Friday, March 2, 2012

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The Two Economic Clutch Type Events Of This Period


My Dear Extended Family,

The history of this period will focus attention on two economic clutch type events. These events will have mandated the need for the construction of a new monetary system utilizing a virtual reserve currency traded only by central banks. This reserve currency will be related to gold via a global Western world M3.
An economic clutch type event is one that by its occurrence allows the world to shift gears and change into a new economic velocity and direction.
The first economic clutch event took place when the decision was made that the US Federal Reserve and US Treasury would not support a rescue of the prestigious investment firm of Lehman Brothers. By doing this, they threw that institution and all of its transactions in which it was the deficit other party into default via bankruptcy.
Before then the entire OTC derivative debacle had a simple but extremely controversial solution. The tactic would have been similar to the means of nullifying the effect of the historic failure of the Savings and Loan Institutions during the last great housing recession. This at hand solution was to net the entire global derivative problem into a singular institutions named the Derivative Bank. At that time all OTC derivatives which were established would be returned to the instance of establishment when obligations netted almost zero. It was the institution of Lehman as a bankruptcy that removed the ability to net out to near zero from the daisy chain of global derivatives. To bring the daisy chain of OTC derivatives to net the winner would have to place their paper winnings into the pool and the paper losers would have placed their paper losses back into the pool. This would have reduced the entire loss to only part of the earnings on the banking institution from 1991 (the birth of the derivative use globally) rather than the more than now 20 trillion dollars worth of liquidity required to fund the winners who have benefited mightily from that windfall we financed.
The forced flushing of Lehman Brothers is therefore the economic clutch event that brought quantitative easing to provide the rescue funds to finance the winnings of the global Western world financial system. The downshift was from 5th gear to 1st gear that nearly blew up the world economic engine.
We now have had the 2nd Western world economic clutch event that will shift the gears directly from the plodding along in 1st gear economically into reverse gear, therein blowing the transmission and engine simultaneously. This event is the ISDA blessing of the credit event which reduced the value of Greek debt to its holders by 70% without triggering a default. They have now made it virtuous to walk away from the once lest risk loans, loans to Western governments. Such a walk away is now deemed a credit event, not the dirty D word, default.
A pattern of action has been set in place now which takes QE, the gift from Lehman’s economic clutch event, to QE to infinity, the direct result of the Greek economic clutch event that was declared via the International Swaps and Derivative Association. These Gods of Mammon declared 70% of the Greek sovereign debt to be valueless without guilt, sin or consequences.
Replacing the lost value from the sovereign credit event (non-default) in this paper selectively to the banking system makes unlimited creation of liquidity an act of virtue and blessedness.
To assume that other nations facing the same problems will not wish the same treatment is madness. To assume the private sector facing the same problems will not demand the same treatment is madness. Therefore QE to infinity is now deemed an act of virtue and blessedness.
A 70% haircut in the value of the Greek sovereign debt does not constitute a credit event defined as a credit default according to the most powerful financial entity on the planet, the ISDA. This group is more financially influential than governments today. This decision by the revered members of the Association’s Determinations Committee has acted to prevent the notional value of all the credit default swaps, an OTC derivative, from becoming real value as would occur if the CDSs were called upon to function.
The ISDA has, according to MSM, taken offense to being described as secretive in its proceedings. The ISDA said minutes of the meeting of the committee would not be publicly distributed as the decision was unanimous.
What has occurred in what is now described as “the successful handling of the Greek problem” by the ECB is in fact a total disaster for mankind in its introduction of QE to Infinity as the blessed settlement to a problem that now is more severe than it was prior to the Lehman event. That problem is that the mountain of OTC derivative has not been attended to, but rather has grown to include the size of all Western world sovereign debt as it is all western sovereign debt that is now threatened by an event of default on a national level. That will simply occur regardless of whatever the ISDA says. Much of it will not be paid, period.
This enfranchised QE to infinity sets a floor via Chinese gold acquisitions to any reaction in price. Alf Field’s price objective of gold at $4500 is by this 2nd economic clutch event now in the crosshairs of the gold price.
Gold prices staying high have now been guaranteed. Further to that, those intelligently managed gold producers internationally will shift to dividend payers of note, transforming the gold industry into the utility type equity of the future. Opinions expressed to the opposite are simple exercises in economic ignorance.
Gold’s price reactions, when they do occur, will be violent and very short lived. This is fact.

Respectfully,
James Sinclair



In The News Today


Many of life’s failures are people who did not realize how close they were to success when they gave up. –Thomas Edison


Jim Sinclair’s Commentary
For your information.




Jim Sinclair’s Commentary

“Business is getting globally better so reliance on QE may not be as required."


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Jim Sinclair’s Commentary

Trends start as isolated events and develop into torrents. The following is such an event.
All of this fits into the declining utilization of the US dollar in settlement.

Brazil declares new ‘currency war’ By Samantha Pearson in São Paulo
March 1, 2012 9:53 pm

Brazil has declared a fresh “currency war” on the US and Europe, extending a tax on foreign borrowings and threatening further capital controls in an effort to protect the country’s struggling manufacturers.
Guido Mantega, the finance minister who was the first to use the controversial term in 2010, said the government would not “sit by passively” as developed nations continue to pursue expansionary monetary policies at the expense of Brazil.
“When the real appreciates, it reduces our competitiveness. Exports are more expensive, imports are cheaper and it creates unfair competition for businesses in Brazil,” he said on Thursday after announcing changes to the so-called IOF tax.
In a presidential decree, the government extended the existing 6 per cent financial transactions tax on overseas loans maturing in up to three years. Previously, the levy was applied only to loans with maturities of under two years.
President Dilma Rousseff later weighed in on the debate, vowing to defend Brazilian industry and stop developed countries’ policies from causing the “cannibalisation” of emerging markets.
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Jim Sinclair’s Commentary

The most important economic event of 2012 is the deceleration of international use of the dollar in settlement.
This decline in utilization will have a major impact on the dollar as the reserve currency simply now by default.

China ditches the dollar (sort of) March 2, 2012 10:00 am by Simon Rabinovitch
China has earned a reputation as a hypocritical investor over the past few years. It has repeatedly warned the US that quantitative easing was debasing the dollar, only to turn around and plough even more of its vast foreign wealth into dollar-denominated assets.
But perhaps those warnings weren’t so hollow after all. The latest data from the US Treasury suggests that China has in fact executed a major diversification away from the dollar.
The Wall Street Journal’s Tom Orlik has parsed the numbers to produce quite a startling revelation. The portion of China’s foreign exchange reserves invested in dollars appears to have fallen from 65 per cent at the end of June 2010 to 54 per cent a year later.
These figures are unavoidably rough. China does not publish the composition of its $3.2tn foreign exchange reserves and the US is one of the few countries to give a breakdown of which foreigners hold its assets.
However, Orlik is an authority on Chinese economic data and his estimates are as good as any out there. The point is not that China has been selling dollars; rather, it appears to have been accumulating them at a slower rate and instead investing much more in other currencies.
This evidence of diversification raises two intriguing points.
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Fractal Analysis: Gold to $3,500 this year still likely despite crash
Technical analysis sees the overall strong upward trend in the gold price very much intact despite yesterday’s big falls in gold and silver prices.
Author: Goldrunner
Posted:  Thursday , 01 Mar 2012

As we have discussed in a previous article, our Fractal Model suggests the wave for Gold in US Dollars will sweep up into the $3500 to $3600 area into the mid-year time-frame. The leading edge of that time-frame begins in May and extends out for a few months.  A potential for Gold to spike to a $3900 extended fib level exists. Like all parabolic moves in Gold, the late stages create the biggest price movements. Personally, I would be happy with a huge Gold run up to the $3200 level.
Our description of the Gold tsunami wave to come this year as a result of the huge wave of Dollar Inflation initiated by the $600 Billion US Dollars sent to Europe back in December of 2011 is beginning to be noticed by the markets. This is a very important "point of recognition."
The fundamentals for this wave in gold are as follows:
The massive world debt load demands that we either see a deflationary depression; or that we devalue the debt by devaluing the paper currencies.  The politicians have chosen to dramatically devalue the paper currencies.
The Federal Reserve is the only Central Bank with the right to print to infinity, thus, US Dollar printing will remain the leader going forward.
Gold moves almost directly inverse to the value of the Dollar.  Thus, the acceleration of Dollar Devaluation will drive the price of $Gold in its accelerating parabolic climb.  (The USD Index has little to do with the "value of the Dollar" as we will soon show via "The Fractal Dollar" in a different writing.)
This current leg of Dollar Printing via in the $600 Billion Dollars sent to the European Central Bank in a swap arrangement back in December of 2011 is just the start of this wave with Dollar printing demands to increase the debt ceiling, to cover losses by Fannie and Freddie, to continue to pay extended unemployment insurance benefits, and so on.  Yet, the "lowly sum" of $600 Billion of Dollar Printing via QE drove Gold up to the $1920 level, and that much kicked off this round.
Debt monetization via QE sends no new Dollars directly into the economy since the newly printed Dollars go directly from Uncle Sam’s hands to cover the item listed, above.  Thus, these newly printed Dollars only "replace Dollars" that were never allotted for all of the above items and other responsibilities like the unfunded Social Security Funds and Federal Pensions.  As such, the economy is not directly helped by the new Dollar printing.  As the economy continues to deteriorate it demands an acceleration of new Dollars to be printed.  It’s like a cat chasing its own tail.
The US needs to devalue the US Dollar to the point that the debt is devalued to manageable level.  The Dollar is devalued against "relatively constant valued Gold"; just like the late 70′s when Gold went parabolic.  Unfortunately, the massive amount of Dollar printing this time around could not be done via the loan multiplier system where the new Dollars go directly into the economy.  So Dollar creation via direct debt monetization, QE, had to be done after the loan multiplier system was "blown out" in 2007 and 2008.
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Jim Sinclair’s Commentary

Now add global QE to infinity as both function under a barrage of MOPE by MSM that would make Goebles cring.

Gold can scale new peaks without QE springboard Thu Mar 1, 2012 5:25pm GMT
By Amanda Cooper

LONDON, March 1 (Reuters) – Gold can still make new highs this year, even as the Federal Reserve shows no sign of continuing market-sweetening bond purchases and the European Central Bank hints it won’t supply any more half-trillion euro sugar rushes.
Gold lost nearly 5 percent on Wednesday in its biggest-one day fall since mid-December after Fed Chairman Ben Bernanke issued a downbeat assessment of the U.S. economy, but did not spell out that there would be more quantitative easing, the anchoring of bond yields through government debt purchases.
The ECB, which has loaned over a trillion euros in two roughly equal-sized portions of low-rate, highly-attractive cheap cash to commercial banks to encourage lending and avert recession in the euro zone, has warned the financial sector not to get hooked on these offerings.
Low interest rates and ample liquidity provide a favourable backdrop for gold, which can thus compete more effectively for investor cash against stocks, bonds or currencies that bear yields or dividends that can be eroded by loose policy.
Gold has doubled in price since the Fed embarked on its $2.5 trillion bond-buying spree in late 2008 and is still up 10 percent so far this year around $1,720.00 an ounce, further underpinned by the U.S. central bank’s commitment to leave rates unchanged until at least late 2014.  
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What Caused Silver’s Take-Down? (SLV, AGQ, ZSL, GLD, PSLV, SIVR) ETF Daily News
That’s what happened, today,” 40-year bullion market veteran James Sinclair told King World News (KWN) on Thursday. “Mainstream media put the emphasis on …



Gold Chart comments

Trader Dan at Trader Dan's Market Views - 1 hour ago
The Daily Chart is pretty clear as to the larger resistance and support levels. Those remain the same as they had been previous to the strong upside moves on Monday and Tuesday of this week. The sell off was contained on the downside by the same level support that has held for over a month now. Value buyers continue to surface near and just below the $1700 level. Reports of very strong increases in physical offtake are surfacing out of Asia on such dips in price. This buying is not of the nature that it chases prices higher; that requires the momentum crowd (hedge funds in particu... more »

Friday Funnies

Dave in Denver at The Golden Truth - 4 hours ago
* "Over the past several decades, we have witnessed numerous examples of serious lawbreaking on the part of our most powerful political and financial leaders with no consequences of any kind. ..[T]he current consensus among journalists and politicians is that...criminal prosecutions are simply not appropriate for the country's elites" (Gerald Greenwald, "With Liberty and Justice For Some"). *I don't know if I should laugh or cry when I read this. Quite frankly, for as incompetent and corrupt as Tim Geithner is, Eric Holder makes Geithner look like an amateur. I thought W's Attor... more » 

Silver retreats from Resistance but holding Support

Trader Dan at Trader Dan's Market Views - 7 hours ago
Silver bulls could not take the metal through the resistance zone near $35.50 so the market has now retreated lower as longs take profits and some new shorts sell against that level. Support remains down near the $34 level and the spike low from Wednesday's wild takedown.



Is The ECB Choking On Its Own Liquidity As Spain’s Economy Grinds To A Halt?

 

Former Goldman, JP Morgan Banker Warns Hedge Funds To Accept Coercive Greek Exchange Or Else

In the neverending saga that is the Greek exchange offer we have a new and very important player: the head of the Greek debt management agency, Petros Christodoulou, who is now actively threatening any Greek hold out hedge funds against doing what is in their LPs’ best interests (suing Greece and the EU and holding out for par recoveries – as discussed here), by using not only the now trite and idiotic Mutual Assured Destruction clause which only those stuck in 2008 believe is remotely credible, but by advising hedge funds (which are actively forming ad hoc hold out committees as we speak, just as we predicted 6 weeks ago) that “there is just no money for holdouts…We are prepared for legal challenges but the risk here is that people are trying to be too smart.” Oh, so now if one does what is in their interest, and dare hold out against collectivist fascist interests, they are “trying to be smart.” We wonder if Mr. Christodoulou learned such brute force negotiating tactics at one of his former employers: JP Morgan or Goldman That’s right – as we wrote over two years ago, the man who is now negotiating for Greece’s and Europe’s life (because a failed PSI will not only trigger CDS, more importantly it will result in an out of control default of Greece and likely its exist from the Euro and the Eurozone – two things that Germany would be delighted to see) is a former employee of the two companies that just so happens are the co-chairmen of the US Treasury Borriwng Advisory Committee, or as we have also called it before, “The Supercommittee That Really Runs America.” Is the pattern finally emerging? Read More @ ZeroHedge

 

Erik Townsend: Expect A US Price Shock As Black Swans Come Home to Roost

 

The Economic Crisis is a Sideshow to the Real Issue

by Monty Pelerin, EconomicNoise.com:

The world is changing and few people understand the implications. Old rules and guidelines which worked for generations no longer apply. Profound changes, termed “discontinuities” by the late Peter Drucker, have obsoleted them. For those accustomed to linear change, there is a new normal. Mr. Drucker described a discontinuity as a change so profound that normal extrapolation of the past would produce misleading forecasts.
The most profound change the world faces is the future role of government in relationship to its citizens. Here are a few of the unsettled issues:
Read More @ EconomicNoise.com

 

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