Submitted by Tyler Durden on 09/23/2011 - 16:47
Copper
And there you have it: CME just hiked gold margins by 21%, silver by 16% and copper by 18%. Mystery solved.
Dear Extended Family,
A quote from CIGA Eric today completely encapsulates what we are experiencing in the gold market:
Our conclusion is:
Market situations like this will be found to have held and created bear traps in several instances of similar pattern action over the past 30 years WITHOUT having continued further down to first major support. The current corrective pattern over the past 23 trading days strongly implies that the move below $1690 would continue on down to the core at $1665 at minimum as first bottom, and in the extreme to $1615, but not below $1584. This will happen prior to exhaustion and a return to the full bull trend.
So far the remaining successive levels of $2450/$2510; $2850/$2900, and $3280/$3330 are not affected.
Gold shares are being impacted by a field of problems as a result of the large short positions held in almost all. They are being taken advantage of today by pressuring the entities in hopes of causing long term holders to collapse in their commitments.
Respectfully,
Jim
Everyone knew they were coming... Just not when. Now that the gold liquidation frenzy has struck we still don't know much if anything: who was it, why, and where did the money go? Some rumors have it as a bank in Central, Eastern Europe unwinding massive PM positions, which if true is paradoxically bullish for gold and silver as reported previously, as it means the already tight liquidity situation in Europe is about to come to a head, possibly as soon as this weekend. Others speculate it was a plain vanilla satisfaction of collateral requirements by a big funds who may or may not be liquidating and who have sizable gold positions. Or, the simplest explanation, was it simply an expectation (and leak) of a gold margin hike? For all these questions and more, as well as to vent over anything and everything, use the following open thread.
At
the end of a dramatic week such as this, when clearly the hope of a
civilized world of buy-the-dip monetary policy-to-the-rescue 'investors'
was somewhat dashed, we take a look at the decimation. Friday appeared
a day of rest for everyone but margin clerks as 'safety' was sold but
nothing appeared to be bought. Financials managed to hold their heads
above water as hope remained that someone would do something this
weekend but as we scan the asset classes - we note that investment grade
credit was the best performer of the day - hardly a signal of strength
- as volumes in equity markets dropped significantly.
UPDATE 1: The fact that the CME hiked margins after-hours seems to be as much a driver of the weakness in gold, silver, and copper and we note that after the equity close, we are seeing both silver and gold up around 1%. They also hiked 30Y which helps explain the coordinated sell-off we discussed earlier.
UPDATE 2: Here they come - Trichet: We Stand Ready to Supply Unlimited Liquidity
For
once the speculators got it right. In the week ended September 20, net
USD futures and options exposure surged by the most in years, with net
non-commercial contracts soaring by a whopping 22,577 contracts to the
highest since April of 2010. The flip trade is a collapse in EUR
sentiment, which saw net exposure plunge by 25,001 from -54,459 to
-79,460, the most bearish sentiment in the European currency has been
since June 2010. Net net: the euro is now massively oversold explaining
why even the smallest of rumors initiates a furious short covering
squeeze. And yes, the next bubble is now not in silver, not in gold, but
in the dollar. The first sign of moderation of European stress, or a
Hilsenrath piece on the next round of QE by the Chairsatan, and watch
the DXY and the various USD pair collapse (and gold surge).
You
are being lied to. There is currently more than sufficient evidence
that indicates that we are either in, or about to be in, a recession.
The last time I made that statement was in December of 2007. In
December of 2008 the National Bureau of Economic Research stated that we
were correct. I don't make statements like that lightly and,
honestly, I hope I am wrong as this is a horrible time for the economy
to relapse. However, the reason that I bring this up is that there
have been numerous analysts and economists stating that the economy
cannot be going into recession due to the spread between various sets
of interest rates. (For the purpose of this report we will focus on the spread between the 1-year Treasury bond and the 10-year Treasury note.) Historically speaking they would be correct and I will explain why.
Silver is getting tossed around like a cork in a (paper) ocean. Next week's COT money flows should provide important information as to the execution of the decline from behind the curtain. It’s a fair assumption that retail money with its tendency to concentrate their position at the wrong time have been carried from the (paper) battlefield on a stretcher. The red circle in the chart below... [[ This is a content summary only. Visit my website for full links, other content, and more! ]]
September 23, 2011, at 1:49 pm
by Jim Sinclair in the category General Editorial |
Print This Post | 
Email This Post
by Jim Sinclair in the category General Editorial |
Print This Post | Email This PostDear Extended Family,
A quote from CIGA Eric today completely encapsulates what we are experiencing in the gold market:
This is a repeat of 2009 – actually even more extreme readings than 2009. We are severely oversold today. Anyone not buying here does not believe in the fundamental story. In my opinion, this will be a huge entry point by 2012.In conversations with Kenny we examined the worst case scenario in terms of the correctness of Eric’s comment with which we both totally agree.
Our conclusion is:
Market situations like this will be found to have held and created bear traps in several instances of similar pattern action over the past 30 years WITHOUT having continued further down to first major support. The current corrective pattern over the past 23 trading days strongly implies that the move below $1690 would continue on down to the core at $1665 at minimum as first bottom, and in the extreme to $1615, but not below $1584. This will happen prior to exhaustion and a return to the full bull trend.
So far the remaining successive levels of $2450/$2510; $2850/$2900, and $3280/$3330 are not affected.
Gold shares are being impacted by a field of problems as a result of the large short positions held in almost all. They are being taken advantage of today by pressuring the entities in hopes of causing long term holders to collapse in their commitments.
Respectfully,
Jim
Gold Liquidations Open Thread
Update: Yep - it was a leak of a margin hike as just confirmed. Which may very well mean nobody actually had to liquidate, just the herd thundered, as it always does, in the wrong diraction. Expect gold to actually rise on this news.Everyone knew they were coming... Just not when. Now that the gold liquidation frenzy has struck we still don't know much if anything: who was it, why, and where did the money go? Some rumors have it as a bank in Central, Eastern Europe unwinding massive PM positions, which if true is paradoxically bullish for gold and silver as reported previously, as it means the already tight liquidity situation in Europe is about to come to a head, possibly as soon as this weekend. Others speculate it was a plain vanilla satisfaction of collateral requirements by a big funds who may or may not be liquidating and who have sizable gold positions. Or, the simplest explanation, was it simply an expectation (and leak) of a gold margin hike? For all these questions and more, as well as to vent over anything and everything, use the following open thread.
When Hope Fades
At
the end of a dramatic week such as this, when clearly the hope of a
civilized world of buy-the-dip monetary policy-to-the-rescue 'investors'
was somewhat dashed, we take a look at the decimation. Friday appeared
a day of rest for everyone but margin clerks as 'safety' was sold but
nothing appeared to be bought. Financials managed to hold their heads
above water as hope remained that someone would do something this
weekend but as we scan the asset classes - we note that investment grade
credit was the best performer of the day - hardly a signal of strength
- as volumes in equity markets dropped significantly.UPDATE 1: The fact that the CME hiked margins after-hours seems to be as much a driver of the weakness in gold, silver, and copper and we note that after the equity close, we are seeing both silver and gold up around 1%. They also hiked 30Y which helps explain the coordinated sell-off we discussed earlier.
UPDATE 2: Here they come - Trichet: We Stand Ready to Supply Unlimited Liquidity
Bullish Dollar Sentiment Surges By Most In Years, As CFTC-Based Rumors Of Euro Demise Are Not Exaggerated
For
once the speculators got it right. In the week ended September 20, net
USD futures and options exposure surged by the most in years, with net
non-commercial contracts soaring by a whopping 22,577 contracts to the
highest since April of 2010. The flip trade is a collapse in EUR
sentiment, which saw net exposure plunge by 25,001 from -54,459 to
-79,460, the most bearish sentiment in the European currency has been
since June 2010. Net net: the euro is now massively oversold explaining
why even the smallest of rumors initiates a furious short covering
squeeze. And yes, the next bubble is now not in silver, not in gold, but
in the dollar. The first sign of moderation of European stress, or a
Hilsenrath piece on the next round of QE by the Chairsatan, and watch
the DXY and the various USD pair collapse (and gold surge).Guest Post: The Yield Spread Is Lying About The Coming Recession
You
are being lied to. There is currently more than sufficient evidence
that indicates that we are either in, or about to be in, a recession.
The last time I made that statement was in December of 2007. In
December of 2008 the National Bureau of Economic Research stated that we
were correct. I don't make statements like that lightly and,
honestly, I hope I am wrong as this is a horrible time for the economy
to relapse. However, the reason that I bring this up is that there
have been numerous analysts and economists stating that the economy
cannot be going into recession due to the spread between various sets
of interest rates. (For the purpose of this report we will focus on the spread between the 1-year Treasury bond and the 10-year Treasury note.) Historically speaking they would be correct and I will explain why.No title needed. Yawn.
Anyone not buying this gift from heaven does not deserve this Epic battle.
I received an email today, and although its the best news Ive heard all day,
I cannot repeat it here just yet.
10 monster boxes purchased today.
Getting physical, physical, baby.
Some screaming liquidation, I agree, but with liquidation comes the green
light go ahead for the manipulation ESPECIALLY on a comex expiry. You would
do the same thing. Congratulate Blythe on a well played CME after hours
margin hike too, she is playing all positions now.
If you are wondering why I'm so chipper, I have now allocat... more »
Detailing a monthly Silver chart
Silver has been the victim of its industrial metal status this week as fears
of a global slowdown in growth slammed the base or industrial metals
complex. Copper, aluminum, lead, zinc, platinum and palladium, to name some
of them, were all hammered sharply lower as traders were heading for the
exits trying to snatch what little might have been left of their profits for
this year.
Under those circumstances, silver was facing far too strong of a headwind to
hope to rely on its status as a monetary metal. The resultant selling has
done some serious damage to the chart.
We now want to... more »
One Last Pre-Weekend Thought:
It's always paid off following Sinclair's wisdom - it will this time too: READ
THIS
We're at the point in the evolution of our system at which it is corrupt
beyond reckoning, right down the Chicago-style political thug in the White
House. Geithner has been laughed at and ridiculed all week in Europe. He has
no shame because I would have gotten the hell out there already.
We've seen this this violent action before and it scares that shit out of
everyone. But those who hold always come out ahead and those who add to
positions come out even more ahead.
The more desperate they get, th... more »
CME hiking Margins on the Precious Metals Monday
As of the close of trading on Monday afternoon, margins for the precious
metals will be increasing.
For Gold
*Old Margin New Margin*
$9,450 $11,475
*Old Maintenance New Maintenance*
$7,000 $8,500
SILVER
*Old Margin New Margin*
$21,600 $24,975
*Old Maintenance New Maintenance*
$16,000 $18,500
I would not read too much into these margin hikes as far as any determined
attempts by the exchange to induce more selling. This time around I bel... more »
Silver Getting Tossed Like A Cork In A (Paper) Ocean
Silver is getting tossed around like a cork in a (paper) ocean. Next week's COT money flows should provide important information as to the execution of the decline from behind the curtain. It’s a fair assumption that retail money with its tendency to concentrate their position at the wrong time have been carried from the (paper) battlefield on a stretcher. The red circle in the chart below... [[ This is a content summary only. Visit my website for full links, other content, and more! ]]
![[Most Recent Quotes from www.kitco.com]](http://www.kitconet.com/charts/metals/gold/t24_au_en_usoz_2.gif)
![[Most Recent Quotes from www.kitco.com]](http://www.kitconet.com/charts/metals/silver/t24_ag_en_usoz_2.gif)
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