Sunday, September 11, 2011

Morgan Stanley Releases The Definitive Gold Stocks Report

Everything you always wanted to know about the future of gold stocks and much more is now answered in this 79 page monster of a report just released by Morgan Stanley, which finally joins the crowd and goes megabullish on gold stocks, by estimating that "currently c.$1500/oz of value is accounted for in reserves in the ground – so, at a $1800-1900/oz gold price, this leaves $400-500/oz for stakeholders, of which shareholders come last (after debt servicing and tax/royalties). While this is a blunt tool, we do believe it provides a good illustration how the sector has historically discounted the spot gold price, but currently does not seem to believe that the current $1800/oz gold price will hold. Thus, we believe an opportunity exists to invest in reserves in the ground rather than bullion (ETF)." So for those who do not wish to chase bullion at record prices (although with currency collapse increasingly imminent, that is probably not a lot), here is MS' conclusion: "Broadly, on stock performance we would make the case for:  i) primarily, operating delivery; hence, which stocks look to offer value in their reserves through volume growth and cost reduction. ii) secondly, in the extremes of gold price movement, operating gearing can, but generally does not, supersede operating delivery; theoretically, higher operating gearing generally implies lower quality assets associated with difficult cost/volume control, hence our caution in looking at operating gearing in isolation from operating delivery and track record. iii) thirdly, valuation (but need to adjust for regional risk factors, by-product discount to rating, track-record and risk of delivery). Apparent valuation anomalies can rapidly be erased by big movements in the gold price or failure to deliver to operational expectations. Stocks screening favourably  on a balanced gold price outcome (and rated OW by Morgan Stanley analysts) include ABG, ABX, BVN, PMTL. While several of the growth stocks (RRS, KGC, GG) screen less well, delivery on the operating expectations would likely be positive stock drivers." Of course, as much as we like gold and its derivatives, Morgan Stanley's outright push is nothing short of an attempt to get investors to move away from physical into a stock certificate deliverable (and hence, "confiscatable") which is ultimately in the hands of the DTC: something, which, with the world on the edge of complete insolvency, we would hardly advocate.





Guest Post: Obama Jobs Plan - "Screw Future Generations"

The Republicans went along with the 2011 payroll tax cut of 2%. They will go along with the 3.1% payroll tax cut. You see, this is how politics works. Since the payroll tax was “temporarily” cut, whoever lets the payroll tax cut expire will be declared a tax hiker. Therefore, the “temporary” payroll tax cut will be extended indefinitely, further impoverishing future generations. Meanwhile, how many jobs did the first payroll tax cut create? How many will the extended and increased payroll tax cut create? None! Obama is using the George Bush tax rebate check method of destroying the country. Both decided to address a government spending problem by reducing revenues. This is par for the course and explains why the economy is teetering on the verge of collapse. The Obama plan consists of $225 billion to screw future generations so we can spend today. It also includes $62 billion to pay people who aren’t employed for 99 more weeks, even though Federal Reserve studies have proven that extending unemployment keeps the unemployment rate 1% higher. Paying people for almost two years while they are not employed is somehow supposed to “create” jobs. Then we have the traditional $70 billion transfer from our Chinese lenders to Timmy Geithner and then into the pockets of state government union workers across the land. Obama needs those votes in 2012. Why should states be required to adapt their budgets to reality when their sugar daddy can keep supplying the

 

 

EURUSD Opens Gap Down To 1.3598


If there is one currency which can move almost 1000 pips lower in 10 days, the EUR it is. After Chinabot gave up on supporting the broken currency, whose viability is only better to the even more doomed US Dollar, but not before an epic run to safety sends the USD into a Volkswagen-like historic short squeeze, and after Goldman openly called for QE from the ECB (and not just the EFSF monetization foreplay which now looks like it may not even pass) the currency has taken out pretty much all support levels, and at the current rate may tumble to sub 1.30 in the next 72 hours. Gold opens in less than 2 hours: the latest response to the flight from fiat should be amusing.

 

 

Jean Claude's Three Straws

It is a messy situation Trichet will be handing over to Draghi on October 31st. After the unnecessary rate hike in spring, what do you do: i) Cut rates in one of the remaining 3 meetings (see table), presenting Draghi with (almost) no room left to cut? ii) Leave rates unchanged and risk being seen as a lame duck as the Euro debt crisis escalates? iii) Agree to be removed early so Draghi can announce “his” first interest rate cut?





The Two Year Anniversary Of "China's Ghost Cities" Epic Keynesian Fail

Two years ago we first covered the flip side of the Chinese real estate "boom" story by presenting the ghost city of Ordos. Today, on the two year anniversary of China's Keynesian miracle being exposed for the whole world to see, Al Jazeera goes back to Ordos to see if anything has changed. And while Paul Krugman may be shocked, shocked, that the Keynesian approach of building for the sake of building does not work not only in the US but pretty much everywhere, it will be no surprise to anyone, that as Al Jazeera concludes, "it's still pretty quiet, but here's the remarkable thing - the building has't stopped, somehow people are convinced that if you keep building, people will come. If not in a few years, then... eventually." And somehow we keep bashing the Fed as the only source of Einsteinian insanity, when it is the same cretins from the Princeton economics department in both the monetary and fiscal arena, who know one thing and one thing only - do whatever ultimately fails, just keep on doing it.




More Obama Lies From Fact Checked Speech







Knowledge is your best weapon...

Dear Casey Subscriber,
If you are anything like me, you've had your share of incredulous reactions while trying to explain the economic reality to your friends, coworkers and relatives.
By “economic reality,” I mean things like:
  • Why the U.S. government is bankrupt and Social Security and Medicare aren’t safe anymore

  • Why we’ve entered the Greater Depression, and what we can expect for the near future

  • Why the housing market is not going back up anytime soon

  • Why owning gold and silver is a must to weather the economic storm

  • Why things will get much, much worse before they get better – and why you need to protect yourself now
In my case, typical reactions I’ve received from the “uninitiated” have ranged from polite withdrawal from the conversation (“Geez, he’s always so negative!”) to an overt rolling of the eyes and a scathing “Here we go again!”
If you’ve absorbed any of our in-depth economic research and market analysis – and ever felt like sharing it – I bet those experiences sound familiar to you.
But now, instead of just telling everyone around you what they need to know to save their assets, you can actually show them. Encourage your brother, cousin, friends, significant other, and colleagues to join you and sign up for our free online event, The American Debt Crisis, at 2 p.m. Eastern time on September 14.
There they will hear the truth straight from the experts’ mouths – from highly acclaimed economists, seasoned investment pros. and highly reputed financial authors.
It’s an old adage that a prophet is not honored in his own land.
It certainly is frustrating when you’ve been, unsuccessfully, trying to convince those nearest and dearest to you. But often all it takes is your words from the mouth of a stranger to cause them to say, “Wow, that’s amazing! I’ve never heard that before!”
Now you can kill two birds with one stone: get your loved ones on your side and help prepare them.
Because what really counts is that as many Americans – and global citizens – are forewarned of what’s to come... and armed with the knowledge how to protect their nest eggs from dwindling away.
Please do them (and yourself) a favor
and copy & paste this link to forward to them:
www.americandebtcrisis.com

www.AmericanDebtCrisis.com

To good investing,
[signature]
Olivier Garret
CEO, Casey Research

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