Monday, March 12, 2012

An Administration Gone Rogue

by Dr. Ron Paul, Paul.House.gov:

Have certain parts of the Constitution become irrelevant, as a former Republican leader once told me at a Foreign Affairs Committee hearing? At the time, I was told that demanding a Congressional declaration of war before invading Iraq, as Article I Section 8 of the Constitution requires, was unnecessary and anachronistic. Congress and the president then proceeded without a Constitutional declaration and the disastrous Iraq invasion was the result.
Last week, Obama administration officials made it clear that even the fig leaf of Congressional participation provided by the 2003 “authorization” to use force in Iraq was to be ignored as well. In a hearing before the Senate Armed Services Committee, Defense Secretary Leon Panetta stated clearly and repeatedly that the administration felt it was legally justified to use military force against Syria solely with “international permission”. Such “international permission” could come by way of the United Nations, NATO, or some other international body. Secretary Panetta then told Senator Sessions that depending on the situation, the administration would consider informing Congress of its decision and might even seek authorization after the fact.
Read More @ Paul.House.gov




Collapse Coming–Not Recovery

By Greg Hunter’s USAWatchdog.com  (Revised)

Dear CIGAs,

The way the latest unemployment numbers were reported by the mainstream media (MSM), you would think the Great Recession was over and the United States was solidly on the road to recovery.  The Associated Press reported the numbers by the Bureau of Labor Statistics (BLS) with a story that said, “The United States added 227,000 jobs in February, the latest display of the breadth and strength of the economic recovery. The country has put together the most impressive three months of job growth since before the Great Recession.  The unemployment rate stayed at 8.3 percent. It was the first time in six months it didn’t fall, and that was because a half-million Americans started looking for work.”  (Click here for the complete AP story.)    I don’t see how the MSM can say this one number is “the latest display of the breadth and strength of the economic recovery.”  
Cyclical and structural unemployment are gripping the nation.   Certain jobs are gone forever or, at the very least, for a very long time.  Maybe that’s why millions of people have given up even looking for work.  Forbes.com reported, just a few weeks ago, millions have stopped looking for work, and the government has stopped counting them.  The report said, “In the latest, much celebrated, unemployment report, the labor force participation rate had plummeted to 63.7%, the most rapid decline in U.S. history.  That means that under President Obama nearly 5 million Americans have fled the workforce in hopeless despair.  The trick is that when those 5 million are not counted as in the work force, they are not counted as unemployed either.  They may desperately need and want jobs.  They may be in poverty, as many undoubtedly are, with America suffering today more people in poverty than in the entire half century the Census Bureau has been counting poverty.  But they are not even counted in that 8.3% unemployment rate that Obama and his media cheerleaders were so tirelessly celebrating last week.” (Click here for the complete Forbes.com report.)  
While we are on the subject of unemployment and poverty, the number of people on food stamps jumped to more than 46.5 million in December 2011!  It is a new all-time record.  How can the nation be in a true “recovery” with increasing numbers of Americans on the government dole?  
According to economist John Williams of Shadowstats.com, the latest good news about job creation is distorted with what he calls “massive seasonal adjustments.”  The latest Shadowstats.com report, last Friday, said, “With heavy warping of the seasonal-adjustment process from the effects of the extreme nature of the current downturn, the resulting employment gain and unemployment rate level remain of questionable quality and significance.”  If unemployment were calculated the way BLS did it in 1994 or earlier, the true unemployment rate would top 22% according to Shadowstats.com.  Williams also says, “The outlook for the broad economy remains bleak, despite relatively upbeat February payroll data.  Bank lending remains impaired, while household income has taken a new hit, as indicated in recent reporting.  Separately . . . annual and monthly growth in the broad money supply appears to be stalling, again.  That likely is a further indication of mounting difficulties in the systemic-solvency crisis.”  (Click here to go to the Shadowstats.com home page.)
More…

 

Jim’s Mailbox


Consequences Of Infinite Liquidity CIGA Eric
The charts below illustrate several points about the evolving sovereign debt crisis.
External debt levels and equilibrium price of gold (external debt divided by ounces held United States) continue soar in an increasing comical and disturbing fashion.
China is slowly reducing their exposure to U.S. Treasuries.
Chart 3 (Federal Debt Held by Foreign & International Investors As a % of GDP (FDHBFINGDPR) and the London P.M. Fixed Price of Gold (GOLD)) reveals that there is no plan other than infinite liquidity and debt generation. This system, however, can absorb only so many debt to income (GDP) spikes before it implodes. The latest spike (magenta circled) represents acceleration within an accelerating trend. If that setup doesn’t raise some hairs on the back of your neck, then nothing will. Capital "knows" the assumption of infinite has a nasty habit of turning finite very quickly when confidence evaporates suddenly.
Chart 1: Federal Debt Held by Foreign & International Investors (FDHBFIN) and the Equilibrium Price (FDHBFIN/OZ) clip_image002
Chart 2: Federal Debt Held by Foreign & International Investors (FDHBFIN) Less Mainland China Treasury Holdings and the Equilibrium Price (FDHBFIN/OZ) clip_image004
Chart 3: Federal Debt Held by Foreign & International Investors As a % of GDP (FDHBFINGDPR) and the London P.M. Fixed Price of Gold (GOLD) clip_image006
More…

 

In The News Today


Dear CIGAs,

The way to handle a crisis is simple: Lie about the details and size.
I spent the day in NYC at meeting on corporate affairs. We were sitting in a well appointed board room attended by twelve articulate, informed, mature, experienced investors and traders of the markets.
One of the attendees asked if anyone knew what the number was on the CDS triggered by the ISDA. The question was met with laughter as another attendee suggested somewhere between $3.5billion and $37 trillion.
It appears the newest method of overcoming a crisis is simply to consider it diminutive. You have to hand it to the economic propagandists. The Greek default was fluffed off as nothing much to be concerned about according to the CDS figures. The problem is logic says the number is a fabrication and there is much more to come out of Greece as that is not the only bond issue upon which payments are required.
CIGA Frank X sent me the following note as the most recent explanation of the numbers.
The brightest mind at our meeting today cautioned "There is much more to come out of Greece."


Mr. Sinclair:
If the following is accurate, we may have our answer regarding payments on credit default swaps. "The ISDA has called a credit event ON BONDS THAT DID NOT VOLUNTARILY SIGN UP for a 70% plus haircut."  I believe I saw there was an 86% "voluntary" participation rate in the deal.  This would suggest "our friends" would only be liable for 14% of the CDS’s issued.  We all know there has to be a very larger loophole.
Your friend,
Frank


Gold action was not bad in light of the "no crisis" crisis of sovereign debt default. $1700 now is acceptable. Let’s see if gold re-enters the 1700s as more people realize that this crisis was buried in the details.
I intend to be in New York City tomorrow for three more meetings and maybe Tanzania next week.
Respectfully,
Jim


Jim Sinclair’s Commentary

The following comment from Credit Suisse differs somewhat from MSM reports on the Chinese economy

Raw material demand holding up
The first tranche of Chinese trade data for the month of February was released over the weekend. This included figures for imports of iron ore, steel, copper, aluminum scrap, crude oil, refined oil products and soybeans. Given that distortions from the lunar new year still linger, we focus on the average of January and February, which suggest that[1][1]:
·         Despite continued anecdotes of physical weakness, commodity imports have remained very strong.  In part this no doubt reflects opportunistic restocking.  But it also suggests that reports of weakness have been exaggerated.
·         Crude oil imports have been very strong so far in 2012 (Exhibit 2).
·         Copper imports remained firm in February.
·         Chinese iron ore imports have softened marginally over recent months, although in part this may be due to the weather-related disruptions to shipments from Australia in January (Exhibit 1).
·         Soybean imports, averaged over January and February, also returned towards the high levels seen in Q4 2011.




Jim Sinclair’s Commentary

Here is another guarantee of "QE to Infinity."

US Budget Deficits – A picture of a coming crisis.
clip_image002


Jim Sinclair’s Commentary

Our friends up north have distinguished themselves by default. Not being risk takers by nature, the OTC derivative madness only stung them slightly. That plus little history of not invading other nations and it might just be right.

Charts That Count: Will Canada be the Only Investment Grade G7 Issuer by 2040? Written by Agcapita
Monday, 12 March 2012 08:49

According to research by SocGen, by 2040 Canada will be the only G7 country with investment grade sovereign debt. By as early as 2030 the US, France, Italy and Japan will all lose investment grade status.  To put this into perspective this means that in less than 2 decades the debt of countries currently representing approximately 50% of global GDP will be ineligible for investment by the smallest municipal pension fund. 
Japan is actually expected to lose investment grade status in less than 10 years and looking at the charts below this should not come as a surprise when it happens. BTW – Japan by itself represents almost 10% of global GDP.
Clearly some profound changes are coming to the sovereign debt markets and most importantly to the idea of the "risk free" rates of return that can be found there. As one wag recently described it, sovereign debt no longer represents "risk free return" but rather "return free risk".
clip_image004





Jim Sinclair’s Commentary

Before new challenges explore you? I am 71 and the days of the week I don’t like are Saturday and Sunday.
I understand he is 46. He is tad young for retirement.

CME Group CEO to retire at end of 2012 CHICAGO, March 12 | Mon Mar 12, 2012 4:35pm EDT
(Reuters) – CME Group Inc said its chief executive officer Craig Donohue will step down at year end, when his contract expires.
He will be replaced by current president Phupinder Gill, the exchange operator said. Executive Chairman Terrence Duffy will take on the additional role of president, the company said.
Donohue has run the CME since 2004, steering the owner of the Chicago Mercantile Exchange through the acquisitions of its two largest rivals — the Chicago Board of Trade and the New York Mercantile Exchange — and a global expansion that saw the establishment of a London-based clearinghouse.
Donohue, who has worked at CME for 23 years, called his decision "bittersweet," and added that he is "ready to explore new challenges."
More…





Jim Sinclair’s Commentary

Today US business is measured by what you stole minus the fine you paid.
You can be sure the boys did well on this bamboozle.

Department of Justice
Office of Public Affairs
FOR IMMEDIATE RELEASE
Monday, March 12, 2012

$25 Billion Mortgage Servicing Agreement Filed in Federal Court
View the court documents.
WASHINGTON – The Justice Department, the Department of Housing and Urban Development (HUD) and 49 state attorneys general announced today the filing of their landmark $25 billion agreement with the nation’s five largest mortgage servicers to address mortgage loan servicing and foreclosure abuses.
The federal government and state attorneys general filed in U.S. District Court in the District of Columbia proposed consent judgments with Bank of America Corporation, J.P. Morgan Chase & Co., Wells Fargo & Company, Citigroup Inc. and Ally Financial Inc., to resolve violations of state and federal law.    
The unprecedented joint agreement is the largest federal-state civil settlement ever obtained and is the result of extensive investigations by federal agencies, including the Department of Justice, HUD and the HUD Office of the Inspector General (HUD-OIG), and state attorneys general and state banking regulators across the country.
The consent judgments provide the details of the servicers’ financial obligations under the agreement, which include payments to foreclosed borrowers and more than $20 billion in consumer relief; new standards the servicers will be required to implement regarding mortgage loan servicing and foreclosure practices; and the oversight and enforcement authorities of the independent settlement monitor, Joseph A. Smith Jr.
The consent judgments require the servicers to collectively dedicate $20 billion toward various forms of financial relief to homeowners, including: reducing the principal on loans for borrowers who are delinquent or at imminent risk of default and owe more on their mortgages than their homes are worth; refinancing loans for borrowers who are current on their mortgages but who owe more on their mortgage than their homes are worth; forbearance of principal for unemployed borrowers; anti-blight provisions; short sales; transitional assistance; and benefits for service members.
More…





Jim Sinclair’s Commentary

Do you think Rubin knows about the hard fall in utilization of US dollars as the international settlement currency?

Rubin Says He Has Too Many Dollars 13 Years After Departing U.S. Treasury By Nina Mehta
Friday, March 9, 2012

NEW YORK — Robert Rubin, who as U.S. Treasury secretary in the 1990s promoted a stronger dollar, said he has too much of his personal investments in the currency.
A "disproportionate amount" of his assets is in cash and he "should be more allocated away from the dollar," Rubin, 73, said yesterday in a speech at the TradeTech conference in New York. He said he also was "greatly overweighted" in private equity and had investments in hedge funds.
Rubin, who served in President Bill Clinton’s administration between holding senior jobs at Goldman Sachs Group Inc. and Citigroup Inc., had a so-called strong-dollar policy as Treasury secretary that successors followed. He said yesterday that his support for Federal Reserve quantitative easing has waned since the initial round, known as QE1.
More…





Jim Sinclair’s Commentary

A Porter Stansbury & Company comment on the continuing drop of international dollar utilization.
This is the Kahuna for a Reserve Currency by Default.

New Proof the U.S. Dollar is No Longer "King" By Dr. Steve Sjuggerud
Monday, March 12, 2012

We just got a glimpse of the "End of America" over the weekend… from the place you’d least expect: Iceland.
Iceland might seem the least likely place to signal just about anything in the global financial system… When it comes to international finance, Iceland is barely a flea on an elephant. (Its economy is 1/5000th of the world’s economy.)
But I see something Iceland is doing as a warning sign about the future of the U.S. dollar and the end of the "dollar standard" – what my colleague Porter Stansberry calls the "End of America.
More…





Jim Sinclair’s Commentary

From a trickle to a torrent. Be patient.

UPDATE 4-Harrisburg, Pa. to skip two debt payments
Sat Mar 10, 2012 1:54am EST
By Hilary Russ

(Reuters) – Pennsylvania’s distressed capital city, Harrisburg, will skip $5.3 million of debt payments due next week, the first time the city has defaulted on its general obligation bonds, to ensure there is enough cash to fund vital services.
Pennsylvania’s capital of 50,000 people is mired in $326 million of debt due to the expensive retrofits and repairs of its troubled trash incinerator.
"Although this default on general obligation bonds is unfortunate, I don’t think it’s going to hold up the process for proceeding under the recovery plan," Receiver David Unkovic said.
The state tapped Unkovic to serve as receiver, and he devised a recovery plan that includes the proposed sale or lease of the city’s major assets, including parking garages and the incinerator itself.
Commonwealth Court President Judge Bonnie Leadbetter on Friday approved the plan, noting that it may change with more investigation from the receiver.
Holders of the affected bonds and notes do have some protection because principal and interest payments are insured by Ambac Assurance Corp., Unkovic said.
More…


Broken Promises: Pensions All Over America Are Being Savagely Cut Or Are Vanishing Completely

from The Economic Collapse Blog:

How would you feel if you worked for a state or local government for 20 or 30 years only to have your pension slashed dramatically or taken away entirely? Well, this exact scenario is playing out from coast to coast and in the years ahead millions of elderly Americans are going to be affected by broken promises and vanishing pensions. In the old days, things were much different. You would get hired by a big company or a government institution and you knew that the retirement benefits that they were promising you would be there when you retired in a few decades. Unfortunately, we have now arrived at a time when government institutions and big companies have promised far more than they are able to deliver, and “pension reform” has become one of the hot button issues all over the nation. Many Americans that have been basing their financial futures on their pensions are waking up one day and finding that their pensions are either gone or have been cut back dramatically. According to Northwestern University Professor John Rauh, the latest estimate of the total amount of unfunded pension and healthcare obligations for state and local governments across the United States is 4.4 trillion dollars. America is continually becoming a poorer nation and all of that money is simply not going to magically materialize somehow. So where is that 4.4 trillion dollars going to come from? Well, either pension benefits are going to have to be cut a lot more all over America or taxes will need to be raised dramatically. Either way, we are all going to feel the pain of these broken promises.
Read More @ TheEconomicCollapseBlog.com




The Dangers of Ideology

by Jeff Nielson, Bullion Bulls Canada:

Labels and dogma sabotage communication, and thus they sabotage understanding. However these mental short-cuts undermine our intellects and analysis in very different manners. Any/every label is a simplistic representation of what it portrays, with the exception of totally generic labels/nouns.
As a general example, if someone saw me walking through a crowd of people they might label me “that tall man”, or “that bald man”. Either label doesn’t come remotely close to identifying what I’m all about as a person. However, if someone were to label me a capitalist or a communist, they have engaged in a very different type of simplification.
They have attached a discrete set of intellectual properties/qualities to me. Some of these properties may be accurate, all of them could be accurate, or none of them could be applicable. Because these traits are not tangible, it is impossible to discern if that label is partially correct, entirely correct, or totally inapplicable. Thus as soon as we begin to introduce such labels into any discussion we immediately “muddy the waters” intellectually, and undermine any message or analysis we are attempting to convey.
Read More @ BullionBullsCanada.com




Former CIA Officer Michael Scheuer on the Economics of War with Iran





Silver the Restless Metal

by William Bancroft, MarketOracle.co.uk:

Silver is a much smaller market than the gold market and quality research about the poor man’s gold can be less easy to find. One academic who does stand out though is the late Professor Roy Jastram, whose works on gold lead him to an investigation into silver’s monetary history and record. His book ‘Silver: the restless metal’ is much cited by silver experts like David Morgan, but being out of print is now not that easy to get hold of. The Amazon book markets in the US and UK were trading at >$140 when we looked, so we headed down to the British Library in London to get hold of a copy. Published in 1981, this book is a look at silver’s recorded monetary history with a forward look at what the future might hold for the silver price.
The historical depth of data used in the compiling of this book is impressive. The main historical analysis focuses on England and the USA, and the statistical story of silver begins in England in 1273. Although American data begins later, this monetary analysis seeks to separate periods of inflation and deflation, has some interesting findings.
Read More @ MarketOracle.co.uk




The Bernank’s Zero Interest Rate Policy Turns Out To Have a Big Hidden Cost To U.S. Savers

by Ira Stoll, NYSun.com:
When I was collecting my annual tax forms to send to my accountant earlier this month, I couldn’t find one — the one called the Form 1099-INT. That’s the form I’ve gotten in past years from banks or mutual fund companies to report interest I’ve received on bank accounts or money market funds.
The form didn’t seem to be downloadable from the bank or mutual fund Web sites, either, so I finally called up and asked a call center representative where my form 1099-INT was. Wearily, she explained that the bank doesn’t have to issue the form if an account generates less than $10 in annual interest. Lots of other callers, she said, had been asking the same question, and getting the same response.
It’s not that I have less money in the bank than I used to. Okay, maybe a little less. The point, though, is that the Federal Reserve’s zero interest rate policy — “zirp,” for short — means that whatever I do have in the bank isn’t generating much interest. And that’s part of the reason I’ve got less money in those bank accounts.
Read More @ NYSun.com




James Turk: Why Army of New Buyers Will be Entering Gold & Silver

from King World News:
With many investors worried about the recent action in gold and silver, today King World News interviewed James Turk out of Spain. Turk told King World News that an army of new buyers is going to enter the gold and silver markets. But first, here is what Turk had to say about the situation in Greece: “Greece remains a mess. All the bailout means is that the country has increased its debt by $30 billion euros. The Greeks couldn’t repay what they already owe and there is no way this new debt is going to be repaid either. Greece’s problem, as well as other over-indebted countries, means that we should continue to focus on precious metals.”
James Turk continues: Read More @ KingWorldNews.com




Federal Reserve Stress Test Outline










 

FBI Director “Isn’t Sure” Whether Americans Can Be Assassinated On U.S. Soil?

The Treason Clause of the U.S. Constitution specifically delineates what process should be taken when dealing with American citizens who are accused of becoming enemy combatants against their own country. This clause does NOT allow the federal government to assassinate them under any pretense whatsoever. What it does allow for, is due process, the requirement of at least two plausible witnesses, and a jury of their peers to hear both sides of the case. What the Bush and Obama administrations have done over the past decade is very carefully craft a judicial “grey area” in which the law is left open to very broad interpretation, and, they have circumvented civil liberties by attempting to re-categorize certain activities and undesirables using national security and military protocols. Ultimately, this feeds an atmosphere not of order but of lawlessness on the part of the political machine. Legislation like the Patriot Act, the NDAA, and the executive option of assassination of American citizens, completely removes the foundational pillar of innocence until proven guilty. Leadership must be bound by SPECIFIC legal guidelines of what it can and cannot do. The law has to apply to government, even more so than the citizenry, otherwise, the balance of power is lost, and so is our nation.Read More @ Alt-Market.com

 



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