Tuesday, September 13, 2011

Standard Chartered CEO Says Greek Default Inevitable

Since there is no point anymore in doing any analysis or wasting time thinking, here is the copy and paste of the relevant section from a just released piece in Bloomberg. "Greek Default, Euro Exit Inevitable, Std Chartered CEO Tells Sky. Default, euro exit won’t “necessarily” occur in next 1 or 2 mos., but “quite likely at some stage,” Standard Chartered CEO Gerard Lyons tells Sky News. Greece “not going to pull down Europe” or cause world recession." Actually, the last bit may be a rumor, at least if one remembers what happened to global banking after Lehman was taken down in a "controlled" Chapter 7. Anyway, Johnny 5: take it away.

 

 

Full Retard Rumormill Goes For The Trifecta As Brazil Joins China And Russia In Bailing Out The European Ponzi

Add this from Reuters to today's rumor trifecta to make the day RDA allowance of crazy pills complete:
  • BRICS COUNTRIES IN "VERY PRELIMINARY" TALKS TO COORDINATE PURCHASES OF EURO ZONE SOVEREIGN DEBT - BRAZIL GOV'T SOURCE
And so in one day we have heard rumors of China, Russia and Brazil (in this case"citing a monetary official"... sure beats "unidentified Italian government sources" ahem FT) all bail out Europe, none of which will inevitably happen mind you because these countries aren't governed by idiots, although "idiots" is precisely who trades this market. See the attached chart for the kneejerk reaction to this latest headline.





Rumor Fatigue - BRIC Buying Half-Life Under One Minute


While 30 minutes ago Brazil's Central Bank policy head Mendes spoke in Brasilia saying that the "Euro is less important in Brazil international reserves", and "Brazil seeks reserve currencies with solid fiscal positions", we are now supposed to believe a rumor cited by Reuters that BRICs are setting up for coordinated buying of European peripheral sovereign debt? It appears Rumor Fatigue has taken hold as the market rallied 6pts and then sold it all back within the same minute.

 

 

Dutch Finance Ministry Says Greek Default Is Unavoidable, Immediately Retracts

Even though it has since provoked a firestorm of denials and refutations, the reality is that Dutch media RTLZ probably had some very good sources (certainly better than the FT's yesterday when China was supposed to LBO Italy for the 4th time in 2011) to release the following information, namely that according to the Finance Ministry, the bankruptcy of Greece is inevitable, and that the "question is no longer whether but how Greece goes bankrupt." Additionally, Reuters added that according to Jan Kees de Jager, "We are studying scenarios in secret together with the Dutch central bank (DNB) and also with other countries. We are looking at our own economy, our government finances, the financial sector and consequences for Europe," De Telegraaf added that the "other countries" also included Germany and Deutsche Bank. He said it was difficult to let a country go bankrupt in a controlled way. "Always, if something goes wrong there are effects on other countries, on central banks. So you will have to take into account side-effects. That is precisely the reason why we are looking at different scenarios behind closed doors." A ministry source later confirmed a report on Dutch broadcaster RTL that the scenarios being studied included default by Greece. Of course, in keeping with the European M.O. of spreading a rumor, gauging the market response, and if response is unpleasant, to immediately refute it, Dow Jones and everyone else has since reported  that the Dutch were only kidding and were not calling for an orderly default for Greece. Sure. Just preparing for one. Huge semantic difference there...





Sgt Obama's Lonely Unemployed Record Poverty Club Is Back In Session

Heeeeere's the teleprompter again. Because it was at least 24 hours since he was on TV again spewing gripping rhetoric and doing his hypnotrance: "you must pass this bill...you must pass this bill...you must pass this bill...you must pass this bill..." PS - shot for every time Obama says, "you must pass this bill" or a version thereof.






What's It Going To Take?

Dave in Denver at The Golden Truth - 54 minutes ago
I was chatting with a colleague yesterday who was talking about the tax rates and various aspects of taxation as means of raising revenues or stimulating the economy. I threw napalm on that discussion by pointing out that splitting hairs over the marginal rate isn't going to do anything. If we completely eliminated the Department of Defense - which happens to be the largest employer in the world - we would still be running a spending deficit funding everything else. Later yesterday I was having a heated debate about fiscal policy with someone who is one of the brightest, most well... more » 



Stock Correlations Soar To 97.2%: Here's Why

One of the parallel consequences of the market plunging (although nowhere near as far as it would had central bankers not be ubiquitously present to cushion every blow) in the past month on fears of another Great Financial Crisis, coupled with concerns of global insolvency, has been a surge in stock correlations (if not so much between stocks and other risk assets such as bonds and gold), to the highest point since the Lehman collapse. Putting a number to the "point" - 97.2%. Here is how BNY Convergex' Nicholas Colas summarizes the recent surge in cross sector correlations: "Disparate markets – stocks, bonds, currencies, and the like – have a lot in common lately. Whether they want to or not. Average correlations between the 10 major sectors of the S&P 500 have reached 97.2%, from 82.1% just three months ago. That’s the highest level of such common price action since the Financial Crisis. Gold and silver have continued to provide actual diversification, and Investment Grade bonds are also holding their own in this regard. They are at least moving on their own, rather than lockstep with the rest of the world. The difference between investing in Emerging Markets equities, Developed Markets equities, and High Yield bonds is now effectively zero. We think these high correlations will plague markets through the end of the year, since they are fundamentally caused by worries over European financial market solvency. Those aren’t going away any times soon." Well, they might, if someone actually believes the lies spewed by European bankocrats, who have now reached new lows in dealing with information, by sicing regulators against those who write OpEds. Very soon the dissemination of facts will also be made illegal, but until then, we will likely see correlations continue to trade, and soon hit 1.000 as everything trades in perfect lockstep with every other robot traded "thing."










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