Silver Soars 26% In 26 Hours
It appears rumors (there's that word again) of precious metals' demise have been greatly exaggerated yet again. After hitting a low of $26/ounce just shortly after 24 hours ago, the metal has since soared by a whopping 26% to $32.90 (thank you CME and Shanghai Gold Exchange). That's $6.90 in one day. The same with gold. It seems that the market has finally had its brain kicked in a little following the realization that an expansion in the EFSF from E440 billion to E3 trillion (which has about 0.01% probability of happening, and would likely see the mobilization of a certain army first) would mean an exponential decline in the credibility of that "other" currency, which while potentially retaining its value against the "first" currency, will have been devalued that much more against the real, undilutable currency. We expect the market to comprehend that Goldman, for once, was spot on in its evaluation that anyone who bought yesterday at the lows, will have already made their full year unlevered return in one short day.
Germany's Coalition FDP Party Threatens To Kill The EFSF If Liesman's Rumormill Does Not Stop
While overnight markets are rocking based on continued speculation coming from some completely uncorroborated and unconfirmed source that Europe has just boldly gone where even Goldman's Abacus has not dared to go before courtesy of the ECB's acceptance of a CDO squared "Enron Special" SPV, Germany has once again made it very clear that not only will there not be any expansion in the EFSF in regular terms, but certainly not in structural ones. As Goldman's Dirk Schumacher makes it very clear, any attempts at imposing on Germany a fait accompli reality that has no bearing in actual reality (especially one that excludes the only relevant decision-maker in Europe) will be met with increasing protests from the entire German ruling class. According to Die Welt, the Free Democratic Party is threatening to vote against overhaul of EFSF if discussions about leveraging fund don’t stop. Goldman elaborates: "FDP and CSU not fond of further increase of EFSF. Leading figures from the FDP and the CSU, the Bavarian branch of the CDU, rejected any thoughts of a further increase of the EFSF (either directly or indirectly through leverage). FDP general secretary Lindner said that "the chancellor should make clear immediately that there is no change to the business model of the EFSF." So, yes, consider that an official denial of the Liesman rumor which as typical, has no confirmation anywhere else.Gold And Silver Will Be Moving To Stronger Hands
In the case of gold and silver, I think increasingly they will be perceived
as cash and increasingly they will be moving to stronger hands.
Tickers: Ishares Silver ETF (SLV), Hecla Mining (HL), SPDR Gold ETF (GLD),
Newmont Mining (NEM), Barrick Gold (ABX), Goldcorp (GG);
*Marc Faber is an international investor known for his uncanny predictions
of the stock market and futures markets around the world.*
Europe Has A Few Bad Bankrupt States, So Does America
Europe has a few bad, bankrupt states, so does America. We've got Illinois
which is bigger than Greece, we've got California, we've got New York, you
know those are pretty big states that have serious economic problems. We
have pension plans in America that are terribly under water. - *in CNBC*
*Tickers: SPDR S&P 500 Index (SPY), ProShares UltraShort S&P500 ETF (SDS)*
*Jim Rogers is an author, financial commentator and successful international
investor. He has been frequently featured in Time, The New York Times,
Barron’s, Forbes, Fortune, The Wall Street Journal, The Financial Times... more »
Short Emerging Markets, Beware Of Russia
Check the latest Jim Rogers video interview on Reuters, *"Short Emerging
Markets, Beware Of Russia"*
Tickers: iShares MSCI Emerging Markets Index ETF (EEM), Market Vector Russia
ETF Trust (RSX), iShares MSCI Brazil Index ETF (EWZ)
*Jim Rogers is an author, financial commentator and successful international
investor. He has been frequently featured in Time, The New York Times,
Barron’s, Forbes, Fortune, The Wall Street Journal, The Financial Times and
is a regular guest on Bloomberg and CNBC.*
If You Look At The Environment We Are In, There Are A Lot Of Similarities With 2008
If you look at the environment we are in, there are a lot of similarities
with 2008 where basically the financing for the exploration companies dried
up, the global liquidity shrank, asset prices collapsed but the US dollar
and US government bonds were strong. And we have a repeat here of that
situation and my sense is that industrial commodities are vulnerable and
still remain vulnerable. - *in CNBC*
Tickers: Materials SPDR ETF (XLB), iShares Lehman 7-10 Year Treasury Bonds
ETF (IEF)
*Marc Faber is an international investor known for his uncanny predictions
of the stock market an... more »
CNBC Video: Squawk Box
Topics: Mining companies, US bonds, US Dollar, asset markets;
*Marc Faber is an international investor known for his uncanny predictions
of the stock market and futures markets around the world.*
I Am Thinking Of Buying Agriculture Right Now
I am thinking about buying agriculture right now. I am not thinking about
buying base metals or gold or oil right now, but I am thinking of buying
agriculture maybe this afternoon. - *in Economic Times*
Tickers: ELEMENTS Rogers Intl Commodity Index - Agriculture Total Return ETN
(RJA), PowerShares DB Agriculture Fund (NYSE:DBA), Mosaic (MOS), Potash
(POT), Agrium (AGU)
*Jim Rogers is an author, financial commentator and successful international
investor. He has been frequently featured in Time, The New York Times,
Barron’s, Forbes, Fortune, The Wall Street Journal, The Financial Tim... more »
"Hopelessly Devoted" - IceCap Asset Management September 2011 Market Outlook
While Ben Bernanke may say his mentor has always been Stanley Fischer, here at IceCap we are able to see through this charade. Mr. Bernanke’s inspiration has always and will always be the 1978 cinema classic – Grease. Whether his inspiration is Olivia Newton-John- Travolta or in fact Mr. Fischer, we know that Helicopter Ben is belting out Grease show tunes while in his office, car or bath tub (if Warren can do it, why not Ben?). And although the Chairman of the US Federal Reserve will always claim he is hopelessly devoted to doing what is best, he is actually doing the only thing he knows how to do – print money. Exactly where he got this drive to be a money printer is undeniable – we’ll blame it squarely on the shoulders of the father of modern economics, John Maynard Keynes. Blasphemous you say? Well, step aside sonny, here’s the real story behind the money printing machines from the USA, Japan, Britain and Europe, and why they will continue with this unsuccessful strategy.Negligible Demand For Spanish Treasury Bills Leads To Plunge In Auction Bid To Cover From 7.62 To 2.47 In One Month
While Europe continues to bask in the very transitory glow of a rumor driven respite from the now daily collapse, the funding costs rise. And the market is not happy, as confirmed by the just complete Spanish auction of E3.2 billion (E3.5 billion had been targetted) in 77 and 175 Day bills, which were, for all intents and purposes, failures. Summarizing, E1.6b of 77-day bills were sold at an average yield of 1.692% compared to 1.357% on Aug. 23. The Bid-to-cover plunged to a paltry 2.47 compared to a solidly overbooked 7.62 at the last sale. The last six auction average was 1.41% for the interest and 6.46 for bid-to-cover. Spain also sold E1.6 billion 175-day bills at an average yield of 2.665%, half a percent higher compared to the August 23 auction where the country could still raise debt at a cheap 2.187%. Bid-to-cover 3.95 vs 3.60 at last sale. And since this paper has to roll constantly (or between 2 and 6 months), any transitory interest benefits have now been lost and the vicious circle of deteriorating funding will continue to impact short-term debt raises by Spain, which in turn will force primary interest rates to raise again and so ad inf.Venizelos Refuses To Release Bond Swap Data, Confirming Key Precondition To Second Greek Bailout Has Failed
A completely and thoroughly bankrupt Greece has just crossed some imaginary rubicon where it no longer deems it fit to even lie, and instead will simply not report any data. As Bloomberg reports, Greek FM Evangelos Venizelos, never to be confused with Jenny Craig, spoke to reporters in Athens today and told them that while the figures for the bond swap are optimistic, they are strictly confidential and will not be released by the Greek government. Considering that bond tender offer tabulation takes about 24-72 hours in even the most complicated of bankruptcies, this is a tacit admission that Greece has been unable to even complete the simplest of Greek Bailout 2 prerequisites, which is to get its bondholders to agree to an implicit 21% haircut, which is precisely as Zero Hedge predicted when we observed that German banks have sold their bonds to hedge funds which in turn are now holding Greece hostage in exchange for nuisance value. An irrelevant Venizelos also added that the target is to have all new measures passed October end, that austerity measures votes will be separate from a budget vote, and that Germany is to provide all help to stabilize Greece. We are sure the last will be news to tens of millions of German citizens.Guest Post: The Fed Wants You To Beg For QE3
"Solidarity Has Its Limits" As German FinMin Snubs Geithner And Downplays Levered EFSF
In a speech given in Berlin, the ever-vocal German finance minister Wolfgang Schaeuble appeared less than vociferous about the new levered EFSF plan and further lambasted Geithner's 'plan' in as politically correct manner as he could. Bloomberg headlines include:And the kicker in response to questions on Geithner, the pithy response:*SCHAEUBLE SAYS `WILL NOT SPEND OUR WAY' OUT OF CRISIS
*SCHAEUBLE SAYS `SOLIDARITY HAS LIMITS,' REQUIRES RETURN EFFORTS
*SCHAEUBLE SAYS `IMMEDIATE FISCAL REFORMS ARE OF THE ESSENCE'
*SCHAEUBLE SAYS EASIER TO GIVE ADVICE THAN TAKE IT!!!
*SCHAEUBLE SAYS INCREASING EFSF WOULD DAMAGE SOME AAA RATINGS
Frontrunning: September 27
- China’s Developers Face More ‘Severe’ Credit Outlook, S&P Says (Bloomberg)
- Hong Kong’s Tsang Sees ‘Soft Landing’ for Property, Keeps Peg (Bloomberg)
- SEC Eyes Ratings From S&P (WSJ)
- Geithner Predicts Europe Will Step Up on Crisis After Chiding (Bloomberg)
- Big audit firms face Brussels onslaught (FT)
- Fed Officials Express Doubt About Faster Inflation as Tool to Boost Growth (BBG)
- Medvedev fires mutinous finance minister (FT)
- EU urged to probe Hungary mortgage move (FT)
- Anger rises in India over redrawn poverty line (FT)
July Case Shiller Beat And Missed At Same Time Just As Market Was About To Plunge
The
Case Shiller for July, that's right July (does anyone remember that?
that's was before the US was about to go bankrupt due to that whole
flap in Congress over the debt ceiling, nevermind the second European
bankruptcy), is out and it was both better and worse than expected: the
Y/Y print beat at -4.1% on expectations of -4.4%, up from a revised
-4.4%, yet missing on a sequential basis, which was expected to come at
0.1%, instead printing at 0.05%, unchanged from the June's upward
revised M/M 0.04%. In other words, this is not only traditionally late
data, it also confirms that the double dip continued into the months
that saw the market tumble by nearly 15%. Look for substantial drops in
the August and September Case Shiller data.Leverage: Yesterday's Problems, Today's Solution
All the markets continue to bask in the glow of the new improved EFSF. From a low of 1115, the S&P futures are now trading at 1175. A pretty impressive 5% move. Stocks in Europe are doing even better and credit is following along. By now I would have hoped to see some details of this alleged new beast that EFSF has morphed into. While I search for detail all I could see, so far, are denials by Germany and Spain, some support from Austria, and additional rumors of what is to come. Every European politician outside of Germany can say this is a great idea, but if the money man doesn’t go along, is there really a deal? This isn’t a democracy, and only Germany controls German money. There was a brief headline that this new plan could cause S&P to downgrade Germany and France. As a back-up plan, there is talk about letting the EIB do the heavy lifting. Just in case the world wasn’t already controlled by enough 3 letter entities, welcome the EIB to the IMF, ECB, and FED party.EIB Refutes Latest Liesman Rumor
Following closely on the heels of Schaeuble's express concerns over leveraging the EFSF and his AAA rating, the EIB has come out with a direct statement refuting media claims (read Liesman unsourced rumors which served no other reason than to be a pretext for a month end window dressing rally) about the potential involvement of the fund in connection with the EFSF. So if the money man (Germany) and the SPV shell-partner (EIB) are both denying, then who or what is left?Brazil Government Preparing For Greek Default This Week, Valor Reports
And 9:55 am update in which Mantega responds to Valor (and ZH):- MANTEGA SAYS BRAZIL ISN'T PREPARING ANY MEASURE
Is It Virtually Impossible To Land A Job As "Jobs Hard To Get" Responses Hit 28 Year High
While
the fact that the September Conference Board consumer confidence
number missed in September, coming in at 45.4, below expectations of 45,
and a tiny increase from the revised August 45.2, the shocker was in
the responses to "jobs hard to get" category which printed at 50, up
from 48.5 in August, and is now the highest number since 1983!
Yet despite that it can not get a job to save its life, the public
appears to have reverted to Hopium consumption, with the 6 month outlook
jumping to 54 from 52.4, even as the current conditions index declines
from 34.3 to 32.5, and the lowest since January. And a big red sign
for the auto segment, is that Americans expecting to buy a car within 6
months has dropped to just 11.4% from 13% last month. And this even
with GM offering subprime loans to deadbeats left and right.
![[Most Recent Quotes from www.kitco.com]](http://www.kitconet.com/charts/metals/gold/t24_au_en_usoz_2.gif)
![[Most Recent Quotes from www.kitco.com]](http://www.kitconet.com/charts/metals/silver/t24_ag_en_usoz_2.gif)
No comments:
Post a Comment