will recognize additional litigation expenses. Overall
corporate net income is expected to be a small loss.Please consider making a small donation, to help cover some of the labor and costs for this blog.
Thank You
I'm PayPal VerifiedEurope Facts, Not Fiction: Usage Of ECB Deposit Facility Goes Parabolic, Sov CDS Wider Across The Board
While
the market continues to trade purely on rumor, counter-rumor and
refutation of a refutation, the facts demonstrate that Europe is ugly
and getting worse. Today's now daily update focuses on continuing
deterioration in both liquidity and solvency. First, the usage of the
ECB Deposit Facility soared to €198 billion on Monday from €182 billion
on Friday. This is a massive €118 billion increase in the past month
alone. As the chart below demonstrates, a good word to describe the
chart is parabolic. Furthermore, USD Libor continues to rise and has now
risen nearly 40 days in a row. While not nearly parabolic, it is time
to shift attention away from Credit Agricole, which is still the most
"funding challenged", and focus on CSFB which once again rose by 0.01%,
and threatens to overtake the troubled French bank in pole position.
Time to refocus the shorts from France to Switzerland? Lastly, the CDS
are ugly across the board.Former Fed Member, And Guy Who Came Up With Idea To Sell Treasury Puts, Joins Morgan Stanley As Chief US Economist
Morgan Stanley continues to demonstrate just how badly it lags Goldman. While the vampire squid is mostly known for sending its employees to run such places as the US Treasury, the New York Fed and the ECB (in 2 short months), Morgan Stanley has to be content with the inverse, i.e. hiring former Fed apparatchicks, in this case former long-time Fed advisor Vince Reinhart, who among other things is best known for collaborating with Ben Bernanke on discovering that Operation Twist does not work, and, of course, proposing the currently overt Treasury manipulation operation (for those times when QE is not sufficient) which involves selling puts on Treasury futures (link).From A Trader's Diary...
Ever wonder what a page in the daily diary of a "sophisticated" institutional trader looks like? Wonder no more.Import Prices Decline Less Than Expected, Export Prices Increase
Today's
Import and Export Price Index, while not market moving, showed that the
US still has some residual inflation to import (Prices of goods
imported from China rose by 0.1% in August, and 3.6% from a year
earlier). The August headline number came at -0.4%, on expectations of a
-0.8% drop (0.3% previously), driven entirely by Fuel Imports which
dropped by -1.8%, following a 0.4% increase in July, and a drop of
-2.3% previously. In other words, the Fuel component of importer prices
follows the Russell 2000 with a correlation of 1.000. AS for non-fuel
imports, these was positive as has been the case for 12 months in a row
with the exception of June 2011, when it was unchanged. Should QE3 be
announced and priced in in one week, look for Brent, and its far less
relevant cousin WTI, to soar, sending import prices to the moon once
again, and so forth: we all know how the play ends.Next Rumor: G-Pap To Hold Call With Merkozy
Just when we thought Europe was fresh out of rumor ideas, they prove us wrong once again. From Reuters: "Greek Prime Minister George Papandreou will hold a conference call on Wednesday with French President Nicolas Sarkozy and German Chancellor Angela Merkel, Greek state television NET said on Tuesday. NET did not cite any sources and there was no immediate, official confirmation of the call." Judging by the market reaction, which is a big fat yawn, Europe will have to come up with something much better than this. And we are sure they will oblige: look for the rumor mill to work overtime spewing furious gibberish all day, until something finally sticks to the wall. The end goal is insight: must prevent the unwind of the Eurozone for just 3 more hours when the market closes. And in the meantime, making sure she shoots herself in the foot once again, Merkel said she’s "very optimistic" that Finland’s demands for special collateral as part of the Greek bailout package "will be met within the parameters of measures agreed by euro-area leaders." Funny, because this is 100% backtracking on the official German position as of a few short days ago which was that no collateral would be granted to anyone. Sigh.Daily US Opening News And Market Re-Cap: September 13
Complete conflicted, planted and rumor-based schizophrenia overnight. An article in the FT saying that the Italian government is working on measures to facilitate the sale of the Italian government paper to China provided positive sentiment to the market early in the European session.However, the move was short lived on the back of market talk that China will not buy Italian bonds but instead seek various infrastructure investments, which resulted in a sell-off in equities. Equities came under further pressure after an article in the WSJ wrote, citing an unnamed BNP Paribas executive, that the bank could no longer borrow USDs from the money market, which also resulted in a sharp decline in Eurodollar futures. Weakness in equities provided support to Bunds, and the Eurozone 10-year government bond yield spreads with respect to Bunds generally widened. Particular widening was observed in the Italian/German spread leading up to and following a lacklustre 5-year Italian BTP auction, where the yield hit an all time high. Elsewhere, EUR/USD traded in negative territory during the European session, however did come off its earlier lows as the USD-Index weakened, together with comments from the Italian Prime Minister who said that the Italian Parliament will approve the budget proposals tomorrow. Also, AUD/USD remained under pressure following worse than expected business conditions/confidence data from Australia overnight. In other forex news, GBP/USD lost ground after BoE's Posen said that the central bank should resume its quantitative easing programme.And REJECTED: Sarkozy Spokesman Says No 'Mergency Merkozy Meeting, zEURo Tumbles
Sorry, no announcement. Just more rumors from the Eurozone. This is, if nothing else, becoming fucking hilarious.- Sarkozy spokesman says no Franco-German initiative on Greece today
Successful Auctions And Chinese Buying
How many times can we rally on the same story. Back in April of this year, there were big stories about Chinese buying European sovereign debt. At the time the Greek 10 year bond was trading at almost 60 then. It is below 40 now. The Greek 2 year bond was at almost 70, now it too is at 40. The Italian 5 year bond yielded less than 4%, today it is almost back to its highs of 5.5%. I am quite positive that I can find articles quoting Chinese support for Greece going back to March 2010 when Greece issued a new bond in what was deemed a VERY SUCCESSFUL auction. I have written about it before, but it seems worth mentioning again. In March 2010, Greece issued a 5 billion EUR 10 year bond. It had a 6.25% coupon and was priced at 98.942 It traded up and the whole market breathed a sigh of relief that the auction had gone so well. It is hard to count the number of times that China has come in to buy European bonds or that a successful auction was a sign that the crisis was over, I only have so many fingers and toes after all. None of those actions was enough to save Greece from some from trading at prices far below what investors a year ago thought were conservative recovery rates. And Greece only has about 330 billion EUR of debt. How is China going to save Italy with 1.6 TRILLION EUR of debt? China could buy up all the 156 billion EUR of Portuguese debt if it wanted to solve the "contagion" there. They haven't done it. Again, if this was new news, or had shown any sign of working in the past, I would be more excited. This seems like a story that is trotted out every few months, provides an initial pop, and then bonds return to their grind lower in price.Here It Comes - Bunds Tumble Following News Sarkozy, Merkel To "Make Announcement" On Greece Today
Well, the China rumor came and went... So it's time for more "Magic From a 'Mergency Merkozy Meeting." From Reuters:- FRENCH GOVERNMENT SOURCEE SAYS SARKOZY AND MERKEL WILL MAKE AN ANNOUNCEMENT ON GREECE TODAY
- GERMAN BUND FUTURES
HIT SESSION LOW AT 137.68 AFTER MERKEL-SARKOZY NEWS
![[Most Recent Quotes from www.kitco.com]](http://www.kitconet.com/charts/metals/gold/t24_au_en_usoz_2.gif)
![[Most Recent Quotes from www.kitco.com]](http://www.kitconet.com/charts/metals/silver/t24_ag_en_usoz_2.gif)
No comments:
Post a Comment